Lethal Heating: 02/27/18

27/02/2018

Threat Of Climate Change Is Forcing Norway To Drop Millions On Its Doomsday Vault

Gizmodo - George Dvorsky

The entrance to the Svalbard Global Seed Vault. Image: Svalbard Global Seed Vault

Today’s addition of 70,000 new seeds to the Svalbard Global Seed Vault brings the total number of crops stored at the Arctic facility to over one million. It’s an important milestone—but to keep the vault running, and to protect it from the effects of climate change, the Norwegian government is going to have to spend upwards of $13 million in upgrades.
The Estonian onion potato, black-eyed peas, Bambara groundnuts, and Hunter barley used to brew Irish beer are among the 70,000 deposits made today at Svalbard. That brings the total number of seeds deposited at the facility to a whopping 1,059,646, according to the BBC.

The Doomsday Vault, as it’s been dubbed, opened exactly ten years ago today, and it’s there on Svalbard Island—halfway between the mainland of Norway and the North Pole—to protect the world’s seeds in the event of cataclysmic climate change, mega-droughts, nuclear war, or whichever apocalypse-inducing event we might be able to think of. Only one of the vault’s three chambers are full, but that’s not stopping the Norwegian government from contemplating some much-needed upgrades. There are still well over a million unique varieties of crops that still need to be stored at the site.
A year ago, a flood at the vault’s entrance prompted a re-evaluation of the facility’s ability to fend off the effects of climate change (thankfully the flood didn’t damage the facility). Following a feasibility study commissioned by its Ministry of Agriculture and Food, the Norwegian government is proposing a startup grant of 100 million NOK ($12.7 million) to improve performance and extend the long-term viability of the vault.
Even though it’s located in the Arctic Circle, Svalbard’s temperature is expected to increase from an average 21 degrees F (-5.9 C) to 38 degrees F (3.3 C), and rainfall is expected to increase by 40 percent, by the year 2100. Ironically, the facility designed to safeguard seeds in the event of climate change is being threatened by climate change.

“The main principle for construction in permafrost areas is to avoid the warming and thawing of permafrost,” writes Statsbygg, the state-owned management company that conducted the feasibility study. “For buildings that are particularly sensitive to... damage, or where long life is desired, artificial cooling of the ground [will be required]. Climate change will lead to increased ground temperatures, less permafrost, poorer carrying capacity, [among other problems].”
To prepare the vault for the coming effects of climate change, and to ensure that it will “continue to offer the world’s gene banks a secure storage space in the future,” the facility will be equipped with new refrigeration units, a concrete access tunnel, a service building to house emergency power, and new electrical equipment. Waterproof walls have already been fitted to prevent flooding.
Three years ago, the Syrian Civil War prompted the first documented withdrawal of seeds from the vault. So while the Svalbard Seed Vault may seem like something we’ll need for the future, the facility has already proven its worth.

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Top Climate Scientist: Humans Will Go Extinct If We Don’t Fix Climate Change By 2023

Grit Post - Scott Alden

A top climate scientist is warning that climate change will wipe out all of humanity unless we stop using fossil fuels over the next five years.
In a recent speech at the University of Chicago, James Anderson — a professor of atmospheric chemistry at Harvard University — warned that climate change is drastically pushing Earth back to the Eocene Epoch from 33 million BCE, when there was no ice on either pole. Anderson says current pollution levels have already catastrophically depleted atmospheric ozone levels, which absorb 98 percent of ultraviolet rays, to levels not seen in 12 million years.
Anderson’s assessment of humanity’s timeline for action is likely accurate, given that his diagnosis and discovery of Antarctica’s ozone holes led to the Montreal Protocol of 1987. Anderson’s research was recognized by the United Nations in September of 1997. He subsequently received the United Nations Vienna Convention Award for Protection of the Ozone Layer in 2005, and has been recognized by numerous universities and academic bodies for his research.
While some governments have made commitments to reduce carbon emissions (Germany has pledged to cut 95 percent of carbon emissions by 2050), Anderson warned that those measures were insufficient to stop the extinction of humanity by way of a rapidly changing climate. Instead, Anderson is calling for a Marshall Plan-style endeavor in which all of the world takes extreme measures to transition off of fossil fuels completely within the next five years.

Recovery is all but impossible, he argued, without a World War II-style transformation of industry—an acceleration of the effort to halt carbon pollution and remove it from the atmosphere, and a new effort to reflect sunlight away from the earth’s poles.
This has do[sic] be done, Anderson added, within the next five years.
“The chance that there will be any permanent ice left in the Arctic after 2022 is essentially zero,” Anderson said, with 75 to 80 percent of permanent ice having melted already in the last 35 years.

