23/04/2018

Phony Peace? Challenges To Energy Plan Sent Back To Modelling Board

Fairfax - Peter Hannam

Partway during Friday's summit of the nation's energy ministers, Victoria's Lily D'Ambrosio interrupted a presentation by the Energy Security Board to query a dot-point about concessions for low-income earners.
"Where did that come from?" she reportedly asked, wondering who had directed that research. Such a proposal at this point was a "non starter".
The problem, though, is not so much the board's unsolicited research but the torrent of studies that comes out of the Melbourne gathering – and the fault lines that they may open up.
That work – presumably to be done well before the ministers meet for a "final determination" on the National Energy Guarantee (NEG) on August 10 in Sydney – includes more details on emissions targets, offsets, the reliability standard to accompany the emissions one, market power mitigation, and the thorny issue of "additionality".
Josh Frydenberg has his hands full trying to develop a masterplan for energy and climate policy. Photo: Joe Armao

Federal environment and energy minister Josh Frydenberg stepped up the charm offensive in the past two days, starting with an amicable dinner with his state and territory counterparts on Thursday, then a four-hour working session on Friday, becoming "much less Bolshie than earlier in the week", as one participant noted.
Gone were blasts at Victoria, Queensland and the ACT for pursuing "reckless" renewable energy and emission-reduction targets.
Instead, Frydenberg's gentler response: "we wouldn't like to see a proliferation of state schemes", and an acceptance that, anyway, "we don't have the power to prevent [them]."
Frydenberg secured what he wanted: an agreement to proceed with the more detailed design of the "world-first" plan that he promises will drive electricity prices down, bolster the grid's reliability,  and cut the sector's greenhouse gas emissions by just over a quarter from 2005 levels by 2030.
Hadn't the past half-year's frenzy of work by the Energy Security Board – from modelling, consultation papers, "high level design" documents and so on – provided enough certainty that this scheme might work?
Apparently not, if the lengthy list of work the board or the government agreed to "urgently provide" is any guide.
Toss in the Greens' request for the ESB to examine emissions cuts in other sectors (likely to be more expensive in most, such as transport), and the modellers' picnic becomes a feast.
And somewhere down the track lies possibly Frydenberg's biggest challenge.
If the scheme passes muster with Labor and Greens-led states and territories, will conservative backbench colleagues approve – particularly if they detect the hint of an emissions intensity scheme and a carbon price buried within?
For those reasons, Friday's pause in the climate wars may turn out to be a phony peace before skirmishes break out anew.

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Apocalypse How? What Novels Screw Up About Climate Change

