Lethal Heating: 05/24/18

24/05/2018

'On The Nose': Australians' Views Favour Conservation, Curbs On Coal

Fairfax - Peter Hannam

The overwhelming majority of Australians think climate change is real, about two-thirds view themselves to be environmentalists "at heart", and just over half say the government should not allow new coal mines in the country, according data gathered by WWF and Roy Morgan.
Combining attitudes towards nature collected over two decades with a wide-ranging survey of 1800 respondents at the end of last year, the groups found a strong - and lately, rising - interest in protecting habitats on land and sea.

Australians view the Great Barrier Reef as its most important place to protect - and most see it in decline, from climate change-linked coral bleaching to crown of thorns star fish (as shown). Photo: Jason South

The Great Barrier Reef was chosen by 89 per cent of those surveyed in the Backyard Barometer Report as one of the top three places to protect, ahead of the Daintree rainforests of north Queensland and Tasmania's forests - both at 38 per cent.
“The reef is certainly an iconic place that is clearly at the heart of Australia," Mr O'Gorman told Fairfax Media. "They care deeply about it and want to see it saved."
The back-to-back mass coral bleaching in the summers of 2015-16 and 2016-17 "really changed the psyche of how Australians see the reef," he said. "They were like two killer punches to a boxer."
Just over half of respondents viewed the current state of the reef as "already bad", with 84 per cent saying it was "declining" or "getting worse".

Most important places for Australia to protect

Source: WWF

Care for the reef has also been politically charged of late, with the Turnbull government's decision to grant $444 million to the little known Great Barrier Reef Foundation to invest in conservation efforts drawing close scrutiny this week in Senate estimates.

Koala concerns
Of species drawing particular concern, koalas topped the list with just over half of respondents saying it was the creature they would most like to see protected.
Bilbys and whales were next favoured at 30 per cent each, while sharks - many of which are faring poorly despite media interest in occasional bites - drew just 9 per cent support for protection.

Which iconic species would you like to see protected?

Source: WWF

Long-running data sets going back to the late-1990s found Australians' concerns about the environment tend to waver during periods of economic turmoil, such in the global financial crisis that erupted in late-2007 and lasted four years.
Still, 81 per cent in March last year agreed with the view that "if we don't act now, we will never control our environmental problems", and 63 per cent supported the "at heart, I'm an environmentalist" description.

Climate of change
Despite perennial debate amongst politicians, the year-end survey found the great bulk - 86 per cent - agree that climate change is happening, with 65 per cent accepting humans are causing it, the report found.
Almost six in 10 named solar as their preferred energy source, ahead of wind at 15 per cent. Just seven per cent picked coal and 4 per cent gas.
“Coal is definitely on the nose and 69 per cent agree that coal and gas are putting the planet at risk," Mr O'Gorman said. “That’s a clear message to politicians but also...to electricity and energy providers that their licence to operate is disappearing extremely fast."
In that vein, 52 per cent of those surveyed supported the statement that "the federal government should not allow new coal mines", with only 22 per cent rejecting that statement, the report found.

Age gap
The survey also produced a generational divide between respondents aged 18-24 compared with those older than 65 years.

Younger and older Australians

Source: WWF

Three of four in the younger group viewed humans were "largely causing" climate change, with just over half that taking the same view in the older one.
Still, the latter group indicated higher interest into recycling and energy saving, with more than two-thirds viewing themselves as environmentalists against half those in the younger cohort.
On other issues, 84 per cent supported action by their state governments to stop excessive tree-clearing, while some 85 per cent saw plastics as the number threat to the seas around us.
“In a very short period of time, plastics have - in terms of public perceptions - become an enormous threat to the oceans," Mr O'Gorman said. “People want particularly state governments and companies to take very specific action to take plastic from the system."

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What Climate Change Will Mean For Mackay By 2050

Daily Mercury

Beach erosion at Midge Point caused by storm surge associated with Cyclone Debbie last year.

