22/06/2018

Climate Change May Soon Hit Billions Of People. Many Cities Are Already Taking Action.

Columbia University - Earth Institute

Billions of people in big cities around the world face increasing climate-related risks, from heat waves to energy shortages. Here, a street scene in Dhaka, the capital of Bangladesh. (Kevin Krajick/Earth Institute)
Billions of people in thousands of cities around the world will soon be at risk from climate-related heat waves, droughts, flooding, food shortages and energy blackouts by mid-century, but many cities are already taking action to blunt such effects, says a new report from a consortium of international organizations.
The report, called The Future We Don’t Want, estimates that by 2050:

  • 1.6 billion people living in more than 970 cities will be regularly exposed to extreme high temperatures.
  • Over 800 million living in 570 cities will be vulnerable to sea-level rise and coastal flooding.
  • 650 million, in over 500 cities, will be at risk of water shortages.
  • 2.5 billion people will be living in over 1,600 cities where national food supplies will be threatened.
  • The power supply to 470 million people, in over 230 cities, will be vulnerable to sea-level rise.
  • 215 million poor urban residents living in slum areas in over 490 cities will face disproportionate climate risks.

The report was assembled by C40 Cities, a group of big cities working to face climate change; the Global Covenant of Mayors for Climate & Energy, which has signatories in thousands of cities representing some 700 million people; the Urban Climate Change Research Network (UCCRN), a global consortium of institutions and experts based at Columbia University’s Earth Institute; and the UK-based consultant group Acclimatise. It was presented this week at the Adaptation Futures conference in Cape Town, South Africa, where representatives of cities around the world are sharing ideas on how to become more resilient to changing climate.
“For decades, scientists have been warning of the risks that climate change will pose. Now we have the clearest possible evidence of just what these impacts will mean for [the] world’s cities,” said Mark Watts, executive director of C40 Cities. “Our research should serve as a wake-up call.”
The report features steps that major urban areas already taking to adapt. Cynthia Rosenzweig, co-chair of the UCCRN and head of the climate impacts group at Columbia’s Center for Climate Systems Research, said that if such efforts are scaled up and widely adopted, they would stem some of the worst effects.
Some of the efforts covered by the report include:

  • To battle extreme heat, Seoul has planted 16 million trees and expanded its green space by 3 square kilometers. The city has also set up shaded cooling centers for those unable to access air conditioning.
  • New York City is improving coastal flood mapping, strengthening large-scale coastal defenses and building smaller, strategically placed local storm surge barriers around the city.
  • São Paulo has set up reward schemes to encourage citizens to use less water, while investing in the city’s pipeline system to reduce water leakage.
  • Paris plans to establish more than 80 acres of urban agriculture within the city’s boundaries by 2020. By 2050, 25 percent of the city’s food supply will be produced in the metropolitan region.
  • London is improving drainage to ensure that key infrastructure can withstand heavy flooding, The city is also encouraging decentralized energy supplies to reduce the risk of widespread blackouts if any one power source is damaged.
  • Lima has created a poverty map of the city to help policy makers focus resources on the most vulnerable and under-served areas, where people are most exposed to extreme heat.

Many of the solutions being tried out by cities, as well as regional governments, investors and businesses, will be showcased at the Global Climate Action Summit,  in San Francisco, Sept. 12-14.

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How Climate Change And Scarce Resources Are Pushing Muslim Cattle Herders And Christian Farmers To The Edge Of Civil War In Nigeria

