28/02/2018

Need To Explain To People What Climate Change Means In Daily Life: UN Environ Chief

Times of India - Press Trust of India

Executive Director of the United Nations Environment Programme, Erik Solheim.
NEW DELHI: United Nations environment chief Erik Solheim has said spouting "doom and gloom" while talking about climate change will not work and stressed that there was a need to present it in a "simpler" language that explains to people what it really means for them in their daily lives.
He also noted that plastic pollution is similar to climate change and if steps are not taken to curb it now, reversing it will be "almost impossible".
As far as India is concerned, he said, it views environmental issues very much as a moral obligation and has got what it takes to lead the world into this change.
Solheim said a lot of people find the topic of climate change "boring".
"The problem with climate change is that it's a long-term phenomenon involving some quite complex science. It does not surprise me that a lot of people find the topic boring, and frankly we are never going to bore people into action. And if we continue to spout doom-and-gloom, then people just switch off," he said.
He said that when the issue of climate change is discussed mostly the focus has been on the problem and the risks and that needed to change. "People want to see solutions, and to understand how they can contribute. It is time for a global mass movement for the environment, one that has never been seen before."
"For this to happen, we have to speak in a different language that is simpler and breaks down the science to explain to people what climate change really means for them, in their daily lives, here and now," the executive director of the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) told PTI.
"We have to make it a dinner table conversation," he said, "in other words, we need to help people connect with this issue in a way that makes it personal, and not abstract."
It could be about things like house prices, the cost of insurance policies, the impact on food prices or the link to mass migration, he said.
On the issue of plastic pollution, he said it has been caused by "laziness and a failure" of imagination and innovation which needs to change. He said an astounding amount of plastic is produced every year, much of which is often used for a few seconds and discarded.
"Plastic pollution is similar to climate change. If we don't step on the brakes now, it will be almost impossible to reverse."
He pointed out that this year an estimated 360 million tonnes of plastic will be produced and one-third of this will be non-recyclable.
"So imagine where this plastic is going. It is in our oceans and water bodies. It is in landfills and on our beaches. This year World Environment Day will bring the focus on plastic pollution, calling on people all over the world to 'refuse what you cannot re-use'," he said.
Tackling plastic pollution requires one to make a big push on three fronts, he said.
Firstly, people need to know that there are many simple steps they can take to reduce their own plastic footprint like "do we really need straws or apples wrapped in copious amounts of plastic? We don't and we can change that."
"Second, 40 per cent of used plastic currently goes to landfill, when it could serve countless other uses. We need to recycle and re-use whatever we can. Thirdly, and this is where business comes in, we need to look at the whole life of a product and our consumption and trade systems."
"It is no longer possible for us to design products that are thrown away immediately after use," he said. "We need to re-think designs...and there are tremendous opportunities for businesses here."
Solheim was in India for a week where among others, he signed a letter of intent on India hosting the World Environment Day on June 5.
Talking about efforts being made in India in this direction, he expressed his delight that the country is the global host of World Environment Day 2018 and will be leading the push to save the oceans and the planet.
"India has very high rates of recycling, and in recent years, some of the biggest citizen action movements have happened in this country- for example, the Versova beach clean up in Mumbai," he said.
"So India has what it takes to lead the world into this change," he said.
"It is a booming economy with the innovation and business expertise to change the way we make and use products. And it is a country that views environmental issues very much as a moral obligation, to give back to people, nature and the world," he added.

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The Art Of Climate Change Gallery 4: What Can We Do To Address Climate Change?

Environmental Graphiti

Environmental Graphiti® is a venture that uses art to dramatize the critical science of climate change in an effort to expand public awareness of this urgent issue.
ART makes the science more accessible. Science makes the art more meaningful. Together they tell the story of climate change in a unique and powerful way.
The art in this series is based on the compelling data that describes the various factors that have contributed to climate change over the last two hundred years. Click on image title to see graphic data source.

