A huge swathe of Australia is forecast to roast in mid-40 degree heat
on Friday, with more records likely to be broken at the tail-end of a
heatwave that set a slew of national highs last month.
The mercury
is tipped to reach at least 45 degrees over a region stretching from
northern Western Australia into Victoria and the NSW Riverina.
A view of the sun rise from Newport beach
in Sydney's north on December 28, 2018 - the warmest night on record for
Australia for that month. Credit: Nick Moir
At 3pm, Melbourne had touched its predicted top of 42 degrees, while Avalon to the city's west reached 44.9 degrees.
Walpeup
in the state's north had reached 46.6 degrees - not far shy of
Victoria's all-time record of 47.2 degrees set in 1939 - while across
the border in South Australia, Marree get to 46.8 degrees.
Sydney continued to be spared the worst of the heat with a maximum of
just 28.3 degrees although the western suburbs were well into the
mid-30s. Hay in the Riverina was the hottest in NSW at 45.3 degrees.
"It's definitely been a prolonged spell of heat," Graeme Brittain, a meteorologist for Weatherzone, said.
Twin
high pressure systems have all but set up camp over the Tasman and the
Great Australian Bight, leaving the heat to pool in a broad trough that
has oscillated marginally north and south for more than a week.
Early
on in the event, a slew of Australian records were set, such as a
record 40.21 degrees average maximum for December on the 27th of the
month.
That mark was also the second hottest day for any month of the year, the Bureau of Meteorology said.
The following overnight temperatures also brought Australia's highest average minimum December temperature of 24.16 degrees.
December
29's minimum was almost as warm, coming in at an average of 23.66
degrees - the second highest minimums on record for any December, the
bureau said.
The mercury is due to rise above 40 degrees across the State on Friday. Vision: Bureau of Meteorology.
Melbourne is due to get some relief by Friday afternoon, with Saturday's maximum tipped to reach a relatively chilly 21 degrees.
Coastal NSW and Sydney will heat up on Saturday with temperatures in the mid-to-high-30s forecast.
Relief
from the heat over south-eastern Australia will be temporary, though,
with another spike in temperatures likely by next weekend, Weatherzone's
Mr Brittain said.
Second-hottest year for daytime readings
The year-end boost to temperatures meant Australia posted its hottest December on record for maximums.
Australian December maximum temperature anomaly
Based on the average for 1961-90. Source: BOM
Average readings were more than two degrees above the 1961-90
baseline for both maximum and mean temperatures, bureau data shows.
That
hot end to 2018 also suggests last year was Australia's second-hottest
year on record for maximum temperatures, trailing only 2013.
Australian annual maximum temperature anomaly
Based on the average for 1961-90. Source: BOM
Mean temperatures for 2018 were the third-warmest on record, with the bureau due to release its year-end report in coming days.All
but one of the country's top 10 hottest years have occurred since 2005,
a result "in line with long-term trends resulting from anthropogenic
climate change", the bureau said in a preliminary summary on 2018's national weather. Links
As we reflect on a year of extreme weather and ominous climate talks, Guardian environment writer Fiona Harvey explains why 2019 could see some much-needed breakthroughs
People enjoying the heatwave on Bournemouth beach in Dorset as the hot
weather spread across the UK in summer, marking the driest start to a
summer since modern records began in 1961.
Photograph: Andrew Matthews/PA
Extreme
weather hit the headlines throughout 2018, from the heatwave across
much of the northern hemisphere, which saw unprecedented wildfires in
Sweden, drought in the UK and devastating wildfires in the US, to floods in India and typhoons in south-east Asia.
According to the World Meteorological Organisation, last year was the
fourth hottest on record and confirms a trend of rising temperatures
that is a clear signal that we are having an effect on the climate. Droughts, floods, fiercer storms and heatwaves, as well as sea level rises, are all expected to increase markedly as a result.
Late in the year there was also the starkest warning yet from scientists of what our future will be if we allow climate change to take hold. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,
the global body of the world’s leading climate scientists, which has
been producing regular reports on the state of climate science since
1988, produced its latest comprehensive overview examining what the future will look like if we undergo 1.5C (2.7F) of warming.
That
does not sound like a lot – most people would be hard put to notice a
temperature difference of 1.5C – but in climate terms, 1.5C above
pre-industrial levels is enough to take us into the danger zone. It
would see the mass die-off of coral reefs, the extinction of some species,
rising sea levels, wet areas of the world becoming wetter and dry areas
drier, and the decline of agricultural productivity across swaths of
the globe.
