13/02/2019

Morrison Must Break With Climate Denialists

Sydney Morning Herald - Editorial

Prime Minister Scott Morrison took a big step forward on Monday by saying what most Australians have long been thinking about the link between climate change and the bushfires, droughts and catastrophic floods that have ravaged the country in recent years.  Hopefully he will now do something about cutting Australia's carbon emissions, too.
The remarks on climate change were perhaps the biggest surprise in a major speech to the National Press Club in Canberra yesterday ahead of the first parliamentary sitting week of 2019 and the federal election.
Prime Minister Scott Morrison accepts climate change is causing natural disasters. Credit: Alex Ellinghausen
Previously, Mr Morrison has refused to accept a causal link between climate change and weather events despite the overwhelming consensus in the scientific community.
As recently as last week, Mr Morrison visited the site of devastating bushfires in south-west Tasmania in forests that had not caught fire in millenniums. Yet he described as "pretty offensive" a suggestion by Greens senator Nick McKim that the fires were made more dangerous by the Coalition's pro-coal policies.
So it was welcome that Mr Morrison on Monday turned around and emphatically accepted the science. "I acknowledge [climate change] is a factor. Of course it is. Australians do – the vast majority of Australians," he  said.
It has taken a long time for these words to come out of Mr Morrison's mouth but the real issue is what he plans to do about them. Mr Morrison promised  to do more on climate change before the next election but he still suffers from a credibility gap on the issue. In the next breath he repeated his prediction that Australia will meet its emissions reductions targets under the Paris Treaty "at a canter" despite strong evidence that it cannot on current settings.
Mr Morrison may want to reoccupy the centre ground on climate change but it is a pity that he rejected even the possibility of compromise on the equally divisive issue of asylum seekers.  "You want to join me on the right ground, you're welcome. But I'm not going to find a middle ground," he said.
The Herald argues that a middle ground exists which gradually saves refugees stuck in limbo in the Pacific without compromising the policy of turning back the boats.
Indeed the Coalition has led the way by sending 500 refugees from Nauru and Manus Island to the US and by voluntarily taking all the children and their families from Nauru. A sensible compromise, however, would require both the government and the equally conflicted ALP to give ground.
The ALP has previously backed a bill put forward by independent MPs giving doctors the final say on whether to bring asylum seekers from Manus and Nauru to Australia for medical treatment. Mr Morrison argues that the bill, to be debated this week, threatens national security and the government must have a veto.
Yet court judgments are already forcing the government to bring scores of sick detainees to Australia for treatment on doctors' orders.  A bipartisan deal seems possible which allows truly urgent cases to come here without costly legal battles but which includes safeguards in case there is evidence that border security is undermined.
In general, Mr Morrison has a choice between looking to the middle ground or pandering to what Defence Minister Christopher Pyne described in Monday's Herald as the "shouty" extreme right  elements in the media and the party. He should be aware that Australians do not usually back the extremes.

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Scientists Say These 10 Major Cities Could Become Unlivable Within 80 Years

Business Insider - Aria Bendix


An aerial view of Shanghai, China, in 2016. VCG/Getty
 As scientific projections of the impacts of climate change become more robust, the threats of extreme storms, catastrophic flooding, heatwaves, and droughts have gotten clearer and more frightening.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicts that global temperatures could rise 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels – the threshold for severe effects of climate change – by 2040. By the turn of the century, temperatures could climb even higher, spelling disaster in some areas.
In the future, cities that are prone to flooding or heat waves could see more severe, and potentially fatal, weather conditions. With this in mind, scientists have begun to pinpoint locations that could become unbearable for humans by the turn of the century.
The following 10 cities might soon struggle to support human life. And for the most part, these areas are already witnessing the devastating effects of climate change.

