03/04/2018

Coalition Backbenchers Unite To Lobby For Coal Under Banner Of Monash Forum

The Guardian

Tony Abbott, Eric Abetz, Kevin Andrews and George Christensen among named members of new forum that claims 20 MPs
A group of 20 Coalition backbenchers has created a group called the Monash Forum to encourage the government to support the coal industry. Photograph: David Gray/Reuters
Twenty Coalition backbench MPs have joined a group warning against the “demonisation” of coal, the Liberal MP Craig Kelly has revealed.
Kelly – the chairman of the government’s backbench committee on the environment and energy – confirmed the existence of the Monash Forum, which supports the use of coal-fired power.
Kelly told Guardian Australia the group’s manifesto was not inconsistent with the Turnbull government’s National Energy Guarantee, which he said was a “good policy”. But the group’s position will add to pressure for government support for a new coal-fired power station.
He confirmed the list of the group’s members published in the Australian includes Tony Abbott, Eric Abetz and Kevin ­Andrews. The former deputy prime minister Barnaby Joyce was reportedly “linked to” the group.
But the Liberal MP Ian Goodenough said he had been part of a social gathering of conservative MPs that discussed policy for “some years” that had recently adopted the name the Monash Forum.
The comments suggest the core of the group is the longstanding “Monkey Pod” conservative grouping in the Liberal Party combined with a group of Nationals MPs.
George Christensen reportedly invited Nationals MPs to join a group “encouraging the government in the promotion of and ­facilitation of and/or construction of coal-fired power stations”.
The Nationals senator John Williams said he supported coal-fired generation and he had replied to a text message to join but had not seen any pledge or manifesto.
The group is named after the first world war general John Monash, owing to his role in opening up Victoria’s ­Latrobe Valley for coal production.
“It’s not like it’s a secret society,” Kelly said, before referring Guardian Australia to Christensen for the text of its manifesto. “One of the aims of the group is to emphasise the importance of coal-fired generation.
“Coal is demonised by a large section of the community – that demonisation is incorrect, because coal is absolutely vital to the national economy both for export and the generation of cheap, reliable electricity.”
Kelly said if AGL’s Liddell power station were closed, the “optimum outcome for the grid” would be to construct a new coal-fired power station.
He said private-sector investment in coal might not be forthcoming due to possible technological change and changes to climate policy by a future government so “the government may need to step in and assist the build” of a new power station.
Kelly said the Monash Forum’s manifesto stopped short of calling for a specific form of government support for coal, describing it as a statement of principles stressing the need for coal as a “low-cost electricity for consumers and industry”.
Asked why the government should support coal if the private sector refused and renewables continued to become cheaper, Kelly said: “No matter how much solar and wind you have, you’re going to need some baseload power.”
AGL plans to replace its ageing Liddell power station with renewables, batteries, gas power, upgraded coal power and demand response, and has resisted government calls to sell the power station to prevent its closure.
Williams said if AGL refused to sell to a private buyer, the government should compulsorily acquire it to on-sell or “as a last resort” run the plant itself.
Goodenough said he wanted to “explore options for a cost-effective and reliable way of supplying power with the lowest emissions practicable”.
“I would generally not advocate for government subsidies for any form of power generation, preferring the technology to be financially sustainable on its own merits,” he said.
The Turnbull government’s energy guarantee is still being designed by the Energy Security Board and requires sign-off by the states before proposed reliability and emissions reduction requirements are imposed.
At a press conference on Tuesday Malcolm Turnbull said the National Energy Guarantee provides “every incentive for the energy sector to invest in dispatchable power”.
He said the Neg “puts a premium on dispatchability” which can be provided by coal, gas and hydro-electric power.
Earlier, the energy and environment minister, Josh Frydenberg, said the Monash group and the government wanted “exactly the same thing”.
“[The Neg] will deliver more affordable and reliable energy without subsidies, taxes or trading schemes, levelling the playing field for all types of generation,” he said in a statement.
“Independent modelling undertaken by the ESB suggests coal will continue to remain part of the energy mix making up more than half of supply in 2030.”
Labor’s climate change spokesman, Mark Butler, said the Monash Group “exemplifies how chaotic energy policy has become [under] the Liberals”.
“The energy industry has been clear they have no appetite for building new coal-fired power stations,” he said.
“New coal is more expensive and more polluting than alternatives, yet the hard right want to waste taxpayers’ money on their coal fantasies demanding Malcolm Turnbull to guarantee new investment in coal-fired power.”

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Underwater Melting Of Antarctic Ice Far Greater Than Thought, Study Finds

