19/02/2019

'Woefully Inadequate': Morrison Government To Use Paris Climate Short-Cut

Fairfax - Peter Hannam

The use of carbon credits to meet Australia's Paris climate targets would be "consistent" with the current Kyoto Protocol, the Morrison government said in the strongest signal yet it plans to exploit accounting ambiguities to meet its international commitments.
Senator Simon Birmingham told estimates on Monday the application of so-called carryover credits was "an existing feature of the Kyoto framework" that runs to 2020.
The Morrison government has made its clearest signal yet that it plans to use Kyoto period credits to count against Australia's Paris climate goals. Credit: Andrew Taylor
To deploy a similar treatment for carbon credits to help Australia meet its abatement target for the 2021-30 Paris climate period "appears to be a consistent application of the rules and definitions", Senator Birmingham said.
By overachieving on the Kyoto Protocol period, Australia will have a surplus, measured in tonnes of carbon-dioxide equivalent. The government wants to do what no other nation has indicated it will do.
The government revealed just prior to Christmas Australia was on course to over-achieve its 2020 target by 367 million tonnes of carbon-dioxide equivalent.
On current projections, Australia's abatement task is 695 million tonnes of CO-e, meaning the carryover credits reduce the country's emissions reduction effort by more than half.
Figures obtained by the Australian Conservation Foundation under freedom of information laws show Australia's emissions are still on a rising trend.
By 2030, emissions will be 570 million tonnes of CO-e, up from 534 million tonnes in 2018, the Environment Department projections show.
That tally is also well above the 440 million tonnes implied by Australia's pledge to cut carbon pollution 26 per cent from 2005 levels by 2030.

The latest projections show Australia's emissions are expect to rise to 570 million tonnes of carbon-dioxide equivalent by 2030 from about 534 million tonnes in 2018. To meet the Paris goal of a 26 per cent reduction on 2005 levels, the emissions total would need to be 442 million tonnes. Credit: Environment department, via ACF FOI request
Suzanne Harter, ACF's climate change campaigner, said the Morrison government was pre-empting global negotiations on the Paris Rule book by assuming Kyoto credits could be counted for Paris goals.
“This arrogant approach will not be appreciated by countries like New Zealand, Germany, the Netherlands, Denmark, Sweden and the UK, which have said they will not use carry-over credits to meet climate targets," Ms Harter said.
“The Australian Government is already starting from a woefully inadequate pollution reduction target that is not in line with a safe future."
The Ichthys Explorer offshore LNG production platform - part of Australia's fastest growing emissions source.
'Fiddles'
While a federal Labor government would need to take advice on how to account for any Kyoto carbon surplus, the ALP remains opposed to their use.
Labor’s position "has been clear for some time," Mark Butler, Labor's climate spokesman, said. "We are very strongly against accounting tricks, cop-outs and other fiddles used to dodge the obligation we have to start to reduce our carbon pollution levels seriously."
"Labor is committed to reducing carbon emissions by 45 per cent on 2005 levels by 2030, and [to reach] net zero emissions by 2050," he said.
Richie Merzian, director of the climate and energy program at The Australia Institute, said Senator Birmingham's comments were the "strongest commitment" yet that it intends to bank Kyoto credits and use them for the Paris targets.
To do so, though, would single out Australia among OECD nations attempting to take advantage of "loopholes of the past", Mr Merzian said.
Tim Baxter, a researcher at Melbourne University's Australian-German Climate and Energy College, said the Morrison government was gambling that other nations will be wary of pressing Australia too hard when they too may be seeking shortcuts to meet their Paris goals.
"There are not any rules on this and there are unlikely to be any rules," Mr Baxter said.
Still, "it certainly wasn't the spirit" of Paris to accept carryovers from the Kyoto period, he said.

