20/04/2018

'Cooked': Study Finds Great Barrier Reef Transformed By Mass Bleaching

FairfaxPeter Hannam

Corals in the Great Barrier Reef have a lower tolerance to heat stress than expected, contributing to a permanent transformation of the mix of species in some of most pristine regions, a team of international researchers has found.
The scientists examined the impact of the 2016 marine heatwave that alone caused the death of about one-third of the Great Barrier Reef corals, mostly centred on the northern third section.
They studied how much abnormal heat triggers bleaching, the additional heat that killed the corals, and the accumulation needed to cause "an ecological collapse in the transformation of species", said Terry Hughes, Director of the ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies at James Cook University, and the lead of author of the paper published Thursday in Nature.
The thresholds "are lower than we thought they would be", Professor Hughes told Fairfax Media.
Bleaching in the northern part of the Great Barrier Reef in 2016 triggered widespread mortality of corals within weeks, scientists found. Photo: AAP
A key guide is the number of so-called degree-heating weeks (DHW), such as waters a degree above average for a certain period. If reefs had DHWs of six or more - as about 29 per cent of the reefs suffered - the loss of corals reached 60-90 per cent, Professor Hughes said.
Some species, such as staghorns and tabular corals, were particularly susceptible, while dome-shaped porites corals were relatively resilient.
"The 2016 marine heatwave has triggered the initial phase of that transition [to heat-tolerant reef assemblages] on the northern, most pristine region of the Great Barrier Reef, changing it forever as the intensity of global warming continues to escalate," the paper said.
The fact the northern section - with fewer people, little fishing and almost no water quality issues - was hit so hard was notable.
"There’s almost nowhere to hide from extreme temperatures," Professor Hughes said. "Even the best-managed, most remote place is vulnerable.”
The Nature paper is one of a series being prepared or already published by Professor Hughes and colleagues at James Cook University that examine the unprecedented back-to-back mass bleaching of the Great Barrier Reef in the summers of 2016 and 2017.
Upcoming papers will examine the impacts of the latter event - which mainly hammered the middle section of the Reef - and the scope for recovery.
Fish species are adjusting to the mass mortality of corals - some better than others. Photo: University of Wollongong
Just as coral species responded differently to the heat stress, so too have fish species that depend on them.
Butterfly fish, for instance, feed on only a couple of coral species. “If their diet disappears, so do they," Professor Hughes said. Parrot fish, though, eat mostly seaweed, and will fare better.
Still, most fish depend on branching corals as a nursery - the type of corals that suffered high mortality in the heatwave.
"People have long predicted there will be significant fisheries impact from losing juvenile habitat and we expect that to unfold over the next five years," Professor Hughes said.
Most of what researchers know about reef recovery has come from the study of the aftermath of cyclones.
Such events, though, tend to carve a swathe through the reef, perhaps 50 to 100 kilometres wide, with patchier damage than mass bleaching. Coral larvae come into the void from either side, typically taking a decade for branching corals to recover.
“The scale of the damage from back-to-back bleaching is vastly bigger," Professor Hughes said. "We don’t know yet where the larvae are going to come from, and in what numbers.”

Links

A Decade Of Lost Opportunities

Sydney Morning Herald - Editorial

Back in 2007, Kevin Rudd famously declared climate change ''the great moral challenge of our generation''. Moral or not, that challenge has been met in the intervening years with policy paralysis and blame-shifting. And like a political grim reaper, it has cut a swathe through the leadership of the major parties.
As the fire front approaches an RFS crew asseses the perimeter at Barden Ridge, Sydney. Photo: Kate Geraghty
During this whole lost decade of fighting the ''climate wars'' rather than climate change, the challenge has only become steeper. Under the 2015 Paris climate deal, Australia agreed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by at least 26 per cent by 2030. Yet Australia's carbon pollution has risen in each of the past five years.
And if that is not a sufficient wake-up call, how about the fact our bushfire season this year looks like stretching to Anzac Day?
The good news is that an end is in sight, just possibly, to this dismal period of politics being allowed to trump the national and global interest. On Friday, Federal Energy Minister Josh Frydenberg will meet his state counterparts in Canberra for a Council of Australian Governments meeting that will decide if work is to continue on the Turnbull Government's National Energy Guarantee.
The NEG is far from perfect but it is the most promising compromise that has appeared for a long time on the horizon of the interlocking climate and energy debates. It imposes a twin obligation on energy retailers to reduce carbon emissions and at the same time maintain reliability standards. If it works properly, it promises to drive investment in baseload energy supply, support the transition to renewables, prevent avoidable blackouts, and short-circuit soaring household energy bills.
But obstacles remain and COAG is one of them. Thanks to political leaders at all levels placing loyalty to their party above their constituencies, COAG has frequently been the place where reform goes to die. There is almost always an election looming up somewhere to derail bipartisanship and the present moment is no exception, with Victoria, NSW, and possibly the Commonwealth all set to go to the polls over the next 12 months.
On the other side of the ledger, Steven Marshall's recent South Australian Liberal victory removes one obstacle, in the form of that state's headlong rush to renewables under former Premier Jay Weatherill.
The most promising sign of all is that federal Labor is edging towards the NEG tent. Labor wants deeper cuts to emissions than those agreed under Paris but has realised the NEG, far from being an obstacle, may be a tool towards achieving those cuts. This is because, with parliamentary backing, the emissions targets under the NEG could be ratcheted up under a future Government. Other imperfections of the scheme – including too-intermittent reviews, or the possibility states could be punished for pursuing more ambitious targets – could likewise be rectified.
A breakthrough on the NEG would be a major victory for Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull, as well as burnishing Energy Minister Josh Frydenberg's future leadership credentials. But Labor leader Bill Shorten could also gain stature by showing he is capable of recognising a moment when real progress beckons and grasping it. Such sweet reasonableness could even become a template for tackling the unanswered problem of how to reduce greenhouse emissions in other parts of the economy without imposing unnecessary costs and hitting jobs.
So let's be clear: if ever there was a time for state and federal political leaders to rise above partisanship, this is it.

