The Guardian View On Climate Change: A Global Heatwave

The Guardian - Editorial

The weather in Britain is only a small part of a global pattern and as the Arctic warms, it will make extreme events into the new, and dangerous, normal

A polar bear tests the thin sea ice in the Arctic. Photograph: Mario Hoppmann/AFP/Getty Images

The British are parochial about weather. It is our cherished grievance, not to be shared with foreigners. Perhaps it is the fact that our weather tends to come from the west, across the Atlantic, and not from our neighbours in Europe (unless it’s a “beast from the east”) which reinforces the belief that our weather is a uniquely British problem. But though we cannot say definitively that the current heatwave is caused by carbon emissions, it fits the pattern of long-term changes that we call climate. It is part of a global phenomenon, even if not the most important part. The really significant change is happening in eastern Siberia at the moment, where a completely unprecedented heatwave is warming that Arctic coastline, with consequences that are unpredictable in detail but surely bad on a large scale.
Siberia is a vulnerable point in the global climate system for two reasons. The obvious one is the Arctic ice. The more that melts, the less remains to reflect heat back into the atmosphere. Water, being dark, absorbs heat better so there is a feedback loop set up. That is worrying, but it may be less dangerous than the feedback caused by the melting of the layer formerly known as the permafrost. This releases carbon and methane – more methane will be released from under the warming sea – and both are powerful greenhouse gases. Instability in the Arctic affects the whole of the northern hemisphere, as it increases the chances that the northern jet stream, will stick for longer than usual in a particular pattern. When that happens, the weather stops changing in the affected areas. Heatwaves are prolonged and so are cold snaps. Extremes of every sort, such as the rains in Japan which have killed more than 100 people, become more likely. What seems to be happening at the moment is that a fixation of the jet stream has produced the heatwave in Siberia as well as ours here. Again, this is yet another feedback loop. This is a heatwave which makes further, hotter heatwaves more likely in the future.
Although there is enormous uncertainty about the exact progression of climate change, the direction of travel is entirely clear. This is a problem that demands coordinated global action. The Paris accords are an effort in that direction, but they are being sabotaged. British, or English nationalism about the weather is mildly comical but the selfish and ignorant attitudes of the Trump administration are purely tragic for the whole world. Still, there is more chance of changing the climate than there is of changing the mind of Mr Trump. While the US continues to sulk on climate change and to be driven by short-term imperatives of profit, the best any British government can do is to prepare for a change in the weather here. In 20 years’ time, the heat of the last week will no longer be news. It will be routine. The effect on old people, on schools, and on hospitals will be grim. A responsible government would be planning for this perfectly foreseeable outcome. Ours, however, is otherwise  preoccupied.

Links

• A Decade Of Lost Opportunities
• The Guardian View On Antarctica: The Worrying Retreat Of The Ice
• Australia's Climate Change Policies Won't Do Enough
• Climate Change: Another Record Coming That We Don't Want To Break
• See It, Say It: Climate Change
• Beyond Houston, A World Awash
• We Can No Longer Tolerate Climate Change Denial

'Unprecedented': Solar Panel Installations Soar, On Track To Triple 2017 Record

Fairfax - Peter Hannam

Rooftop solar panel installations soared by almost half in the first six months of 2018 as businesses eclipse residential take-up for the first time.

Cleaning up: Solar PV demand is soaring - for now. Photo: Jason South

In the January-June half, rooftop photovoltaic (PV) panel installations reached 701.9 megawatts, up 48.1 per cent from the same time a year earlier, according to Green Energy Markets, a consultancy.
NSW led the way with 183.6 MW of new rooftop panels, up 70 per cent from a year ago, adding the largest additional capacity of any state.
Queensland's 176.2 MW was the second largest during the half-year, up 35 per cent, while Victoria's 56 per cent jump to 86.8 MW lifted it to third spot.
The ACT posted the fastest growth, with installations up 130 per cent.

Rooftop figures by state compared to same time last year

Source: Green Energy Markets

Household systems now average about 5 kilowatts per system as families try to cut their exposure to higher electricity prices.
Falling unit prices, driven by a huge expansion of capacity in China, have been another factor in stoking demand even as states such as NSW lower the feed-in tariff paid for exporting surplus power to the grid.

Joining the solar rush: Lance Moody, solar project manager for Sun Metals Corp. Photo: Michael Chambers

Commercial boom
The long-predicted jump in commercial-sized systems – those of more than 15 kW – is finally happening. Such demand accounted for a quarter of June's PV demand, according to Ric Brazzale, chairman of Green Energy Markets.
"If we continue on at the same rate of installations we will end the year at between 1450 MW to 1500 MW – this will be more than 30 per cent higher than the 1100 MW installed last year," he said.

Solar PV growth
Installed capacity for residential and commercial systems

Source: Green Energy Markets

However, when emerging demand for power stations of 100 kW or larger capacity is included, the full size of the market is likely to be much larger by the end of this year.
So far 639 MW of such systems have been accredited this year and Green Energy Markets predicts another 1400 MW will be completed or accredited by December.
All up, total solar installations could approach 4000 MW or close to triple the previous record set in 2017.
"It's sort of unprecedented," Mr Brazzale said.