Huffington Post - Casey Williams

We're obsessed with grim environmental tales, but most of them miss the point.
mdesigner125 via Getty Images             
If you live somewhere other than under a large rock, the premise of The Tangled Lands will sound familiar: A declining empire owes its former splendor to a miraculous energy source. Now, emissions from that source threaten to destroy the empire. Everyone’s freaking out.
The story is (maybe too) obviously an allegory of climate change. Instead of hydrocarbons, the fictional world Paolo Bacigalupi and Tobias Buckell create in their recently released novel draws power from magic, which also fertilizes the voracious, writhing, poisonous weeds now bearing down on one of the last great cities. Migrants pour in from the bramble-choked periphery. The rich and powerful seek to turn the crisis to their advantage while ordinary citizens resist. Al Gore is … not there, but you get the point.
Novels like The Tangled Lands are seismographic readings from a trembling society. They register a profound anxiety that the world we know is collapsing under our feet. Literary critics interested in climate change are currently debating whether these works can also give readers tools for addressing the ecological crisis. Perhaps fiction, the thinking goes, makes it easier to wrap our heads around complex environmental changes and dream up useful ways of dealing with them.
The stakes are high. “If there is any one thing global warming has made perfectly clear,” wrote novelist Amitav Ghosh in The Great Derangement, “it is that to think about the world only as it is amounts to a form of collective suicide.”
Fiction that wrestles with the changing world takes a number of forms. Some aspire to a kind of gritty realism (David Simon’s television series “Treme,” for example). Other works pine for better days or “trade in the nostalgic dreams of empire’s many lost wonders,” as a character in The Tangled Lands puts it. In general, science fiction and fantasy are the preferred genres for staging the sometimes slow, sometimes holy-shit-I-should-write-a-will-fast transformation of the world.
While some of these works avoid apocalyptic themes, such as Kim Stanley Robinson’s New York: 2140, much eco-fiction plunges readers into near- or post-apocalyptic futures. Think movies like “The Day After Tomorrow” and “Snowpiercer” or novels like Claire Vaye Watkins’ Gold Fame Citrus and Margaret Atwood’s Oryx and Crake. Even “Game of Thrones” is a story about cataclysmic changes in the weather.
These stories can be powerful aids for thought. Novels like The Tangled Lands let us sample catastrophe from a safe distance. Films like “Beasts of the Southern Wild,” which tracks a bayou community through a violent storm, make familiar dangers strange so that we might escape ourselves and reflect on a bizarre, broken world.
The best of these works, like Octavia Butler’s Parable of the Sower (published in 1993, well before the current craze), highlight the uneven violence of large-scale environmental change. Butler’s novel follows Lauren, a black teenager, as she travels from Los Angeles, bone-dry and full of bandits, to the relative security of Northern California. Lauren’s journey through the wilds beyond walled middle-class enclaves reminds us that ecological pressures lay some lower than others, while inviting us to imagine more egalitarian ways of organizing future worlds.
Such speculations aren’t confined to fiction, of course. Journalist David Wallace-Wells’ 2017 article “The Uninhabitable Earth” fuses literary conventions with hard reporting to conjure apocalyptic visions of a warming world. Even Rachel Carson’s Silent Spring, remembered as the nonfiction book that sparked the environmental movement back in the 1960s, begins with a “fable.”
“There once was a town at the heart of America where all life seemed to live in harmony with its surroundings,” Carson wrote. We know how the story ends: Humans lugged in their cars and pesticides, and broke the balance.
Nonfiction does as much aesthetic work as any novel. Indeed, if people relate to the world through culture ― through images, tropes and social scripts that give meaning to the raw data of the universe ― then every book, movie and cereal box reveals something about how someone somewhere is puzzling through life on a changing planet. So too does every scientific report, news briefing and presidential address. There is something profoundly cinematic about footage of oil gushing from Deepwater Horizon’s blown wellhead (watch it again and try to look away). And there’s something deeply haunting about the “hockey stick” graph that has come to symbolize the planetary warming trend.
Fictional or factual, these stories matter because they frame people’s moral and political responses to ecological change. Activists who shut down several major oil pipelines in 2016 risked lengthy prison sentences because their culture (white liberal American) tells itself stories about personal moral heroism and understands the theatrics of righteous lawbreaking. Perhaps unsurprisingly, Seattle valve turner Michael Foster is a lover of Henry David Thoreau. “I’m just more afraid of climate change than I am of prison,” he told The New York Times as he stared down the possibility of decades behind bars.
There are plenty of reasons to be afraid. Global average temperatures creep higher each year; superstorms ravage coastlines; droughts and floods wipe out homes and farms and city blocks. As usual, those denied wealth and power suffer most from the intensifying disaster.
Over 100,000 Puerto Ricans remain without electricity seven months after Hurricane Maria tore through the island. “No electricity, no water, no food, no fuel, no hospitals and no means of communication,” Puerto Rican journalist Omaya Sosa Pascual wrote of her post-storm home. “It seemed unreal that this could happen in the 21st century.”
It’s tempting to read worsening disasters as portents of the apocalypse to come, a preface to some final lethal bang. But this isn’t usually how environmental change, and especially not climate change, works. Climate change doesn’t describe a single future catastrophe, but a slow and uneven unraveling, a drawn-out apocalypse that began long ago and that will stretch to an end that probably won’t feel like much of an ending at all.
For most people, climate change is ordinary danger amplified, enduring injustice heightened. For those few who have enough wealth or power to recuse themselves from the vicissitudes of planetary change, global warming will probably feel like banal anxiety: a vague worry here, a twinge of guilt there. Anyone waiting for the apocalypse is likely to be disappointed, over and over again.
Journalist Kathryn Schultz summed up the problem nicely. “We excel at imagining future scenarios, including awful ones,” she wrote in a New Yorker article about a mega-earthquake threatening the Pacific Northwest. “But such apocalyptic visions are a form of escapism, not a moral summons, and still less a plan of action.”
Some recent environmental literature is resisting the easy spectacle of apocalypse. Take Ben Lerner’s novel 10:04. The novel’s action is bookended by fictionalized versions of two actual superstorms ― Hurricanes Irene and Sandy ― that fail to live up to the apocalyptic hype that precedes them. When Irene hits, the narrator expects catastrophe, but none arrives. “I went into the kitchen and drank a glass of water and glanced at the instant coffee on the counter and it was no longer an emissary from a world to come,” he says. “There was disappointment in my relief at the failure of the storm.”
The narrator’s disappointment contains a lesson: Reckoning with the complexity of climate change means acknowledging one’s desire to turn it into a spectacle, an art object, a moment of personal transformation, a dramatic tale to which one can append existential anxieties like so many railcars on a train barreling over the edge. Lerner asks readers to confront an unsettling possibility: For the wealthy and well-connected, climate change will not feel catastrophic most of the time.
For Lerner, as for Butler and Bacigalupi and Buckell, confronting climate change isn’t about staving off some future disaster, but dealing with the everyday injustices that make the present unbearable for so many.