Gallery 4: What Can We Do To Address Climate Change?
Animal Vs Plant-Based Foods - Impact On Resources
Decreasing the amount of meat we eat, especially red meat, could cut in half the per capita greenhouse gas emissions relating to agriculture, help avoid further deforestation and reduce the amount of water used for agricultural purposes. This could have a significant effect - 80% of the water used in the U.S. is for agricultural purposes and the amount required for meat production is significantly more than that used for plant production. LARGE IMAGE
U.S. Electric Vehicle Sales By Model
Since 2011 sales of electric vehicles have steadily increased, except for a dip in 2015 due to low gas prices. The record-breaking growth of 2016 is expected to continue into 2017. The number of car manufacturers offering electric vehicles has also increased significantly over this measurement period. LARGE IMAGE

Falling Costs For Clean Energy Technologies
In 2015 the US Dept of Energy updated its "Revolution Now" report which highlights "four transformational technologies:  land-based wind power, silicon photovoltaic (PV) solar modules, light-emitting diodes (LEDS) and electric vehicles (EVs)."  The report shows how "dramatic reductions in cost are driving a surge in consumer, industrial and commercial adoption for these clean energy technologies..." LARGE IMAGE

Global Subsidies - Fossil Fuels Vs Renewables
Global fossil fuel subsidies totaled $544 billion in 2012, compared to only $101 billion for renewables. The International Monetary Fund estimates fossil fuel subsidies for 2015 to be $5.3 trillion - an amount equal to 6.5% of global GDP. More than 40% of this represents subsidies for coal, the most environmentally damaging of all fossil fuels. Although not good news on its face, the disproportionate funding for fossil fuels represents a tremendous opportunity to shift funding to renewable energy without an overall increase in costs. LARGE IMAGE

Wasted Food
When considered on a weight basis, about a third of our planet’s food produced for human consumption is lost or wasted. The green house gas emissions attributable to the production, distribution, and disposal of this food are so great that, if considered to be its own “country”, it would be the third-largest emitter, after China and the United States. The value of this lost food on a global basis is estimated to be over $900 billion annually. Reducing this waste would be a huge victory for the environment and for the global economy. LARGE IMAGE

66%
According to a 2015 poll conducted by the New York Times, Stanford University and the non partisan environmental research group, Resources for the Future, 66% of Americans would be more likely to vote for a candidate that says:  “Global warming has been happening and we need to stop the damage. It’s time to use new forms of domestic renewable energy and manufacture cars and appliances that use less gas and electricity.” LARGE IMAGE

Green Jobs - By The Numbers
This digital painting uses a random selection of statistics about "green jobs" to create the background texture of the piece.  Some of the numbers used are: "In 2015 there were 2.5 million green jobs in the US.""(E)nergy efficient retrofits in the United States could create more than 3.3 million cumulative job years of employment." "Employment in electric power generation now totals 860,869 jobs, up 13%." "In embracing wind power, Texas created nearly 25,000 jobs." "LEED certified buildings drive 3.3 million US jobs...and are expected to generate $190.3 billion in labor earnings in 2017." "Solar technologies employ almost 375,000 workers, or 43 percent of the electric power generation work force.  (Coal, by contrast accounts for about 86,000 workers.)" LARGE IMAGE

Sources Of U.S. Non-Nuclear Renewable Electricity
Non-nuclear source renewable energy in the United States has increased from 2,978 trillion Btu in 1950 to 9,298 in 2013. LARGE IMAGE

Projected Share Of Renewable Electricity Generation
The percentage of total electricity generation from renewable energy sources in the U.S. is projected to grow from 13% (in 2013) to as much as 22% in 2040. However, the anticipated share of electricity generation is significantly affected by various factors, particularly the future price and volume of available oil and gas resources. LARGE IMAGE

ASAP
The Paris Agreement, adopted by 196 countries in December 2015, recognizes that “…climate change represents an urgent and potentially irreversible threat to human societies and the planet…” and emphasizes “…the need for urgency in addressing climate change…” Signatory nations pledged to avoid the most catastrophic impacts by keeping post-industrial age warming to 2 degrees Celsius or below, with a goal of 1.5 degrees, if possible. Certain climate models predict that if carbon emissions continue at current levels, the earth will exceed the 2 degrees Celsius threshold before the middle of this century. “Most scientists concur that two degrees C of warming …would harm all sectors of civilization—food, water, health, land, national security, energy and economic prosperity.” Michael E. Mann, “Earth Will Cross the Climate Danger Threshold by 2036”, Scientific American, April 1, 2014. LARGE IMAGE

