Lethal Heating: February 2018

28/02/2018

Need To Explain To People What Climate Change Means In Daily Life: UN Environ Chief

Times of India - Press Trust of India

Executive Director of the United Nations Environment Programme, Erik Solheim.

NEW DELHI: United Nations environment chief Erik Solheim has said spouting "doom and gloom" while talking about climate change will not work and stressed that there was a need to present it in a "simpler" language that explains to people what it really means for them in their daily lives.
He also noted that plastic pollution is similar to climate change and if steps are not taken to curb it now, reversing it will be "almost impossible".
As far as India is concerned, he said, it views environmental issues very much as a moral obligation and has got what it takes to lead the world into this change.
Solheim said a lot of people find the topic of climate change "boring".
"The problem with climate change is that it's a long-term phenomenon involving some quite complex science. It does not surprise me that a lot of people find the topic boring, and frankly we are never going to bore people into action. And if we continue to spout doom-and-gloom, then people just switch off," he said.
He said that when the issue of climate change is discussed mostly the focus has been on the problem and the risks and that needed to change. "People want to see solutions, and to understand how they can contribute. It is time for a global mass movement for the environment, one that has never been seen before."
"For this to happen, we have to speak in a different language that is simpler and breaks down the science to explain to people what climate change really means for them, in their daily lives, here and now," the executive director of the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) told PTI.
"We have to make it a dinner table conversation," he said, "in other words, we need to help people connect with this issue in a way that makes it personal, and not abstract."
It could be about things like house prices, the cost of insurance policies, the impact on food prices or the link to mass migration, he said.
On the issue of plastic pollution, he said it has been caused by "laziness and a failure" of imagination and innovation which needs to change. He said an astounding amount of plastic is produced every year, much of which is often used for a few seconds and discarded.
"Plastic pollution is similar to climate change. If we don't step on the brakes now, it will be almost impossible to reverse."
He pointed out that this year an estimated 360 million tonnes of plastic will be produced and one-third of this will be non-recyclable.
"So imagine where this plastic is going. It is in our oceans and water bodies. It is in landfills and on our beaches. This year World Environment Day will bring the focus on plastic pollution, calling on people all over the world to 'refuse what you cannot re-use'," he said.
Tackling plastic pollution requires one to make a big push on three fronts, he said.
Firstly, people need to know that there are many simple steps they can take to reduce their own plastic footprint like "do we really need straws or apples wrapped in copious amounts of plastic? We don't and we can change that."
"Second, 40 per cent of used plastic currently goes to landfill, when it could serve countless other uses. We need to recycle and re-use whatever we can. Thirdly, and this is where business comes in, we need to look at the whole life of a product and our consumption and trade systems."
"It is no longer possible for us to design products that are thrown away immediately after use," he said. "We need to re-think designs...and there are tremendous opportunities for businesses here."

Solheim was in India for a week where among others, he signed a letter of intent on India hosting the World Environment Day on June 5.
Talking about efforts being made in India in this direction, he expressed his delight that the country is the global host of World Environment Day 2018 and will be leading the push to save the oceans and the planet.
"India has very high rates of recycling, and in recent years, some of the biggest citizen action movements have happened in this country- for example, the Versova beach clean up in Mumbai," he said.
"So India has what it takes to lead the world into this change," he said.
"It is a booming economy with the innovation and business expertise to change the way we make and use products. And it is a country that views environmental issues very much as a moral obligation, to give back to people, nature and the world," he added.

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The Art Of Climate Change Gallery 4: What Can We Do To Address Climate Change?

Environmental Graphiti

Environmental Graphiti® is a venture that uses art to dramatize the critical science of climate change in an effort to expand public awareness of this urgent issue.
ART makes the science more accessible. Science makes the art more meaningful. Together they tell the story of climate change in a unique and powerful way.
The art in this series is based on the compelling data that describes the various factors that have contributed to climate change over the last two hundred years. Click on image title to see graphic data source.

