05/01/2019

The 18 Tourist Hotspots That Could Be Lost Forever Due To Climate Change

Fairfax - Penny Walker

      Tourists looking out over panorama view of old town Dubrovnik. Photo: Shutterstock
There are dozens of sites that are popular with tourists across the world that are at risk. Here are just a handful of them.

London
Photo: Shutterstock
When the Thames Barrier was first used in 1984, it was predicted that it would only be called upon two or three times a year. Today, we use it around six to seven times a year, meaning that usage has almost tripled in just 35 years. While London is fairly far inland, it doesn't sit too far from the river mouth making it sensitive to tidal fluctuations.

Venice, Italy
Photo: ALASTAIR MILLER
Probably the most obvious on the list, we already regularly see images of people using elevated planks to cross St Mark's Square in the winter months. There are genuine concerns that the city may not be around for too much longer. Venice's buildings have been sinking – albeit very slowly – into the Adriatic and rising sea levels will only make things worse.
The situation is so bad that Venice features on the World Monuments Fund (WMF) list of places under threat. According to the WMF, cruise ships are only speeding up the process: "The large cruise ships have had direct and indirect impacts on flooding."

Maldives
Inevitably, small islands are some of the most at-risk areas when it comes to rising sea levels. Throw in the fact that the Maldives is the world's lowest lying nation (on average the islands are only 1.3 meters above sea level) and you have a recipe for disaster. Should waters rise as much as three feet, it would submerge the 1,200 islands enough to make them uninhabitable.

Tropical islands
The Maldives is not alone in potentially being lost to the sea. There are plenty of islands around the world that are destined to share a similar fate. Projections include the loss of the Seychelles, low-lying islands in the Solomons and Micronesia, Kiribati – about halfway between Hawaii and Australia –the islands of the Torres Strait off the north coast of Australia, Palau in the Philippines, the Carteret Islands in the south-west Pacific Ocean and Tuvalu, as well as many more.

Magdalen Islands, Canada
Photo: Mathieu Dupuis
It's not just tropical islands that are under threat. Sitting in the Gulf of St Lawrence in Quebec, the Magdalen Islands' sandstone cliffs are susceptible to erosion. As the Earth warms, the wall of sea ice that protects the archipelago from the blustering winds and sea spray is melting rapidly. With this last line of defence gone, it is likely that the islands will erode even more quickly than their current rate of loss – a massive 40 inches a year.

The North Pole
All this water has to be coming from somewhere, and much of it is coming from the vast glaciers and icebergs of the Arctic and Antarctic. The ice caps are melting so quickly in fact that it's believed that in just a few generation's time, true magnetic north will no longer be found on a chunk of sea ice, but above water. There will be no more standing on the North Pole.

Polar bear spotting in the Arctic
Photo: AP
The melting of the ice caps is also threatening the polar bear's habitat and way of life. These strong carnivores use the ice to hunt seals and burn through a whopping 12,325 calories a day. They are completely dependent on being able hunt seals on firm ground. As the ice reduces, so do the hunting grounds, leading to increasing reports of polar bears dying of starvation.

Key West, Florida
Even before hurricane Irma hit the tailend of Florida back in 2017, Key West was having problems with the environment. Rising seas and warnings by the Army Corps of Engineers has encouraged the small city to take drastic measures. They have invested one million dollars into elevating their roads before they too become a permanent underwater attraction.

Miami, Florida
Celebrity Edge cruise ship arrives in Miami.
More than one of Florida's cities are under threat. King tides are already surging over coastal defences to send water a couple of feet high surging down Miami's streets – and the future is bleak. In fact, if the Earth's temperature rises by as much as four degrees, 93 per cent of the city's residents could find themselves displaced. Fort Lauderdale to the north and the equally popular Everglades National Park to the west are also at risk.

Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
The Ho Chi Minh City skyline and Saigon River. Photo: Shutterstock
Set on the Saigon River, Ho Chi Minh City is more susceptible to rising sea levels than other major tourist destinations according to research. With just a 1.5 degree increase in temperature (billed as the 'best case scenario'), the city will suffer one of the greatest sea level rises out of all the world's major cities at 3.1 metres. This could see historic landmarks flooded and 29 per cent of the population affected.