Solar PV installations in Australia

Source: Green Energy Markets

Rapid payback
Helena Li, president of the Asia Pacific sales division of Trina Solar – one of China's big three module producers – said commercial users can better match energy generation with their own demands than households.
"It's a three-to-four years' payback now for commercial [users]," Ms Li said. "It makes more sense, especially with electricity [prices] rising."
Solar panel prices are now about 50 cents per kilowatt of capacity, a figure that could shrink to "something below 40 cents",  Mr Brazzale said.
Restrictions imposed last month in China – easily the world's biggest market – will be one factor, as surplus supplies get exported to countries such as Australia.

As good as it gets?
However, Australia's surge may be shortlived. The Renewable Energy Target – which is driving the jump in solar farms – will likely be achieved as much as two years earlier than the 2020 deadline, Mr Brazzale said.
Falling wholesale power prices should start to result in lower retail costs, while the rollback of feed-in tariffs – including in NSW this month – will also dim some of the allure.
"This year may be as good as it gets," Mr Brazzale said.
Trina Solar, though, is more optimistic. Falling battery costs should give storage "a very competitive price" for many solar PV owners, including households, by 2019 or 2020, according to Yin Rongfang, the company's president of global sales.

Links

• The Rapidly Changing Dynamics Of Australia’s Grid
• Solar Shines In Global Shift To Renewables
• Corporations To Lead Charge Into Wind, Solar And Storage
• Solar And Wind Could Ease Australia's Water Shortage
• Bill Mckibben: 'There’s Clearly Money To Be Made From Sun And Wind'
• NEG: A Bipartisan Agreement To Disagree?
• Why Australia’s Wind And Solar Market Could Grind To A Halt
• Consumers Are Sick Of Coalition’s Coal Fantasy: They Are Going Solar
• Solar PV And Wind Are On Track To Replace All Coal, Oil And Gas Within Two Decades
• Stunning Drops In Solar, Wind Costs Mean Economic Case For Coal, Gas Is ‘Crumbling’
• 'Sabotage': Regulator slammed for move to slash solar feed-in tariffs
• Trina Solar readies for impact as China move tipped to slash PV prices

Watch 10 Billion Tons Of Ice Fall Into The Ocean

The Washington Post - Chris Mooney


A massive iceberg calving event captured at Helheim Glacier in Greenland on June 22, 2018, at 11:30 pm. The event occurred over approximately 30 minutes. (Denise Holland, New York University)

An enormous, four-mile-long iceberg break, or “calving” event, swept across Greenland’s massive Helheim Glacier last month, a new video has revealed.
The event, in which roughly half-mile-high columns of ice break free and tip onto their backs — and later collide downstream and shatter further — was filmed by Denise Holland, the field and logistics manager for New York University’s Environmental Fluid Dynamics Laboratory and NYU Abu Dhabi’s Center for Global Sea Level Change. The event took about 30 minutes. The video above has been sped up to capture the entire event in under two minutes.
During the summer in Greenland, breaks from glaciers are common but rarely so large. According to NYU, the area of floating ice created here “would stretch from Lower Manhattan up to Midtown in New York City.”
The total amount of ice that fell into the ocean was about 10 billion tons, as the break rippled across the entirety of the glacier’s ice face in half-mile-deep water, said David Holland, a glaciologist at NYU’s Courant Institute of Mathematics and NYU Abu Dhabi, and head of the research team.
“It’s a complete scene of chaos from berg formation,” David Holland said. “Everything possible to happen happened.”
The video captures two types of iceberg creation. First, already-floating parts of the glacier detach and drift away. Next, thicker sections of the glacier that are resting on the seafloor detach, lift up and tip backward as they float to the surface.
Helheim Glacier, one of the largest ice streams flowing from the Greenland ice sheet into the ocean, extends almost 100 yards above sea level at its front. But that’s just a tiny fraction of the glacier’s full vertical extent. The large majority of the glacier front is submerged.
The fjord in which the glacier rests is about 2,000 to 3,000 feet deep, and the deeper water is warmer than the water at the surface. This undermines the glacier at its lowest point, driving fast retreat.
The current break, at about 10 billion tons, represents just over 3 percent of Greenland’s annual ice loss of 286 billion tons, the cumulative result of many losses like this one across many glaciers (as well as large volumes of meltwater spilling directly into the ocean). Each break of 1 billion tons or more is such a massive event that it can create “icequakes” that can be detected far away, as the tipping ice crashes back against the still-attached parts of the glacier.
The researchers are collecting field data on these kinds of events to try to draw conclusions that will be applicable to the much larger, and harder to study, Antarctic. In the Antarctic, ice loss has the potential to be far worse — imagine a similar break across the front of the 75-mile-wide Thwaites Glacier, as opposed to the 4.5-mile-wide Helheim — but will be driven by similar dynamics.
“The better we understand what’s going on means we can create more accurate simulations to help predict and plan for climate change,” Denise Holland said in a statement.

Links

• Rapid response of Helheim Glacier in Greenland to climate variability over the past century
• Sea Level Change - Observations From Space
• Giant earthquakes are shaking Greenland — and scientists just figured out the disturbing reason why
• Scientists declare an ‘urgent’ mission – study West Antarctica, and fast