Gallery 4: What Can We Do To Address Climate Change?

Animal Vs Plant-Based Foods - Impact On Resources

Decreasing the amount of meat we eat, especially red meat, could cut in half the per capita greenhouse gas emissions relating to agriculture, help avoid further deforestation and reduce the amount of water used for agricultural purposes. This could have a significant effect - 80% of the water used in the U.S. is for agricultural purposes and the amount required for meat production is significantly more than that used for plant production. LARGE IMAGE

U.S. Electric Vehicle Sales By Model

Since 2011 sales of electric vehicles have steadily increased, except for a dip in 2015 due to low gas prices. The record-breaking growth of 2016 is expected to continue into 2017. The number of car manufacturers offering electric vehicles has also increased significantly over this measurement period. LARGE IMAGE

Falling Costs For Clean Energy Technologies

In 2015 the US Dept of Energy updated its "Revolution Now" report which highlights "four transformational technologies: land-based wind power, silicon photovoltaic (PV) solar modules, light-emitting diodes (LEDS) and electric vehicles (EVs)." The report shows how "dramatic reductions in cost are driving a surge in consumer, industrial and commercial adoption for these clean energy technologies..." LARGE IMAGE

Global Subsidies - Fossil Fuels Vs Renewables

Global fossil fuel subsidies totaled $544 billion in 2012, compared to only $101 billion for renewables. The International Monetary Fund estimates fossil fuel subsidies for 2015 to be $5.3 trillion - an amount equal to 6.5% of global GDP. More than 40% of this represents subsidies for coal, the most environmentally damaging of all fossil fuels. Although not good news on its face, the disproportionate funding for fossil fuels represents a tremendous opportunity to shift funding to renewable energy without an overall increase in costs. LARGE IMAGE

Wasted Food

When considered on a weight basis, about a third of our planet’s food produced for human consumption is lost or wasted. The green house gas emissions attributable to the production, distribution, and disposal of this food are so great that, if considered to be its own “country”, it would be the third-largest emitter, after China and the United States. The value of this lost food on a global basis is estimated to be over $900 billion annually. Reducing this waste would be a huge victory for the environment and for the global economy. LARGE IMAGE

66%

According to a 2015 poll conducted by the New York Times, Stanford University and the non partisan environmental research group, Resources for the Future, 66% of Americans would be more likely to vote for a candidate that says: “Global warming has been happening and we need to stop the damage. It’s time to use new forms of domestic renewable energy and manufacture cars and appliances that use less gas and electricity.” LARGE IMAGE

Green Jobs - By The Numbers

This digital painting uses a random selection of statistics about "green jobs" to create the background texture of the piece. Some of the numbers used are: "In 2015 there were 2.5 million green jobs in the US.""(E)nergy efficient retrofits in the United States could create more than 3.3 million cumulative job years of employment." "Employment in electric power generation now totals 860,869 jobs, up 13%." "In embracing wind power, Texas created nearly 25,000 jobs." "LEED certified buildings drive 3.3 million US jobs...and are expected to generate $190.3 billion in labor earnings in 2017." "Solar technologies employ almost 375,000 workers, or 43 percent of the electric power generation work force. (Coal, by contrast accounts for about 86,000 workers.)" LARGE IMAGE

Sources Of U.S. Non-Nuclear Renewable Electricity

Non-nuclear source renewable energy in the United States has increased from 2,978 trillion Btu in 1950 to 9,298 in 2013. LARGE IMAGE

Projected Share Of Renewable Electricity Generation

The percentage of total electricity generation from renewable energy sources in the U.S. is projected to grow from 13% (in 2013) to as much as 22% in 2040. However, the anticipated share of electricity generation is significantly affected by various factors, particularly the future price and volume of available oil and gas resources. LARGE IMAGE

