24/06/2018

Special Report: A 30-Year Alarm On The Reality Of Climate Change

AXIOS

Three decades have passed since then-NASA scientist James Hansen testified before the Senate Energy committee and alerted the country to the arrival of global warming.
Data: NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies; Graphic: Harry Stevens/Axios
  • The spinning globes compare the average temperature of the Earth's surface during the 30-year periods before and after Hansen's testimony, relative to the average surface temperature from 1901–2000.
  • The land surface temperature data is from a GISS analysis, while the ocean temperature data comes from NOAA. The smoothing radius was set to 1,200 kilometers.
Why it matters
The predictions of the world's leading climate scientists have come true, with dire consequence for the planet.
  • In the 30-year period prior to Hansen’s testimony, the Earth’s surface was, on average, less than 0.2°F warmer than the 20th-century average. In the 30 years since, the planet’s surface has, on average, undergone a six-fold temperature increase.
  • Hansen's temperature projections weren't exactly on target, since he projected a slightly higher amount of warming than what has occurred, but about two-dozen climate scientists told Axios that overall, his main conclusions were right.
In his June 23, 1988 testimony, Hansen made three key points:
  1. The Earth has gotten warmer.
  2. So warm, in fact, that the temperature trend was almost certainly due to the greenhouse effect, which is enhanced by emissions of gases like carbon dioxide and methane from burning fossil fuels.
  3. As a result, summer heat waves and other extreme weather events will become more common.
"The greenhouse effect has been detected, and it is changing our climate now,” Hansen said. When he spoke, 1988 was on track to become the hottest year of all-time. Since then, that record has been broken six more times – in 1990, 1998, 2010, 2014, 2015 and 2016.
In an interview with the Guardian this week, Hansen gave a bleak assessment of the last thirty years. “All we’ve done is agree there’s a problem,” he said. “We haven’t acknowledged what is required to solve it.”
Be smart
Uncertainty is often cited as a reason for not addressing climate change, but the longer we go without addressing it, the harder it will be to cut emissions and avert major impacts.
As Andrea Dutton, a climate scientist at the University of Florida, told Axios:
"The true debate lies in the solutions and in mobilizing the social and political will to act upon our knowledge.  Deciding not to act is a choice itself, and one that we cannot correct later.  The time to act is always now.  Because the longer we wait, the worse the outcomes will be."
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How Your Taxes Subsidise Fossil Fuels

Market Forces

There are a number of national tax-based subsidies that encourage fossil fuel production and consumption, adding up to a huge total of almost $11 billion each year.
Using estimates from the federal government’s Tax Expenditure Statement and Treasury papers, the table below lists a range of measures within the Australian federal tax system that encourage the production and use of fossil fuels.
This is Australian taxpayers’ money subsidising fossil fuels.
These figures are only ever going to be a low estimate.
Fossil fuel subsidies can be difficult to find in the tax system and it is likely that some will have been overlooked.
These figures do not include state-level subsidies, direct government handouts to coal, oil and gas projects, or public financing of international projects through export credit agencies or international financial institutions.
* Values represent the middle value of a range estimated by Treasury. i.e. 5 is reflective of a Treasury estimate of 0-10, 55 reflective of a Treasury estimate of 10-100.
** Values taken from Australian Government Budget 2016-17, Budget Paper 1. and Australian Government 2017-18, Budget Paper 1.
*** Three latest figures taken from Budget 2015-16 Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook – Tax Expenditures
All other measures and their corresponding values are estimates taken from the Australian government Treasury’s Tax Expenditure Statement published 25 January 2018.
By far the largest contributor to the tax-based subsidies total is the Fuel Tax Credit Scheme, which provides around $6 billion worth of credits and grants to cover the tax paid on fuel to reduce its overall costs to heavy users.
It is estimated that some 20% of these fuel tax credits go directly to fossil fuel producers.
We have included the full amount as it all goes to supporting the consumption of fossil fuels.
Australia also pays out significant subsidies through statutory effective life caps, which allow for accelerated depreciation and a shorter write-off period for many vehicles.
These tax deductions cost almost $2 billion worth of tax-payers’ money each year.
There are also a range of tax incentives for fossil fuel exploration and production, as well as measures encouraging aviation, shipping and motor vehicle use.