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Scientist Who Warned Early About Climate Change, Popularized Term 'Global Warming' Dies At 87

NBC News - Associated Press

"He saw clearly the unprecedented warming now playing out and made his views clear, even when few were willing to listen," a fellow scientist said of researcher Wallace Smith Broecker.
A polar bear tests the strength of thin sea ice in the Arctic on August 22, 2015. Mario Hoppmann / European Geosciences Union/AFP - Getty Images file
NEW YORK (AP) — A scientist who raised early alarms about climate change and popularized the term "global warming" has died. Wallace Smith Broecker was 87.
The longtime Columbia University professor and researcher died Monday at a New York City hospital, according to a spokesman for the university's Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory. Kevin Krajick said Broecker had been ailing in recent months.
Broecker brought "global warming" into common use with a 1975 article that correctly predicted rising carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere would lead to pronounced warming. He later became the first person to recognize what he called the Ocean Conveyor Belt, a global network of currents affecting everything from air temperature to rain patterns.
Wallace Smith Broecker, a professor in the Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences at Columbia University in New York, addresses the audience during the Balzan prize ceremony in Rome on Nov. 21, 2008. Gregorio Borgia / AP file
"Wally was unique, brilliant and combative," said Princeton University professor Michael Oppenheimer. "He wasn't fooled by the cooling of the 1970s. He saw clearly the unprecedented warming now playing out and made his views clear, even when few were willing to listen."
In the Ocean Conveyor Belt, cold, salty water in the North Atlantic sinks, working like a plunger to drive an ocean current from near North America to Europe. Warm surface waters borne by this current help keep Europe's climate mild.
Otherwise, he said, Europe would be a deep freeze, with average winter temperatures dropping by 20 degrees Fahrenheit or more and London feeling more like Spitsbergen, Norway, which is 600 miles north of the Arctic Circle.
Broecker said his studies suggested that the conveyor is the "Achilles heel of the climate system" and a fragile phenomenon that can change rapidly for reasons not understood. It would take only a slight rise in temperature to keep water from sinking in the North Atlantic, he said, and that would bring the conveyor to a halt. Broecker said it is possible that warming caused by the buildup of greenhouse gases could be enough to affect the ocean currents dramatically.
"Broecker single-handedly popularized the notion that this could lead to a dramatic climate change 'tipping point' and, more generally, Broecker helped communicate to the public and policymakers the potential for abrupt climate changes and unwelcome 'surprises' as a result of climate change," said Penn State professor Michael Mann.
Smoke billows from a large steel plant as a Chinese labourer works at an unauthorized steel factory, foreground, in Inner Mongolia, China on November 4, 2016. Kevin Frayer / Getty Images file
In 1984, Broecker told a House subcommittee that the buildup of greenhouse gases warranted a "bold, new national effort aimed at understanding the operation of the realms of the atmosphere, oceans, ice and terrestrial biosphere."
"We live in a climate system that can jump abruptly from one state to another," Broecker told the Associated Press in 1997. By dumping into the atmosphere huge amounts of greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide from the burning of fossil fuels, "we are conducting an experiment that could have devastating effects."
"We're playing with an angry beast — a climate system that has been shown to be very sensitive," he said.
Broecker received the National Medal of Science in 1996 and was a member of the National Academy of Science. He also served a stint as the research coordinator for Biosphere 2, an experimental living environment turned research lab.
Broecker was born in Chicago in 1931 and grew up in suburban Oak Park.
He joined Columbia's faculty in 1959, spending most of his time at the university's laboratory in Palisades, New York. He was known in science circles as the "Grandfather of Climate Science" and the "Dean of Climate Scientists."
"His discoveries were fundamental to interpreting Earth's climate history," said Oppenheimer. "No scientist was more stimulating to engage with: he was an instigator in a good way, willing to press unpopular ideas, like lofting particles to offset climate change. But it was always a two-way conversation, never dull, always educational. I'll miss him."

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Nearly 2 Billion People Depend On Himalayan Glaciers. What If They Melt?