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'Not A Big Drama' For Electricity Industry To Slash Emissions, Says Scheme Architect

Fairfax - Nicole Hasham | Peter Hannam

The head of the expert board advising the federal Coalition on its signature energy plan says it would not be a "big drama" for the electricity industry if a future Labor government enforced far stronger cuts to greenhouse gas emissions.
Labor states say they will withhold final support for the Turnbull government proposal to merge climate and energy policy - known as the national energy guarantee - until they are assured a successive government will not be blocked from ratcheting up carbon savings.


'More work to be done' on energy: Frydenberg
With Labor state governments holding back support for Energy Minister John Frydenberg's energy plan, he's admitted there is still work to do.

Kerry Schott, the chair of the Energy Security Board, which is devising the policy, told Fairfax Media that such a change was "part of your normal course of business".> "If you are in the market and you have the mechanism there then you know you are always subject to changes in legislation, and you are also subject to changes in fuel cost and changes in technology," she said.
"Everybody knows that ... It's not a big drama."
The national energy guarantee would force electricity retailers to ensure minimum standards of emissions reduction and reliability of supply.
Environment and Energy Minister Josh Frydenberg on Friday won support from the nation's energy ministers for the Energy Security Board to keep developing the plan, which promises to end a decade-long political deadlock on energy policy.
However he is refusing to budge on key sticking points, including raising the emissions reduction target, which is in line with the Paris climate agreement - meaning the future of the policy is far from assured.
Dr Kerry Schott is advising the federal government on the energy plan Photo: Alex Ellinghausen
"The federal government's position is very clear ... the Commonwealth will set the emissions reduction targets for Australia and the way in which we will meet them," Mr Frydenberg said after the meeting.
The Turnbull government intends to lock into the policy a 26 per cent emissions reduction target by 2030, based on 2005 levels.
COAG is attempting to solve the energy trilemma of affordable power, a reliable grid and lower emissions. 
Federal Labor says if it wins the next election it will seek to legislate to bring this target up to 45 per cent.
Electricity generators have themselves urged the government to make deeper carbon emissions reductions, saying they could do more to meet Australia's international climate change targets.
ACT Climate Change Minister Shane Rattenbury has been the most vocal opponent of the policy. Photo: Eddie Jim
Despite the apparent impasse, Mr Frydenberg said there was "a lot of goodwill in the room and a widespread commitment to getting an outcome in August", when ministers next meet to consider the final design of the energy guarantee.
Victorian Energy Minister Lily D'Ambrosio said the scheme still required significant work to ensure "further more ambitious reductions [can] be deployed under a Commonwealth government".
Illustration: Matt Golding.
Ms D'Ambrosio said the states had received an assurance that its renewable energy and emissions reduction targets "will be honoured, and that is a very important point for our state".
"We've got great ambition in growing renewable energy, lowering carbon emissions, but importantly we know that the quicker we can build new energy supply the lower energy prices will be."
Queensland Energy Minister Anthony Lynham agreed that any future federal government must be able to upscale emissions targets, and said the policy must support jobs growth and put downward pressure on power prices.
The Commonwealth is responsible for setting the emissions target under the scheme. Dr Schott said the board would await details of the target, and the trajectory the government wants followed to meet it between 2020 and 2030.
She said the guarantee's draft framework was "received very positively" by energy ministers.
The Labor-Greens ACT government and Labor states are concerned that deep emissions cuts triggered by their strong renewable energy targets would count towards the national policy's overall target rather than being additional to it. They fear this would undermine their climate action efforts by allowing other states to do less.
ACT Climate Change Minister Shane Rattenbury said if the policy's architecture was not right then "the promise the Labor Party is making [on emissions cuts] cannot be delivered".
Federal Greens leader Richard Di Natale said it would be "irresponsible" and "an enormous risk" for federal and state Labor to support a poor policy with a promise to fix it in future.
Mark Butler, the Labor climate change and energy spokesman, on Friday slammed the government's intention to lock a 26 per cent emissions reduction target into the energy guarantee.
"The Turnbull government’s attack on renewable energy and refusal to take real action on climate change has once again been made plainly clear," he said in a statement.
"Industry, experts, scientists, states and federal Labor have all been clear that a pollution reduction target for electricity of 26 per cent reduction on 2005 levels by 2030 is woefully inadequate."
"He accused the government of "pass[ing] the buck on climate change action to our kids and grandkids".
NSW Energy Minister Don Harwin was among the most positive after Friday's meeting.
"We liked what we heard and what we saw ... It's a good basis for finding a way forward and getting a national solution," he said.

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