More than than 3.3 million Miami residents could face catastrophic flooding by 2100.
Miami residents fish during Tropical Storm Gordon on September 3, 2018. Joe Raedle/Getty Images
 In a study published in the journal Nature Climate Change, scientist Mathew Hauer looked at the risk of sea-level rise in the continental US.
From 2010 to 2100, he found, more than 13 million people could be exposed to 6 feet worth of sea-level rise. Of those residents, about a quarter are in Miami-Dade and Broward counties in Florida.In the face of this catastrophic scenario, Hauer told Business Insider, Miami might not be able to adequately prepare.
“I’m 6 feet tall,” he said. “It’s water level as high as I am.”
New Orleans could be underwater as well
Hauer’s study also cited New Orleans as one of the US cities most vulnerable to flooding.
If sea levels were to rise by just 3 feet, more than 100,000 New Orleans residents – about a third of the city’s population – could be inundated.
“When you start tacking on storm surges, tidal flooding, all those other associated events, the [affected populations] get much larger,” Hauer said.
Chicago could see another fatal heat wave at any moment.
The South Side of Chicago. Ezra Shaw/Getty Images
 Chicago is located in one of America’s most severe heat zones, according to Richard Rood, a climate scientist at the University of Michigan.
In 1995, the city witnessed a dangerous heat wave that killed more than 700 people. At that time, outside temperatures reached 106 degrees Fahrenheit, while wet-bulb temperatures – which account for both heat and humidity – reached 85 degrees Fahrenheit.
Studies have shown that exposure to a wet-bulb temperature of more than 95 degrees Fahrenheit can be fatal, since the human body can no longer cool itself.
Rood said a heat wave of this magnitude could happen again at any time in Chicago, which sees high humidity in the summer and regular continental heat.
Dubai’s summer temperatures could reach 113 degrees Fahrenheit after 2070.
A 2015 study from scientists at MIT identified the Middle Eastern Gulf as a “regional hotspot” where climate change could severely threaten human lives.
The study predicted that Gulf cities like Dubai would see temperatures as high as 113 degrees Fahrenheit in the summer after 2070. It also predicted that wet-bulb temperatures would exceed their fatal threshold – 95 degrees Fahrenheit – once every decade or two thereafter.
In a blog post on news.com.au, Australia’s main news site, some Dubai residents described how they already avoid going outdoors from June to September.
“When you walk outside from a nice air-conditioned room it’s a bit like opening an oven door when you’re too close,” one resident said. “The hot air hits you at once.”
Daily temperatures in Abu Dhabi could become unbearable after 2070.
The new districts of Al Ain in Abu Dhabi. Artur Widak/NurPhoto/Getty Images
 The MIT study also lists Abu Dhabi as one of the cities most vulnerable to extreme heat.
In just a half century, the researchers predict, the hottest temperatures in Abu Dhabi will be more than one-off occurrences.
Thus far, the highest temperature ever recorded in the region is 126 degrees Fahrenheit.
By 2070, the city’s residents can expect to endure this level of heat on a more frequent basis.
Shanghai could see fatally high temperatures between 2070 and 2100.
The North China Plain, home to around 400 million residents, could see the deadliest heatwaves on the planet by the end of the century.
According to a 2018 study published in Nature Communications, the area can expect hundreds of severe heatwaves between 2070 and 2100.
Shanghai could be one of the cities that’s most affected. Researchers predict that in that 30-year period, there will be five instances of recorded temperatures in Shanghai that exceed the fatal threshold (wet-bulb temperatures above 95 degrees Fahrenheit).
Shanghai is the third most populous city in the world, with around 25 million residents.
Beijing’s smog could threaten its livability
A Chinese woman wears a mask and filter as she walks to work
during heavy pollution on December 9, 2015 in Beijing, China. 
Kevin Frayer/Getty Images
 Beijing is also part of the North China Plain, making it vulnerable to extreme heatwaves.
Like many Chinese cities, Beijing is a major emitter of greenhouse gases, which also contribute to air pollution. The city is known for frequent bouts of smog that force locals to wear face masks.
Pollution is more deadly than smoking, killing nearly 15 times more people than all the world’s wars and violence combined. In 2015, 9 million people died prematurely from pollution-related diseases, accounting for 16% of all deaths worldwide.
Delhi’s residents already suffer from nausea and headaches due to the smog, as well as heatstroke on hot days.
Extreme temperature conditions in Delhi are similar to those in Beijing and Shanghai.
Smog-filled air causes skin rashes, nausea, and headaches among residents, while some people have also been known to pass out from heatstroke.
A 2017 analysis found that wet-bulb temperatures in South Asian cities like Delhi could reach 95 degrees Fahrenheit – the point at which they become fatal – by 2100. A scenario like that, however, only tends to happen once every 25 years.
According to the analysis, around 2% of the Indian population is currently exposed to wet-bulb temperatures of 90 degrees Fahrenheit. By the end of the century, it predicted, that amount could rise to around 70% of the population.
Sea-level rise has Dhaka teeming with refugees
Zakir Chowdhury/Barcroft Images / Barcroft Media via Getty Images
Bangladesh is one of the most vulnerable nations when it comes to climate change.
Not only is the country prone to heat waves, but it also already has to contend with devastating floods. In the summer of 2017, flooding affected the lives of more than 8 million people in Bangladesh, killing around 140 people and damaging nearly 700,000 homes.
Floods are also stripping away at available land. Each year, riverbank erosion displaces up to 200,000 people in Bangladesh. The IPCC estimates that the nation could lose up to 20% of its landmass from just 3 feet of sea-level rise.
“Sea-level rise is already really present [in Bangladesh],” Rood said. “As the storm surge gets bigger, there are going to be more problems because there are so many people.”
Many climate refugees in Bangladesh are fleeing from rural villages to Dhaka, yet that area is still vulnerable to floods, particularly during monsoon season.
Lagos is growing rapidly despite the looming threat of sea-level rise.
The population of Lagos, Nigeria, may be growing, but the city is also becoming more vulnerable to sea-level rise.
Hauser said Lagos is particularly susceptible to floods due to its low-lying terrain and location on a river delta. In 2016, researchers predicted that Lagos could see 260,000 deaths due to flooding in the next 10 years.
According to Rood, the increased frequency of flooding and extreme weather in cities like Lagos could make it difficult for the areas to recover after each event.
But both he and Hauser say the impacts of climate disasters can be mitigated with appropriate planning and infrastructure.
“Your probability of getting into a car accident is relatively low for any given drive, yet we wear seat belts. In any given year, your probability of dying is relatively low, yet you buy life insurance,” Hauser said.
Similarly, cities should plan for rising temperatures and sea levels, he said.
“We have plenty of examples where, if you prepare for these heat emergencies, then you can survive them,” Rood said. “The question to me is, do they become so common that it’s not worth it anymore?”