Links

Renewable Energy Capacity Set To Exceed Target Federal Government Said Was Impossible

ABC NewsStephen Letts

Renewable energy capacity of 41,000GWh was deemed to be "impossible", but is now in reach. (Fabrizio Bensch, file photo: Reuters)
Key points
  • Renewable energy capacity is set to exceed 41,000GWh by 2020, a level the coalition government deemed as impossible before it slashed the RET
  • Market already delivered the government's 2030 emission reduction target, rendering the NEG meaningless: Green Energy Markets
  • Business-as-usual under the NEG will lead to 118 million tonne shortfall in the government's CO2 reduction commitment
Australia's renewable energy capacity is set to exceed a target the Federal Government said was impossible to reach by 2020, according to new research from Green Energy Markets.
In its quarterly Renewable Energy Index, GEM said the amount of renewable energy generated in 2020 was set to exceed the original 41,000 Gigawatt hour (GWh) Renewable Energy Target (RET) that was in place before being scrapped in 2015 by the federal government led by then prime minister Tony Abbott.
The original RET was put in place to help Australia meet its 2030 climate change commitment to cut emissions by 26 to 28 per cent from 2005 levels.
It was replaced by a less ambitious target of 33,000 GWh after the Abbott government characterised the original RET as impossible to achieve, while arguing there was already too much generating capacity.
The GEM study funded by activist group GetUp found estimated eligible generation would hit 41,381 GWh by 2020, not only exceeding the current RET, but the original RET as well.
"The Coalition's argument that we can't go any further than the target they've proposed without imposing some kind of huge economic shock and threat to reliability is obviously not true because we're pretty much already there," Green Energy Markets director Tristan Edis said.
"[Energy and Environment minister] Josh Frydenberg himself is saying that all the extra renewable energy that is about to enter the system will substantially push down power prices."
NEG 'meaningless': report
Mr Edis said the Government's National Energy Guarantee (NEG) would in effect deliver no meaningful emission reduction benefit, as projects already under construction and contracted exceed what is needed to achieve its established emission targets.
"According to economic modelling undertaken by Frontier Economics for the Energy Security Board, from 2017 onwards we'd need to install 9,271 megawatts [MW] of wind and solar in the NEM [National Electricity Market] to achieve the Government's 2030 emission reduction target," he said.
"Yet we already have 9,691 MW of projects that will be delivered in the NEM based on what has been committed to construction and what is being contracted under procurement processes currently underway."
Those commitments include 650MW from the GFG consortium to power the Whyalla Steelworks in South Australia, a 500MW wind expansion from AGL, renewable energy auctions conducted by the Victorian and Queensland governments and a series of other contracts drawn up by generators such as Origin and AGL.
"We have already achieved what the NEG said it would do, it doesn't add anything or do anything meaningful," Mr Edis said.
Huge shortfall in CO2 reduction remains

What is the Paris Agreement?
Here's a simple explanation of the agreement, and what it means for Australia.

Mr Edis said the NEG in its current form would deliver a result that is almost 120 million tonnes of carbon dioxide short of Australia's commitment to the 2030 Paris Agreement.
"The maths on the Government's emission target is pretty basic," Mr Edis said.
"According the latest emissions projections from the Government's own Department of Environment, the Government needs to find 128 million tonnes of CO2 abatement in 2030 to achieve its economy-wide 2030 Paris emissions target.
"Even if Frontier Economics' modelling was right, it means the NEG delivers just 10 million tonnes in 2030 compared to business as usual.
"Where the hell is the other 118 million going to come from?"
The Energy Reduction Fund is running low limiting the government's options in meeting its 2030 Paris accord commitments. (Brett Worthington)
Mr Edis said none of the options the Government had to make up the shortfall seemed likely to work.
"If the Government was to adopt the most stringent vehicle emission standard they've contemplated in their consultation paper — which is a big if — then the Government's own estimates are it would deliver 11.7 million in 2030.
"The Emission Reduction Fund is almost out of money.
"Agriculture? Somehow I can't see a Government made up of the Nationals regulating to control emissions from cows and sheep or land-clearing.
"They could pay for abatement but where's the money coming from?"

Record solar PV installation
The Renewable Energy Index found renewables accounted for 19.7 per cent of the electricity generated on Australia's main grids, or enough energy to power 8.7 million homes.
According to Green Energy Markets, rooftop solar installations in March were the highest monthly total ever, and over the first three months of the year are running at levels 50 per cent above those anticipated in economic modelling of the NEG.
"Households and businesses are continuing to install solar PV on rooftops at record rates in order to reduce their electricity bills. March installs set a new monthly record of 127 megawatts which will produce power equivalent to the consumption of 36,710 homes," the report said.
"On top of the underestimates of large scale renewables, it suggests that the emission reduction target could be substantially strengthened at minimal economic cost."

Links