The Guardian

The base of the ice around the south pole shrank by 1,463 square kilometres between 2010 and 2016
An Adelie penguin standing on a block of melting ice in East Antarctica. Photograph: Reuters
Hidden underwater melt-off in the Antarctic is doubling every 20 years and could soon overtake Greenland to become the biggest source of sea-level rise, according to the first complete underwater map of the world’s largest body of ice.
Warming waters have caused the base of ice near the ocean floor around the south pole to shrink by 1,463 square kilometres – an area the size of Greater London – between 2010 and 2016, according to the new study published in Nature Geoscience.
The research by the UK Centre for Polar Observation and Modelling at the University of Leeds suggests climate change is affecting the Antarctic more than previously believed and is likely to prompt global projections of sea-level rise to be revised upward.
Until recently, the Antarctic was seen as relatively stable. Viewed from above, the extent of land and sea ice in the far south has not changed as dramatically as in the far north.
But the new study found even a small increase in temperature has been enough to cause a loss of five metres every year from the bottom edge of the ice sheet, some of which is more than 2km underwater.
“What’s happening is that Antarctica is being melted away at its base. We can’t see it, because it’s happening below the sea surface,” said Professor Andrew Shepherd, one of the authors of the paper. “The changes mean that very soon the sea-level contribution from Antarctica could outstrip that from Greenland.”
The study measures the Antarctic’s “grounding line” – the bottommost edge of the ice sheet across 16,000km of coastline. This is done by using elevation data from the European Space Agency’s CryoSat-2 and applying Archimedes’s principle of buoyancy, which relates the thickness of floating ice to the height of its surface.
Guardian graphic. Source: Nature
The greatest declines were seen in west Antarctica. At eight of the ice sheet’s 65 biggest glaciers, the speed of retreat was more than five times the rate of deglaciation since the last ice age. Even in east Antarctica, where some scientists – and many climate deniers – had previously believed ice might be increasing based on surface area, glaciers were at best stable and at worst in retreat when underwater ice was taken into account.
“It should give people more cause for concern,” said Shepherd. “Now that we have mapped the whole edge of the ice sheet, it rules out any chance that parts of Antarctica are advancing. We see retreat in more places and stasis elsewhere. The net effect is that the ice sheet overall is retreating. People can’t say ‘you’ve left a stone unturned’. We’ve looked everywhere now.”
The results could prompt an upward revision of sea-level rise projections. 10 years ago, the main driver was Greenland. More recently, the Antarctic’s estimated contribution has been raised by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. But its forecasts were based on measurements from the two main west Antarctic glaciers – Thwaites and Pine Island – a sample that provides an overly narrow and conservative view of what is happening when compared with the new research.
The study’s lead author, Hannes Konrad, said there was now clear evidence that the underwater glacial retreat is happening across the ice sheet.
“This retreat has had a huge impact on inland glaciers,” he said, “because releasing them from the sea bed removes friction, causing them to speed up and contribute to global sea level rise.”

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Stunning Drops In Solar, Wind Costs Mean Economic Case For Coal, Gas Is ‘Crumbling’

ThinkProgressJoe Romm

Things are only going to get tougher for gas and coal compared to renewables.
Solar power prices are dropping at record rates. CREDIT: Acera.
Prices for solar, wind, and battery storage are dropping so rapidly that renewables are increasingly squeezing out all forms of fossil fuel power, including natural gas.
The cost of new solar plants dropped 20 percent over the past 12 months, while onshore wind prices dropped 12 percent, according to the latest Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) report. Since 2010, the prices for lithium-ion batteries — crucial to energy storage — have plummeted a stunning 79 percent (see chart).

Lithium-ion battery prices have plummeted since 2010 and are projected to keep dropping.
“The economic case for building new coal and gas capacity is crumbling,” as BNEF’s chief of energy economics, Elena Giannakopoulou, told Bloomberg.
At the same time, solar and wind plants — which are increasingly being built with battery storage — are eating into the utilization of existing coal and gas plants, making them far less profitable. For instance, the super-efficient combined-cycle gas turbine (CCGT) plants that have been popular in recent decades, were designed to be used at full power between 60 percent and 90 percent of the time.
But their actual utilization rate (also called the “capacity factor”) has been plummeting in recent years, and is now close to a mere 20 percent in countries as diverse as China, Germany, and India (see chart).

Solar and wind are squeezing out coal and gas worldwide.
Arizona regulators “recently refused to endorse plans by three power companies that included more natural-gas facilities,” the New York Times reported Wednesday. “Commissioners directed them to make greater use of energy storage and plants that produce zero emissions.”
In California, the world’s sixth-biggest economy now mandates that half its power in 2030 be renewable. With solar and wind prices plummeting, NRG Energy recently said it would shutter three gas-fired plants.
And things are only going to get tougher for gas and coal compared to renewables. BNEF’s projection of current and future prices for this country shows that onshore wind (left chart) is already cheaper than coal, and is becoming cheaper than gas. Solar photovoltaics (right chart) is rapidly becoming cheaper than coal and will beat gas within several years.

Renewables don't just out-compete coal in America. Wind power and, increasingly, solar photovoltaics (PV), can beat a natural gas combined-cycle gas turbine (CCGT).
Globally, coal, and especially gas, are in even tougher shape. That’s because most places in the world don’t have cheap natural gas from fracking like the United States does.
Also, the biggest new power markets are in developing countries, which don’t have as expansive of an electric grid, again making distributed renewables relatively more attractive. But those countries often have a lot of relatively inexpensive undeveloped land in very sunny places.
According to BNEF’s projection of current and future prices for coal and gas versus wind and solar in China, onshore wind (left chart) is already cheaper than gas and is quickly becoming cheaper than coal. Solar (right chart) is rapidly becoming cheaper than gas and will beat coal within several years.

Within a few years, onshore wind and solar will each beat both coal and gas in China.
In the Middle East, the economics of solar power and batteries are so good that SoftBank Group is partnering with Saudi Arabia to build a stunning 200 gigawatts of solar power capacity for $200 billion. This is 100 times larger than the largest solar farm ever proposed.
Softbank said this week that the system will supply “evening hour” power to the Saudis thanks to what will be “the largest utility-scale battery” in two to three years, Bloomberg reported. The future could not be sunnier for renewables.

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