CLIMATE change is a very real threat to coastal communities like Mackay.
That's why it is "smart" to start planning now for coastal and inland flooding hazards likely to be exacerbated by climate change, says Mayor Greg Williamson.
"All of the advice from experts and other levels of government suggest we need to be cognisant about the effects of climate change when planning for the future,'' he said.
The Queensland Climate Change Strategy predicts cyclone intensity is expected to increase by 2050, with cyclone-associated rainfall tipped to increase by up to 20 to 30 per cent.
Projected increases in temperature also equate to a 10 per cent increase in general rainfall intensity by 2050, 15 per cent by 2070 and 20 per cent by 2100.
A 0.3m rise in sea level by 2050, a 0.5m rise by 2070 and a 0.8m rise by 2100 is also predicted.
Cr Williamson said the council was working on a Storm Smart Strategy to ensure the community was prepared and able to adapt.
"Unlike other climate change projects, this strategy is focused primarily on risks associated with sea level rises, increased cyclone intensity, higher intensity rainfall and the resulting increase in inundation and erosion potential,'' he said.
"It will help reduce the risk to people and property and enhance the community's resilience to natural hazards. Governments have indicated there will be reduced funding for recovery in the future, with a focus on spending to improve resilience.
"The strategy is for parts of our local government area identified as potentially impacted by coastal risks or inland flooding. Generally, these can by identified by looking at the Mackay Region Planning Scheme's flood and coastal hazards overlays, but can include up to 40 per cent of properties."
The council has accessed more than $200,000 in State Government Qcoast 2100 funding to start the strategy. It will continue to apply for a share of $12 million on offer for coastal councils.

Did you know?
Mackay Regional Council manages more than:

630km of underground drainage
10km of levees
140km of open drains

Insurance costs at a premium
FLOOD modelling work undertaken by the council isn't just useful for its new Storm Smart Strategy.
Mayor Greg Williamson said the council hoped the evolving flood data would help reduce insurance premiums in the Mackay region and ease cost of living pressures.

Major flooding in Mackay during February 2008.

"Average insurance premiums in North Queensland are three times higher than the state and New South Wales average and four times higher than South Australia, Victoria, Tasmania and Western Australia," he said.
"They are impacted by our tropical climate, including being in a cyclone zone and to a lesser extent property flood risk."
Cr Williamson said the council had undertaken flood studies to define flood risk more accurately and that work was ongoing.
"We're working with the Insurance Council of Australia in a bid to improve insurers' understanding of flood risk in our area,'' he said.
"For example, we have been developing new data which highlights the floor levels of properties in our region. A high-set property may have a lesser flood risk than a low-set property next door.
"Property owners are able to speak with council officers about obtaining information relating to their properties which they may be able to take to insurers in a bid to reduce premiums."

Other tips for lower insurance premiums:

Consider a higher excess
Talk to your insurance provider about ways to lower premium, such as removing large trees etc from the back yard
Shop around

Helping gauge effects of flooding
THE 1918 cyclone and storm surge remains the most significant natural disaster in the Mackay region's history.
It claimed 22 lives and caused hundreds of injuries, as well as destroying about 75 per cent of Mackay's building stock.
The event was caused by the coincidence of heavy rainfall - 1397 mm in three-and-a-half-days - with an intense tropical cyclone crossing the coast, which produced a storm tide level of about 5.4m AHD (1.76m above HAT).
The "Foulden Flood" during 1958 is regarded as the largest documented Pioneer River flood and is most well-known for removing the entire settlement of Foulden. Two lives were lost to drowning and one person was declared missing, with 136 people rescued from Foulden and Cremorne. (Source: Wright, B, 2008)
Significantly, the Pioneer River has not broken its banks at Mackay City since the construction of a levee system in the 1960s in response to the 1958 flood.

