11/05/2018

Future Sailors: What Will Ships Look Like In 30 Years?

The Guardian

With a target to halve its huge carbon footprint, the race is on to find new technologies to green the world’s shipping fleet
Low-tech solutions can deliver big emission cuts: sails could once again become the norm. Photograph: Courtesy of Elomatic Oy/NYK 
Watch out for the return of the sailing ship.
After a commitment last month to cut greenhouse gas emissions from shipping by at least 50% by 2050, the race is on to find new technologies that can green the 50,000-strong global shipping fleet. Wind power is one of the options being discussed.
International shipping accounts for more than 2% of global carbon dioxide emissions, roughly the same as aircraft. But the 2015 Paris agreement to fight climate change left control of the shipping industry’s emissions to the International Maritime Organisation.
While environment groups applauded the agreement to cut hard and deep by 2050, they pointed out that it falls far short what is technically achievable.
A report published just before the meeting by the International Transport Forum (ITF), a thinktank run by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), found that the industry could achieve up to 95% decarbonisation as early as 2035 using “maximum deployment of currently known technologies.”

Low-tech solutions
The good news is that easy-to-do low-tech solutions can deliver a lot. Maersk, the world’s largest container shipping line, has already discovered it can cut fuel use 30% simply by steaming more slowly.
Because of the wide availability of cheap (and often dirty) fuel, shipping has traditionally been wasteful. Most merchant ships are made of heavy steel rather than lighter aluminium, and don’t bother with obvious energy-saving measures like low-friction hull coatings or recovering waste heat.
More slender ship designs alone could cut fuel use — and hence emissions — by 10-15% at slow speeds and up to 25% at high speeds, says the ITF. But replacing the existing fleet would take time. The average age of today’s shipping fleet is 25 years. Rules of energy efficiency for new ships introduced by the IMO in 2013 will only fully come into force from 2030, meaning that any switch to slender ships would not apply to most ships at sea until mid-century or beyond.
But much could be done more quickly by retrofitting existing ships with technology to cut their fuel use and hence emissions, according to the ITF. Here are just four:
  • Fitting ships’ bows with a bulbous extension below the water line reduces drag enough to cut emissions 2-7%;
  • A technique known as air lubrication, which pumps compressed air below the hull to create a carpet of bubbles, also reduces drag and can cut emissions by a further 3%;
  • Replacing one propeller with two rotating in opposite directions recovers slipstream energy and can make efficiency gains of 8-15%,
  • Cleaning the hull and painting it with a low-friction coating can deliver gains of up to 5%.
Entirely new ships
Putting together better designs and better fuel will create entirely new kinds of ships in future. And the blueprints are already being drawn up.
The Aquarius Ecoship, a cargo ship devised by a Japanese company called Eco Marine Power, is driven by a phalanx of rigid sails and solar panels. The same system could power oil tankers, cruise ships and much else. It would not, the designers admit, entirely eliminate the need for conventional fuel: Even with large batteries to store the solar and wind energy, back-up would be needed. But it could cut emissions by 40 percent.
The Aquarius Eco Ship concept design incorporates the innovative solar and wind power. Photograph: Courtesy of Eco Marine Power
Going one better, the Japanese shipping line NYK boasts that its design for a 350m-long container ship, the Super Eco Ship 2030, would use LNG to make hydrogen to run fuel cells. Backed up by solar panels covering the entire ship and 4,000 square metres of sails to catch the wind, the combination could cut emissions by 70%. Or for a completely zero-carbon option, engineers at Wallenius Wilhelmsen, a Scandinavian shipping line, offer the E/S Orcelle, a lightweight cargo ship designed to transport up to 10,000 cars (electric, we trust) on eight decks.
It would be powered by electricity, half coming directly from wind, solar and wave energy, and the other half from converting some of that energy into hydrogen to power fuel cells. The company says the ship could be afloat by 2025.
Today’s ships are in many respects almost indistinguishable from those of a century ago. But the IMO decision to finally get with the global climate agenda has fired the starting gun on what is set to be a race to create a new standard for low-carbon shipping that should be the norm just a few decades from now.
Some of the biggest gains will require banishing conventional petroleum-based fuel, says the Sustainable Shipping Initiative, a progressive industry ginger group whose members include cruise lines and commodities shipping lines. Innovations ranging from biofuels to liquefied natural gas (LNG), nuclear reactors to sails to catch the wind, and hydrogen to solar panels have been proposed.
Each has its benefits and drawbacks, and nobody is putting all their money on one solution. Biofuels are problematic because they take land to grow, though specially engineered crops such as algae could change that, says the ITF. While electric engines already operate on some short ferry journeys, the sheer weight and space taken up by batteries on oceangoing ships make them unviable until there are breakthroughs in lithium-ion batteries. Solar power can only augment other power sources.
One innovation already underway is converting ships to run on LNG. There are already more than a hundred LNG-fuelled ships globally. A new generation of giant cruise ships powered this way and carrying up to 7,000 passengers will be launched by MSC Cruises starting in 2022. Some LNG ships claim a reduction in CO2 emissions of 15%, though that depends crucially on keeping leakage of the greenhouse gas methane to a minimum in ships and bunkers.
 LNG-powered Viking Grace boasts the first ship-based ‘rotor sail’. Photograph: Tuukka Ervasti/Lloyd’s Register
The first LNG-powered cruise ship is the Viking Grace, operating between Finland and Sweden. This vessel has another claim to fame. As of this April it also boasts the first ship-based “rotor sail” to capture power from the wind. Rotor sails have a large spinning cylinder amidships. Wind hitting the rotor creates a vertical force that can be used to power the ship, a phenomenon known as the Magnus effect. The Viking Line says the extra power will reduce the ship’s CO2 emissions by 900 metric tonnes (1,000 tons) per year.