The Politics Of Climate Change
According to PRRI, a nonprofit, nonpartisan research organization, "... Democrats are three times as likely as Republicans to say the earth is warming and that humans are to blame." Climate change affects all of us, regardless of political affiliation. If we each work to remove the political lens through which we view the science, we can begin to address this urgent issue, together. LARGE IMAGE

Economic Damage From Temperature Increase
The cost of the struggle against climate change is expected to rise with the expected rise in global temperature. A rapid and energized response over the next few decades, could reduce that cost by half. LARGE IMAGE

The Duck Chart
First published by CAISO*  in 2013, the “Duck Chart” illustrates the challenge of “net load” – the difference between forecasted demand and expected electricity production from variable generation resources like solar and wind. “In certain times of the year, these curves produce a 'belly' appearance in the mid-afternoon that quickly ramps up to produce an 'arch' similar to the neck of a duck—hence the industry moniker of “The Duck Chart”. The risk of over-generation can be mitigated in various ways, including: increasing demand by expanding service to undersupplied areas; offering consumers incentives to use energy during parts of the day when supply is highest; improvidng efficiency ofenergy storage; and increasing power plant flextibility to respond more quickly to changing conditions.(*California Independent System Operator Corporation) LARGE IMAGE

97% Consensus
"Multiple studies published in peer-reviewed scientific journals1 show that 97 percent or more of actively publishing climate scientists agree: Climate-warming trends over the past century are extremely likely due to human activities. In addition, most of the leading scientific organizations worldwide have issued public statements endorsing this position." https://climate.nasa.gov/scientific-consensus/ Accessed Feb 1, 2018 LARGE IMAGE

No Carbon Electricity Generation Share - Europe And US
 European countries have substantially increased no-carbon generation since 2002 by adding renewables to the energy source mix. Of the 24 countries listed in the chart, 13 generate at least 50%, 18 generate at least 33%, and the United States generates just over 30%, of energy from no-carbon sources. LARGE IMAGE

Reforestation
Tree planting on previously forested sites (reforestation) or on sites not previously forested (aforestation) is one of the carbon offset strategies that help fight climate change. Trees remove CO2 from the atmosphere and store it in biomass. Under the terms of the 2014 New York Declaration on Forests, world leaders - government, business and NGOs - pledged on a voluntary basis to cut deforestation in half by 2020, end it by 2030, and restore an area of forest and cropland larger in size than India. LARGE IMAGE

Fiscal And Environmental Gain From Removing Subsidies
According to the International Monetary fund, “The fiscal, environmental, and welfare impacts of energy subsidy reform are potentially enormous. Eliminating post-tax subsidies in 2015 could raise government revenue by $2.9 trillion (3.6 percent of global GDP), cut global CO2 emissions by more than 20 percent, and cut pre-mature air pollution deaths by more than half. After allowing for the higher energy costs faced by consumers, this action would raise global economic welfare by $1.8 trillion (2.2 percent of global GDP).” LARGE IMAGE


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Why Scientists Have Modelled Climate Change Right Up To The Year 2300

The Conversation

kwest / shutterstock
The seas will continue to rise for 300 years. That’s the conclusion of a new study, published in Nature Communications, which projects how much the sea level will rise under varying degrees of success in tackling climate change right up to the year 2300.
But 2300 is almost three centuries from now. Three centuries ago the industrial revolution hadn’t even started. This raises the question of whether, when considering present-day climate policy, there is any value at all in considering such distant futures.
After all, the Paris Agreement on climate change hasn’t set its global temperature rise targets beyond the end of the current century. And even this appears too remote a horizon to motivate emissions cuts in the near future. Therefore, Paris focuses on five-year climate policy cycles starting in 2018, which are more in line with typical political and business cycles, and in tune with our everyday concerns.
I believe it’s a ‘climate agreement’, captain. They were popular in the 21st century. NBC
Nonetheless, multiple climate studies do consider projections of the far future. For instance, one paper estimated that, if we fail to tackle climate change, the Arctic Ocean could be ice-free all year round somewhere between 2150 and 2250. Another study looked at carbon emissions from thawing permafrost as far out as the year 2500.
The obvious criticism is that such work is mere fiction, driven by the intellectual curiosity of a small group of highly specialised scientists, rather than anything relevant to daily life. And in any case, critics might argue, won’t we figure something out in the next century or two that could tackle climate change and prove all the predictions of doom and gloom unfounded?