A crowd gathers to watch rising flood waters during the flood of February, 1958, at the corner of Evans Avenue and Harbour Road. Photo: Mackay Regional Council Libraries Image No. 00241

More recently, in 2008, an intense rainfall event (unofficially 736mm in less than six hours) directly over the Mackay urban area and local catchments damaged more than 4000 houses.
Although the intensity of the 2008 event was not comparable to anything experienced in the region before, the pattern of flooding - rapid rise followed by rapid recession of floodwaters on the falling tide - is generally typical of the urban catchment flooding experienced across the region.
Of 53,000 properties in the council area, about 12,000, or more than 20 per cent, are in known coastal hazard areas. Furthermore, about 20,000, or 40 per cent, are within a flood hazard area (including the 12,000 in the coastal hazard areas).

Forgan Bridge flood heights.

Beaches bear brunt of damage
THE State Government has just approved additional funding to improve resilience at Lamberts Beach and Midge Point.
They were two beaches in the region that fared worst during Cyclone Debbie.
The new funding includes about $1.7 million for Lamberts Beach to help fund the replenishment of 39,000 cubic metres of sand.
There is also about $2.6 million for 26,500 cubic metres at Midge Point.
Mackay Regional Council CEO Craig Doyle said these crucial extra funds were on top of about $2.9 million previously approved for the two beaches under Natural Disaster Relief and Recovery Arrangements Category D funding.
"The previous funding will restore the two beaches to their pre-Cyclone Debbie condition," Mr Doyle said.
"This additional funding will allow us to improve resilience at the beaches."

Significant sand loss at Lamberts Beach, resulting in a near-vertical scarp.

Mr Doyle said preliminary Category D funding provided $110,000 for sand pushing, minor revegetation and replacement fencing, which was completed at Lamberts Beach late last year.
He said another $950,000 in Category D funding had been approved to import 10,500 cubic metres of sand and to revegetate the area.
"Preparation of the permit application and design work is in progress, with construction expected to be completed by the end of September," Mr Doyle said.
At Midge Point, significant sand loss along the full length of beach resulted in loss of an esplanade park and associated infrastructure at the north end.
Preliminary NDRRA Category D funding provided $100,000 for minor works.
"Major restoration NDRRA Category D funding of $1.8m will be used to construct a 300m long geobag wall in the dune along the northern section of beach,'' Mr Doyle said.
"This is also due to be completed by September."

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One Million Electric Cars By 2030? You're Dreaming Without Big Spending

AFR - Jacob Greber

The take-up of electric vehicles in Australia is about five to 10 years behind other advanced markets, says Andrew Fulbrook. Simon Dawson

Predictions cited by the Turnbull government that Australians will be driving more than 1 million electric vehicles within 12 years are "virtually impossible" without billions of dollars in government support, says a global automotive expert.
The take-up of electric vehicles in Australia is about five to 10 years behind other advanced markets, says Andrew Fulbrook, who leads a team of more than 30 analysts and engineers at British-based IHS Markit, which helps the world's biggest car makers decide what power trains to invest in.
While it makes sense for the government to promote electric vehicle adoption by consumers for climate commitments, Mr Fulbrook said he knows of no example in the world where that has happened without a collective push by governments and industry.
Environment Minister Josh Frydenberg issued a call to arms in January for consumers to embrace the "electric car revolution", which he said was "nigh".
Improvements in cost, range and infrastructure mean that by 2025, an estimated 230,000 EVS will be driven on Australian roads by 2025, and 1 million by 2030, Mr Frydenberg said.
The reality on the ground, according to car industry groups such as the Federal Chamber of Automotive Industries, threatens to be less impressive. Unlike Norway, where about 40 per cent of new cars are EVs, Australia's current fleet is just under 4000. Last year EV sales were 1126.
"Unless you back up the narrative and ambition with finance and funding, you'll struggle to reach that number," Mr Fulbrook told The Australian Financial Review on Tuesday. "In fact you'll find it virtually impossible.
"I've not seen an example anywhere of free market dynamics creating that kind of market or penetration with no intervention from government."
Mr Fulbrook cites the example of Germany, where the government is spending €1.2 billion ($1.9 billion) in subsidies to encourage the purchase of 400,000 EVs between 2016 and 2020. A similar scheme in Australia, would cost a couple of billion dollars, and may involve lowering the purchase price of a new vehicle by $4000 or $5000, he said.