ASAP

The Paris Agreement, adopted by 196 countries in December 2015, recognizes that “…climate change represents an urgent and potentially irreversible threat to human societies and the planet…” and emphasizes “…the need for urgency in addressing climate change…” Signatory nations pledged to avoid the most catastrophic impacts by keeping post-industrial age warming to 2 degrees Celsius or below, with a goal of 1.5 degrees, if possible. Certain climate models predict that if carbon emissions continue at current levels, the earth will exceed the 2 degrees Celsius threshold before the middle of this century. “Most scientists concur that two degrees C of warming …would harm all sectors of civilization—food, water, health, land, national security, energy and economic prosperity.” Michael E. Mann, “Earth Will Cross the Climate Danger Threshold by 2036”, Scientific American, April 1, 2014. LARGE IMAGE

The Politics Of Climate Change

According to PRRI, a nonprofit, nonpartisan research organization, "... Democrats are three times as likely as Republicans to say the earth is warming and that humans are to blame." Climate change affects all of us, regardless of political affiliation. If we each work to remove the political lens through which we view the science, we can begin to address this urgent issue, together. LARGE IMAGE

Economic Damage From Temperature Increase

The cost of the struggle against climate change is expected to rise with the expected rise in global temperature. A rapid and energized response over the next few decades, could reduce that cost by half. LARGE IMAGE

The Duck Chart

First published by CAISO* in 2013, the “Duck Chart” illustrates the challenge of “net load” – the difference between forecasted demand and expected electricity production from variable generation resources like solar and wind. “In certain times of the year, these curves produce a 'belly' appearance in the mid-afternoon that quickly ramps up to produce an 'arch' similar to the neck of a duck—hence the industry moniker of “The Duck Chart”. The risk of over-generation can be mitigated in various ways, including: increasing demand by expanding service to undersupplied areas; offering consumers incentives to use energy during parts of the day when supply is highest; improvidng efficiency ofenergy storage; and increasing power plant flextibility to respond more quickly to changing conditions.(*California Independent System Operator Corporation) LARGE IMAGE

97% Consensus

"Multiple studies published in peer-reviewed scientific journals1 show that 97 percent or more of actively publishing climate scientists agree: Climate-warming trends over the past century are extremely likely due to human activities. In addition, most of the leading scientific organizations worldwide have issued public statements endorsing this position." https://climate.nasa.gov/scientific-consensus/ Accessed Feb 1, 2018 LARGE IMAGE

No Carbon Electricity Generation Share - Europe And US

European countries have substantially increased no-carbon generation since 2002 by adding renewables to the energy source mix. Of the 24 countries listed in the chart, 13 generate at least 50%, 18 generate at least 33%, and the United States generates just over 30%, of energy from no-carbon sources. LARGE IMAGE

Reforestation

Tree planting on previously forested sites (reforestation) or on sites not previously forested (aforestation) is one of the carbon offset strategies that help fight climate change. Trees remove CO2 from the atmosphere and store it in biomass. Under the terms of the 2014 New York Declaration on Forests, world leaders - government, business and NGOs - pledged on a voluntary basis to cut deforestation in half by 2020, end it by 2030, and restore an area of forest and cropland larger in size than India. LARGE IMAGE

Fiscal And Environmental Gain From Removing Subsidies

According to the International Monetary fund, “The fiscal, environmental, and welfare impacts of energy subsidy reform are potentially enormous. Eliminating post-tax subsidies in 2015 could raise government revenue by $2.9 trillion (3.6 percent of global GDP), cut global CO2 emissions by more than 20 percent, and cut pre-mature air pollution deaths by more than half. After allowing for the higher energy costs faced by consumers, this action would raise global economic welfare by $1.8 trillion (2.2 percent of global GDP).” LARGE IMAGE

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Why Scientists Have Modelled Climate Change Right Up To The Year 2300