That is a future we should obviously try to avoid. But the UN climate conference
in Poland that ended the year’s climate-related events in December
showed little sign that the urgency of the scientists’ warnings had been
heeded.
Instead, countries discussed a “rulebook” for putting the 2015 Paris
agreement into practice, including such arcane matters as how countries
measure and verify their emissions, and how often they should report on
them, and rows over carbon credits.
In Poland, there were no firm commitments to ramp up
countries’ national targets in line with scientific advice, and this is
unlikely to happen before 2020 at the earliest. On current national
emissions-cutting targets, we are in for about 3C of warming. Yet the
IPCC warned that if we want to avoid 1.5C of warming, we have about 12 years
to bring global emissions under control and swiftly move to just half
of their current level. That represents a massive shift needed in the
global economy, and yet emissions worldwide look to be moving upward
again slightly after a decade in which they showed signs of stabilising.
There was also bad news from the US at the talks, which played little part as Donald Trump prepares to withdraw from the Paris agreement, except to hold a side event at the conference celebrating a bright future for coal.
Looked at this way, the omens from 2018 were not good. Fortunately,
however, 2019 may indeed be a breakthrough year. Public opinion is
mobilising around the world and politicians and businesses are paying
attention. There will be a series of high-profile events that will
engage the public and governments and may provide a better way forward
than was managed last year.
Chief among them is the promise of António Guterres,
the UN secretary general, to hold a summit for world leaders that will
require them to face up to the dangers of climate change head on.
Guterres is uncompromising, warning in Poland that it would be “immoral
and suicidal” not to take firm and urgent action commensurate with the
scale of the problem.
Leaders will be put on the spot, and will come under very public
pressure as coalitions of civil society groups seek to put their case
around the summit and in the lead-up to it. The role of women, who are
among the most vulnerable to climate change, will be highlighted, and
the role of young people, who will have to live with the consequences of
their elders’ mistakes in a warming world.
The French president, Emmanuel Macron,
is also holding a One World Summit, planned for the summer, at which
the focus will be on persuading businesses to take a leading role,
investing in projects to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and changing
the way they use energy.
There are clear signs of hope on climate change also in the rapidly falling cost of renewable energy technology, which is now competitive with fossil fuels. And the Keep it in the ground campaign has succeeded in encouraging many investors to move their money out of fossil fuel stocks.
But most of all the civil society campaigns which have ramped up in
2018 and look set to increase their momentum in the coming year are
taking effect. Public opinion around the world is that our leaders,
governments and businesses should be doing more on this vital issue.
This can be seen in some unexpected ways, such as the rise of veganism and flexitarian
eating, as people seek to reduce their impact on the climate from
eating meat. Through well-publicised and effective movements and
actions, more and more people are refusing silently to acquiesce in
ignoring the dangers to the climate.
Beachgoers ride the surf at Mt Maunganui in February 2018 after last year began with the hottest summer on record. Photo / File
A veteran climate scientist has called 2018 our hottest year on record.
Niwa isn't due to release its official summary for the year until early
next week, but Professor Jim Salinger has already picked it the warmest
on records stretching back to 1867.
His calculations put 2018's mean annual land surface temperatures at 13.5C – or 0.85C above the 1981-2010 average.
His figure also surpassed the scorching years of 1998 and 2016, which were 0.80C and 0.84C above normal respectively.
Niwa meteorologist Chris
Brandolino said people would have to wait until next week to see the
climate agency's final numbers – but added Niwa's preliminary figures
showed 2018 tracking extremely close to 2016's record.
Last year got off to an unusually warm start with the hottest summer -
and the hottest recorded month ever, January - on the books.
"January, March, July and December were all at least 1C above normal,
with January being massive 3.2C above average - the hottest month ever,"
Salinger said.
The record warmth of 2018 was accompanied by warm seas around the country.
"For all months of the year sea surface temperatures around New Zealand
were well above average, with preliminary estimates for 2018 being 0.8C
above average."
Even as 2018
began, it was in the grip of a marine heatwave caused by a freak
combination of factors and which turned the Tasman Sea into a warm bath,
fired the record summer, and lured swarms of jellyfish to our shores.
"The heat of 2018 was also demonstrated by the record loss of ice on the Southern Alps," he said.
"We measured a nine per cent drop in just one year. That says it all.
We've never had anything like that in the glacier record."
The New Zealand extended temperature record, 1867 - 2018, compared
with the 1981 - 2010 normal. Bars represent individual years, the
orange line smoothed trends, and dotted red line the overall trend.
