23/09/2018

Climate Change Must Be Dealt With Before It Unleashes Millions Of Global-Warming Refugees

South China Morning Post - Mike Rowse

Mike Rowse says mass migration, driven by war and politics, has already fuelled social discontent in Europe and America. But things may get much worse if climate change continues unchecked and leaves millions in at-risk countries homeless
Rohingya refugees fleeing Myanmar arrive at the border of Bangladesh in 2017. War and politics are common factors in mass migration, but soon climate change may be too. Photo: AFP
Millions of people around the world are being forced from their homes by violent circumstances. Many more aspire to move to another country in search of a better life for themselves and their families. These twin drivers of mass migration are already triggering political trauma in destination countries. And now there’s a third factor with the potential to cause human suffering on a massive scale: climate change.
There are two broad groups of reasons why people up sticks and move to a different country: the necessity-push and the opportunity-pull. Up until now, probably the most common push factors have been war and politics. During the violent partition that accompanied the birth of India and Pakistan in 1947, millions scrambled to get on the “right” side of the new borders. Closer to home, the Vietnam war ended with hundreds of thousands of those associated with the losing regime fleeing from the south, many stopping over in Hong Kong on their way to safety in a sanctuary country.
More recently, the appalling civil war in Syria has displaced millions of its citizens, mostly to adjacent countries such as Turkey and Jordan, though about a million flooded into western Europe, and many settled in Germany. A military crackdown in Myanmar has forced over 700,000 Rohingya Muslims to flee to neighbouring Bangladesh. A question mark hangs over the residence rights of four million people in India, who have been left off a citizens’ register on suspicion of being illegal immigrants from Bangladesh.
The pull factor in migration has undergone a step change in recent years, thanks to technological progress. The possibility of a better life somewhere else has historically been uncertain because of a lack of reliable information about what life “over there” was really like. It took time for news to filter back and it was safer to maintain the status quo.
A Canadian immigration officer interviews a Vietnamese family in a refugee camp in Sham Shui Po in 1979. Photo: C.Y. Yu
 But with the prevalence of mobile phones now, everyone can see for themselves pictures of what life is like in wealthy countries. The certainty of misery in poorer parts of the world can now be contrasted with images of well-fed people living more comfortable lives overseas.
The most desirable destination countries have struggled to cope with the throngs of arrivals both practically and politically. Recent election results in Europe have shown conclusively that anti-immigrant feelings run high. Italy’s new government has taken a hard line against would-be migrants from Africa, even turning ships away.
In Sweden, an anti-immigration party finished a close third behind two established middle-of-the-road parties in recent elections. German politics is still affected by the arrival of a million migrants in 2015 and 2016, mostly from Syria; the hard-right Alternative for Germany is now the main opposition party.
In Denmark, Austria and Hungary, to name a few, general public sentiment is against large numbers of people being allowed entry and settlement. Some analysts believe that immigration was a major factor in the Brexit vote in Britain, and in the election of Donald Trump in the United States. In Australia, the treatment of asylum seekers is a hot-button issue.
One of Donald Trump’s campaign promises was to build a border wall between Mexico and the US. Photo: AFP
In all of the cases, the exact causes vary, but cultural differences, religious beliefs and sometimes naked racism play some part.
Into this tricky mix, let us add climate change. The world’s climate has always varied through the ages, as the deniers never cease to point out. But the scientific community has reached a high degree of consensus that human activity – in particular, the widespread use of coal and other carbon-emitting fuels since the modern industrial era began – is causing global warming.
According to the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, 2018 is on track to be the fourth hottest year on record. Just three other years have been hotter: 2015, 2016 and 2017.
We in Hong Kong have just experienced the strongest typhoon on record. Scientists say there may be fewer – but bigger and stronger – such storms in future. At a global level, a real danger is that melting polar caps will cause sea levels to rise and leave several countries under water. Already, the government of the Maldives has held a cabinet meeting underwater to highlight the threat.
The islands’ population is under half a million – perhaps they could be squeezed into Sri Lanka. What about Fiji and other islands at risk in the Pacific? Maybe New Zealand could take them in. But what are we going to do if Bangladesh should slip beneath the waves? Where do we expect 163 million people to go?
An aerial view of an atoll in the Maldives, which faces dangers such as rising sea levels and more intense storms. Photo: Reuters
The world knows what it has to do to avert tragedy. The problem is the costs of coping with climate change, which have to be paid right here, right now, and which voters must be persuaded to cover. But in such a critical hour, the leader of the free world has abdicated responsibility.
Not content with pulling the US out of the Paris climate accord, Trump has put new emphasis on the coal industry in America. At his age, he might not need to worry about the long-term consequences of his pro-coal policy changes. But as a father and grandfather, he should be. His grandchildren in particular – like the rest of the world – will not forgive him.