Christian Science Monitor - 

Polar glacial melt has become one of the hallmarks of global warming. But what happens when glaciers disappear from more densely inhabited regions?
Trekkers pass through a glacier at the Mount Everest base camp, Nepal, Feb. 22, 2016. One-third of Himalayan glaciers will melt by the end of the century due to climate change, according to a recent assessment by the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development. Tashi Sherpa/AP/File
The largest area of permanent ice cover outside of the North and South Poles is under threat. The glaciers of the Hindu Kush Himalaya feed into 10 major river basins that sustain some of the world’s most populous and biologically diverse countries. Some 240 million people directly depend on them for fresh water; 1.9 billion benefit indirectly from their outflows.
But by century’s end, at least one-third – and as much as two-thirds – of the region’s glaciers could be gone, according to a landmark report by the Kathmandu-based International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development.
Loss of glacial mass is likely to feed into and create more glacial lakes, increasing flooding in a region already prone to natural disasters. This has crucial implications for the region’s agriculture and energy security, which depends on hydropower. Amid the troubling signs, however, researchers outlined a path to prosperity: large-scale, transnational investment, combined with closely coordinated local and national actions.
At the global level, nations must adopt transformative climate change policies, the researchers say. Locally, improved transportation and communication access can help alert residents to dangerous conditions and enable them to find safety. Particular attention should be paid to the education and empowerment of women, the report urges, as they already bear the majority of farming and nurturing responsibilities in high-risk mountain areas. Without intervention, climate could exacerbate existing vulnerabilities and gender inequity.
Combined efforts to reduce the effects of climate change and enhance disaster resilience at the community level, the researchers write, will help “enable a prosperous, peaceful, and poverty-free people.”
SOURCE: World Bank, ESA, NASA, Kraaijenbrink, P. D. A. et al. (2017).
Impact of a global temperature rise of 1.5° Celsius on Asia’s glaciers Jacob Turcotte/Staff
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'The Darling Will Die': Scientists Say Mass Fish Kill Due To Over-Extraction And Drought

The Guardian - 

Australian Academy of Science panel says urgent steps needed to restore flows
 Two dead murray cod float on the surface of the Darling River near Menindee. Photograph: Dean Lewins/EPA
A scientific panel investigating the causes of three mass fish deaths at the Menindee lakes has pointed the finger squarely at those managing the Murray-Darling river system, saying the lack of flows was caused by a combination of drought and over-extraction, leading to the environmental disaster.
Up to one million native fish, including hundreds of thousands of small bony bream Murray cod, up to 20 years old and silver perch were killed in the three events. While there had been other fish kills during droughts, these were on an unprecedented scale, the report found.
“The conditions leading to this event are an interaction between a severe (but not unprecedented) drought and, more significantly, excess upstream diversion of water for irrigation,” the panel of scientists convened by the Academy of Science said. “Prior releases of water from Menindee Lakes contributed to lack of local reserves.”
Unless urgent steps are taken to restore flows in the Darling, Prof Craig Moritz, who chaired the panel, warned: “The Darling will die.”
“No one expects the river to run every year but they have cut the water so hard, the river is dying,” he said.


The report will again focus attention on the massive expansion of irrigated cotton farming in northern New South Wales, and the state’s commitment to the Murray-Darling basin plan.
The panel has called for an immediate effort over the next six months to restore flows, combined with a Menindee lakes restoration plan focused on restoring its ecology, not saving water, as NSW hopes to do with its Menindee lakes water saving plan.
IMAGE
It says there must be meaningful consultation with the Indigenous people who have native title along the river, as well as with local communities, to tap into local knowledge.
It is also calling on the federal government to immediately reverse last year’s decision to cut the environmental water recovery target for the northern basin by 70 gigalitres, a move the panel warns will further degrade the river.
But Moritz acknowledged there were limited options to prevent more fish deaths in the short term. Without “truckloads of rain” , there was almost no environmental water in storage upstream and letting small amounts of the bad-quality water go could make it worse.
The report, under the auspices of the Australian Academy of Science, was commissioned by the opposition leader, Bill Shorten, and released on Monday morning.
“I promised Australians I would get them answers on how this ecological disaster took place, and that’s what this report does, Shorten said.
“There is simply not enough environmental water held in the Darling River to meet critical environmental needs in times of drought,” he said.
“The Murray Darling Basin Plan was well designed by Labor, but its implementation has been mismanaged by the Liberals. That’s hurting the river, hurting farmers and hurting the environment,” he said.
Labor is now supporting the removal of a 1,500 GL cap on water buybacks, which will clear the way for more purchases of water from farmers. But he did not say whether Labor would support a reversal of the 70 GL cut to environmental water recovery in the Northern Basin – something it has supported to date.
The scientists made a point of saying they had consulted with the government’s rival panel, headed by Prof Robert Vertessy, and shared data and conclusions, which suggests it too will make similar findings when it is released in a few days.
The academy scientists agreed with the NSW Department of Primary Industries finding that the immediate cause of the fish deaths was stratification of the water column in the weir near Menindee, which led to blue green algae outbreaks in the warm surface water during a run of very hot days over 40C, and deoxygenated water below.
When the temperature dropped during a cool change, the algae died and the water column mixed, depleting the river of oxygen and causing the mass fish deaths. After the initial fish kill just before Christmas, the dead fish and algae on the bottom may have added to the problem.
But the academy report goes much further in analysing what has happened to long-term flows in the Darling. “Increasing diversions are related to pumping of environmental water, increased floodplain harvesting, policy changes in NSW in relation to the Barwon-Darling Water Sharing Plan and access to low flows and theft,” the report says.
“As a result of water resource development in the Barwon-Darling and its tributary catchments, maximum dry periods between low flow events have doubled and are sometimes 10 times longer, severely stressing ecosystems.”
The panel based its conclusions on the Murray-Darling Basin Authority’s own scientific work on flows from 2018.
It also cited a report to the Commonwealth Environmental Water Office which identified that low flows have reduced by 70% across most sections of the Barwon-Darling since 1990.
Decisions by the NSW government to drain the lakes meant there was no local reserves of water available.
The scientists said regular, low flows in the Darling were important in ensuring that native fish and invertebrate populations survived during dry periods, and upstream and downstream connectivity were maintained.
The panel was particularly critical of NSW and its 2012 water sharing plan. “The NSW Barwon-Darling Water Sharing Plan, and changes to it in 2012, contributed directly to the decline of low flows, independent of rainfall, and hence to the recent fish kills,” it said.
“Further undesirable reductions in flow in the Darling River are possible with pending changes by states to calculations of long-term diversion limit equivalent (or cap) factors.”
The scientists also warned that the implementation of the NSW floodplain harvesting policy would potentially legitimise growth in diversions. They said the take of groundwater was also likely to be contributing to the problem.
The scientists were also asked to comment on whether climate change was contributing to the problems of the river system.
“The Murray-Darling Basin has increased in temperature by ~1 °C since 1910 and there is high confidence that the Northern Basin will continue to warm, towards a further 1–2 °C increase over the coming one to three decades. These large changes cannot be explained without anthropogenic emissions.”
But so far there was no detectable long-term change in observed annual precipitation.
“While climate change linked to increasing emissions has contributed to hotter conditions, it is unlikely that the observed reductions in flows is attributable to climate change alone,” they said.