Emissions will still be linked to the economy
As is often the case, the truth is a little bit more complex.
The first thing to note is that a certain amount of climate change is already “locked in”. Our use of energy and other resources is not going to slow down any time soon, as poorer countries race to industrialise and catch up with the global leaders, while more affluent nations aim to maintain and further improve their living standards. Most people can relate to these aspirations, even if the upshot is they ensure that global emissions stay at their current high levels.
Solar is nice – but not enough. xieyuliang/Shutterstock
Solar and wind power will of course help, but the reality is that such technologies are still nowhere near enough to radically alter the link between emissions and economic expansion. Despite the renewables boom, 2017 saw a 2% rise in global emissions following a three-year plateau. Experts argue that making serious emissions cuts will require much more ambitious efforts across nearly all economic activities, including energy, urbanisation, infrastructure, transport, heavy industries and land use.

We can predict future growth
This brings us back to the very long-term scenarios used by climate scientists. These scenarios are actually based on credible assumptions about a large set of long-term socio-economic and technological drivers that define contrasting futures for the world as a whole. And it turns out that things which will affect future emissions and climate, like the rates of technological progress, or population and wealth growth, are likely going to be constrained within a reasonably predictable range. Even if one includes the possibility of “game-changing technologies”, for example a hypothetical new generation of much cheaper and more effective batteries for electric cars, the world is almost certainly going to stay within this range of scenarios.
Predictable (sort of). Tithi Luadthong/Shutterstock
 This is where climate science comes into play. As certain physical processes triggered by global warming are relatively slow, their full impact won’t be apparent for hundreds of years. Consider the ice sheets found in Greenland and Antarctica, for instance, both so big that they respond to climate change only slowly. However, once triggered, and the ice starts sliding towards the oceans, causing the sea level to rise, the melting process takes centuries to reverse. Something similar is happening with thawing permafrost, which releases additional greenhouse gases into the atmosphere.
Both rising sea levels and thawing permafrost could impact hundreds of millions of people, particularly those living in coastal areas or hotter climates. But if we want to know how much we should be worried, then climate predictions up until 2050 won’t cut it – the world may still be warming at that point, even if we stopped emitting carbon overnight. Given the future of the world is bound within a reasonably predictable range of scenarios, it therefore makes sense to estimate the risks posed by these slow physical processes, by extending the analysis as far out as 2300.

Why sea levels in 2300 matter
Back to the original study. Its main result was that the sea level could still rise by up to 1.2 metres (4ft) by 2300 even under a very optimistic climate scenario where the global temperature never rises more than 2℃ above pre-industrial levels. That is, even if manmade emissions peak within the next two decades, then drop down to zero no later than by 2070 and remain at zero from then onwards – sea levels would still rise by more than a metre.
Antarctica may continue melting for centuries. Denis Burdin / shutterstock
Achieving zero net emissions within the next 30 to 50 years will be hard enough. But the study shows that even if this ambitious target is achieved, sea levels will continue to rise for the following two centuries. This is a climate time bomb for coastal areas. Though it may not seem like a lot, a 1.2-metre sea level rise will still force megacities such as London and New York to spend billions to maintain flood defences in the face of stronger storm surges.
Achieving zero emissions is therefore not enough to prevent the long-term effects of sea level rise from kicking in. To bring temperatures back to at least the current levels – that is around 1℃ above pre-industrial – we’ll need negative emissions technologies that draw carbon directly out of the atmosphere.
This is an important long-term policy result that was made possible by considering extended time horizons. By reaching as far out as 2300, we have reaffirmed the need to take ambitious climate action in the more immediate future.

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