EU To Refuse To Sign Trade Deals With Countries That Don't Ratify Paris Climate Change Accord

The Independent - Jon Stone

Trade chief Cecilia Malmstrom says Paris clause ‘needed in all EU trade agreements’

Workers adjust and clean the logo of the European Commission at the entrance to its headquarters Reuters

The European Union will refuse to sign trade deals with countries that do not ratify the Paris climate change agreement and take steps to combat global warming, under a new Brussels policy.
Cecilia Malmstrom‏, the EU’s trade chief, said a binding reference to the Paris agreement would be “needed in all EU trade agreements” from now on, noting that it had been included in a deal with Japan.
She said upcoming deals with Mexico and the South American trade bloc Mercosur would also include the clause.
A European Commission spokesperson confirmed that the new EU policy would also apply to a post-Brexit trade deal with the UK – meaning Britain would risk its trade deal with the bloc were it ever to try to back out of the accord.
The move effectively means the 500-million-citizen bloc is throwing its trade might behind tackling climate change.
But the policy also means a future trade deal with the US as long as Donald Trump is in office is off the table for now. The US President has indicated that he will not sign up to the deal to cut greenhouse emissions and has said he wants to renegotiate it – a plan most other countries, including the UK, have rejected.
Conveniently, talks on a trade agreement between the EU and US were effectively frozen from 2016 after Mr Trump was elected.

Donald Trump has heavily criticised the climate change accord Reuters

The Paris accord aims to prevent the earth from warming more than 2C above pre-industrial temperatures. 195 countries have signed the agreement, and 174 have become party to it.
A European Commission spokesperson told The Independent: “All agreements negotiated by the EU include a very substantial chapter on trade and sustainable development with social and environmental standards shaping the agreements.
“Since the deal we concluded last year with Japan, this chapter contains an explicit reference to the ratification and actual implementation of the Paris climate deal.
“This point is a priority for the EU and it would be difficult to imagine concluding an important trade deal without an ambitious chapter on trade and sustainable development attached to it.
“When it comes to the negotiations with the US for a trade agreement, those are ‘frozen’ since the end of 2016.”

Links

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• Donald Trump: Washington Formally Tells UN Of Paris Agreement Withdrawal
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• How Scientists Reacted To The US Leaving The Paris Climate Agreement
• Paris Agreement Remains In Australia’s Interest – Australian Climate Roundtable

Global Sea Level Rise Rate Speeding Up, 25 Years Of Satellite Data Confirms

ABC Science - Genelle Weule

Satellite data indicates sea levels will rise around 61 cm between now and 2100. (Pexel: Sebastian Voortman)

Key points It was thought sea level rise was accelerating at steady 3mm a year Analysis of first 25 years of satellite data shows rate going up by 3mm a year, plus 0.08mm a year, every year. Acceleration largely being driven by melting of Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets and likely to increase in future, say scientists

The rate of global sea level rise is accelerating as ice sheets in Antarctica and Greenland melt, an analysis of the first 25 years of satellite data confirms.
The study, by US scientists, has calculated the rate of global mean sea level rise is not just going up at a steady rate of 3mm a year, but has been increasing by an additional 0.08mm a year, every year since 1993.
If the rate of change continues at this pace, global mean sea levels will rise 61 centimetres between now and 2100, they report today in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
"That's basically double the amount you would get if you only had 3 mm a year with no acceleration," said the study's lead author Steven Nerem of the University of Colorado.
But that figure, which is broadly in line with climate modelling, is likely to be a conservative estimate of global mean sea level rise in the future, said Professor Nerem.
"When you try to extrapolate numbers like this you're assuming sea level change and acceleration are going to be the same as they've been over the past 25 years.
"But that's probably not going to be the case.
"We're seeing changes in Greenland and Antarctica that are almost certainly going to be bigger than that in the future," he said.

Putting a number on sea level rise
Global warming drives sea level rises in two ways: by melting land-based ice sheets, and heating up ocean water causing it to expand.
Sea levels have been recorded by a series of four satellites, starting with the 1992 launch of the TOPEX/Poseidon satellite, in addition to long-term data captured by tidal gauges.