Anderson’s prediction of Arctic sea ice disappearing by 2022 may be closer to reality than a lot of us would hope. In 2016, University of Reading professor Ed Hawkins compiled global temperature data dating back to 1850, prior to the Industrial Revolution of the early 20th century and the oil boom, and turning the data into a time-lapse GIF. The most alarming part of the data showed that temperatures began rising exponentially faster at the start of the 21st century and show no signs of slowing down:

Spiralling global temperatures from 1850-2016 (full animation) Ed Hawkins

The good news is there are a relatively small amount of culprits responsible for the vast majority of carbon emissions, meaning governments know who to focus on. As Grit Post reported in July of 2017, more than half of all carbon emissions between 1988 and 2016 can be traced back to just 25 fossil fuel giants around the world. 10 of those 25 top emitters are American companies, meaning the onus is largely on the United States to rein in major polluters like ConocoPhillips, ExxonMobil, Chevron, and Marathon Oil. Other offenders include Chinese companies extracting and burning coal, and Russian oil conglomerates like Rosneft, Gazprom, and Lukoil.
However, the bad news for humanity is that as long as Donald Trump is President of the United States, swift action to combat climate change seems unlikely prior to 2020, given that Trump pulled out of the Paris Climate Accords and refuses to even acknowledge the threat of climate change despite warnings from U.S. government agencies like the Department of Homeland Security and the Department of Defense.

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The Art Of Climate Change Gallery 3: Who Is At Risk?

Environmental Graphiti

Environmental Graphiti® is a venture that uses art to dramatize the critical science of climate change in an effort to expand public awareness of this urgent issue.
ART makes the science more accessible. Science makes the art more meaningful. Together they tell the story of climate change in a unique and powerful way.
The art in this series is based on the compelling data that describes the various factors that have contributed to climate change over the last two hundred years. Click on image title to see graphic data source.

Gallery 3: Who Is At Risk?

1 Out Of 4

According to the Nature Conservancy, one fourth of the Earth's species could be headed for extinction by 2050 due to climate change. The "x's" in the "tic tac toe" game represent these species at risk of being crossed off the planet. Climate change is no game. LARGE IMAGE

Floods

The risk of flooding of coastal areas across the world continues to increase along with the ever-rising levels of our oceans. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report identifies the regions of South, Southeast, and East Asia, Africa and small islands as most vulnerable, but coastal communities across the world are also impacted. A report published by Climate Central (10-25-17), ranking the 25 US cities with populations most vulnerable to climate change driven flooding, lists New York City with the largest vulnerable population, followed by 9 Florida cities including: Hialeah, Miami, and Ft Lauderdale. LARGE IMAGE

Countries That Contribute Least Are Most Vulnerable

No country is immune from climate change impact, but researchers have concluded that in almost all cases, the countries contributing least in greenhouse gas emissions will be most immediately and urgently affected. These are often poor, undeveloped nations with limited resources to respond to the critical challenges of climate change. (The red dot in the digital painting represents the countries (notably Saudi Arabia) where high emissions correlate with high impact. For the rest of the world, the mismatch is extreme, and fundamentally unfair). LARGE IMAGE

Billion-Dollar Natural Disaster Event Frequency In US

The US has sustained 212 weather and climate disasters since 1980, but the years with the most frequent events have all occurred since 2011. During the 18-year period 1980-1998, 70 billion-dollar events occurred, costing a total of $395.2 billion dollars and the loss of 4,287 lives. During the somewhat shorter 17.5-year period 1999-July 2017, 142 billion-dollar events occurred, costing a total of $842.3 billion dollars and the loss of 5,393 lives. NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) U.S. Billion-Dollar Weather and Climate Disasters (2017). https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/billions/ It is important to note that the above 2017 figures do not cover the 2017 hurricane season which includes the catastrophic hurricanes Harvey, Irma, and Maria. According to the New York Times (October 12, 2017), with a month and a half to go until season end, nearly 5 times the full season average of major hurricane days were experienced in 2017. NOAA has since reported (1-08-18) that extreme weather events caused $306 billion of damage to the US in 2017, the most expensive year on record. 16 $1 billion plus natural disasters occurred in 2017, compared to 3 (inflation adjusted) in 1980. LARGE IMAGE

Vector-Borne Diseases

Vector borne diseases (i.e., those spread by insects such as fleas, ticks and mosquitoes) are influenced by climate. Certain diseases are particularly sensitive to climactic conditions, such as Dengue Fever, which has shown a 30-fold increase over the last 50 years, and virus behind the latest epidemic, Zika. LARGE IMAGE

Climate Change Impact On Poverty

“Climate change threatens the object of sustainably eradicating poverty. Poor people and poor countries are exposed and vulnerable to all types of climate-related shocks- natural disasters that destroy assets and livelihoods; waterborne diseases and pests that become more prevalent during heat waves, floods, or droughts; crop failure from reduced rainfall; and spikes in food prices that follow extreme weather events…. “ Absent rapid, well-informed policies and programs, “…climate change could result in an additional 100 million people living in extreme poverty by 2030.” LARGE IMAGE

