24/03/2018

Paul Ehrlich: 'Collapse Of Civilisation Is A Near Certainty Within Decades'

The Guardian - 

Fifty years after the publication of his controversial book The Population Bomb, biologist Paul Ehrlich warns overpopulation and overconsumption are driving us over the edge
The toxification of the planet with synthetic chemicals may be more dangerous to people and wildlife than climate change, says Ehrlich. Photograph: Linh Pham/Getty Images
A shattering collapse of civilisation is a “near certainty” in the next few decades due to humanity’s continuing destruction of the natural world that sustains all life on Earth, according to biologist Prof Paul Ehrlich.
In May, it will be 50 years since the eminent biologist published his most famous and controversial book, The Population Bomb. But Ehrlich remains as outspoken as ever.
Prof Paul Ehrlich of Stanford University.
Photograph: Alamy Stock Photo 
The world’s optimum population is less than two billion people – 5.6 billion fewer than on the planet today, he argues, and there is an increasing toxification of the entire planet by synthetic chemicals that may be more dangerous to people and wildlife than climate change.
Ehrlich also says an unprecedented redistribution of wealth is needed to end the over-consumption of resources, but “the rich who now run the global system – that hold the annual ‘world destroyer’ meetings in Davos – are unlikely to let it happen”.
The Population Bomb, written with his wife Anne Ehrlich in 1968, predicted “hundreds of millions of people are going to starve to death” in the 1970s – a fate that was avoided by the green revolution in intensive agriculture.
Many details and timings of events were wrong, Paul Ehrlich acknowledges today, but he says the book was correct overall.
“Population growth, along with over-consumption per capita, is driving civilisation over the edge: billions of people are now hungry or micronutrient malnourished, and climate disruption is killing people.”
Make modern contraception and back-up abortion available to all and give women full equal rights, pay and opportunities
Ehrlich has been at Stanford University since 1959 and is also president of the Millennium Alliance for Humanity and the Biosphere, which works “to reduce the threat of a shattering collapse of civilisation”.
“It is a near certainty in the next few decades, and the risk is increasing continually as long as perpetual growth of the human enterprise remains the goal of economic and political systems,” he says. “As I’ve said many times, ‘perpetual growth is the creed of the cancer cell’.”
It is the combination of high population and high consumption by the rich that is destroying the natural world, he says. Research published by Ehrlich and colleagues in 2017 concluded that this is driving a sixth mass extinction of biodiversity, upon which civilisation depends for clean air, water and food.
High consumption by the rich is destroying the natural world, says Ehrlich. Photograph: Paulo Whitaker/Reuters
The solutions are tough, he says. “To start, make modern contraception and back-up abortion available to all and give women full equal rights, pay and opportunities with men.
“I hope that would lead to a low enough total fertility rate that the needed shrinkage of population would follow. [But] it will take a very long time to humanely reduce total population to a size that is sustainable.”
It will take a very long time to humanely reduce total population to a size that is sustainable
He estimates an optimum global population size at roughly 1.5 to two billion, “But the longer humanity pursues business as usual, the smaller the sustainable society is likely to prove to be. We’re continuously harvesting the low-hanging fruit, for example by driving fisheries stocks to extinction.”
Ehrlich is also concerned about chemical pollution, which has already reached the most remote corners of the globe. “The evidence we have is that toxics reduce the intelligence of children, and members of the first heavily influenced generation are now adults.”
He treats this risk with characteristic dark humour: “The first empirical evidence we are dumbing down Homo sapiens were the Republican debates in the US 2016 presidential elections – and the resultant kakistocracy. On the other hand, toxification may solve the population problem, since sperm counts are plunging.”
Plastic pollution found in the most remote places on the planet show nowhere is safe from human impact. Photograph: Conor McDonnell 
Reflecting five decades after the publication of The Population Bomb (which he wanted to be titled Population, Resources, and Environment), he says: “No scientist would hold exactly the same views after a half century of further experience, but Anne and I are still proud of our book.” It helped start a worldwide debate on the impact of rising population that continues today, he says.
The book’s strength, Ehrlich says, is that it was short, direct and basically correct. “Its weaknesses were not enough on overconsumption and equity issues. It needed more on women’s rights, and explicit countering of racism – which I’ve spent much of my career and activism trying to counter.
“Too many rich people in the world is a major threat to the human future, and cultural and genetic diversity are great human resources.”
Accusations that the book lent support to racist attitudes to population control still hurt today, Ehrlich says. “Having been a co-inventor of the sit-in to desegregate restaurants in Lawrence, Kansas in the 1950s and having published books and articles on the biological ridiculousness of racism, those accusations continue to annoy me.”
But, he says: “You can’t let the possibility that ignorant people will interpret your ideas as racist keep you from discussing critical issues honestly.”

More of Paul and Anne Ehrlich’s reflections on their book are published in The Population Bomb Revisited.