The Conversation - Dmitry Yumashev

kwest / shutterstock

The seas will continue to rise for 300 years. That’s the conclusion of a new study, published in Nature Communications, which projects how much the sea level will rise under varying degrees of success in tackling climate change right up to the year 2300.
But 2300 is almost three centuries from now. Three centuries ago the industrial revolution hadn’t even started. This raises the question of whether, when considering present-day climate policy, there is any value at all in considering such distant futures.
After all, the Paris Agreement on climate change hasn’t set its global temperature rise targets beyond the end of the current century. And even this appears too remote a horizon to motivate emissions cuts in the near future. Therefore, Paris focuses on five-year climate policy cycles starting in 2018, which are more in line with typical political and business cycles, and in tune with our everyday concerns.

I believe it’s a ‘climate agreement’, captain. They were popular in the 21st century. NBC

Nonetheless, multiple climate studies do consider projections of the far future. For instance, one paper estimated that, if we fail to tackle climate change, the Arctic Ocean could be ice-free all year round somewhere between 2150 and 2250. Another study looked at carbon emissions from thawing permafrost as far out as the year 2500.
The obvious criticism is that such work is mere fiction, driven by the intellectual curiosity of a small group of highly specialised scientists, rather than anything relevant to daily life. And in any case, critics might argue, won’t we figure something out in the next century or two that could tackle climate change and prove all the predictions of doom and gloom unfounded?

Emissions will still be linked to the economy
As is often the case, the truth is a little bit more complex.
The first thing to note is that a certain amount of climate change is already “locked in”. Our use of energy and other resources is not going to slow down any time soon, as poorer countries race to industrialise and catch up with the global leaders, while more affluent nations aim to maintain and further improve their living standards. Most people can relate to these aspirations, even if the upshot is they ensure that global emissions stay at their current high levels.

Solar is nice – but not enough. xieyuliang/Shutterstock

Solar and wind power will of course help, but the reality is that such technologies are still nowhere near enough to radically alter the link between emissions and economic expansion. Despite the renewables boom, 2017 saw a 2% rise in global emissions following a three-year plateau. Experts argue that making serious emissions cuts will require much more ambitious efforts across nearly all economic activities, including energy, urbanisation, infrastructure, transport, heavy industries and land use.

We can predict future growth
This brings us back to the very long-term scenarios used by climate scientists. These scenarios are actually based on credible assumptions about a large set of long-term socio-economic and technological drivers that define contrasting futures for the world as a whole. And it turns out that things which will affect future emissions and climate, like the rates of technological progress, or population and wealth growth, are likely going to be constrained within a reasonably predictable range. Even if one includes the possibility of “game-changing technologies”, for example a hypothetical new generation of much cheaper and more effective batteries for electric cars, the world is almost certainly going to stay within this range of scenarios.

Predictable (sort of). Tithi Luadthong/Shutterstock

This is where climate science comes into play. As certain physical processes triggered by global warming are relatively slow, their full impact won’t be apparent for hundreds of years. Consider the ice sheets found in Greenland and Antarctica, for instance, both so big that they respond to climate change only slowly. However, once triggered, and the ice starts sliding towards the oceans, causing the sea level to rise, the melting process takes centuries to reverse. Something similar is happening with thawing permafrost, which releases additional greenhouse gases into the atmosphere.
Both rising sea levels and thawing permafrost could impact hundreds of millions of people, particularly those living in coastal areas or hotter climates. But if we want to know how much we should be worried, then climate predictions up until 2050 won’t cut it – the world may still be warming at that point, even if we stopped emitting carbon overnight. Given the future of the world is bound within a reasonably predictable range of scenarios, it therefore makes sense to estimate the risks posed by these slow physical processes, by extending the analysis as far out as 2300.

Why sea levels in 2300 matter
Back to the original study. Its main result was that the sea level could still rise by up to 1.2 metres (4ft) by 2300 even under a very optimistic climate scenario where the global temperature never rises more than 2℃ above pre-industrial levels. That is, even if manmade emissions peak within the next two decades, then drop down to zero no later than by 2070 and remain at zero from then onwards – sea levels would still rise by more than a metre.