Trends In Strength Of Hurricanes Impacting US

Climate change increases the impact, strength and intensity of hurricanes: warmer oceans increase hurricane strength and create more evaporation, which turns to vapor and results in heavier rains; rising sea levels enhance the effect of storm surges causing greater flooding; changes in Gulf Stream patterns are also believed to cause stalling of storms over land with unprecedented levels of rain. LARGE IMAGE

Shells Dissolve In Acidified Ocean Water

Ocean acidity has increased by 30% over the last 250 years due to absorption of emitted CO2. Marine species such as coral, mollusks, shellfish and plankton are put at risk by the increasing acidification and warming of their habitat. LARGE IMAGE

Coral Reefs At Risk

A combination of local stressors (e.g., overfishing) and global factors, such as ocean acidification, heat and weather cycles, threaten about 75% of coral reefs world-wide. It is projected that by mid-century, 95% of coral reefs will be threatened by heat and bleaching. Coral reefs are a crucial part of the ocean's ecosystem, providing food and shelter to a quarter of all marine life. An estimated 500 million to one billion people rely on the fish supported by coral reefs. LARGE IMAGE

Conflict

Governments across the world are beginning to focus on the connection between climate change and conflict. Studies suggest that competition over depleting natural resources and socio-economic impacts from intensified natural disasters, such as floods or droughts, can make fragile states more vulnerable to conflict. The US Department of Defense stated in a July 29, 2015 report to Congress, “Global climate change will aggravate problems such as poverty, social tensions, environmental degradation, ineffectual leadership and weak political institutions that threaten stability in a number of countries.” LARGE IMAGE

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'Really Extreme' Global Weather Event Leaves Scientists Aghast

Fairfax - Peter Hannam

Climate scientists are used to seeing the range of weather extremes stretched by global warming but few episodes appear as remarkable as this week's unusual heat over the Arctic.
Zack Labe, a researcher at the University of California at Irvine, said average daily temperatures above the northern latitude of 80 degrees have broken away from any previous recordings in the past 60 years.

"It's just wrong": This week's unusual burst of heat over the Arctic. Photo: Climate Reanalyzer

Source: http://sites.uci.edu/zlabe/arctic-temperatures/

"To have zero degrees at the North Pole in February - it's just wrong," said Amelie Meyer, a researcher of ice-ocean interactions with the Norwegian Polar Institute. "It's quite worrying."

The Arctic Ocean has endured another warmer-than-average winter in a region that is warming much faster than the rest of the planet. Photo: NASA

The so-called Polar Vortex - a zone of persistient low-pressure that typically keeps high-latitude cold air separate from regions further south - has been weakening for decades.
In this instance, "a massive jet of warm air" is penetrating north, sending a cold burst southwards, said Dr Meyer, who has relocated to Hobart to research on the southern hemisphere, and is hosted by Australia's Integrated Marine Observing System.
"The anomalies are really extreme," Andrew King, a lecturer in climate science at the University of Melbourne, said. "It's a very interesting event."
Warm, moist air is penetrating much further north than it would normally at a time when the North Pole is in complete darkness.
Cape Morris Jessup, the world's most northerly land-based weather station, in Greenland, touched 6 degrees late on Saturday, about 35 degrees above normal for this time of year.
Robert Rohede, a Zurich-based scientist with Berkeley Earth, posted on Twitter that Cape Morris Jessup had already recorded 61 hours above freezing so far in 2018.
The previous record of such relative was just 16 hours recorded to the end of April in 2011.
"Parts of Greenland are quite a bit warmer than most of Europe," Dr King said.
The cold snap will sink temperatures moderately below freezing in London each day until Friday. However, cities such as Berlin will dive to as low as minus 12 degrees and Moscow to minus 24.
With a weak jetstream, surface winds are taking an unusual course - bringing snow from the east and prompting some commentators to dub the event the "Beast from the East".
"For Britain and Ireland, most weather systems would typically blow in from the west, but [on Tuesday] we will see a cold front cross Britain from the east," Dr King said.

IMAGE

Along with the unusual warmth over the Arctic, scientists are monitoring the retreat of sea ice in the Bering Sea.
The ice coverage in the region is now at levels previously seen only in May or June, Mr Labe posted on Twitter, citing data from the US National Snow and Ice Data Centre.
While climate change itself is only likely to have exacerbated regional weather variability, the long-term shrinkage of sea ice has a reinforcing effect on global warming in a region already warming faster than anywhere else on the planet, Dr King said.
Ice reflects sunlight back to space. When it melts, the sea ice exposes more of the dark ocean beneath, which then absorbs that solar radiation, adding to the warming.
Sea ice coverage is currently at or close to record low levels at both the Arctic and Antarctic regions.
The impact of the relatively warm air in the Arctic could play out for months to come. Multi-year ice is likely to be thinner and more cracked, leading to a faster melt when spring arrives, Dr Meyer said.
While researchers had pegged 2050 as a possible year when the Arctic will become ice-free, this winter and the previous one - also unusually warm - had thrown those estimates out.
"It's going much faster than we thought," said Dr Meyer, who will begin work later this year at the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes.

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