Bangladesh
Much like Venice, the plight of Bangladesh is not a new one. The country already experiences floods that cover around a quarter of its landmass every year and this only predicted to worsen with time. Citizens here are already learning to adapt their way of life to combat the change in their environment, with farmers using rafts to transfer produce and agriculture when the waters rise.

Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
Photo: Shutterstock
The popular Brazilian city has been cited as one of the biggest losers of rising sea levels. It has been speculated that should warming continue at its current rate, the waters around the city could rise up to 32 inches by 2100. Its popular beaches could be gone, along with its airport. Fortunately, Christ the Redeemer is high enough to escape the rising tide.

Alexandria, Egypt
Once the home of the most extensive library on Earth, today it's not just the loss of knowledge that Alexandria laments, but the possibility that more of its history will be swallowed by water. The city's beaches could be submerged with as little as half a metre rise in sea levels and as many as eight million people displaced. Coastal flooding could also affect the Nile Delta and the towns and villages along its banks.

Pompeii, Italy
Photo: Shutterstock
The residents of this Italian city once faced one of the worst natural disasters in human history. Now it is under threat from the sea. Dr Lena Reimann, of the coastal risks and sea level research group at Keil recently said that: ""Pompeii is at low to moderate risk from coastal erosion and erosion risk may increase by up to 16 per cent under the high-end sea-level rise scenarios until 2100".

Ancient Mediterranean sites
Tourists at a viewpoint on Srd hill looking at Dubrovnik panorama in Dubrovnik, Croatia. Photo: Shutterstock
It's not just Pompeii that is under threat in the Mediterranean. The Patriarchal Basilica of Aquileia in Italy is also at risk as storm surges threaten the 5th Century city, much of which has not yet been excavated. Increasing water levels also threaten Herculaneum, Istanbul and Dubrovnik, as well as the kasbah at Algiers, the Medieval city of Rhodes and the archaeological site of Carthage.

Osaka, Japan
Photo: SHUTTERSTOCK
According to new data, the high risk level posed to Osaka could affect as many as 5.2 million people. Like much of the rest of the country, the city employs the use of seawalls to protect its shore. But there is only so long that this can work. The thriving Japanese city could soon be lost to the sea.

Bangkok, Thailand
Photo: Shutterstock
Asian cities really have drawn a bad hand here, with many of them likely to be significantly affected by rising sea levels. Even if the Earth warms towards the more conservative end of projections – around two degrees by 2100 – 42 per cent of this hugely popular tourist destination's inhabitants will be displaced with waters projected to rise by 4.9 metres, flooding much of Bangkok.

Amsterdam, Netherlands
Houseboats in Amsterdam, the Netherlands. Photo: Shutterstock
Things aren't looking good for the popular European city considering that parts of it are already four metres below sea level. While the Netherlands' capital isn't too worried just yet thanks to its series of innovative dykes and dams, research shows that should the Earth's temperature warm by four degrees, the sea level around Amsterdam could rise by a whopping 7.6 metres, potentially displacing as much as 98 per cent of the city's population.

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How Climate Change Caused The World’s First Ever Empire To Collapse