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Hurricane Season May Be Even Worse In 2018 After A Harrowing 2017

The Guardian

The initial forecasts of an above-average season for hurricanes, beginning on 1 June, follow a punishing spate of storms last year
Flooded homes at Citrus Park in Bonita Springs, Florida on 16 September 2017, six days after Hurricane Irma. Photograph: Nicole Raucheisen/AP 
The US may have to brace itself for another harrowing spate of hurricanes this year, with forecasts of an active 2018 season coming amid new research that shows powerful Atlantic storms are intensifying far more rapidly than they did 30 years ago.
The peak season for Atlantic storms, which officially starts on 1 June, is set to spur as many as 18 named storms, with up to five of them developing into major hurricanes, according to separate forecasts from North Carolina State University and Colorado State University. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration will soon provide its own 2018 hurricane predictions.
The initial forecasts of an above-average season for hurricanes follow a punishing 2017, most notable for Hurricane Harvey, which drenched large areas of Texas, Hurricane Irma’s sweep over Florida and the devastation that stubbornly lingers in Puerto Rico from Hurricane Maria.
These huge hurricanes brought winds of up to 185mph and lashing rains, causing hundreds of deaths, flattening homes, felling power lines and ruining roads. Combined, the three storms caused around $265bn in damage, and all ranked in the five most destructive hurricanes ever recorded.
Many communities, particularly in Puerto Rico and Texas, are still struggling to recover from last year’s hurricanes as the upcoming storm season approaches. And while the US may be spared 2017 levels of devastation this year, scientists have warned that the warming of the oceans, driven by climate change, is likely to stir greater numbers of prodigious storms in the future.
Atlantic hurricanes are intensifying far more rapidly than they did 30 years ago, according to a new study that analyzed the acceleration in wind speed of previous storms. Major hurricanes are defined by a sharp increase in speed, of at least 28mph in a 24-hour period.
Researchers at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory found that these big hurricanes are, on average, speeding up 13mph faster in this 24-hour period than they did 30 years ago. Much of this has to do with shifts in a natural climate cycle called the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation.
Separate research from the National Center for Atmospheric Research suggests this natural variation will combine with escalating warming in the oceans and atmosphere, caused by the burning of fossil fuels by humans, to produce stronger hurricanes in the future. A warm ocean surface, combined with consistent wind patterns, contribute to the formation of fiercer, if not more numerous, hurricanes.
People make their way onto an I-610 overpass after being rescued from flooded homes during the aftermath of Hurricane Harvey, on 27 August 2017 in Houston, Texas. Photograph: Brendan Smialowski/AFP/Getty Images
In the weeks before Hurricane Harvey smashed into Texas in August last year, the Gulf of Mexico’s waters were warmer than any time on record at around 30C (86F), the NCAR research found.
“The implication is that the warmer oceans increased the risk of greater hurricane intensity and duration,” said Kevin Trenberth, an NCAR senior scientist and lead author of the study. “As climate change continues to heat the oceans, we can expect more supercharged storms like Harvey.
“While we often think of hurricanes as atmospheric phenomena, it’s clear that the oceans play a critical role and will shape future storms as the climate changes.”
Hurricanes act as a sort of relief valve for hot tropical oceans, funneling heat away into the atmosphere. Persistent warmth in the oceans, however, adds further energy to hurricanes and risks causing worse damage to life and property when these storms make landfall.
Faced with the prospect of supercharged hurricanes, as various other burgeoning climate change-related threats, Donald Trump has rescinded Obama-era rules preparing infrastructure for climate impacts. He has taken an axe to policies that would lower greenhouse gas emissions from cars and power plants and announced that the US will withdraw from the Paris climate agreement.
This agenda has been criticized by researchers who have called for an urgent reappraisal of the risk posed by climate change.
“We know this threat exists, and yet in many cases, society is not adequately planning for these storms,” Trenberth said.
“I believe there is a need to increase resilience with better building codes, flood protection, and water management, and we need to prepare for contingencies, including planning evacuation routes and how to deal with power cuts.”
This year, however, the focus will again be on disaster recovery rather than long-term mitigation. Ken Graham, director of Noaa’s National Hurricane Center said that the “entire Gulf Coast is at risk from storms and that several hurricanes can strike in a single season”.
“Don’t wait for a hurricane to be on your doorstep to make a preparedness plan, by then it may be too late,” he added. “Take the time now to get prepared for the season ahead.”