Antarctica may continue melting for centuries. Denis Burdin / shutterstock

Achieving zero net emissions within the next 30 to 50 years will be hard enough. But the study shows that even if this ambitious target is achieved, sea levels will continue to rise for the following two centuries. This is a climate time bomb for coastal areas. Though it may not seem like a lot, a 1.2-metre sea level rise will still force megacities such as London and New York to spend billions to maintain flood defences in the face of stronger storm surges.
Achieving zero emissions is therefore not enough to prevent the long-term effects of sea level rise from kicking in. To bring temperatures back to at least the current levels – that is around 1℃ above pre-industrial – we’ll need negative emissions technologies that draw carbon directly out of the atmosphere.
This is an important long-term policy result that was made possible by considering extended time horizons. By reaching as far out as 2300, we have reaffirmed the need to take ambitious climate action in the more immediate future.

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27/02/2018

Threat Of Climate Change Is Forcing Norway To Drop Millions On Its Doomsday Vault

Gizmodo - George Dvorsky

The entrance to the Svalbard Global Seed Vault. Image: Svalbard Global Seed Vault

Today’s addition of 70,000 new seeds to the Svalbard Global Seed Vault brings the total number of crops stored at the Arctic facility to over one million. It’s an important milestone—but to keep the vault running, and to protect it from the effects of climate change, the Norwegian government is going to have to spend upwards of $13 million in upgrades.
The Estonian onion potato, black-eyed peas, Bambara groundnuts, and Hunter barley used to brew Irish beer are among the 70,000 deposits made today at Svalbard. That brings the total number of seeds deposited at the facility to a whopping 1,059,646, according to the BBC.

The Doomsday Vault, as it’s been dubbed, opened exactly ten years ago today, and it’s there on Svalbard Island—halfway between the mainland of Norway and the North Pole—to protect the world’s seeds in the event of cataclysmic climate change, mega-droughts, nuclear war, or whichever apocalypse-inducing event we might be able to think of. Only one of the vault’s three chambers are full, but that’s not stopping the Norwegian government from contemplating some much-needed upgrades. There are still well over a million unique varieties of crops that still need to be stored at the site.
A year ago, a flood at the vault’s entrance prompted a re-evaluation of the facility’s ability to fend off the effects of climate change (thankfully the flood didn’t damage the facility). Following a feasibility study commissioned by its Ministry of Agriculture and Food, the Norwegian government is proposing a startup grant of 100 million NOK ($12.7 million) to improve performance and extend the long-term viability of the vault.
Even though it’s located in the Arctic Circle, Svalbard’s temperature is expected to increase from an average 21 degrees F (-5.9 C) to 38 degrees F (3.3 C), and rainfall is expected to increase by 40 percent, by the year 2100. Ironically, the facility designed to safeguard seeds in the event of climate change is being threatened by climate change.

“The main principle for construction in permafrost areas is to avoid the warming and thawing of permafrost,” writes Statsbygg, the state-owned management company that conducted the feasibility study. “For buildings that are particularly sensitive to... damage, or where long life is desired, artificial cooling of the ground [will be required]. Climate change will lead to increased ground temperatures, less permafrost, poorer carrying capacity, [among other problems].”
To prepare the vault for the coming effects of climate change, and to ensure that it will “continue to offer the world’s gene banks a secure storage space in the future,” the facility will be equipped with new refrigeration units, a concrete access tunnel, a service building to house emergency power, and new electrical equipment. Waterproof walls have already been fitted to prevent flooding.
Three years ago, the Syrian Civil War prompted the first documented withdrawal of seeds from the vault. So while the Svalbard Seed Vault may seem like something we’ll need for the future, the facility has already proven its worth.