The Conversation

King Naram-Sin of Akkad, grandson of Sargon, leading his army to victory. Rama / Louvre, CC BY-SA
Gol-e-Zard Cave lies in the shadow of Mount Damavand, which at more than 5,000 metres dominates the landscape of northern Iran. In this cave, stalagmites and stalactites are growing slowly over millennia and preserve in them clues about past climate events. Changes in stalagmite chemistry from this cave have now linked the collapse of the Akkadian Empire to climate changes more than 4,000 years ago.
Akkadia was the world’s first empire. It was established in Mesopotamia around 4,300 years ago after its ruler, Sargon of Akkad, united a series of independent city states. Akkadian influence spanned along the Tigris and Euphrates rivers from what is now southern Iraq, through to Syria and Turkey. The north-south extent of the empire meant that it covered regions with different climates, ranging from fertile lands in the north which were highly dependent on rainfall (one of Asia’s “bread baskets”), to the irrigation-fed alluvial plains to the south.
The Akkad empire during the reign of Narâm-Sîn (2254-2218 BC). Mount Damavand is labelled in blue. Zunkir / Semhir / wiki, CC BY-SA
 It appears that the empire became increasingly dependent on the productivity of the northern lands and used the grains sourced from this region to feed the army and redistribute the food supplies to key supporters. Then, about a century after its formation, the Akkadian Empire suddenly collapsed, followed by mass migration and conflicts. The anguish of the era is perfectly captured in the ancient Curse of Akkad text, which describes a period of turmoil with water and food shortages:
… the large arable tracts yielded no grain, the inundated fields yielded no fish, the irrigated orchards yielded no syrup or wine, the thick clouds did not rain.
Drought and dust
Sargon of Akkad – or maybe his son, Naram-Sin. Iraqi Directorate General of Antiquities / wiki
The reason for this collapse is still debated by historians, archaeologists and scientists. One of the most prominent views, championed by Yale archaeologist Harvey Weiss (who built on earlier ideas by Ellsworth Huntington), is that it was caused by an abrupt onset of drought conditions which severely affected the productive northern regions of the empire.
Weiss and his colleagues discovered evidence in northern Syria that this once prosperous region was suddenly abandoned around 4,200 years ago, as indicated by a lack of pottery and other archaeological remains. Instead, the rich soils of earlier periods were replaced by large amounts of wind-blown dust and sand, suggesting the onset of drought conditions. Subsequently, marine cores from the Gulf of Oman and the Red Sea which linked the input of dust into the sea to distant sources in Mesopotamia, provided further evidence of a regional drought at the time.
Many other researchers viewed Weiss’s interpretation with scepticism, however. Some argued, for example, that the archaeological and marine evidence was not accurate enough to demonstrate a robust correlation between drought and societal change in Mesopotamia.

A new detailed climate record
Now, stalagmite data from Iran sheds new light on the controversy. In a study published in the journal PNAS, led by Oxford palaeoclimatologist Stacy Carolin, colleagues and I provide a very well dated and high resolution record of dust activity between 5,200 and 3,700 years ago. And cave dust from Iran can tell us a surprising amount about climate history elsewhere.
Gol-e-Zard Cave might be several hundred miles to the east of the former Akkadian Empire, but it is directly downwind. As a result, around 90% of the region’s dust originates in the deserts of Syria and Iraq.
Mount Damavand is a ‘potentially active’ volcano, and the highest peak in Iran. Gol-e-Zard Cave is nearby. Vasile Ersek, Author provided
That desert dust has a higher concentration of magnesium than the local limestone which forms most of Gol-e-Zard’s stalagmites (the ones which grow upwards from the cave floor). Therefore, the amount of magnesium in the Gol-e-Zard stalagmites can be used as an indicator of dustiness at the surface, with higher magnesium concentrations indicating dustier periods, and by extension drier conditions.
The stalagmites have the additional advantage that they can be dated very precisely using uranium-thorium chronology. Combining these methods, our new study provides a detailed history of dustiness in the area, and identifies two major drought periods which started 4,510 and 4,260 years ago, and lasted 110 and 290 years respectively. The latter event occurs precisely at the time of the Akkadian Empire’s collapse and provides a strong argument that climate change was at least in part responsible.
The collapse was followed by mass migration from north to south which was met with resistance by the local populations. A 180km wall – the “Repeller of the Amorites” – was even built between the Tigris and Euphrates in an effort to control immigration, not unlike some strategies proposed today. The stories of abrupt climate change in the Middle East therefore echo over millennia to the present day.

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How Your Brain Stops You From Taking Climate Change Seriously

PBS NewsHour

Local school children join Greta Thunberg's initiative on climate strike during the COP24 UN Climate Change Conference 2018 in Katowice, Poland December 14, 2018. Photo by Agencja Gazeta/Grzegorz Celejewski via REUTERS
Action on climate change has been stymied by politics, lobbying by energy companies and the natural pace of scientific research — but one of the most significant barriers is our own minds.
Think about how every town seems to have a traffic intersection that’s needlessly dangerous. No matter how many times you think to yourself, “They should really put in a stoplight here,” you don’t call the proper authorities. (You’re already late for work, and it feels like someone else’s problem to solve.)
Our mental responses to global warming and climate change follow a similar script. What needs to be done is clear enough — stop greenhouse gases from occupying the atmosphere — and yet progress moves at a snail’s pace. Three decades passed between the first report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and the international community’s pledge for action through the Paris climate accords.
Part of the reason it takes us so long to act is because the human brain has spent nearly 200,000 years focused on the present.
It took another two years for these governments to decide — at the COP24 conference in Poland — on how to keep each other accountable. And keep in mind, the Paris agreement still carries no legal powers of enforcement.
Part of the reason it takes us so long to act is because the human brain has spent nearly 200,000 years focused on the present. “Find food. Make shelter. Mate!” We only began to contemplate time, and by extension the future, within the last few hundred years.
Making the future tangible is only one of the psychological barriers that have made climate change into an elusive problem that now must be tackled in the next 12 years to limit devastation.
Our minds — regardless of one’s political or socioeconomic status — are constantly looking for ways to tell ourselves that business as usual is OK. News of disappearing glaciers fails to inspire serious change because of this cognitive shield — indeed certain efforts to educate only harden partisanship on the issue.
But it’s still possible to train your brain to get over these hurdles. Here’s how.

