14/11/2018

Global Report Highlights Australia’s Renewables Potential Amid Mixed Signals For Coal

The Guardian -  |

Australia singled out for possible hydrogen boom, but also forecast to increase coal production
A new report predicts Australia’s coal production will increase despite strong potential for solar. Photograph: Tim Ireland/PA
Australia is singled out as a country with strong potential for new hydrogen production facilities in the latest World Energy Outlook, which paints an uncertain future for coal exports and strong projected growth for solar power.
The new stocktake from the International Energy Agency (IEA) says in resource-rich countries such as Australia, hydrogen facilities could be built to sit alongside solar photovoltaic and wind facilities. The report says under such a set-up, Australia “could provide nearly 100m tonnes of oil equivalent of hydrogen, equivalent to 3% of global gas consumption today.”
But the report also finds Australia is the only export-oriented country projected to ramp up coal production significantly over the next 20 years, with some signs the international coal market was more resilient than had been expected.
The report finds Australia’s coal production is projected to exceed that of the United States by the late-2020s, but investment in export-oriented coalmining remained subdued, because of “an uncertain market and policy environment”.
Globally, coal made a comeback in 2017, but how long it remains in the mix is a function of decisions governments make about scaling back carbon emissions and driving the transformation to renewables, the report finds.
It says a slump after 2014 prompted some analysts to conclude coal was now in terminal decline, but in 2016 coal prices started to rebound, demand increased in 2017 and prices continued to rise into 2018, leading to sustained profits for coal producers.
It says the recent trends suggest coal demand “could be more resilient than some expect, especially among developing economies in Asia” – but what happens next is “highly contingent on how policies evolve”.
The coal comeback is a mixed picture. Coal demand is under pressure in advanced economies “due to low electricity demand growth, strong uptake of renewables-based capacity and, in the United States, the availability of inexpensive natural gas” – but there has been a rise in demand in China and India.
While both countries are also pursuing renewables, “robust growth in electricity demand” in India will create a near doubling in coal-fired power output to 2040, and India will import more coking coal to service demand in the iron and steel industries.
The report predicts India will overtake Australia and the United States in the early 2020s to become the world’s second-largest coal producer behind China. It also notes that investment in new coal-fired power plants in 2017 was at its lowest level in a decade, and there was a 50% drop in investments in China, with Beijing promising to reach a peak in CO2 emissions by 2030 or earlier.
Tim Buckley, the director of energy finance studies at Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis Australasia, said the outlook for Australian industry depended on whether governments delivered on policies to address climate change or not.
But he noted that under both the new policy and sustainable development scenarios considered by the IEA, Australia’s coking coal and thermal coal exports would face challenges. “Solar and wind are the largest two sources of new capacity globally,” Buckley said.
“The vast majority of that is happening in the Asia Pacific, which is exactly where our thermal coal industry says it’s going to get 400m tonnes of new growth.”
The report says the electricity sector is experiencing its most dramatic transformation in a century, and the increasing cost-competitiveness of solar photovoltaic will push its installed capacity beyond that of wind before 2025, past hydropower around 2030 and past coal before 2040.
The report posits three scenarios – new policies, current policies, and sustainable development – as points of reference about the speed of the transformation between now and 2040. Buckley said if the sustainable development scenario was achieved to meet the 1.5C goal of the Paris agreement, demand for coking coal would drop by a third by 2040.
“This report shows they are not taking into account the massive structural change and deflationary nature of renewable energy,” he said.
“The best way of preparing for transition is to have a plan and develop industries that are not in long-term decline, be that tourism, education, agriculture, wine or renewable energy.”

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Woodside Boss Peter Coleman Calls For Australia To Introduce A Carbon Price

ABC - Elysse Morgan



Key points:
  • Woodside boss Peter Coleman says the time for Australia to act on climate change is now
  • Woodside has joined other resource giants BHP and Rio Tinto in calling for change
  • Mr Coleman says individual companies may help change broader corporate resistance to a carbon price
Australia's biggest oil and gas producer Woodside is now calling for a carbon price.
Speaking on the ABC's The Business, chief executive Peter Coleman said the time to act on climate change was now.
"We need a price on carbon, we need to ensure that the most effective energy gets into the system," he said.
"Our legacy needs to be one that both our children and our grandchildren are proud that their parents gave to them and that opportunity is now, so we think there is a will to act, the time is now, and we need to start having good policy debate."
It is a major reversal from the company's stance several years ago, when its then-chief Don Volte campaigned against the Gillard government's emissions pricing scheme.
Mr Coleman's stance will likely make for some awkward conversations at the Business Council, where he sits on the board.
Woodside Petroleum CEO Peter Coleman says action on climate change is needed "to make our children and grandchildren proud" (Supplied: Woodside)
The council was another very vocal critic of Australia's previous carbon price, but Mr Coleman said he would not be trying to change the council's stance.
"I accept that the Business Council represents many, many members with diverse views both in the resources sector and manufacturers, so I am not going to talk about where the Business Council is going with this," he said.
"We think it is time for Woodside to step up, we think it is time for industry to step up, it is difficult for industry associations to do that themselves.
"Hopefully by coming out and talking about this in a very clear and thoughtful way, there will be others that will come behind us and say yes, we are of the same view and we will start to develop momentum over time."

Carbon pricing backed by BHP and Rio
Momentum could already be building.
Rio Tinto's boss Jean Sebastien Jacques told The Business in late October that the company remains steadfast in its support of putting a price on emissions.
"Our policy has not changed. We believe in climate change, we believe in carbon pricing," he said.
"We will convey our message to whoever is in power in Australia, in the US, in Canada and in China to make sure that our views are well understood.
"We want as a part of the mining industry to be a part of the solution to climate change."