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Climate Change: Washington County Lawsuit Demands Oil And Gas Companies Help Pay Adaptation Costs

The IndependentClark Mindock

The lawsuit is similar to legal efforts in Colorado, California, and New York
The county that has sued the oil giants includes Seattle Getty Images
A county in Washington State has become the latest locality to sue the oil industry for cash to help pay for the costs of adapting to climate change.
King County — a large county in the northwest of the state that includes Seattle — filed suit against British Petroleum, Chevron, Exxon, Royal Dutch Shell, and Conocophillips, with attorneys for the county arguing that those oil giants should help pay for the “hundreds of millions of dollars” that is expected to be needed to adapt to changing conditions created by climate change.
Those five companies, the lawsuit reads, knowingly sold a product with the potential for massive consequences. Comment requests sent to the companies were not immediately returned.
“This egregious state of affairs is no accident. Rather, it is an unlawful public nuisance of the first order,” court filings read.
“The use of fossil fuels — oil, natural gas, and coal — is the primary source of the greenhouse gas pollution that causes global warming, a point that scientists settled years ago,” the filing continues, noting that a 2015 investigation revealed that scientists for the fossil fuel industry knew for decades that climate change posed a threat, but that the companies allegedly did not adequately disclose those dangers to the public or its stockholders.
Exxon, one of the companies that was implicated in that 2015, has said that it did not act in any way inconsistently with its knowledge about climate change.
Hanna Petursdottir examines a cave inside the Svinafellsjokull glacier in Iceland, which she said had been growing rapidly. Since 2000, the size of glaciers on Iceland has reduced by 12 per cent. Tom Schifanella
Citing the heavy costs that the county will incur for adapting its infrastructure for storm water management, salmon recovery, protecting public health, and other adaptation costs, King County Executive Dow Constantine said that the lawsuit is there to make sure the companies that profited from selling fossil fuels pay their fair share.
““The science is undisputable: climate change is impacting our region today, and it will only cause greater havoc and hardships in the future,” Mr Constantine said in a statement.
“The companies that profited the most from fossil fuels should help bear the costs of managing these disasters. Big Oil spent many decades disregarding and dismissing what is our most pressing generational challenge. We must hold these companies accountable as we marshal our resources to protect and preserve what makes this region great.”
The lawsuit is at least the 11th lawsuit of its kind filed against oil and gas companies this year. The Washington county joins the likes of Boulder, Colorado — which is currently the only landlocked locality to be suing for climate change adaptation costs — as well as communities in New York and California.
“The average person should know we’re finally dealing with the costs of climate change. Irrespective of weather, this is a big concern to you,” Richard Wiles, the executive director of the Centre for Climate Integrity, told The Independent when Boulder filed its lawsuit last month.

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