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Australia's Biggest Companies Failing To Plan For Climate Change Risks: Report

ABC - Nassim Khadem

The Paris agreement's pledge was to keep global warming to "well below" 2 degrees. (ABC News: Lisa Millar)
Key points:
  • Of 72 big listed companies operating in sectors, more than half (57 per cent) identify climate change as a material business risk
  • Investors have been voting against companies not taking action and regulators have warned businesses that don't mitigate risks could be held liable
  • Companies have pledged to do more to meet global guidelines aimed at reducing carbon emissions
Australia's biggest companies are ignoring calls from regulators and investors to do more to mitigate the risks of climate change, with a new study finding that many of the nation's top 100 companies still do not identify climate change as a material business risk.
The report, to be released on Monday by environmental campaign group Market Forces, is based on public information from 72 big listed companies operating in sectors considered high-risk on climate change.
It found that just above half (57 per cent) identify climate change as a material business risk, and just 32 per cent of the companies disclose detailed discussions of specific climate risks and opportunities facing their businesses.
Market Forces released the first iteration of its report, 'Investing in the Dark', in March 2018. The new findings take into account announcements and changes from companies that have reported or updated disclosures in the last year.
Market Forces analyst Will van de Pol said despite increasing rhetoric from investors and regulators about climate change risks, on most metrics, there has been almost no progress to report.
"Companies are willing to make general statements recognising climate change as a potential risk but very few have gone into the detail of how climate change risks might materialise for their business and what they are doing in response," he said.
No planning to meet Paris pledge
The Market Forces study follows a report by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC) in September that found that out of 60 listed companies in a sample of the ASX 300, just 17 per cent identified climate risk as a material risk to their business.
Banks increase exposure to fossil fuels 
The ASIC review found in some cases "climate risk disclosures to be far too general, and of limited use to investors".
The study also comes off the back off global guidelines to help investors understand their financial exposure to climate risk and help companies better disclose this information.
The G20-backed Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures (TCFD) guidelines, released in June 2017, take into account the Paris Agreement's pledge to keep global warming to below 2 degrees.
The Market Forces study found just 14 per cent of Australia's top 100 companies have disclosed detailed scenario analysis demonstrating their viability in a 2-degree policy pathway. This is a marginal improvement from the 10 per cent recorded in March 2018.
Only 24 per cent have a clear plan to reduce greenhouse gas emissions (up from 16 per cent a year earlier).
Mr van de Pol said investors should demand companies produce Paris-aligned transition plans, and divest from those that cannot or will not.