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The Guardian View On The Mass Death Of Insects: This Threatens Us All

The Guardian - Editorial

Global warming and industrialised farming are damaging vital ecosystems 
Honeybees. ‘Biodiversity is not an optional extra. It is the web that holds all life, including human life.’
Photograph: Carolyn Kaster/AP
One of the classic science-fiction treatments of the end of civilisation was The Death of Grass, by John Christopher, in which a mysterious sickness struck down all the grasses on which most of the world’s agriculture is based, from rice to wheat.
In the end, politics among the survivors of plague, war and famine was reduced to a bitter fratricidal struggle over a defensible potato patch. Like most of the so-called “cosy catastrophe” novels, this could be criticised for optimism. Grim though a future of famine and the war of all against all might seem, the consequences were largely confined to humans.
The threatened extinction of insect populations around the world raises the prospect of a much more general catastrophe, which would implicate plants, birds, fish, small mammals, and everything else that depends on insects.
That’s just the start. Other species, and we ourselves, depend on the animals and plants that need insects. When they go, we go. This is not just a greater catastrophe. It’s a much more plausible one. The most recent study concluded that insect biomass is decreasing around the world at a rate of 2.5% a year. At that rate, half the insects in the world will be gone in 50 years’ time, and all of them in a century – although no one will be keeping track of centuries then.
The chief driver of this catastrophe is unchecked human greed. For all our individual and even collective cleverness, we behave as a species with as little foresight as a colony of nematode worms that will consume everything it can reach until all is gone and it dies off naturally.
The challenge of behaving more intelligently than creatures that have no brain at all will not be easy. But unlike the nematodes, we know what to do. The UN convention on biodiversity was signed in 1992, alongside the convention on climate change. Giving it the strength to curb our appetites is now urgent.
Biodiversity is not an optional extra. It is the web that holds all life, including human life.
The two main expressions of greed that hasten this apocalypse are global warming and industrial agriculture. It appears that most of the damage is being done in the developed world by farming practices.
The use of giant fields, devoid of shelter for insects of any sort at all, whether they are harmful to human interests or not, and where the plants are drenched in long-lasting pesticides, has been fatal for uncounted billions of insects. The effects of this kind of farming reach beyond the fields immediately affected, too.
There has been a huge loss of aquatic insect species from the rivers into which the products of industrial agriculture are flushed by rain. Even in German nature reserves, which are by definition protected from the use of pesticides, there have been steep falls in insect populations because so many of the most widely used ones are persistent and prevent breeding.
In the tropics, the steady rise of global temperatures is already devastating whole ecosystems, starting at the bottom with the insects. Last year we learned of the disappearance of almost all the ground-dwelling insects from a rainforest in Puerto Rico, and three-quarters of the species of the canopy.
Some governments have done some necessary things. The EU has banned neonicotinoid pesticides. But the necessary change also relies on individual action. As individuals we must consume less in every way, which helps with climate change. We must also change our food habits. To eat less meat and more organic is not just piety. A little self-restraint in this generation will make all the difference to our grandchildren.

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