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Britain Blocks Plans For New Coal Mine On Climate Grounds

Reuters - Susanna Twidale

LONDON - Britain has rejected plans for a new open cast coal mine in northeastern England, as it could hamper efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and curb climate change, the minister for local government said on Friday.
A view of the slopes of the Banks Group Shotton open cast mine in Northumberland, Britain, November 11, 2016. Picture taken November 11, 2016. REUTERS/Barbara Lewis/File Photo
Supporters of the project had said it could bring much needed jobs to the region, while environmental campaigners said it would go against Britain’s commitment to reduce greenhouse gases.
Britain plans to phase-out coal use at its power stations by 2025 as a part of its efforts to meet its climate targets, and is part of an international alliance pushing other countries to do the same.
Northumberland County Council agreed last year that the mine’s developer The Banks Group could extract 3 million tonnes of coal by cutting an open cast, or surface mine, near Druridge Bay, Highthorn.
But local government minister Sajid Javid rejected the application on Friday following a public inquiry, government documents show.
“The scheme would have an adverse effect on greenhouse gas emissions and climate change of very substantial significance, which he gives very considerable weight in the planning balance,” the government report, rejecting the application said.
Gavin Styles, managing director at the mine’s developer Banks Mining, said Britain was still dependent on coal for a number of purposes and the decision had been taken for “purely political reasons.”
A digger at the Banks Group Shotton open cast coal mine in Northumberland, November 11, 2016. Picture taken November 11, 2016. REUTERS/Barbara Lewis/File Photo
“The importance of securing investment in North East England, creating dozens of high quality local jobs, and opening up opportunities for regional suppliers to win substantial contracts could not be any clearer,” he said in an emailed statement.
The company said the project could employ 100 people and generate almost 50 million pounds ($70.43 million) in related contracts and other benefits to the community.
Styles said the company would carefully review the decision before deciding on the most appropriate next steps to take.
Environmentalists had criticized the plans, saying it would destroy an area of natural beauty and that extracting more coal is at odds with international pledges to reduce greenhouse gas emissions under the Paris climate pact.
“This is the first coal mine ever to be rejected in the UK because of climate change impacts – a vindication for everyone who has been calling for fossil fuels to be left in the ground,” said Rose Dickinson, campaigner with environmental group Friends of the Earth.
Britain has a legally binding target to cut emissions of harmful greenhouse gases, such as those produced by fossil-fuel-based power plants, by 80 percent from 1990 levels by 2050.
It has also signed up to the international Paris agreement to curb emissions.

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Coal Plant Construction Extends Dive - But Not Fast Enough: Report

Fairfax - Peter Hannam

Coal-fired power is on track to start shrinking globally by 2022, dimming prospects for exporters of the fossil fuel, including Australia, according to a report by environmental groups.
China and India, which have dominated construction of new power plants for more than a decade, both cut new capacity sharply for the second year in a row in 2017, the annual Boom and Bust report by Greenpeace, Sierra Club and CoalSwarm found.
On current trends, coal plant capacity worldwide could peak by 2022. Photo: AP
Taking into account plants that closed, China's net addition in 2017 was its lowest since 2003. For India, last year's newly operating capacity of 9 gigawatts was the smallest since 2009.
"China and India were once seen as countries blocking progress on climate change," Nikola Casule, a Greenpeace climate and energy campaigner, said. "That's clearly no longer the case."
By most measures, world approvals and construction of new coal-fired plants extended declines for a second year. Newly completed power stations were down 41 per cent compared with two years earlier to 60.2 GW, while construction starts were down 73 per cent to 45.9 GW, the report said.
With 97 GW of coal plants retiring in the past three years alone - almost half of that in the US - the world's coal fleet is on track to begin shrinking by 2022, it said.

Still, since coal plants typically have a design life of 40 years or more, the rates of retirements and cancelled projects both need to speed up if global carbon emission reduction targets are to be reached.
"In order to meet the goals of the 2015 Paris climate agreement, the current pace of progress must be accelerated, including cancelling coal power projects under development and hastening retirement of aging coal fleets in Europe and the United States," it said.
The global trends raise questions about the outlook for Australia's coal export markets, and the wisdom of government support to open up major new mines such as Adani's planned Carmichael project in Queensland's Galilee Basin, Dr Casule said.
"The worst thing you could do is to build one of the world's biggest coal mines," he said.
The Australian Financial Review this week reported Adani is refusing to set a funding deadline after admitting that it would fail to meet a set-imposed target for the end of this month.
Tumbling prices for renewable energy, particularly solar panels, combined with the global agreement to reduce carbon emissions, mean the challenges for the thermal industry will continue to mount.
Instead, it was incumbent on governments and industry to prepare coal-mining communities for their inevitable decline.
"It would be a betrayal of Australians if we didn't plan for that transition," Dr Casule said.
The NSW Minerals Council declined to comment. Earlier this month, the industry lobby group said exports of thermal coal used in power plants reached 140 million tonnes in 2017, slightly down on 2016 but 15 per cent higher than five years earlier.
Matt Canavan, federal resources minister, said coal would "continue to be an important power source for decades to come".
“The International Energy Agency predicts Asian coal demand will increase by almost 12 per cent from 2016 through to 2040," he said.
“The greater use of Australia's higher quality coal will help bring down emissions because Australian coal has more energy content and hence generates fewer emissions."
The mining industry has highlighted prospects for new coal-fired power in south-east Asia.
Indonesia has the most new coal power under construction after China and India, the report found. Still, even there support may be waning as projects get cancelled.

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