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NASA launches Satellite To Precisely Track How Earth's Ice Is Melting

The Guardian - 

The new satellite will provide a more complete picture of the planet’s ice loss. Photograph: Modis/Aqua/NASA
The world will soon have a much clearer picture of how quickly humans are melting Earth’s ice and expanding the seas, with data collected by a sophisticated satellite launched by NASA.
Every 91 days, the $1bn, decade-in-the-making creation will orbit over more than 1,000 paths. The satellite, about the size of a Smart car, will point six lasers at ice sheets in the Arctic and Antarctica. It will then calculate how long the beams take to bounce back. NASA will be able to more accurately measure the heights of ice sheets and the thickness of remaining sea ice.
“With sea ice, we’ve been able to measure the extent (or area) really well since about 1980 … but what we haven’t been able to measure is the thickness,” said Tom Neumann, NASA’s deputy project scientist for the mission. “Thickness is a key piece of the puzzle because thinner sea ice is broken up more easily by storms. It melts faster. So it gives you some insight into why the area is changing the way it is.”
Melting ice in Greenland and Antarctica has increased the global sea level more than a millimeter per year, a third of the overall increase, according to NASA. Sea-level rise is getting faster, and seas could be several feet higher by the end of the century.
The IceSat-2, launched Saturday, replaces an original satellite that has been out of commission since 2009. Between 2003 and 2009, the measured sea ice lost 40% of its thickness, Neumann said.
Since then, NASA has used a plane to take more rudimentary measurements of ice melt for about a month per year in the Arctic and Antarctic. That covered less ground but allowed NASA to monitor the fastest changing parts of the ice sheets and sea ice.
Neumann said it’s possible the satellite will find ice loss beyond what NASA has measured so far. Gaps in data, including in east Antarctica, could show ice shrinking or growing.
The new satellite will provide more complete coverage and measure to within a centimeter.
“In the time it takes someone to blink, sort of half a second, IceSat-2 is going to collect 5,000 measurements in each of its six beams, and it’s going to do that every hour, every day … it’s a tremendous amount of data,” Neumann said.
Melting ice has increased sea levels more than a millimeter per year. Photograph: NASA
While Donald Trump doubts the scientific consensus around man-made climate change and his administration is rescinding standards to stall warming, Neumann said multiple federal agencies want to see the satellite data when it starts coming back in October.
The US Geological Survey is interested in the elevation data, and the navy would like to look at how changes will affect shipping channels, he said. With ice melt, new routes are expected to open through the Arctic, significantly reducing shipping times.
NASA has an entire fleet of satellites observing Earth, including for signs of climate change. Trump this year proposed cutting the budget that funds many of the others.
Private companies and public interest groups and even the state of California have announced their own plans for climate-related satellites.
A collaboration between the Environmental Defense Fund and Harvard University is expected to launch in 2021 and as will pinpoint methane leaks from oil and gas operations.
Steven Hamburg, chief scientist for EDF, said researchers realized they could build the satellite faster and cheaper than the government. EDF research suggests oil and gas companies in the US leak 60% more methane than environmental regulators estimate.
Methane traps far more heat than the more common carbon dioxide. Because it is short-lived, cutting emissions would have a rapid impact on temperatures, Hamburg said.
The European Space Agency has a satellite that measures greenhouse gases, but it doesn’t specify in detail where leaks are happening. GHGSat, a private company, expects to launch a second greenhouse-gas-monitoring satellite soon.