Source / Professor Jim Salinger
Globally, 2018 was likely to be
the fourth-warmest year ever recorded, with an average temperature
sitting 0.6C above the 1970-2000 baseline, and only behind the years
2015, 2016 and 2017.
"And more heating is predicted for 2019, by the UK Met Office," Salinger said.
"Their 2019 forecast indicates that the year 2019 will be close to a
record due to global heating and the added effect of the El Niño in the
tropical Pacific."
Salinger said that with six of our warmest years falling in the last two decades, the hand of climate change was unequivocal.
New Zealand's average temperature had grown 1.3C warmer over 151 years of records.
"It's roaring away," he said.
January, March, July and December were all at least 1C above
normal, with January being 3.2C above average. Source / Professor Jim
Salinger
He highlighted the UN's recent
report warning that the world had little over a decade to limit global
warming to 1.5C above pre-industrial levels – and only around two
decades to hold the Paris Agreement's symbolic 2C line.
"We have to get going now and make significant inroads in the next
years – there's now a global movement of youth calling for that."
Niwa's latest seasonal outlook, covering summer, predicted temperatures
were equally likely to be near or above average until the end of
February, with near-normal rainfall likely for most regions.
2018 most 'extreme year' for unusual weather events in Europe
Record heat and precipitation recorded across the continent
We're the 'last generation to act against climate change,' global organisation warns
Scientists urge global temperature should not rise 1.5C above pre-industrial levels
Europe
was one continent that experienced abnormal weather during 2018. Heat
and drought through spring and summer meant temperatures were well above
average in much of the northern and western areas.
Between May and July, Scandinavia had the driest and warmest period on record.
The
highest temperatures ever were recorded in the Arctic Circle. In
Helsinki-Vantaa Finland, figures how record long runs of warm
temperatures. There were 25 consecutive days of heat above 25ºC.
It
was exceptionally warm in the United Kingdom and Ireland too and
wildfires swept through Sweden burning up 25,000 hectares of land.
Budapest saw its iconic Danube river drying.
The Danube sunk to its record low in August. Reuters
Portugal had its hottest day of the 21st century at 44ºC and Armenia
had its warmest July since records began. Temperatures in capital
Yerevan reached 43.7ºC.
Dry conditions persisted in Germany, where
the April to September period was the second driest on record.
Frankfurt sweltered in 19 consecutive days of heat above 30ºC from 23
July to 9 August.
This WMO map shows a high number of weather and climate events in Europe last year. WMO
In February, Estonia experienced its second coldest period and
abnormal amounts of snow-covered southern France with falls of 15 to 30
cm in Nimes and Montpellier.
Record snow fell in southern Italy, especially in Naples.
May and June was marked by exceptional rainfall and thunderstorms.
In
October, an intense low-pressure weather system in the Mediterranean
Sea brought deadly flooding and high winds to several countries.
Italy was hit with gusts reaching 179 kmh at Monte Cimone.
The system sparked heavy rainfall, with 24-hour totals up to 406 mm in the northeast alpine foothills and 308 mm in Liguria. At least 30 people died in incidents associated with the October storm. At least 10 people died in Southern France, and there was a similar number of victims in Mallorca.
End of September heavy rains killed at least 8 people in Southern Spain regions of Málaga, Murcia and Almería.
A road in Villalier, France, destroyed by the flood. Reuters
Was 2018 a turning point for the climate?
So how does 2018
compare to previous years? We have seen, and often experience many
exceptional weather events: is this the unequivocal sign that the
climate has changed?
Is there a way to turn back or do we have to
get used to living with colder winters, heatwaves and flooding,
depending on where we live? Is this the worst year so far?
"It was
a bit of a wake-up call," said Professor Sonia Seneviratne, of the ETH
Zurich Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, who in her work
analyses climate extremes.
"In other years there have been extreme
events but maybe what was different this year is that it was really
affecting Europe, the United States" she said.
Dr
Friederike Otto, the acting director of the Environmental Change
Institute at the University of Oxford in Britain, researches extreme
weather events such as droughts, heat waves and heavy rainfall.
WMO map showing the warming in the Arctic, Antarctic and Europe. WMO
“I think in Europe, at least this year has brought home that climate
change is actually something that is happening now and here in our
backyard,” she said.
“We’ve seen that it’s not something that is a concern in the future and for people in developing countries only.”
Last
year was the fourth warmest year on record together with 2015, 2016 and
2017, according to the World Meteorological Organisation.