The Jason-3 satellite is the most recent in a series of four satellites to measure sea levels since 1993. (Supplied: NASA)

Professor Nerem said analysis of tidal gauge records and decadal changes in satellite data in the past had indicated global mean sea level rise was accelerating, but it had been hard to pin down a number.

"We always felt that there was an acceleration, but it's very small and it's difficult to detect," he said.

To arrive at their number, Professor Nerem and colleagues adjusted the satellite data for short-term factors such as the El Niño/La Niña climate patterns, as well as the 1991 eruption of Mount Pinatubo, which caused sea levels to drop just before the launch of the TOPEX satellite.

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On top of the world

Big nations might be struggling to avoid a two-degree temperature rise, but the Arctic island of Greenland is welcoming it, Foreign Correspondent finds.

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They also cross-referenced tide gauge and satellite data to correct anomalies in the TOPEX satellite record proposed in an earlier research co-authored by John Church of the Climate Change Research Centre at the University of New South Wales (UNSW).
"This is the first satellite-based estimate of an acceleration number," Professor Nerem said.
"The number is useful because you can take the rate of sea level change and the acceleration, and extrapolate it in the future and see how it agrees with climate models."
The figure calculated by Professor Nerem's study is similar to those predicted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Charge (IPCC) under its upper 8.5 scenario, which assumes increasing greenhouse gas emissions.
UNSW's Professor Church is the co-convening lead author of chapters on sea level rise in the most recent IPCC assessment report.
He said the length of the new study and the correction of the satellite data was important.
"This is very solid confirmation … there is an acceleration and it's the right magnitude to be consistent with IPCC, Professor Church said.

Ice sheet melting is a real concern
Professor Nerem's team also looked at data from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite, which monitored changes in Earth's gravitational field, to determine where the figure was coming from.
They found the bulk of the acceleration was caused by the melting of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, which contributed 0.02mm and 0.03mm a year, every year, to the overall acceleration rate.
Professor Church said the Antarctic was contributing more to acceleration than previous estimates.

"Ice sheets have huge amounts of equivalent sea level stored in them," Professor Church said.

"I think that's a real concern. The ice sheets are contributing measurably to this acceleration," he said.

Aerial image of rivers and meltwater lakes on the Greenland ice sheet. (Supplied: Maria-Jose Vinas)

Professor Nerem said the next step was to continue looking at the satellite data to get a longer-term picture.
"This was a first detection in the satellite altimeter record, so we just barely have enough time series to feel comfortable publishing an estimate of acceleration," Professor Nerem said.
"In addition, we'll certainly be watching our data to see if there are any rapid changes in the ice sheets that might be detected."
One of the important tools that will enable them to do that will be the launch of a new GRACE satellite in April.
"That allows us to directly observe the ice sheets," he said.

Links

• Foreign Correspondent: On Top Of The World
• Swallowed By The Sea
• Sea Levels Are Already Rising. What's Next?
• For Scientists Predicting Sea Level Rise, Wind Is The Biggest Unknown
• Coal Use Must 'Pretty Much' Be Gone By 2050 To Curb Sea-Level Rise, Researchers Say
• 25 Years Of Global Sea Level Data, And Counting
• Are The Floating Houses Of The Netherlands A Solution Against The Rising Seas?
• Climate Change Will Almost Certainly Heat The World So Much It Can Never Recover, Major Study Finds

Observations Show Sea Levels Rising, And Climate Change Is Accelerating It

CNN - Brandon Miller*

Changes in sea level observed between 1992 and 2014. Orange/red colors represent higher sea levels, while blue colors show where sea levels are lower. © from NASA 

Sea level rise is happening now, and the rate at which it is rising is increasing every year, according to a study released Monday in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

Nerem provided this chart showing sea level projections to 2100 using the newly calculated acceleration rate. © Steve Nerem 

Researchers, led by University of Colorado-Boulder professor of aerospace engineering sciencesSteve Nerem, used satellite data dating to 1993 to observe the levels of the world's oceans.