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Top Climate Scientist: Humans Will Go Extinct If We Don’t Fix Climate Change By 2023

Grit Post - Scott Alden

A top climate scientist is warning that climate change will wipe out all of humanity unless we stop using fossil fuels over the next five years.
In a recent speech at the University of Chicago, James Anderson — a professor of atmospheric chemistry at Harvard University — warned that climate change is drastically pushing Earth back to the Eocene Epoch from 33 million BCE, when there was no ice on either pole. Anderson says current pollution levels have already catastrophically depleted atmospheric ozone levels, which absorb 98 percent of ultraviolet rays, to levels not seen in 12 million years.
Anderson’s assessment of humanity’s timeline for action is likely accurate, given that his diagnosis and discovery of Antarctica’s ozone holes led to the Montreal Protocol of 1987. Anderson’s research was recognized by the United Nations in September of 1997. He subsequently received the United Nations Vienna Convention Award for Protection of the Ozone Layer in 2005, and has been recognized by numerous universities and academic bodies for his research.
While some governments have made commitments to reduce carbon emissions (Germany has pledged to cut 95 percent of carbon emissions by 2050), Anderson warned that those measures were insufficient to stop the extinction of humanity by way of a rapidly changing climate. Instead, Anderson is calling for a Marshall Plan-style endeavor in which all of the world takes extreme measures to transition off of fossil fuels completely within the next five years.

Recovery is all but impossible, he argued, without a World War II-style transformation of industry—an acceleration of the effort to halt carbon pollution and remove it from the atmosphere, and a new effort to reflect sunlight away from the earth’s poles.
This has do[sic] be done, Anderson added, within the next five years.
“The chance that there will be any permanent ice left in the Arctic after 2022 is essentially zero,” Anderson said, with 75 to 80 percent of permanent ice having melted already in the last 35 years.

Anderson’s prediction of Arctic sea ice disappearing by 2022 may be closer to reality than a lot of us would hope. In 2016, University of Reading professor Ed Hawkins compiled global temperature data dating back to 1850, prior to the Industrial Revolution of the early 20th century and the oil boom, and turning the data into a time-lapse GIF. The most alarming part of the data showed that temperatures began rising exponentially faster at the start of the 21st century and show no signs of slowing down:

Spiralling global temperatures from 1850-2016 (full animation) Ed Hawkins

The good news is there are a relatively small amount of culprits responsible for the vast majority of carbon emissions, meaning governments know who to focus on. As Grit Post reported in July of 2017, more than half of all carbon emissions between 1988 and 2016 can be traced back to just 25 fossil fuel giants around the world. 10 of those 25 top emitters are American companies, meaning the onus is largely on the United States to rein in major polluters like ConocoPhillips, ExxonMobil, Chevron, and Marathon Oil. Other offenders include Chinese companies extracting and burning coal, and Russian oil conglomerates like Rosneft, Gazprom, and Lukoil.
However, the bad news for humanity is that as long as Donald Trump is President of the United States, swift action to combat climate change seems unlikely prior to 2020, given that Trump pulled out of the Paris Climate Accords and refuses to even acknowledge the threat of climate change despite warnings from U.S. government agencies like the Department of Homeland Security and the Department of Defense.

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The Art Of Climate Change Gallery 3: Who Is At Risk?

Gallery 3: Who Is At Risk?

1 Out Of 4

According to the Nature Conservancy, one fourth of the Earth's species could be headed for extinction by 2050 due to climate change. The "x's" in the "tic tac toe" game represent these species at risk of being crossed off the planet. Climate change is no game. LARGE IMAGE

Floods

The risk of flooding of coastal areas across the world continues to increase along with the ever-rising levels of our oceans. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report identifies the regions of South, Southeast, and East Asia, Africa and small islands as most vulnerable, but coastal communities across the world are also impacted. A report published by Climate Central (10-25-17), ranking the 25 US cities with populations most vulnerable to climate change driven flooding, lists New York City with the largest vulnerable population, followed by 9 Florida cities including: Hialeah, Miami, and Ft Lauderdale. LARGE IMAGE