The Telegraph (UK)Adrian Blomfield

Clergymen carry white coffins containing the bodies of priests allegedly killed by Fulani herdsmen Credit: EMMY IBU/AFP  
In the fertile grasslands of central Nigeria the roar of a motorcycle is enough to instill fear in the Christian cattle herders stalked by an increasingly bloody conflict.
The rev of an engine is the first warning sign that gangs of kidnappers have emerged from the forest for their latest sortie in a battle over diminishing farmland that appears to be drawn along sectarian lines.
Across Africa’s most populous country, an undeclared war, triggered in part by climate change and fought over cattle, has turned Muslims and Christians against each other in a confrontation so bitter it threatens to tear Nigeria apart.
Warring over cattle is almost as old as human history in parts of Africa. But across a swath of the continent, cattle-related violence is unleashing more bloodshed than at any time in living memory.
Fights over cattle have claimed thousands of lives in South Sudan and the Central African Republic, worsening the humanitarian crises in two states devastated by civil war. Militias raised by armed cattle herders have brought anarchy to parts of northern Kenya, killing farmers white and black.
Relatives cry as they mourn during the funeral service for 17 worshippers and two priests Credit:  EMMY IBU/ AFP 
But nowhere are the consequences more potentially dangerous than in Nigeria, Africa’s richest, most populous and arguably most important country.
Hundreds of thousands have fled their homes; farms and villages in many states have been abandoned, raising fears of hunger, economic collapse and the spread of disease in camps for the displaced.
The perceived aggressors are mostly semi-nomadic cattle herders from the Fulani, an ethnic group numbering 20 million people with territory across West and Central Africa.
Nigerian Fulani, who are mostly Muslim, have traditionally pastured their cattle mostly in the north of the country.
But water and pasture are both disappearing thanks to climate change.
In some northern states, up to 75 percent of grassland has been swallowed up by desert. More frequent droughts, the disappearance of water sources and attacks by Boko Haram have combined to drive the Fulani and their herds into Nigeria’s fertile central farmlands, the country’s so-called Middle Belt — where much of the population is Christian.
A Fulani Muslim herder tends his cattle near Shendam, in central Nigeria Credit:  Jacob Silberberg/Getty 
Attempts by local officials and farmers to protect their crops and husbandry have led to gruesome reprisals.
In recent months solitary farmers tending their crops have returned to their villages, their severed hands stuffed into their pockets, in attacks meant to terrify others into abandoning their fields to the herders.
The villages themselves have come under attack by suspected Fulani gangs on motorcyles. Last month, 71 people were killed in a village in Kaduna state when the men on motorcycles roared in, opened fire on its fleeing inhabitants, before setting fire to homes and hacking children to death.
Not all the attacks have been on Christians, and at least some of the victims are Fulani killed by their fellow tribesmen.  At least 20 people were killed in a similar motorcycle attack on a village in the predominantly Muslim state of Zamfara.
Nor are all the attacks carried out by Fulanis with cows. Speaking to the lawlessness that has gripped northern Nigeria, Fulani youths believed to have lost their herds have set up kidnapping camps in the vast Rugu forest, from where they emerge on motorcycles to prey on pedestrians walking along isolated roads.
At least 100 people were kidnapped in a two-day kidnapping spree in Kaduna state last month, according to local officials.
But whatever the motivation, the conflict is increasingly being perceived as one between Muslims and Christians, a view only reinforced by an attack on a church in Benue state in April when two priests and 17 of their congregation were killed as they said Mass.
A house in the village of Bakin Kogi, in Kaduna state, northwest Nigeria, that was recently attacked by suspected Fulani herdsmen Credit:  STEFAN HEUNIS/AFP 
That attack has had a profound effect on Nigeria’s Christians, persuading many, justifiably or otherwise, that the Fulanis' real intent is dispossession, territorial acquisition and the expansion of Islam — all to be achieved by the ethnic cleansing of Christians.
“The reverend fathers were not farmers,” said Samuel Ortom, Benue State’s Christian governor. “They were not in the farm. The church where they were holding the Mass had no grass.
“The armed herdsmen have moved the narrative of the current crisis from search for grass to other obvious motives.”
As anger has mounted, Christian tribesmen have formed armed vigilante groups to take on the herders when they attack — and carry out reprisal attacks as well. In one recent moment of vengeance, Fulanis say 50 of their members, including children, were slaughtered.
Deepening the sense of crisis, prominent Christians have accused Muhammadu Buhari, Nigeria’s president, of turning a blind eye to the attacks because he too is a Fulani Muslim.
“The nation is now, more than ever so, divided along ethnic-religious configurations,” said Emmanuel Onwukibo, the coordinator of the Christian-dominated Human Rights Writers’ Association of Nigeria.
“Nigerians in their thousands have been gruesomely despatched to the Great Beyond by armed Fulani herdsmen who are being protected by the powers that be.”
While diplomats concede that President Buhari’s response been slow, there is no evidence to suggest he is siding with the herders, whose representatives insist they are being grossly misrepresented and are as much victims of the conflict as the Christian farmers.
A policeman walks next to people kneeling as they pray for victims of violent attacks across Nigeria at Ikeja St Leo Catholic Church in Lagos Credit:  PIUS UTOMI EKPEI/AFP 
The president has ordered the army to take action to restore order, but so stretched are the armed forces and so well armed their opponents — thanks to vast quantities of weapons flooding into the country after Libya’s civil war — that a military response is unlikely to work.
Instead, experts say, peaceful resolution is the only answer.
Under British rule, migration routes and grazing zones were set aside for the Fulani herds but these have disappeared through a mixture of corrupt land allocation and a soaring population of sedentary farmers in the Middle Belt. Opening them up is crucial, the experts maintain.
But such steps are unlikely to satisfy increasingly angry Christian officials and activists. Wole Soyinka, the Nigerian Nobel laureate and author, has warned that the country could descend into Yugoslavia-style ethnic bloodshed unless the Fulani attackers are tamed.
Mr Buhari is running out of time to take action that will convince Christians that there is not a “grand mischievous plan for territorial conquest, ethnic cleansing and religious imposition” by the Fulanis, warns John Onaiyekan, the Catholic archbishop of Abuja, Nigeria’s capital.
“The very survival of our nation is now at stake,” he said.