Using satellite data rather than tide-gauge data that is normally used to measure sea levels allows for more precise estimates of global sea level, since it provides measurements of the open ocean.
The team observed a total rise in the ocean of 7 centimeters (2.8 inches) in 25 years of data, which aligns with the generally accepted current rate of sea level rise of about 3 millimeters (0.1 inches) per year.
But that rate is not constant.
Continuous emissions of greenhouse gases are warming the Earth's atmosphere and oceans and melting its ice, causing the rate of sea level rise to increase.

MIAMI BEACH, FL - SEPTEMBER 29: A hotel guest steps out of a hotel into a flooded street that was caused by the combination of the lunar orbit which…© Joe Raedle/Getty Images North America/Getty Images 

"This acceleration, driven mainly by accelerated melting in Greenland and Antarctica, has the potential to double the total sea level rise by 2100 as compared to projections that assume a constant rate, to more than 60 centimeters instead of about 30," said Nerem, who is also a fellow with the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Science.
Greenland's melting glaciers may someday flood your city
That projection agrees perfectly with climate models used in the latest International Panel on Climate Change report, which show sea level rise to be between 52 and 98 centimeters by 2100 for a "business as usual" scenario (in which greenhouse emissions continue without reduction).
Therefore, scientists now have observed evidence validating climate model projections, as well as providing policy-makers with a "data-driven assessment of sea level change that does not depend on the climate models," Nerem said.

NASA's GRACE mission used satellites to measure changes in ice mass. This image shows areas of Antarctica that gained or lost ice between 2002 and 2016. © NASA 

Sea level rise of 65 centimeters, or roughly 2 feet, would cause significant problems for coastal cities around the world. Extreme water levels, such as high tides and surges from strong storms, would be made exponentially worse.
Consider the record set in Boston Harbor during January's "bomb cyclone" or the inundation regularly experienced in Miami during the King tides; these are occurring with sea levels that have risen about a foot in the past 100 years.
Now, researchers say we could add another 2 feet by the end of this century.
Nerem and his team took into account natural changes in sea level thanks to cycles such as El Niño/La Niña and even events such as the 1991 eruption of Mount Pinatubo, which altered sea levels worldwide for several years.
The result is a "climate-change-driven" acceleration: the amount the sea levels are rising because of the warming caused by manmade global warming.
The researchers used data from other scientific missions such as GRACE, the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment, to determine what was causing the rate to accelerate.
Currently, over half of the observed rise is the result of "thermal expansion": As ocean water warms, it expands, and sea levels rise. The rest of the rise is the result of melted ice in Greenland and Antarctica and mountain glaciers flowing into the oceans.
Theirs is a troubling finding when considering the recent rapid ice loss in the ice sheets.
"Sixty-five centimeters is probably on the low end for 2100," Nerem said, "since it assumes the rate and acceleration we have seen over the last 25 years continues for the next 82 years."
"We are already seeing signs of ice sheet instability in Greenland and Antarctica, so if they experience rapid changes, then we would likely see more than 65 centimeters of sea level rise by 2100."
Penn State climate scientist Michael Mann, who was not involved with the study, said "it confirms what we have long feared: that the sooner-than-expected ice loss from the west Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets is leading to acceleration in sea level rise sooner than was projected."

*Brandon Miller is CNN's Meteorologist

Links

• Satellites show warming is accelerating sea level rise
• Swallowed By The Sea
• Sea Levels Are Already Rising. What's Next?
• For Scientists Predicting Sea Level Rise, Wind Is The Biggest Unknown
• Coal Use Must 'Pretty Much' Be Gone By 2050 To Curb Sea-Level Rise, Researchers Say
• 25 Years Of Global Sea Level Data, And Counting
• Are The Floating Houses Of The Netherlands A Solution Against The Rising Seas?
• Climate Change Will Almost Certainly Heat The World So Much It Can Never Recover, Major Study Finds