“It (2018) was another year where the impact of climate change on the climate and the weather was really obvious," Otto said.
Was 2018 an exceptionally unusual year for the climate?
But
was the year unusual, when compared with recent years? Not for Otto,
who also works with the IPCC, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
"It's not unusual given that we are living in a world where climate change exists and already has an impact," she said.
"We
found in our study on the heatwaves in Europe that parts like Dublin,
Denmark and Oslo - it was not such a rare event as it can occur every
seven years. But in the far north, in areas like Finland, it is very
rare. The very high temperature was exceptional even in a climate change
world."
People trying to refresh in Sweden last August. Reuters
"What we have seen in 2018 and in summer especially. Where many
places where we expect heatwaves to happen more, it has actually
happened. It would have felt very extreme if we didn't have climate
change. But given that we are living in a world which is already one
degree warmer than pre-industrial temperatures. It's extreme."
For
senior climate scientist Freja Vamborg of the European Centre for
Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), it's more complicated.
"Well,
it’s very difficult to say. Because if we look at this year, in
general, it has been very warm in all of Europe apart from February and
March," Vamborg said.
"For me what’s more striking is not the
intensity of a single event, or the number of extreme events it’s kind
of the persistent pattern across almost the whole year, that’s the
combination of extreme events, and warmer than average temperatures,"
she said.
The pattern of warmer and dryer conditions in Northern Europe almost during the whole 2018 is striking, according to scientists. Copernicus Climate Change Service
“It has been an extreme year in many ways but it’s difficult to say
has it been more extreme? Certain things have been more extreme like
certain things have been more extreme than we’ve seen before. The
temperatures in Europe are going to be one of the warmest on record if
not the warmest,” Vamborg adds.
Prof Seneviratne agrees that what
makes 2018 especially exceptional is how many weather events took place
at the same time over a widespread area.
While 2018 was not the warmest year, for Seneviratne it was the most extreme.
“In my opinion, it was the most extreme year,” she said.
“We
haven’t had so many extreme events before. It’s a combination of global
warming and additionally some unusual and very persistent weather
patterns.”
Seneviratne says that if these weather patterns existed
under cooler conditions, before global warming, it's possible we would
not have experienced so many extreme weather events in one year.
“Because
we wouldn’t have the background warming. So the occurrence of these
extreme events was the combination of this very strong warming and also
unusual weather patterns.”
California suffered its deadliest and largest forest fires in November.Pierre Markuse/ EU, modified Copernicus Sentinel Data 2018, processed with EO Browser
The year of climate change warnings The United Nations
The United Nations issued an alert in 2018 that the world has 12 years to prevent a climate catastrophe, in a report by the world's leading climate scientists.
The
authors of the landmark report by the UN Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change (IPCC) warned that global warming should be kept to 1.5C
above pre-industrial levels to decrease the risk of drought, floods and
extreme heat.
Prof Seneviratne was one of the lead authors of the IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C.
"At
the moment we continue to have emissions of CO2 in the atmosphere and
other greenhouse gasses which means that we are going to continue to
have additional warming compared to today," she told Euronews.
"Now, the question is whether we can slow it down."
The IPCC, too optimistic?
In December, during the inconclusive COP 24 Climate Conference in Katowice, Poland, three scientists told us that the IPCC report was actually too optimistic,
depicting global warming as a “speeding freight train” in the paper
“Global warming will happen faster than we think”, published in Nature
magazine.
The COP 24 a United Nations climate change conference
and is part of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
(UNFCCC) treaty. The UNFCC is made up of 197 nations and the European
Union.
The article is also critical with the climate-science community for “struggling to offer useful answers”.
The World Meteorological Organisation
The WMO said in its November 2018 report that we are the last generation that can act against climate change.
"We
are not well placed to achieve climate change objectives and stop the
increase in temperature," says Petteri Taalas, secretary general of WMO.
"The
concentrations of greenhouse gases are again at record levels, and, if
the current trend continues, it is possible that the temperature will
increase from 3 to 5°C by the end of the century."
"If we exploit
all known fossil fuel resources, the increase in temperature will be
considerably higher "explains Taalas at the beginning of the report.
"It
is worth repeating once again that we are the first generation that
fully understands climate change and the last generation that can do
something about it," he added.
Are we heading for 3.3ºC global warming?
In December, the independent group Climate Action Tracker, warned that average world temperatures might be heading to 3.3ºC
above the pre-industrial era levels, but also adding that there’s some
hope thanks to the progress made since the Paris Conference when the
world powers engaged to limit the global warming to 2ºC.