Countries That Contribute Least Are Most Vulnerable

No country is immune from climate change impact, but researchers have concluded that in almost all cases, the countries contributing least in greenhouse gas emissions will be most immediately and urgently affected. These are often poor, undeveloped nations with limited resources to respond to the critical challenges of climate change. (The red dot in the digital painting represents the countries (notably Saudi Arabia) where high emissions correlate with high impact. For the rest of the world, the mismatch is extreme, and fundamentally unfair). LARGE IMAGE

Billion-Dollar Natural Disaster Event Frequency In US

The US has sustained 212 weather and climate disasters since 1980, but the years with the most frequent events have all occurred since 2011. During the 18-year period 1980-1998, 70 billion-dollar events occurred, costing a total of $395.2 billion dollars and the loss of 4,287 lives. During the somewhat shorter 17.5-year period 1999-July 2017, 142 billion-dollar events occurred, costing a total of $842.3 billion dollars and the loss of 5,393 lives. NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) U.S. Billion-Dollar Weather and Climate Disasters (2017). https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/billions/ It is important to note that the above 2017 figures do not cover the 2017 hurricane season which includes the catastrophic hurricanes Harvey, Irma, and Maria. According to the New York Times (October 12, 2017), with a month and a half to go until season end, nearly 5 times the full season average of major hurricane days were experienced in 2017. NOAA has since reported (1-08-18) that extreme weather events caused $306 billion of damage to the US in 2017, the most expensive year on record. 16 $1 billion plus natural disasters occurred in 2017, compared to 3 (inflation adjusted) in 1980. LARGE IMAGE

Vector-Borne Diseases

Vector borne diseases (i.e., those spread by insects such as fleas, ticks and mosquitoes) are influenced by climate. Certain diseases are particularly sensitive to climactic conditions, such as Dengue Fever, which has shown a 30-fold increase over the last 50 years, and virus behind the latest epidemic, Zika. LARGE IMAGE

Climate Change Impact On Poverty

“Climate change threatens the object of sustainably eradicating poverty. Poor people and poor countries are exposed and vulnerable to all types of climate-related shocks- natural disasters that destroy assets and livelihoods; waterborne diseases and pests that become more prevalent during heat waves, floods, or droughts; crop failure from reduced rainfall; and spikes in food prices that follow extreme weather events…. “ Absent rapid, well-informed policies and programs, “…climate change could result in an additional 100 million people living in extreme poverty by 2030.” LARGE IMAGE

Trends In Strength Of Hurricanes Impacting US

Climate change increases the impact, strength and intensity of hurricanes: warmer oceans increase hurricane strength and create more evaporation, which turns to vapor and results in heavier rains; rising sea levels enhance the effect of storm surges causing greater flooding; changes in Gulf Stream patterns are also believed to cause stalling of storms over land with unprecedented levels of rain. LARGE IMAGE

Shells Dissolve In Acidified Ocean Water

Ocean acidity has increased by 30% over the last 250 years due to absorption of emitted CO2. Marine species such as coral, mollusks, shellfish and plankton are put at risk by the increasing acidification and warming of their habitat. LARGE IMAGE

Coral Reefs At Risk

A combination of local stressors (e.g., overfishing) and global factors, such as ocean acidification, heat and weather cycles, threaten about 75% of coral reefs world-wide. It is projected that by mid-century, 95% of coral reefs will be threatened by heat and bleaching. Coral reefs are a crucial part of the ocean's ecosystem, providing food and shelter to a quarter of all marine life. An estimated 500 million to one billion people rely on the fish supported by coral reefs. LARGE IMAGE