Apathy and discounting (why news stories about polar bears don’t inspire action)
Overcoming these hurdles relies on the careful intersection of three key dimensions — almost like trying a Rubik’s Cube, said Robert Gifford, an environmental psychologist at the University of Victoria in British Columbia.
The first dimension centers on finding the best way to change a person’s behaviors toward the environment.
To do that, you need to tap into another dimension: a person’s demographics — how much money they make or where they live.
A polar bear outside Churchill, Manitoba, which is located on the animals’ annual migration route. Photo by Tim Auer/Polar Bears International
Finally, there are what Gifford calls “dragons of inaction” — the specific cognitive barriers that dominate someone’s view of climate change.
“The perception of not having control over the situation is certainly one of the biggest” barriers, Gifford said.
Whenever the NewsHour covers climate change, the most common responses we get from those who don’t believe that humans influence climate change point to the ice ages. They cite how the Earth has experienced natural cycles, between extreme cold and heat, for millennia.
These beliefs are known as nature-benign worldviews, because they suggest the planet is impervious to carbon pollution or any activity performed by Earth’s creatures — even it is done by billions of them, repeatedly in developed countries, for more than a century.
No one wants to believe their daily activities are responsible for a global disaster that has already turned millions of people into climate refugees and killed scores of others.
Research shows some deniers may espouse these opinions because they have a personal stake — whether it’s stock investments in fossil fuel companies or they simply enjoy a drive in their gas-powered car.
“But these people are honestly ignoring the fact that the temperature is rising at a rate beyond anything that anybody’s seen for thousands of years,” Gifford said. “It’s pretty clear that it’s not a natural cycle.”
Cognitive dissonance, the mental discomfort created by holding more than one conflicting belief at once, plays a part in these dismissals too, Gifford said.
No one wants to believe their daily activities — from switching on a light to checking your phone to washing your hair to going to work — are responsible for a global disaster that has already turned millions of people into climate refugees and killed scores of others.
So people change their minds about the issue rather than changing their habits because it’s an easier way to cope, Gifford said.
Gifford’s lab has found this cognitive tension runs alongside another barrier known as discounting, wherein people undervalue climate change because its hazards don’t feel immediate or nearby. When they surveyed 3,200 people across 18 nations, they found a majority — those from 15 countries — believed incorrectly that climate change wasn’t a local problem.
Spatial discounting helps explain why people maintain the status quo — or become more polarized — even if their news feeds are swamped by viral stories of giant icebergs breaking off Antarctica, or polar bears swimming until they drown.
If the message lacks personal or local relevance, research shows that people will be less engaged.

Ignorance (why people don’t know how to live environmentally)
Another of these “dragons of inaction” is ignorance — not in a negative sense, but rather a lack of information. People often recognize that climate change is bad but don’t know quite what to do about it in their own lives.
Washing clothes in cold water can save up to 15 pounds of carbon emissions per load.
For instance, even if many people know that the average American emits about 17 tons of carbon every year, they don’t realize half of those emissions could be eliminated with simple fixes.
“The average house has air leakage equivalent to a small window being open all year round,” said Richard Heede, co-founder and co-director of the Climate Accountability Institute. “If people can caulk these leaky areas, it would help reduce cold infiltration and lower heating bills.”
Heating and cooling account for 53 percent of household emissions, which can be cut by switching to energy-efficient appliances or brushing your teeth with cold instead of hot water.
“Lower the water heater temperature from the normal preset of 140 degrees Fahrenheit to 120,” Heede said. “That’s easy enough, and it prevents scalding by friends and visitors.”
Washing clothes in cold water can save up to 15 pounds of carbon emissions per load, depending on your washing machine and your energy supplier.
You can check your home’s carbon footprint and ways to shrink it with this tool or this one.