Time magazine's Editor Jeffrey Kluger tried to explain in October
why we keep ignoring warnings. He said despite warnings from bodies
such as the IPCC, "the public reaction - again, as always - has been
meh."
Psychologists Kluger interviewed point to our "current
comforts and conveniences" and claim we "discount the risk," if we think
"consequences are far in the future."
The Mediterranean, one of the most affected regions
During the COP 24 a study by the Union for the Mediterranean
organisation warned that climate change will be especially felt in the
Mediterranean region, with warmer temperatures, water scarcity (despite
the Autumn flooding episodes) and droughts expected to affect tourism.
"The region faces unequal distribution of resources, social instability, conflict and migration.
In
addition to these social factors, the Mediterranean Basin is naturally
exposed to a number of hazards, including earthquakes, volcano
eruptions, floods, fires or droughts" it reads.
What is the state of global warming now?
Copernicus Climate Change Service
So how can the weather be explained by climate change?
Otto explains the two mechanisms by which climate change affects the weather.
The
thermodynamic effect is a result of extreme greenhouse gasses in the
atmosphere. This causes higher temperatures and because of the rise,
there is more water vapour in the atmosphere. The vapour turns to liquid
and falls as rain.
The second is the dynamic effect which is
different depending on the season and the place in the world, Otto said.
It is a result of the change in the atmosphere with more greenhouse gas
and water. This affects atmospheric circulation.
"These two together determine how climate change affects weather systems," Otto said.
The
thermal dynamic effect is the same globally. The dynamic effect can
work in the same direction as the thermodynamic effect. It can increase
the risk of extreme rainfall, more low-pressure systems.
But both
effects can also cancel each other out. And to find out what's
happening, scientists dedicate studies to a particular event.
Fight against forest fires in Sweden, last July. Reuters
Otto and her team studied heatwaves in northern Europe this summer
and looked at different locations in that area and found that in some
places, the risk of extreme heat doubled and increased five-fold in
others.
The planet's one-degree rise since pre-industrial times is blamed by experts on a rise in greenhouse gasses.
"We
know that with increased greenhouse gasses in the atmosphere we have
more absorption of long-wave radiation. So with a warmer atmosphere, we
have a higher global mean temperature and higher local temperatures, so
the risk of heat waves increases.
A warmer atmosphere holds more water vapour and the water turns into liquid water and falls out as rain.
Is there any room for hope?
In
October the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) urged
authorities to take “unprecedented measures” to avoid “unthinkable
damage to the climate system”.
The international scientist's team
said that much more needs to be done to keep the global average
temperature below 1.5ºC compared to pre-industrial levels. The threshold
could happen between 2030 and 2052.
CO2
emmisions in real time (Jan 2 2019). The blue color shows a higher
concentration. Provided by earth.nullschool with Copernicus data. earth.nullschool.net
To stay below 1.5°C, the IPCC concludes the world must embark on a
World War II-level effort to transition away from fossil fuels, and also
start removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere at large scales –
anywhere from. To cut carbon pollution as much as possible, as fast as
possible.
The report also details the effects of a 1.5ºC
temperatures rise compared to a 2ºC rise. Keeping the 1.5C target would
keep the global sea level rise 0.1 metres (3.9 inches) lower by 2100
than a 2C target, according to the IPCC.
That could reduce
flooding and give the people that inhabit the world's coasts, islands
and river deltas time to adapt to climate change.
Scientists say a 1.5ºC rise will mean that the climate is kept at a level we can manage and in a way that we have been.
Instead, 2018 marked a new record in carbon emissions.
US President Donald Trump has cast doubt on warnings of the effects of climate change.
IMAGE
Trump accused climate change scientists of having a political agenda and
said he was unconvinced that humans were responsible for rising
temperatures.
And after taking office Trump announced the US withdrawal
from the Paris climate change agreement, in which 187 countries
committed to keeping rising temperatures below 2C above pre-industrial
levels.
He has also recently dismissed a report by his own administration.
During his presidential campaign in 2016 Trump dismissed climate change as "a hoax".
But in a recent interview, he said, "I don't think it's a hoax, I think there's probably a difference."
Other critics claim the climate just goes through cycles naturally and changes over time.
"It's not wrong that climate change goes through cycles naturally," says Otto.
"But
these cycles are usually triggered by changes in the incoming solar
radiation. And we are not in a cycle where we should have very high the
high temperatures," she said.