Big challenges
The next stage of helping to establish an effective market to encourage car markers to sell into Australia involves the establishment of charging technology, which Mr Fulbrook says will be needed to bridge the gap through to the late 2020s, when battery technology will have developed enough to enable most drivers to run their vehicles without recharging during the day.
"In loose terms, it's a multibillion-dollar commitment if you want to sea-change the market like this," he said.
He cautioned that such an agreement may struggle given the lack of any solution to Australia's high-sulphur petrol stocks, which car makers blame for inhibiting the rollout of more efficient combustion engines.
"That's an argument that was dealt with many years ago by other mature markets.
"[But] politically, if you can't get around the table to solve this sulphur impasse, you've got much bigger challenges ahead when it comes to transformational change, like electrification."
Car makers will have the products to sell in coming years, but they are unlikely to bring it into a market if there's a "ball and tumbleweeds and nothing else" in place, he said.
Another risk is that Australian consumers find themselves in a world where they won't be able to buy a traditionally-powered car.
"The makers will still be there. [But] I don't think there will be any conventionally-propelled vehicles being produced for major market consumption in 2040.
"You're not going to succeed in dictating the direction of automotive technology. That's very much in the hands of Europe and China.
"There's nothing wrong with having the ambition to modernise the fleet in terms of the Paris climate change agreement, but the consumer needs to be readied and enabled.
"I'm not sure Australia is there yet."

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Tourism's Carbon Impact Three Times Larger Than Estimated

BBC - Matt McGrath

Travellers from affluent countries are a key part of emissions growth in tourism. Getty Images

A new study says global tourism accounts for 8% of carbon emissions, around three times greater than previous estimates.

The new assessment is bigger because it includes emissions from travel, plus the full life-cycle of carbon in tourists' food, hotels and shopping.
Driving the increase are visitors from affluent countries who travel to other wealthy destinations.
The US tops the rankings followed by China, Germany and India.
Tourism is a huge and booming global industry worth over $7 trillion, and employs one in ten workers around the world. It's growing at around 4% per annum.
Previous estimates of the impact of all this travel on carbon suggested that tourism accounted for 2.5-3% of emissions.
However in what is claimed to be the most comprehensive assessment to date, this new study examines the global carbon flows between 160 countries between 2009 and 2013. It shows that the total is closer to 8% of the global figure.
As well as air travel, the authors say they have included an analysis of the energy needed to support the tourism system, including all the food, beverage, infrastructure construction and maintenance as well as the retail services that tourists enjoy.
"It definitely is eye opening," Dr Arunima Malik from the University of Sydney, who's the lead author of the study, told BBC News.
"We looked at really detailed information about tourism expenditure, including consumables such as food from eating out and souvenirs. We looked at the trade between different countries and also at greenhouse gas emissions data to come up with a comprehensive figure for the global carbon footprint for tourism."
The researchers also looked at the impacts in both the countries where tourists came from and where they travelled. They found that the most important element was relatively well off people from affluent countries travelling to other well to do destinations.
In the leading countries, US, China, Germany and India, much of the travel was domestic.
Travellers from Canada, Switzerland, the Netherlands and Denmark exert a much higher carbon footprint elsewhere than in their own countries.