Awareness (why so few are driving electric cars)
Experts view the abandonment of gas-burning vehicles as essential to meeting climate goals. In 2014, nearly a quarter of the world’s carbon dioxide emissions were created by transportation, a sector that accounts for 70 percent of U.S. petroleum consumption, most of which — 99 percent — is used by cars, trucks and airplanes. In the U.S., transportation is the biggest source of greenhouse gas emissions.
How you can make a
difference with climate change
A battery charger sign for electric cars is painted on the ground of a parking ground near the soccer stadium in Wolfsburg, Germany, April 6, 2016. Photo by REUTERS/Kai Pfaffenbach

Here are some steps — both tangible and psychological — you can take on your own:
  • Caulk air leaks around doors and windows in your house 
  • Swap out older appliances and light bulbs for more energy-efficient models 
  • Brush your teeth (and wash your clothes) with cold water 
  • Lower your water heater to 120 degrees Fahrenheit 
  • Trade your conventional vehicle for a plug-in hybrid 
  • If you want to encourage others to make changes, talk about local or personal ways it affects you and your community 
  • Start thinking about your green identity, the parts of your lifestyle dedicated to climate change and its effects 
  • Vote with your wallet 
  • You can be a hero (just keep telling yourself that
Yet even though every major automaker produces electric or hybrid models, most lack mainstream brand recognition. Car dealerships — even in California, which leads the nation in electric cars — express an annoyance toward selling green vehicles.
Go ahead, name an electric car brand. Let me guess: You said Tesla.
Consumers in Canada and the U.S. are “aware that electric vehicles exist as a thing, but don’t understand anything beyond that,” said Jonn Axsen, who directs the Sustainable Transportation Action Research Team at Simon Fraser University. “We find this repeatedly in our in our survey work.”
When his lab examined a survey of 1,700 new car buyers in Canada, they learned only 18 percent knew of a nearby electric car charging station. A second study found a mere 22 percent reported being familiar with how plug-in cars work. Buyers said these things dissuaded them from purchasing electric vehicles.
But in what might be the biggest misconception about the transition to electric vehicles, many respondents assumed that they need abundant access to charging stations before they can invest in an electric car to help the climate, Axsen said.
That’s because most folks are confused about the difference between plug-in hybrid vehicles, which can be plugged in or use gasoline, and pure electric vehicles, Axsen said. “While niche groups of enthusiasts want to go pure electric, that’s proven to be a small share of the market.”
Once a town or community becomes aware of plug-in hybrids and how they operate, Axsen’s group found, there is far more — about 75 percent — expressed demand for that type of vehicle. Consumers can charge them at home for daily city commutes, but still go on unplanned road trips with the gasoline engine.
Contrary to concerns about how far you can drive, “your range is even longer than a conventional vehicle because you have both the battery and the inefficient gasoline engine to work with,” Axsen said.
On the long road to decarbonizing vehicles, the IPCC views hybrid vehicles as “instrumental,” given that transportation emission must drop by 15 to 30 percent in the coming decades to stop the calamity of 1.5 degrees Celsius of warming.