"And, and at the same time, we also
know, just from very basic physics, that carbon dioxide is a greenhouse
gas, and that it absorbs longwave radiation. And so if yes, people have a
problem with basic physics, then it becomes really difficult to argue."
What can we do?
In November the World Meteorological Organisation came out with the grim reminder that “we are the last generation that can act against climate change”.
It
was the warning of the UN meteorological service’s secretary general
Petteri Taalas when he presented the Provisional Report on the Global
Climate in 2018.
"I think we are definitely the last generation
that can deal with climate change in a way that it is a problem that
will not lead to a huge catastrophe in many parts of the world," Otto
said.
"Because with one degree of what we have already and with
1.5 degrees, the impacts are so that with meaningful adaptations, they
will still be manageable.
"But it's if temperatures rise much, much higher than that, then the impact will obviously also be much stronger" Otto added.
"And
it will be, especially as always - for the vulnerable in every society
it will be very hard to deal with. And so in that sense, we, are the
last generation who can sort of keep it at a level that is manageable
for the society in the way that we know society today."
In October a group of scientists stated once again: The human food system is a major driver of climate change.
They
analysed a number of measures to reduce the environmental effects and
had a clear message to the people, which they published in Nature: They
promoted a shift to a flexitarian diet, where people eat more
vegetables, more nuts and vegetables and less red meat.
Stock
farming or the clearing of entire rainforests for agriculture contribute
direct and indirect to a third of the global greenhouse gas emissions.
They're not alone in coming with this warning.
But investing and finance is another area that is of concern for Otto.
"A
lot of people have pensions," she said. "Demanding pensions funds don’t
invest in carbon-driven industries like oil and gas companies and so
on."
Vamborg says that a positive effect is that climate change awareness is rising all over the world.
But at the same time, the "Gilets Jaunes" protest
started after the French Government tried to implement an environmental
tax for fuels. Protesters say it's unfair to charge consumers when the
transport, shipping industries are very lightly charged for their
massive fuel consumption.
As it is a multifaceted and global
problem, the actions must come from all sectors (industry, consumers,
transports, waste management)... And from everyone, all over the world.
Protesters for a diesel ban in Germany, last February. Reuters
New York Mayor Bill de Blasio led the city in a climate liability suitMayor Bill de Blasio ushered New York City into the climate liability movement in 2018 with a suit against five oil companies. Photo credit: Drew Angerer/Getty Images
Climate liability lawsuits exploded onto the world stage in 2018—a year that began with New York City suing five oil majors and ended with France facing a potential lawsuit for failing to make climate progress and the European Parliament announcing a probe into ExxonMobil’s decades-long climate misinformation campaign.
From litigation to investigations,
the strategies for holding the world’s biggest carbon polluters,
including governments and corporations, accountable for climate damage
are diverse and growing. They include suits to hold fossil fuel
companies responsible for the climate damage done by burning their
products and force them to pay for the costs of those damages. Others
are trying to require governments to strengthen climate policies to
protect their citizens. And new avenues are being opened, including
human rights arguments and even an industry imperiled by climate change
taking on the fossil fuel industry. Together, they are creating optimism
among climate activists that legal channels can make progress in
fighting the climate crisis.
“It’s clear that this is a genie that
neither the governments nor the companies can put back in the bottle at
this point,” said Carroll Muffett, president of the Center for
International Environmental Law.
2018: A Cascade of Climate Cases
The year was marked by a
proliferation of legal action against fossil fuel companies and
governments around the world. “What was remarkable in 2018 was the rapid
acceleration in the number of cases,” Muffett said.
In the U.S., more than a dozen cities
and counties—and one state—have filed lawsuits demanding the fossil
fuel industry help cover the costs of increasingly severe climate
impacts like sea level rise, more intense drought and more damaging
extreme weather.
“Local governments continued to file
suits for damages against fossil fuel companies as well as the first
such suit filed by a state and a similar suit filed by commercial fishermen,”
said Dena Adler, climate law fellow at Columbia Law School’s Sabin
Center for Climate Change Law. “We saw the first dismissals of such
suits in federal court, appeals of those dismissals, and are still
waiting for initial decisions from a number of courts.”
New York City made waves when city
officials announced on Jan. 10 that the city was not only divesting its
public pensions from fossil fuels, but also suing Big Oil. It was the
first municipal climate liability suit to emerge from outside of
California, and it had a ripple effect.