Small island states like the Maldives are hugely dependent on long distance tourism. Getty Images

When richer people travel they tend to spend more on higher carbon transportation, food and pursuits says Dr Malik.
"If you have visitors from high income countries then they typically spend heavily on air travel, on shopping and hospitality where they go to. But if the travellers are from low income countries then they spend more on public transport and unprocessed food, the spending patterns are different for the different economies they come from."
When measuring per capita emissions, small island destinations such as the Maldives, Cyprus and the Seychelles emerge as the leading lights. In these countries tourism is responsible for up to 80% of their annual emissions.
"The small island states are in a difficult position because we like travelling to these locations and those small island states very much rely on tourist income but they are also at the same time vulnerable to the effects of rising seas and climate change," said Dr Malik.
Demand for international tourism is also being seen in emerging countries like Brazil, India, China and Mexico, highlighting a fundamental problem - wealth.
The report underlines the fact that when people earn more than $40,000 per annum, their carbon footprint from tourism increase 13% for every 10% rise in income. The consumption of tourism does "not appear to satiate as incomes grow," the report says.
The World Travel and Tourism Council (WTTC) has welcomed the research but doesn't accept that the industry's efforts to cut carbon have been a flop.

As countries get wealthier their citizens' appetite for global travel rapidly increases. Getty Images

"It would be unfair to say that the industry is not doing anything," said Rochelle Turner, director of research at WTTC.
"We've seen a growing number of hotels, airports and tour operators that have all become carbon neutral so there is a momentum."
Experts say that offsetting, where tourists spend money on planting trees to mitigate their carbon footprint will have to increase, despite reservations about its effectiveness.
Awareness is also the key. The WTTC say that the recent water crisis in Cape Town has also helped people recognise that changes in climate can impact resources like water.
"There is a real need for people to recognise what their impact is in a destination," said Rochelle Turner, "and how much water, waste and energy you should be using compared to the local population."
"All of this will empower tourists to make better decisions and only through those better decisions that we'll be able to tackle the issue of climate change."

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Death Toll Climbs In Karachi Heatwave

The Guardian - Michael Safi

Charity says at least 65 people have died in Pakistani city as temperatures exceed 40C

Residents sleep on the pavement in Karachi to escape the heat and frequent power outages. Photograph: Akhtar Soomro/Reuters

An intense heatwave across south Asia has killed dozens of people with sustained temperatures in excess of 40C (104F) coinciding with power cuts and Ramadan, when many Muslims avoid eating or drinking water.
At least 65 people have died in Karachi in recent days according to the charitable organisation that runs the central morgue in the Pakistani port city, as volunteers handed out water to labourers and others working outside in temperatures as high as 44C.
Local media reports claimed the death toll could have exceeded 100 in the sprawling megacity of 15 million, where high temperatures are exacerbated by an absence of green space, estimated to make up just 7% of the urban area.
Authorities in Karachi have not confirmed the death toll but urged people to stay indoors and keep drinking water.
Parts of the city have also been suffering from power cuts, particularly early in the morning when more people than usual have been waking to eat before sunrise in line with Ramadan fasting rituals.
During the annual month-long rite, Muslims refrain from eating or drinking anything including water between sunrise and sunset, though children, older people, the sick and pregnant women usually do not participate.
The Edhi Foundation, which runs Karachi’s central morgue, said most of the dead in the city were working-class people from poorer neighbourhoods, including children and elderly people.
“They work around heaters and boilers in textile factories and there is eight to nine hours of [scheduled power outages] in these areas,” Faisal Edhi, the head of the foundation, told Reuters.
Fazlullah Pechuho, the health minister of Sindh province, denied that anyone had died, however, telling the Dawn newspaper: “I categorically reject that people have died due to heatstroke in Karachi.”
A heatwave in 2015 left morgues and hospitals overwhelmed and killed at least 1,200 mostly elderly, sick, and homeless people.
In 2015, the Edhi morgue ran out of freezer space after about 650 bodies were brought in the space of a few days. Ambulances left decaying corpses outside in the sweltering heat.
Extreme temperatures were also recorded in neighbouring India, with parts of Maharashtra state reaching 47C on Monday.
More than 22,000 people died in heatwaves in India between 1992 and 2005, according to government data released last year.
Authorities say that figure has fallen dramatically since as a result of public health campaigns, including training medical staff to diagnose heat-related illnesses and sending colour-coded temperature warnings through the media and WhatsApp.
Last year, about 222 Indians died because of the heat, the government says, down from 1,111 in 2016 and 2,040 the year before.
Temperatures in Karachi are expected to stay above 40C until 24 May, according to weather forecasters. High temperatures were also predicted to last another 48 hours in India.