Conflict

Governments across the world are beginning to focus on the connection between climate change and conflict. Studies suggest that competition over depleting natural resources and socio-economic impacts from intensified natural disasters, such as floods or droughts, can make fragile states more vulnerable to conflict. The US Department of Defense stated in a July 29, 2015 report to Congress, “Global climate change will aggravate problems such as poverty, social tensions, environmental degradation, ineffectual leadership and weak political institutions that threaten stability in a number of countries.” LARGE IMAGE

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'Really Extreme' Global Weather Event Leaves Scientists Aghast

Fairfax - Peter Hannam

Climate scientists are used to seeing the range of weather extremes stretched by global warming but few episodes appear as remarkable as this week's unusual heat over the Arctic.
Zack Labe, a researcher at the University of California at Irvine, said average daily temperatures above the northern latitude of 80 degrees have broken away from any previous recordings in the past 60 years.

"It's just wrong": This week's unusual burst of heat over the Arctic. Photo: Climate Reanalyzer

Source: http://sites.uci.edu/zlabe/arctic-temperatures/

"To have zero degrees at the North Pole in February - it's just wrong," said Amelie Meyer, a researcher of ice-ocean interactions with the Norwegian Polar Institute. "It's quite worrying."

The Arctic Ocean has endured another warmer-than-average winter in a region that is warming much faster than the rest of the planet. Photo: NASA

The so-called Polar Vortex - a zone of persistient low-pressure that typically keeps high-latitude cold air separate from regions further south - has been weakening for decades.
In this instance, "a massive jet of warm air" is penetrating north, sending a cold burst southwards, said Dr Meyer, who has relocated to Hobart to research on the southern hemisphere, and is hosted by Australia's Integrated Marine Observing System.
"The anomalies are really extreme," Andrew King, a lecturer in climate science at the University of Melbourne, said. "It's a very interesting event."
Warm, moist air is penetrating much further north than it would normally at a time when the North Pole is in complete darkness.
Cape Morris Jessup, the world's most northerly land-based weather station, in Greenland, touched 6 degrees late on Saturday, about 35 degrees above normal for this time of year.
Robert Rohede, a Zurich-based scientist with Berkeley Earth, posted on Twitter that Cape Morris Jessup had already recorded 61 hours above freezing so far in 2018.
The previous record of such relative was just 16 hours recorded to the end of April in 2011.
"Parts of Greenland are quite a bit warmer than most of Europe," Dr King said.
The cold snap will sink temperatures moderately below freezing in London each day until Friday. However, cities such as Berlin will dive to as low as minus 12 degrees and Moscow to minus 24.
With a weak jetstream, surface winds are taking an unusual course - bringing snow from the east and prompting some commentators to dub the event the "Beast from the East".
"For Britain and Ireland, most weather systems would typically blow in from the west, but [on Tuesday] we will see a cold front cross Britain from the east," Dr King said.

IMAGE

Along with the unusual warmth over the Arctic, scientists are monitoring the retreat of sea ice in the Bering Sea.
The ice coverage in the region is now at levels previously seen only in May or June, Mr Labe posted on Twitter, citing data from the US National Snow and Ice Data Centre.
While climate change itself is only likely to have exacerbated regional weather variability, the long-term shrinkage of sea ice has a reinforcing effect on global warming in a region already warming faster than anywhere else on the planet, Dr King said.
Ice reflects sunlight back to space. When it melts, the sea ice exposes more of the dark ocean beneath, which then absorbs that solar radiation, adding to the warming.
Sea ice coverage is currently at or close to record low levels at both the Arctic and Antarctic regions.
The impact of the relatively warm air in the Arctic could play out for months to come. Multi-year ice is likely to be thinner and more cracked, leading to a faster melt when spring arrives, Dr Meyer said.
While researchers had pegged 2050 as a possible year when the Arctic will become ice-free, this winter and the previous one - also unusually warm - had thrown those estimates out.
"It's going much faster than we thought," said Dr Meyer, who will begin work later this year at the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes.

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