Delusions and procrastination (why politicians are taking so long to act)
Washington, D.C., the city proper, is the definition of a liberal stronghold. The District has elected a Democrat in every mayoral race since 1961 and has never voted in favor of a Republican president in its history. The nation’s capital is also a car city, with more than 310,000 registered vehicles. That’s about 5,000 vehicles per square mile, which rivals megacities like New York (7,200); it’s three times as congested as Los Angeles (1,700).
Even after politicians become convinced that climate change matters, they set ineffective policy goals to reduce greenhouse gas emissions — a basic premise that scholars have noticed for decades.
Despite its liberal core, only 1 percent of new vehicles on D.C. streets were electric in 2016, a lower percentage than in Detroit and Salt Lake City. Its total fleet of electric vehicles falls outside the top-10 for U.S. cities.
So how can a government like D.C.’s, which often touts its leadership on energy efficiency, not take steps to boost the city’s supply of electric vehicles?
One of Axsen’s colleague’s at Simon Fraser University — Mark Jaggard — says it happens because policymakers are deluding themselves.
Even after politicians become convinced that climate change matters, they set ineffective policy goals to reduce greenhouse gas emissions — a basic premise that Axsen said other scholars have noticed for decades.
“Time after time, [lawmakers] either put in no effective policies or very few effective policies — where there is no evidence that those policies will get anywhere near their targets,” Axsen said. “It has been happening for decades, and it is everywhere.”
He cites the slow national adoption of the zero-emission vehicle mandate as the starkest example. This policy, which was first implemented in California in 1990, requires automakers to ensure that a certain number of electric vehicles are on the road.
“The beauty, at least from a public policy perspective, is that it puts the onus on automakers,” Axsen said. “When carmakers are required to make, develop, market and sell electric vehicles, then they will channel their resources into doing that,” and it has a snowball effect.
Zero-emission vehicle programs could nearly eliminate petroleum use in passenger vehicles by 2050 in the U.S., yet only nine states have followed California’s lead in 30 years. Photo by REUTERS/Lucy Nicholson
It usually goes like this: Automakers begin swapping subsidies, which lower prices for consumers. These backroom deals also reduce the number of government-funded incentives — tax credits — needed to promote electric vehicle adoption. Such incentives can become prohibitively expensive for a city and its citizens as the market grows.
More money going into research and development to bring the cost down for batteries eventually means “a wider range of makes and models of electric vehicles and more marketing efforts in order to make people aware of the different vehicles,” Axsen said.
Research shows that the zero-emission vehicle programs could nearly eliminate petroleum use in passenger vehicles by 2050 in the U.S., yet only nine states have followed California’s lead in 30 years. Automakers and their lobbyists argue that the mandate places too high a burden on vehicle manufacturers. D.C.’s landmark climate bill, which would transition the city to 100 percent renewable energy, does not include a plan for reaching zero emissions from vehicles.
The political reluctance around the zero-emission vehicle mandate mirrors what happened with solar energy, which only ballooned in the last decade thanks in part to government support.
Carbon capture and storage technology, which sucks carbon dioxide out of the sky, has also faced a slow rollout.
As of 2018, there are 18 large-scale carbon capture facilities operating in the world, up from a tally of 17 the year before.
Akshat Rathi, who has thoroughly covered this issue for Quartz, reports that the world needs at least 200 of these facilities by 2025 to hit zero emissions. Meanwhile, there are 500 coal plants currently under construction worldwide, and another 1,000 planned for the near future.
Based on every climate scenario studied by the IPCC, the Earth cannot stop the coming devastation wrought by global warming without carbon capture and storage; the global dearth of carbon capture continues to threaten the Paris accords emissions targets for 2030.

Internal motivation (why you can still make a difference)
Every expert interviewed for this story said that if people want to stop this slow, collective demise by a thousand political half-steps, the best weapon is you.
Consumers have a lot of power to adjust their spending habits, what they invest then and what their concerns are. We vote with our dollars.
People tend to mold their behaviors around what they already favor. If you favor patriotism, you’ll attend parades. If you favor the outdoors, you’ll go camping or hunting.
So how we internally frame our discussions about climate change is one of the keys to motivating action, Gifford said. (Alternatively, if you give people outside incentives to do the right thing environmentally, the behavior stops pretty much when the incentive stops.)
“The goal is trying to get people to have a green identity, an intrinsic motivation instead of an extrinsic motivation,” Gifford said.
One way to shape environmental attitudes is to explain how climate change will directly affect a person’s lifestyle, such as by threatening national security or national parks, he said.
“Another messaging strategy that works across the board is not telling people that they’re going to have to sacrifice,” Gifford said. “Research shows that pro-environment messages stick best when you tell people that they can be a hero by helping others.”
Public pressure led to a $6 trillion in divestment from fossil fuels. Photo by REUTERS/Simon Dawson
Heede echoed this sentiment, pointing to massive efforts by investors toward green energy. One student-inspired campaign has pledged to divest $6 trillion from fossil fuels since 2011, and global investments in clean energy have exceeded $200 billion for the last eight years.
Heede said this investor pressure has led most oil and gas companies to pledge reductions in carbon emissions — at least with their field operations. Shell has even developed a global plan for reaching zero emissions, though it calls on increases in coal, natural gas and oil for decades.
Grassroots efforts have also spawned political pressure and movements like the Green New Deal in the House of Representatives.
“Increasingly shareholders are more activist with respect to climate,” Heede said. But you don’t have to be a millionaire to make a difference. “Consumers have a lot of power to adjust their spending habits, what they invest then and what their concerns are. We vote with our dollars.”