More suits quickly followed from Richmond, Calif.; the city and county of Boulder and San Miguel County, Colo.; King County, Wash.; and Baltimore. Rhode Island also sued fossil fuel companies in July, becoming the first state to do so.
And in November, a West Coast commercial fishing association filed a
climate suit of its own against oil companies, setting up the first
industry vs. industry battle.
These suits are all ongoing. The NYC
case and a suit brought by Oakland and San Francisco ran into early
stumbling blocks as both were dismissed in federal court, but the cities
are appealing. The judge who dismissed Oakland’s and San Francisco’s
cases notably held a climate science tutorial in March that forced the oil companies to acknowledge climate change in a courtroom for the first time.
The state of New York is also suing Exxon
for misleading investors about the business risks of climate change.
The suit was filed by New York Attorney General Barbara Underwood in
October following more than three years of investigating the company.
The suit claims the company defrauded its own investors by overstating
the value of the company’s assets in a carbon-constrained world.
Taking on Governments
Other climate lawsuits instead have
targeted governments for either failing to enact effective policies to
combat climate change or for enabling the continued reliance on fossil
fuels. These suits have emerged around the globe, with a surge in suits
this year in Europe and North America.
The ongoing youth-led climate lawsuit, Juliana v. United States, faced numerous hurdles and ended the year on hold as the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals agreed to consider an extraordinary interlocutory appeal.
That was a significant victory for the Trump administration, which had
been relentlessly trying to have the case thrown out before it could
proceed to trial. The Supreme Court issued a brief stay, then revoked
it, and the Ninth Circuit rejected the government’s four requests for a
writ of mandamus, an extremely rare pre-trial appeal, but its most
recent decision keeps the proceedings on hold.
Meanwhile, youth plaintiffs supported
by Our Children’s Trust, the same legal activist organization steering
the federal case, brought new state-level lawsuits in Washington, Florida and Alaska. State judges dismissed the cases in Alaska and Washington, but both sets of plaintiffs are appealing.
Canada and Latin America also saw
youth bring climate lawsuits in 2018. Recently, the Quebec-based
environmental education group ENvironnement JEUnesse initiated a class-action lawsuit
against the Canadian government on behalf of all Quebec citizens under
35. Earlier, a group of 25 youth plaintiffs supported by the
organization Dejusticia sued the Colombian government claiming it is violating their fundamental rights by allowing deforestation. Colombia’s Supreme Court ruled on April 5 in favor of the youth plaintiffs and ordered the government to implement a plan to halt deforestation in the Colombian Amazon.
Climate litigation may have gained its most significant traction in Europe, thanks to a landmark appeals court ruling
in October holding the Dutch government responsible for cutting
emissions to protect its citizens. That decision, by the Hague Court of
Appeals upheld the initial historic verdict of 2015 in Urgenda Foundation v. The Netherlands
that ordered the government of the Netherlands to live up to its
promise to cut emissions 25 percent by 2020. While the Dutch government
said it remains committed to those promises, it continues to argue in its latest appeal to its Supreme Court that courts should not have the power to enforce those promises.
“It remains to be seen what the Dutch
Supreme Court does with it, but for now it represents the first and so
far only judicial decision that imposes a duty on government, based on
human rights law, to take action to reduce emissions by a specified
amount,” said Vermont Law School Professor Patrick Parenteau, adding
that the October decision of the Dutch Court of Appeals might be the
high point of the year for climate change litigation.
In the wake of Urgenda’s success, other European suits have tried similar approaches.
A group of 10 families from six countries brought a lawsuit dubbed the “People’s Climate Case”
against the European Union in May, arguing the EU’s current target to
reduce carbon emissions 40 percent below 1990 levels by 2030 is not
enough to protect their rights to life, health, occupation, and
property. The case is proceeding as the EU General Court officially accepted the case in August. Germany and France are also facing suits challenging their lack of progress on cutting emissions. Other cases against the governments of Norway and the United Kingdom were dismissed but are being appealed.
Another major development of the past
year was the investigation by the Philippines Commission on Human
Rights into potential human rights violations by 47 fossil fuel
companies for their role in climate change. The commission held hearings around the world in 2018 and will issue a report on its findings by June 2019.
What’s Ahead in 2019: Cases Move to the Merits
Environmental law experts say the
year ahead will bring both key decisions in pending cases and will bring
important evidence to the public. “That’s going to be the real sea
change in this work in 2019,” Muffett said. “The findings from the
Philippines are going to come out, and more of these cases are going to
move from the procedural battles to actually engaging on the merits.”