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Hitting Toughest Climate Target Will Save World $30tn In Damages, Analysis Shows

The Guardian - Damian Carrington

Almost all nations would benefit economically from keeping global warming to 1.5C, a new study indicates

Dunlaw Wind Farm at Soutra Hill North in the Scottish Borders. The US president has claimed that climate action is too costly. Photograph: Murdo Macleod for the Guardian

Achieving the toughest climate change target set in the global Paris agreement will save the world about $30tn in damages, far more than the costs of cutting carbon emissions, according to a new economic analysis.
Most nations, representing 90% of global population, would benefit economically from keeping global warming to 1.5C above pre-industrial levels, the research indicates. This includes almost all the world’s poorest countries, as well as the three biggest economies – the US, China and Japan – contradicting the claim of US president, Donald Trump, that climate action is too costly.
Australia and South Africa would also benefit, with the biggest winners being Middle East nations, which are threatened with extreme heatwaves beyond the limit of human survival.
However, some cold countries – particularly Russia, Canada and Scandinavian nations – are likely to have their growth restricted if the 1.5C target is met, the study suggests. This is because a small amount of additional warming to 2C would be beneficial to their economies. The UK and Ireland could also see some restriction, though the estimates span a wide range of outcomes.
The research, published the journal Nature, is among the first to assess the economic impact of meeting the Paris climate goals. Data from the last 50 years shows clearly that when temperatures rise, GDP and other economic measures fall in most nations, due to impacts on factors including labour productivity, agricultural output and health.
The scientists used this relationship and 40 global climate models to estimate the future economic impact of meeting the 1.5C target - a tough goal given the world has already experienced 1C of man-made warming. They also assessed the long-standing 2C target and the impact of 3C of warming, which is the level expected unless current plans for action are increased.
“By the end of the century, we find the world will be about 3% wealthier if we actually achieve the 1.5C target relative to 2C target,” said Marshall Burke, assistant professor at Stanford University in the US, who led the new work. “In dollar terms, this represents about $30tn in cumulative benefits.”
The estimated cost of meeting the 1.5C target is about $0.5tn over the next 30 years,” he said: “So our evidence suggest the benefits of meeting the targets vastly outweigh the costs.”
“We also calculated what’s going to be the additional economic cost if we hit 3C instead of 2C. This will cost the globe an additional 5-10% of GDP, relative to 2C; that is tens of trillions of dollars. These are very large numbers,” he said.
The researchers acknowledge there are significant uncertainties in their economic modelling, but said they are confident that keeping climate change to 1.5C is very likely to benefit the vast majority of the world’s people.
The exact size of the benefit will depend, for example, on whether new technologies are created that help societies adapt to global warming, such as clean, cheap air conditioning, or whether climate tipping points are passed, bringing more severe damage such as rapid sea level rise. “The caveats apply to both the impacts and the adaptation,” said Prof Noah Diffenbaugh, also at Stanford University.
The economic analysis did not include the impacts of climate change on areas that are harder to quantify, such as the natural ecosystems that are vital for clean air and water and fertile soils, or the health benefits of burning less fossil fuel. Including these would make the benefits of action even greater.
Prof Maximilian Auffhammer, at the University of California Berkeley, US, and not part of the research team said: “Translating the impacts of climate change into economic damages is challenging. Pinning down just how large the effects of climate will be on the long-term growth of GDP needs to be a high priority for future work.”
“I think the authors of this study are doing the best job possible, by basing their estimates on a rigorous analysis and clearly stating their assumptions,” said Prof Wolfram Schlenker, at Columbia University, US.

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