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Brazil Was A Global Leader On Climate Change. Now It’s A Threat.

Foreign Policy -  | 

Jair Bolsonaro’s government could roll back decades of progress on clean energy and reducing deforestation.
A view of an 800-hectare solar farm in Pirapora, Minas Gerais state, Brazil, on Nov. 9, 2017. (Carl de Souza/AFP/Getty Images)
This coming November, delegates from nearly every country had been scheduled to gather in Brazil to discuss climate change at the 25th United Nations Conference of the Parties. When the meeting was planned, Brazil seemed a logical choice to host it. Not anymore.
Brazil depends more on renewable energy sources (including biofuels) than any of the world’s other large energy consumers. And between 2005 and 2012, it also ran a successful campaign to reduce deforestation by about 80 percent. But the election of Jair Bolsonaro as Brazil’s president has thrown the country’s status as an environmental beacon into doubt.
In November 2018, Brazil withdrew its offer to host the climate conference, citing the government transition process and budgetary constraints. Bolsonaro, who took office Jan. 1, clearly believes that economic development is at odds with environmental protection and that considerations about the planet should not be allowed to inhibit industry, particularly Brazil’s huge agricultural sector. During the campaign Bolsonaro earned the support of Brazil’s agribusiness lobby, the ruralistas, which make up one of the country’s most powerful congressional blocs. While corporate campaign donations are illegal in Brazil, many wealthy ruralistas are able to self-fund their campaigns and get elected; as a result, they have become a powerful force in Congress, and Bolsonaro needs their backing.
The newly inaugurated president has grumbled that environmental policy is “suffocating” the economy. He has threatened to withdraw Brazil from the Paris agreement on climate change (although he recanted after an international backlash). His environment minister, Ricardo Salles, is a former legal director of the Brazilian Rural Society, an agricultural group, and was fined this past December for changing plans for an environmentally protected area to benefit businesses in the state of São Paulo when he was head of an environmental agency there. Bolsonaro has also promised to remove some protections for the Amazon rainforest, including by rolling back indigenous reserves, such as Raposa Serra do Sol—he has advocated for agriculture and mining exploration there and said the area is too large for its inhabitants. In one of his first acts as president he shifted the power to regulate and create indigenous reserves—which account for about 13 percent of Brazil’s territory, including vast swaths of rainforest—from the National Indian Foundation agency to the agriculture ministry. On the plus side, Bolsonaro does advocate expanding wind and solar energy and reducing dependence on coal and oil for power generation, but he has offered few details on how he plans to do so. He also supports ethanol incentives, popular with Brazil’s sugar cane lobby, but has expressed no plans to support other forms of clean transport.
Brazil already has one of the cleanest electricity portfolios in the world.
Throughout 2018, about 65 percent of its electricity supply came from large hydropower projects, and more than 15 percent came from wind, solar, and biomass. Interest in large-scale hydropower development is waning, as most remaining potential projects are located in environmentally sensitive or indigenous areas. Meanwhile, auctions for wind and solar projects have generated bids to produce renewable power at some of the lowest prices in the world and attracted $6 billion of investment in 2017.
Even if large-scale hydropower development has reached a point of diminishing returns, there is still progress to be made on other renewable sources. For now, wind power accounts for nearly 8 percent of electricity supply. Solar makes up just 0.5 percent but is growing at an impressive clip. Bolsonaro’s campaign website proposed speeding up environmental licensing for small-scale hydroelectric plants and developing a local industry to produce, install, and maintain solar panels in the country’s impoverished northeast, which is home to abundant solar and wind resources. However, the new president himself has scarcely addressed the issue in public remarks, and it’s unclear that renewable energy will be a priority for his government.
Meanwhile, as the largest car market in Latin America—it accounts for over half the region’s vehicle sales—Brazil also needs to build on advances in reducing transport sector emissions. It is already the world’s second-largest biofuels producer, and it has the largest market of flex-fuel vehicles, which can run on pure ethanol. The RenovaBio program, launched by the government in 2017, aims to reduce the carbon intensity of gasoline by 10 percent by 2028. The program will do this by introducing carbon savings credits that incentivize fuel distributors to blend their products with more biofuels. The aim is to gradually increase the share of biofuels in Brazil’s total fuel supply from 20 percent to nearly 30 percent. Since the election last October, Bolsonaro has expressed his support for Brazil’s biofuels sector, a stance consistent with his close ties to agricultural interests.