The Juliana v. United States
plaintiffs are hoping their case finally goes to trial in 2019. “My
government has refused to be accountable to future generations and has
actively tried to evade this lawsuit for three years,” said 19-year-old
plaintiff Vic Barrett. “The country that prides itself in its freedom,
bravery, and strength has been running away from a group of young people
armed with the truth.”
Whether this case sees the courtroom will be the first big decision to watch for in 2019, Parenteau said.
The liability suits targeting fossil
fuel companies are also in a procedural battle that should be decided in
the coming months. The Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals will decide in a
consolidated set of California municipal cases whether federal or state
courts are the proper venue for the issue. “There’s at least a 50-50
chance those cases will get sent back to state court for what promises
to be the real trial of the century in terms of the evidence that will
be adduced, the legal talent that will be on display, and the amount of
money at stake,” Parenteau said.
The communities are fighting to have
these cases decided by state courts using state law, widely considered a
more likely route to success. That’s because federal court have
traditionally ruled that the executive and legislative branches of
government are responsible for climate policy—as they did in dismissing
the suits by New York, San Francisco and Oakland—and that remedies
should be sought through the Environmental Protection Agency. If the
California suits stay in California courts, That decision, Adler said,
it will impact other carry sway in whether more communities considering
file similar suits.
One case scheduled to go to trial in
2019 is the investor fraud case against Exxon, slated to begin on
October 23. It is a high-profile case that could garner a lot of
attention. It’s based on New York’s Martin Act, which gives the state
unusual power to hold companies accountable for securities fraud, but
experts say it will reverberate beyond that state.
“It has relevance to the core element
in all of the public nuisance cases re: what the oil companies knew and
what they did to deceive the public and stymie efforts to mitigate the
harm,” Parenteau said.
Muffett agreed, saying “Lots of
evidence will go into the record leading up to that trial. I think
that’s going to ripple across jurisdictions here in the U.S. and around
the world.”
Muffett said that while the New York
case rests on claims that Exxon misled investors, another attorney
general-led case from Massachusetts is looking into whether Exxon also
misled consumers. An appeal is currently before the Supreme Court as Exxon has failed to have it dismissed in Massachusetts state courts.
“If the Massachusetts investigation
moves forward, then we’re no longer talking about how Exxon misled
investors,” Muffett said. “We’re going to start seeing documents about
how Exxon misled consumers and the public. That is a much wider audience
and a much vaster universe of victims and of potential plaintiffs. I
think that case is really one to watch closely.”
The Global Outlook
Internationally, several cases have
the potential to create momentum in the liability movement. A case
involving a Peruvian farmer suing a German electric utility
company over its greenhouse gas emissions is proceeding into the
evidentiary phase after an appeals court accepted the farmer’s claim.
That case is unique in that it considers climate impacts far from the
source of the emissions, and the German court agreeing to hear it was a
significant development in the field.
In Ireland, citizens supported by the
organization Friends of the Irish Environment will see their lawsuit
against the Irish government proceed to court for a full hearing
starting Jan. 22. Parenteau, who has spent the past semester on a
Fulbright fellowship at Ireland’s University College Cork, said Irish
legal experts believe the case faces steep odds of succeeding in
ordering the government to take specific action. “Something good could
come of it,” he said. “Ireland is the first nation to enact a law
requiring fossil fuel divestment. But it is way off target on emissions
reductions … and is due to see significant rise in CO2 unless serious
steps are taken.”
Another hearing that will generate
much attention will be the European Parliament’s look into the alleged
climate misinformation campaign staged by Exxon and other fossil fuel
companies. That brings the American-style liability campaign to a new
continent and a significant parliamentary body.
2019 could also see the first lawsuit
filed by nations most vulnerable to climate change against large
carbon-emitting nations and/or against fossil fuel companies. The
Pacific island nation of Vanuatu is asking other small island states to join it in a climate liability lawsuit.
“I think that speaks to both the sense of urgency and to the growing
diversity that we’re seeing in this litigation,” Muffett said.
Overall, the next year will likely be
filled with new developments in climate liability litigation and
investigations. Big decisions will be made and new suits may be filed.
According to Parenteau, the outbreak
of climate lawsuits that characterized 2018 and will likely continue in
2019 is not at all surprising. “Of course the defendants should have
seen it coming. Many did and have been girding for the long battle to
come in court, in Congress, in elections and referenda, and of course in
the media,” he said. “The battle for Planet Earth is well underway and
the outcome is very much in doubt.”