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Energy Policy Captive To Lobbyists And 'Mad Ideologues', Tim Flannery Says

The Guardian - 

Five years after the Climate Commission’s axing, its former head says there has been progress as well as setbacks
‘We’re being held hostage at a federal level,’ Tim Flannery told Guardian Australia. Photograph: Eamonn McCabe for the Guardian
Five years since the Abbott government scrapped the Climate Commission, the environmentalist Tim Flannery says our energy policy remains hostage to lobbyists, political self-interest and “mad ideologues”.
But the organisation Flannery helped start from the ashes of Abbott’s climate bonfire, the Climate Council, says that attitudes have shifted substantially since 2013 – at least those outside federal parliament.
“We’re being held hostage at a federal level,” Flannery told Guardian Australia.
“It has been a disgrace. Our failures are the failures of a small group of politicians who are supposed to be acting in the national interest. Instead, they’re using energy policy as a cudgel, they’re listening to paid lobbyists and doing their bidding.”
“I don’t want to say any more because I’ll just get angry.”
Flannery was the chief commissioner of the Climate Commission, a government-backed research body whose remit was to communicate reliable and authoritative information about climate change.
The commission lasted just two years, and was almost immediately scrapped by the Abbott government after the 2013 election. Flannery and other commissioners decided to subsequently launch the Climate Council as an independent not-for-profit body.
“We raised $1.5m in 10 days,” recalls Amanda McKenzie, the council’s chief executive.
“At the time we went out, quite on a limb, because we had no funding. We said we will go ahead if the public backs us. It was the largest crowdfunding campaign in Australian history. Thousands of people were contributing.”
“I look back on that time as a really hopeful moment, thinking the community is behind us on this. More and more Australians are concerned about the issue. That concern has elevated over time.
“We had no idea that we would still be, five years later, battling for any action on an federal government level.”
Flannery points out that Australia’s emissions continue to increase “at a time when they need to be going down”. The federal government has abandoned any commitment to meeting the Paris emissions reduction targets. The new prime minister, Scott Morrison, famously used a lump of coal as a prop in parliament.
Scott Morrison with a lump of coal during Question Time in the House of Representatives. Photograph: Mick Tsikas/AAP
That state of affairs might cause some to question whether any progress had been made during the past five years. But putting federal politics to one side, both Flannery and McKenzie say strides have been made by individuals, local and state governments.
“I think [without the Climate Council] we’d be a long way behind in terms of public awareness, we’d be a huge distance behind,” Flannery said. “Those who were seeking to mislead would be [not held to account].”
“I’m immensely proud of it and I think we’ve made a huge difference”.
Flannery said the Climate Council initially sought to be a research and information body, filling the gap left by the disbanding of the commission. But in recent years it has taken on a broader remit, actively running programs to support action.
“We decided we needed to expand our remit, we’re running out of time to deal with this issue and we needed to pull out all stops.
“I think we’ve got to use every leverage point we can at the moment because we’re running out of time. We need to find those programs that work, get involved and start leading them.”
One of those programs, which Flannery says he is “most proud of”, is a partnership that supports local governments to transition to clean energy.
“What we didn’t realise [five years ago] was that state governments would step into the vacuum and that local governments would step into the vacuum,” McKenzie said.
In five years, the council has released more than 100 publications.
“If we had failed, it would not only have set back the entire climate change discussion in Australia, it would have given the conservatives an opportunity to say how little everyone cares about climate change,” Flannery said.
“There will be a need for the Climate Council I think for decades, because the problem isn’t going to be solved for decades. It’s a pretty tough thing to be pushing against this and find you’re constantly going backwards. But I’m nothing if not stubborn.”

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