In the same week BHP released a report stating that a "market-based carbon price could minimise the costs of a low carbon transition by making clear the marginal cost of reducing emissions across all sources".
Last week software billionaire Mike Cannon-Brookes, who has started a social media storm with his campaign for a clean energy future titled "#fairdinkumpower", was also planning to push for a carbon price.
"The biggest kind of thing we can do I guess is put in place a carbon price," he told ABC's 7.30 program.
"Regardless what you think of that science, if we wait to see if the scientists are right or not, it will be too late to act.
"So, prudence dictates that we think about what contribution we can make, individually and collectively, to mitigating the effects of climate change."

Government says it will hit targets without carbon price
However, Energy Minister Angus Taylor said the Government was confident Australia would hit its emissions reduction targets without the need for a carbon price.
"So the crucial issue here is are we going to reach our outcomes," he told RN Breakfast.
"We reached our Kyoto outcomes easily, we will reach Kyoto two, over and above what is required, and we are well on track to reach Paris."
Mr Taylor said current policies are working and the Government is "bringing emissions down".
"We are going to go from 17.5 terawatt hours to 44.5 of solar and wind in the national market in the next three years — this is unprecedented — from 9 per cent up to 30 per cent," he said.
The Business Council has been contacted for comment.

LNG industry emissions to surge by decade's end
CO2 emissions from LNG industry
         LNG emissions projections to 2020 (Mt CO2-e)
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Scientists Warn Australia's Water Security Threatened By Climate Change

SBS - Biwa Kwan

Scientists are urging the Australian government to protect the diminishing water supply to southern Australia.



Australia is facing more severe floods and droughts as rainfall patterns diminish over the past three decades, a new report has warned.
Co-author Professor Will Steffen from the Climate Council said the report shows an intensification of drought and floods.
“Climate change is shifting our rainfall patterns and increasing the severity of droughts and floods. We’ve always been a sunburnt country, but things are getting worse,” he said.
Grain feed is left for sheep grazing on a failed crop on crop and livestock farmer Wayne Dunford's Lynton Station west of Parkes. AAP
The Murray-Darling Basin alone, which produces a third of the country’s food supply, has experienced a 41 per cent decline in flow by over the last 20 years, according to the report.
Co-author Lesley Hughes said that is going to have significant impact on drought-affected farmers and agricultural production and exports.
"Australia’s water cycle is like it is on steroids due to climate change," she said.
She said the sharp decline in rainfall has exacerbated the impacts of droughts and floods.
“During droughts as water dries up in streams, rivers and dams. We get increasing concentrations of salt, of nutrients and sediments – and that all affects our water supply,” Professor Hughes said.

Average annual rainfall across Australia.
Bureau of Meteorology/Climate Council
“At the other end of the spectrum, we see severe impacts on health. Because we get flooding of sewage treatment plants and we have seen increases in the past in Australia, increases in outbreaks like Giardia and Cryptosporidium which mean we have to boil water.”
Seven climate change experts have authored the report, which collates the scientific peer-reviewed literature from the last few decades to give an overall picture of rainfall decline, drought exacerbation and flooding intensity.


‘Water cycle on steroids’: Climate Council says climate change worsening drought impacts

 Sydney, Melbourne to among hardest areas hit
The report states Australia’s most populated cities will be among the areas hardest hit in coming decades, with the declining rainfall resulting in a reduced water supply.
“Basically the desalination plants that we put in place - about six of them at the cost 10 billion - they will help us for the next 10-15 years,” said report co-author, Professor Rob Vertessy.
“But after that population growth will mean that we will have to consider new augmentations in many of our big capital cities.”
The former head of the Bureau of Meteorology said the projected population growth of an extra 3 million people in both Sydney and Melbourne by mid-century is a concern.

‘Climate refugees affect regional security’
Professor Vertessy said mass migration of climate refugees would impact on regional security.
“I think the whole world has to face up the problem of the mass migration of climate refugees,” he said.
Aerial view of near the town of Whitecliffs, New South Wales, showing the earth works in preparation for flood mitigation. AAP
“There are some serious hotspots at the moment for water security, particularly for the Middle East and the North Africa region. And some of the countries in South Asia that are below the Himalayas that depend on glacial melt water.
“If you look out far enough, it seems very clear to me and people who are watching this, that there will be large parts of the world that won't be able to support the populations that they currently support.”

Government urged to act
Professor Hughes said there is an urgent need for a stronger federal government climate policy, saying that phasing out coal would be the best long-term solution.
“As we're all aware Australia has no federal climate policy. Australian emissions have been rising every quarter since March 2015. Australia is lagging beind the rest of the world when we should be leading on climate change action.
“So it is extremely important, if we are able to stablilise the climate by the second half of this century that we have rapid and deep emission cuts. We need federal leadership on this.”
Rain clouds are seen forming just outside the regional NSW town of Harden.
AAP
Government defends 'strong' climate policy
Finance Minister Mathias Cormann has insisted the federal government's climate change policy is "strong" and "effective".
WA Liberal senator Dean Smith has challenged the government to strengthen its policy to appeal to the youth vote based a Newspoll analysis.
Prime Minister Scott Morrison and Deputy Prime Minister Michael McCormack walk along a dry damn during a visit to Mulloon Creek Natural Farm near Bungendore. AAP
The poll results showed 27 per cent of 18 to 34-year-olds would allocate their primary vote to the coalition, compared with 46 per cent who would support Labor.
Senator Cormann told the ABC he believes the federal government's policy doesn't need changing.
"We are dealing with climate change," he told the ABC.
"But in a way that doesn't undermine the opportunity for young people in particular to get a job, to build a career in Australia into the future.
"My view and our view is that we have to continue to take strong and effective action in relation to climate change but in a way that is economically responsible."

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