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Conflict, Climate Change Choke Efforts To Cure Poverty, Inequality: U.N.

ReutersEllen Wulfhorst

A pastoralist in northern Somalia, a region hit hard by drought. He lost almost half of his sheep flock that originally numbered 70. UNICEF/Sebastian Rich
UNITED NATIONS - Climate change and conflict are forcing growing numbers of people to go hungry, flee their homes and lose critical access to water, the United Nations said on Wednesday in a look at progress in its global development goals.
The number of hungry people has risen for the first time in a decade, and violence and conflict are causing food problems in 18 nations, the U.N. said in its assessment.
Member nations of the U.N. adopted 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in 2015 in a concerted effort to conquer poverty, inequality and other international woes by a 2030 deadline.
Progress has been hampered by climate change-related extreme weather and by violence and war, said Francesca Perucci, assistant director of the Statistics Division at the U.N. Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UN DESA).
“Countries face mounting challenges - a fast-changing climate, increased numbers of conflicts and inequality and persistent pockets of poverty and hunger,” she said at a U.N. news conference.
“For the first time in a decade, the number of people who are undernourished has increased from 777 million in 2015 to 815 million in 2016, mainly due to conflict, drought and disasters linked to climate change,” she said.

Sustainable Development Goals Report 2018: World Hunger infographic
Economic losses in 2017 came to more than $300 billion, among the highest in recent years due to three major hurricanes that hit the United States and countries in the Caribbean, the U.N. assessment said.
“With climate change ... we notice there’s a lot of significant economic losses and (that) probably will increase in coming years,” said Yongyi Min, chief of the SDG monitoring section at UN DESA, at the news conference.
More than 2 billion people are affected by water stress, when demand for water outweighs availability or supplies are of poor quality, she said.
“This number will increase with population growth and the effects of climate change,” Min said.
Increased violence and conflict caused the number of people driven from their homes to rise to a record high of 68.5 million last year, she said.
Sustainable Development Goals Report 2018: Youth Unemployment infographic
“With just 12 years left to the 2030 deadline, we must inject a sense of urgency,” U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said in a foreword to the assessment report.
Previous assessments by the U.N. of the goals have shown few and uneven advances, with conflict and violence to blame.
Outside assessments have also cited nationalism, protectionism and a need for more funding.
The cost of implementing the SDGs has been estimated at $3 trillion a year.



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