Worst-Case Climate Change Scenario Is Even Worse Than We Thought

New Scientist - Michael Le Page

These lignite-fired power plants are among the largest in Europe. Thomas Corzelius / iStock / Getty Images Plus

The phrase “worse than we thought” is a cliché when it comes to climate change. There are lots of studies suggesting we’re in for more warming and worse consequences than thought, and few saying it won’t be as bad. But guess what: it’s worse than we thought.
A study of the future global economy has concluded that the standard worst-case scenario used by climate scientists is actually not the worst case.
How much the climate will change depends on how much greenhouse gas we emit, which in turn depends on the choices we make as a society – including how the global economy behaves.
To handle this, climatologists use four scenarios called RCPs, each of which describes a different possible future.
The RCP8.5 scenario is the worst for the climate. It assumes rapid, unfettered economic growth and rampant burning of fossil fuels.
It now seems RCP8.5 may have underestimated the emissions that would result if we follow the economic path it describes.

More money, more emissions
“Our estimates indicate that, due to higher than assumed economic growth rates, there is a greater than 35 per cent probability that year 2100 emissions concentrations will exceed those given by RCP8.5,” says Peter Christensen of the University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign.
In one sense, it is not quite that bad. RCP8.5 assumes no action is taken to limit warming, which is unlikely.
“We’ve already locked in a certain amount of climate policy,” says Glen Peters of the Center for International Climate Research in Norway.
But the worrying implication is that emissions could be much higher than expected even if climate action continues and is ramped up.
“The results will also affect estimates of emissions pathways under a variety of policy scenarios,” says Christensen.
While some claim the link between economic growth and greenhouse emissions has been broken – or “decoupled” – it’s only been weakened.
 Carbon emissions have risen in the European Union over the past four years as economic growth has picked up, Peters points out. In 2017, EU emissions rose 1.8 per cent.

Links

• Climate downgrade: Arctic warming
• Climate downgrade: Extreme weather
• Climate downgrade: Food production hit
• Climate downgrade: Sea level rise
• Climate downgrade: Planetary feedbacks
• Climate downgrade: Human emissions
• Climate downgrade: Heat stress
• We messed up our figures on how much carbon dioxide is too much
• Towing icebergs to Cape Town is a poor way to halt water crisis
• Tourism is four times worse for the climate than we thought
• Why the US is wrong to say burning wood is carbon neutral
• Plants love carbon dioxide, but too much could be bad for them
• Why climate engineers are targeting Earth’s last pristine spots
• Most UK plants will flower at once in short ‘condensed spring’
• A melting ice shelf can cause rapid ice loss 900 kilometres away
• Carbon-free shipping is possible, so why aren’t we doing it?
• The Antarctic is melting even in the middle of subzero winter
• 2017 was the year of the biggest fire storms ever seen
• Antarctica still losing ice despite big rise in snowfall
• A simple mathematical rule shapes the behaviour of Arctic ponds

Gas Boom Fuels Australia's Third Straight Year Of Rising Emissions

The Guardian - Lisa Cox

LNG was major contributor to 1.5% rise in year to December 2017, government data shows

Greenhouse gas emissions were driven by an increase of 17.6% in natural gas production. Photograph: Ken Mulvaney

Australia’s greenhouse gas emissions continue to soar, increasing for the third consecutive year according to new data published by the Department of Environment and Energy.
The Turnbull government published new quarterly emissions data late on Friday which reveals Australia’s climate pollution increased by 1.5% in the year to December 2017.
The expansion in LNG exports and production is identified as the major contributor to the increase, but the data shows a jump in emissions across all sectors – including waste, agriculture and transport – except for electricity, the one area that recorded a decrease in emissions.
In particular, the department’s data shows a 10.5% increase in fugitive emissions from the production, processing, transport, storage, transmission and distribution of fossil fuels such as coal, crude oil and natural gas, driven by an increase of 17.6% in natural gas production.
It comes at a time when the government has been pressuring states and territories to lift bans on fracking for new unconventional gas development and just weeks after the Northern Territory announced it would end its ban on fracking.
Publication of the data also comes after Australia recorded its hottest and driest April in 21 years.
Australia’s emissions levels are now higher than they were in 2012 and have climbed 3.6% since the carbon price was repealed in 2014.
Between 2007 and 2013, under the previous federal government, carbon pollution declined by more than 11%.
The Australian Conservation Foundation said on Monday it was embarrassing that a developed country such as Australia was recording rising climate pollution, and the Turnbull government was failing on climate policy.
“This data confirms pollution is rising from transport, industry and gas production because there is no plan from Canberra to replace burning polluting coal, oil and gas with clean energy,” the ACF’s Gavan McFadzean said.
“The federal budget contained no new money to incentivise industry and landowners to clean-up their act. The Climate Change Authority will be worse off to the tune of $550,000. Yet there is money for miners: the diesel fuel rebate remains in place.”
The organisation also questioned why the government was years behind markets such as the United States and Canada in the introduction of tougher pollution standards for vehicles.
Labor’s climate change and energy spokesman, Mark Butler, said seasonally adjusted data showed emissions jumped by 0.83% in just the last quarter alone.
“Yet, just last week, Malcolm Turnbull’s government delivered a budget which has no policy to drive down pollution and combat climate change,” he said.
“Acting on climate change is not a priority – it is not even on the agenda – for this out-of-touch government.”
Blair Palese, 350.org Australia’s CEO, said “with numbers like these, Australia may as well not be signed up to Paris to act on climate because we’re making no progress at all.”
“We can blame the federal government’s inability to stand up to fossil fuel interests and its failure to give any meaningful support to renewable energy for Australia’s increasing emissions.”
Matthew Doman, director at the Australian Petroleum Production and Exploration Association (APPEA) said it was not surprising that the industry’s emissions profile had grown alongside an increase in production.
“The report highlights that the growth in emissions from gas production is less than the growth in gas production,” he said.
“This highlights that the emissions intensity of Australian gas production is declining as the industry becomes more efficient and improves its carbon performance.”
He said the industry managed fugitive emissions in a range of ways, including through the use of “green completions”, a process that captures and filters out impurities from wells instead of burning them off.
Comment has been sought from the minister for environment and energy, Josh Frydenberg.

Links

• Emissions increases approved by regulator may wipe out $260m of Direct Action cuts
• Clean energy financier invests $150m in infrastructure fund to lower emissions
• Quarterly Update of Australia's National Greenhouse Gas Inventory: December 2017 (incorporating March 2018 quarter emissions from the National Electricity Market)
• Australia emissions rise for 3rd year in row, despite fall in electricity
• Land Clearing and Climate Change: Risks and Opportunities in the Sunshine State
• Clean and Reliable Power: Roadmap to a Renewable Future
• Fully Charged: Renewables and Storage Powering Australia