Thus biofuels are one point where agricultural and environmental interests converge, a political opportunity that Bolsonaro could seize.
The country also has a nascent but promising electric vehicles market. Electric vehicles improve local air quality and, when charged with renewable electricity, produce zero emissions—something biofuel cars cannot achieve. São Paulo and nearby Campinas have been regional leaders in launching public fleets of electric buses, which are estimated to be less expensive over their lifetime than conventional buses because of lower fuel and maintenance costs. There is potential for a new local industry, too. For now, few electric vehicles are made in Brazil. But in 2015, the Chinese car and bus manufacturer BYD opened its first Latin American factory in Campinas to make buses, and the company is expected to begin manufacturing electric vehicle battery cells in Amazonas state using locally sourced lithium by the end of the year. This development demonstrates how promoting clean transport policies can also create jobs and boost economic development, something that may well appeal to Bolsonaro.
But the most important contribution Brazil can make to global climate health is reducing deforestation.
Under the Paris climate agreement, Brazil committed to eliminating illegal deforestation in the Amazon and reforesting 12 million hectares by 2030. The country’s efforts in this respect matter on a global scale: The Amazon is estimated to contain 10 percent of the world’s biomass, absorbing and storing massive amounts of atmospheric carbon dioxide. In 2015, 46 percent of Brazil’s greenhouse gas emissions resulted from land use change, such as deforestation and increase in croplands, and the huge decline in Brazil’s emissions between 2005 and 2012 owed mostly to a reduction in deforestation. This suggests that progress is possible, but the rise in deforestation since 2012 means Brazil has to do more. Unfortunately, Bolsonaro has actively undermined forest protection efforts, foreshadowing dire results.
Policies to promote renewable power, clean transport, and conservation have made Brazil a global climate role model in recent decades, but Bolsonaro represents a serious threat to this progress and could lead to the tragic loss of a major world economy from the coalition fighting climate change.
Between now and 2027, the country’s power capacity is projected to grow by more than 30 percent, and renewables will account for only 71 percent of this growth. In other words, clean energy will not even keep pace with demand, much less increase as a share of power in the energy mix. Electricity regulators must oversee the upgrading of the grid to integrate more intermittent renewable energy sources like wind and solar and increase incentives for small-scale generation, such as rooftop solar panels. Tax exemptions, currently offered for solar panels and the like in more than 20 states, should be expanded.
In the transport sector, the expansion of biofuels should not come through clearing protected land for sugar cane production, but rather through land productivity gains, for example through more efficient and sustainable use of fertilizer. And although electric car battery prices continue to fall, the price of electric cars is still prohibitive for most Brazilians. New incentives (and an end to fuel subsidies, which, unfortunately, has proven highly unpopular in the very recent past) will be required to encourage their uptake.
Finally, Brazil must expand protected areas and safeguard existing ones, including indigenous reserves, from encroachment. It should improve deforestation monitoring and better enforce the forest code while also strengthening this set of regulations with more severe penalties. The country could explore an emissions trading scheme, something that is being tested by more than 30 major Brazilian companies. Such a scheme could allow for companies to offset carbon emissions with reforestation, which has a low average cost relative to other mitigation efforts.
Although these policies run counter to many of Bolsonaro’s plans, they are critical to fighting global warming and would even yield economic benefits for Brazil.
In addition to preserving biodiversity and combating climate change, deforestation abatement has economic benefits, even for the agricultural industry that supports Bolsonaro. Precipitation regulation provided by the Amazon, through water absorbed through trees’ roots that later evaporates from their leaves, adds between $1 billion and $3 billion of value each year through increased rainfall and agricultural productivity, according to estimates.
If Bolsonaro makes good on his promises regarding renewable energy and biofuels, he could wind up helping the environment in some ways. But his government must still address other issues such as halting deforestation, a measure that is critical to environmental protection but not detrimental to the economy. Bolsonaro has expressed a desire to promote local industry and investment; now that he is at the helm, he must recognize that he has ample opportunity to promote policies that will benefit both the economy and the environment.

*Lisa Viscidi is the director of the Energy, Climate Change, and Extractive Industries Program at the Inter-American Dialogue.
*Nate Graham is the assistant for the Energy, Climate Change, and Extractive Industries Program at the Inter-American Dialogue.

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