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Here Are Three Ways That Cities Can Adapt To Changing Climates

The Conversation

Many residents in cities in the global South have very poor and limited access to water. Sean Wilson
Cape Town’s “Day Zero” experience – the prospect of dam levels dropping dangerously low, taps running dry and water rations being distributed from public collection points – speaks powerfully to the urgency and complexity of climate change adaptation.
The recent arrival of the South African city’s winter rains mean that dam levels have begun rising again and it’s dodged the introduction of wholesale water rationing. For now.
But the drought which pushed Cape Town to the edge isn’t over yet. The threat of water rationing could still become a reality in 2019. And there will be other droughts, too, in Cape Town and beyond. Other cities that have experienced severe water scarcity include Melbourne in Australia, Los Angeles in the US, São Paulo in Brazil, Bolivia’s capital city La Paz and Maputo in Mozambique, to name but a few.
Cities in the global South are especially hard hit by droughts. This is because the resources and capabilities to expand and upgrade water infrastructures serving these cities remain scarce. Many residents in these cities have very poor and limited access to water in “normal” times. Things become even more dire in water scarce situations.
My doctoral and post-doctoral research focused on climate adaptation decision making and governance in southern African cities. In other words, how are people organising to reduce the risks that higher temperatures, intense rainfall and dry periods pose to city residents?
I’ll be sharing my findings at the Adaptation Futures conference, which is being held in Cape Town from June 19 to 21. It will be the first time that the international gathering of climate adaptation experts and practitioners will take place on the African continent.
My research suggests three lessons for any city looking to prepare for and manage climate extremes. These centre on preparation, leadership and an understanding that adaptation requires both big and small changes.

Lessons
Lesson 1: Do your homework and open it up to others
For sensible and effective action to happen in a time of crisis when rapid change is demanded, several things are needed. These include sustained investment in experimentation, robust research and anticipatory planning. A crisis creates or unlocks opportunities for change. But the groundwork must be laid to avoid knee-jerk reactions and short-term solutions with unknown, potentially negative consequences that can undermine sustainability.
For example, in Cape Town there is rapid expansion of groundwater abstraction and a big push to commission desalination plants. Both need significant investment and new infrastructure that has long-term implications for the water network, the affordability of water and the local ecology.
Over the last decade, Cape Town has been involved in preparing a number of strategies and plans identifying measures to manage water and climate risks. These laid important groundwork for evaluating options, but more work is needed.
These research, planning and advisory processes are important prerequisites to navigating a robust adaptation pathway. Crises have to be seen, understood, managed and leveraged as part of a much longer-term climate adaptation effort.
Cape Town’s crisis has shown how important it is for such technical deliberations to be opened up to public and political engagement. If this doesn’t happen, all the planning in world won’t help – because people will ignore or resist the planners’ conclusions.

Lesson 2: Collaborative leadership is crucial
Leadership and open communication that fosters trust and collaboration are essential to navigate times of panic and transition. This pertains to leadership in all spheres including political, intellectual, civic, business and administration. Such leadership is needed at all levels.
When leadership is defensive and divisive, as was the case in the early stages of the Cape Town water crisis, it leads to much blame and finger pointing. This can cause uncertainty and fragmented and inconsistent responses – which is exactly what happened in Cape Town.
The city government gradually started improving communication lines through initiatives like the Water Dashboard and the Water Outlook. This helped greatly in building a more cohesive set of actions and more inclusive and considered deliberations over the way forward.

Lesson 3: Big and small changes matter
Adapting cities to climate change involves a combination of small and big changes that need action from all sides. These changes need to explicitly address inequality.
In the case of adapting Cape Town to periods of water scarcity in the future, potential actions range from households and businesses reusing greywater on-site (for example using shower water to flush toilets) to the large-scale harvesting of stormwater to recharge underground aquifers. Many of these changes are costly and run the risk of further entrenching inequality and exclusion. Wealthy homes and businesses can afford to buy water saving technologies and alternative sources of water, like private boreholes, while low-income households and small businesses face rising municipal water bills.

Climate adaptation
These lessons are not unique to Cape Town’s water crisis. As experiences across the world suggest, these may be lessons that have to be learnt the hard way. Cities may need to face their own version of a crisis to galvanise action towards making the changes needed. But doing the preparatory work is an essential part of adapting.
Moving beyond coping with a crisis in the short-term to building the capacity to avoid, or at least better manage, such situations over the long-term lies at the heart of climate adaptation.

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