Investors vote for a cleaner future
A number of ASX 200 companies have recently faced shareholder resolutions on their failure to address climate change risks.
"It shouldn't take a shareholder resolution to bring laggard companies into line," Mr Van de Pol said.
In October, 40 per cent of Whitehaven Coal's investors supported a resolution demanding the company reveal the financial risks it faces as a result of climate change.
Australian company directors have
started caring about climate change
It was one of the biggest votes for climate action at an Australian AGM ever, and the first resolution in Australia that explicitly called for a company to ensure its strategy is aligned with the goals of the Paris Agreement on climate change.
"Whitehaven currently lags its peers when it comes to climate risk disclosure," Mr Van de Pol said.
"It discloses minimal detail about the risks it faces from climate change, or what the company is doing to address those risks."
A spokesman for Whitehaven said climate change is an issue requiring coordinated international action and the company was committed to playing a role in reducing carbon emissions.
This would happen by "promoting increased use of Whitehaven's high quality, low-emissions coal".
The company was also reviewing the TCFD recommendations and would incorporate these into its annual reporting later in the year, he said.

Insurer's fossil fuels exposure
In May, QBE also faced pressure from investors, with a resolution calling on the company to disclose the risks to its business from climate change. It was backed by 18.6 per cent of shareholders.
In August, the insurer released its plan to implement the TCFD recommendations.
According to Swiss Re, 2017 was the costliest year in the history of the insurance industry and QBE itself reported a $US1.2 billion loss, mainly due to extreme weather including floods, storms and wildfires.
"QBE is falling behind its European competitors, like Axa, Allianz and Zurich, which have recognised the need for climate action," Mr Van de Pol said.
"They [those global companies] dumped their coal company shares and are restricting their insurance for coal mines and power stations."
But he said QBE was still an underwriter of fossil fuel projects and had invested in other companies with climate exposures.
A spokesman for QBE said "climate change is a principal risk for our business".
QBE was committed to completing the work required to implement the TCFDs recommendations.
"This work is already well advanced," he said, and the company would give an update its progress in its upcoming annual report.
On Friday, Suncorp chief executive Michael Cameron said the Federal Government should force businesses to adhere to climate change action plans, after the company reported its half-year profit dived 44.7 per cent, largely as a result of extreme weather events.

Call for regulators to take 'meaningful action'
Regulators have recently signalled that companies failing to take action to mitigate risks could ultimately be held liable.
New coal power is not the answer
In a speech in June, ASIC Commissioner John Price said directors "would do well" to carefully consider a 2016 legal opinion by Noel Hutley SC and Sebastien Hartford-Davis that they could face lawsuits for failing to consider risks related to climate change.
And in November 2017, APRA executive Geoff Summerhayes warned that "should extreme weather events become more frequent and intense as scientists predict", there could be "adverse economic impacts" that threaten financial system stability.

Mr van de Pol called on ASIC to "back its rhetoric" and take "meaningful action" against companies breaking disclosure laws.
He said more extreme weather events including floods, fires and droughts show that there is an urgent problem to address.
"Financial institutions need to steer our economy away from the catastrophic impacts of climate change," he said.
"When the financial impacts hits home investors are left with a company that's devalued and will be looking for someone to blame."

Boards given responsibility for climate risks
The Market Forces study found 86 per cent of companies now place overall responsibility for climate risk management with the board, up from 73 per cent one year ago.The number of companies encouraging emissions reduction through remuneration has doubled to 32 per cent.
This is in sync with a recent survey showing company directors are taking a more active interest in the issue.
In October, the Australian Institute of Company Directors' (AICD) survey of more than 1,200 company directors found they had for the first time nominated climate change as the number one issue they want the Federal Government to address in the long term.
Responsible Investment Association Australasia (RIAA) chief executive Simon O'Connor said investors were increasingly setting decarbonisation targets for their investment portfolios.
"Many responsible investors are rightfully concerned about this low level of disclosure," he said.
"More and more responsible investors are considering divestment from fossil fuel companies as an option on the table."
The association's finance sector members would be reporting line with the TCFD recommendations.

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