Lethal Heating: 04/14/19

The Conversation - Matthew Carl Ives | Penny Mealy | Thom Wetzer

Search online for “climate change” and “tipping points” and you’ll find some scary results. Melting ice sheets, the collapse of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation , the permafrost methane “time bomb” and the die-back of the Amazon rainforest threaten to exacerbate the climate crisis and send global warming spiralling out of control.
But what if we could leverage similar tipping point dynamics to solve the climate problem? Like physical or environmental systems, socioeconomic and political systems can also exhibit nonlinear dynamics. Memes on the internet can go viral, loan defaults can cascade into financial crises, and public opinion can shift in rapid and radical ways.
In an article just out in Science, we outline a new approach to climate change that tries to find areas in socioeconomic and political systems that are “sensitive” – where modest but well-timed interventions could generate outsized impacts and accelerate progress towards a post-carbon world.

Sensitive Intervention Points (SIPs)
These “Sensitive Intervention Points” – or SIPs – could trigger self-reinforcing feedback loops, which can amplify small changes to produce outsized effects. Take, for example, solar photovoltaics. As more solar panels are produced and deployed, costs fall through “learning-by-doing” as practice, market testing and incremental innovation make the whole process cheaper.
Cost reductions lead to greater demand, further deployment, more learning-by-doing, more cost reductions and so on. However, the spread of renewables isn’t just dependent on technology and cost improvements. Social dynamics can also play a major role. As people observe their neighbours installing rooftop solar panels they might be more inclined to do so themselves. This effect could cause a shift in cultural and social norms.
Financial markets are another key area where SIPs could help accelerate the transition to post-carbon societies. Many companies are currently failing to disclose and account for climate risks associated with assets on their balance sheet. Climate risk can entail physical risks, caused by extreme weather or flooding. They can also entail the risk of assets such as fossil fuel reserves becoming stranded as economies transition to limit warming to 1.5℃ or 2℃, when such resources are no longer valuable.

Oil and other fossil fuel reserves could become stranded assets. The Sun photo/Shutterstock

Most of the world’s current fossil fuel reserves can’t be used if the world is to limit warming and they become effectively worthless once this is acknowledged. By not accounting for these risks to fossil fuel assets, high-emission industries are effectively given an advantage over low-carbon alternatives that shouldn’t exist. Relatively modest changes to accounting and disclosure guidelines could make a significant difference.
If companies are required to disclose information about the climate risks associated with their assets – and if such disclosure is consistent and comparable across companies – investors can make more informed decisions and the implicit subsidy enjoyed by high-emission industries is likely to rapidly disappear.
Opportunities for triggering SIPs in a given system can also change over time. Sometimes “windows of opportunity” open up, where very unlikely changes become possible. A key example in the UK was the political climate in 2007-2008 which enabled the 2008 UK Climate Change Act to pass with near unanimous support. This national legislation was the first of its kind and committed the UK to reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 80% relative to 1990 levels by 2050.
The act also created a regular ratcheting cycle which encourages more ambitious future climate action. Since 2008, emissions in the UK have fallen dramatically. However, the UK Climate Change Act’s influence beyond the UK is also significant as it encouraged similar legislation in other countries, including the Paris Agreement, which contains the same self-reinforcing ratcheting mechanism.

Using SIPs for rapid change
Thinking about SIPs in policy and business could accelerate the post-carbon transition – but much work lies ahead. The first step is to systematically identify potential SIPs and the mechanisms by which they can be amplified.
Unfortunately, traditional economic models commonly used to evaluate climate policy are poorly equipped to do this, but new analytical methods are increasingly being used in policy.
These new methods could provide more accurate insights into the costs, benefits and possibilities of SIPs for addressing climate change. As SIPs could be present in all spheres of life, experts in social and natural sciences will need to work together.
The window to avert catastrophic climate change is closing fast, but with intelligent interventions at sensitive points in the system, we believe success is still possible. Since the stakes are so high – and the time frame so limited – it is not possible to chase every seemingly promising idea. But with a smart, strategic approach to unleashing feedback mechanisms and exploiting critical windows of opportunity in systems that are ripe for change, we may just be able to tip the planet onto a post-carbon trajectory.

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Women In The World - Roja Heydarpour

Last year, scientists warned that humanity has only 12 years left before facing cataclysmic consequences for the planet. Here’s why women can be the saviors of our fragile world.

From left to right: Nina Lakhani, Dr. Mae Jemison and Christiana Figueres

Half a degree in temperature seems like it would be barely noticeable, but the difference between 1.5 degrees and 2 degrees Celsius is significant when measuring global warming. A world 2 degrees warmer would mean up to 3 times the destruction of the world’s natural ecosystem and built infrastructure, and at least a doubling of the number of people exposed to life-threatening heat or hunger.
Christiana Figueres, an architect of the Paris Accord, the United Nations agreement that aims to hold warming at no more than 1.5 degrees, made the audience feel that half-degree during a panel discussion on climate change at the 10th annual Women in the World Summit on Wednesday.
Figueres was joined by 3 other women who are quite literally fighting to save the planet. (Greta Thunberg, who has made waves as a youth climate activist, was invited to participate but refuses to fly due to environmental concerns.) Nevertheless, Thunberg’s presence was felt as moderator Juju Chang, Nightline co-anchor, led Figueres, Cristina Mittermeier, Nina Lakhani and Dr. Mae Jemison in a conversation that included dire warnings and optimistic calls for change.
“That’s why Greta is on the streets. Bless the outrage of Greta leading 1.5 million people on March 15th out in the streets in 88 countries in the world and growing,” Figueres said of Thunberg’s leadership in a worldwide student strike to bring attention to climate change. “They’re telling us, ‘We’re doing our homework, you oldies are not doing your homework.’”

Christiana Figueres: "If outrage falls into despair, we are literally fried"

Figueres’s warnings weren’t just about the planet’s future. Fittingly, as founding partner of Global Optimism, she also emphasized the dangers of falling into cynicism and apathy rather than moving toward activism and positive change. Mittermeier, co-founder of SeaLegacy and a National Geographic photographer, works to spur the latter through her storytelling. She has been documenting climate change for years and caught the world’s attention with a now iconic photograph of a starving polar bear. Mittermeier said the shot made people feel the urgency — and anxiety — of climate change.
Lakhani, a journalist and author who reports on indigenous communities in Central America, echoed the real effects of climate change. She highlighted the connection between unpredictable weather patterns and migration, which has been grabbing headlines, and stoking fears, in the United States. “For hundreds and hundreds of years, their ancestors have lived in a very sustainable way,” she said. “All of a sudden that doesn’t work anymore.”
Women have been particularly affected by water scarcity, she said, because more often than not, men are the first to migrate. In other parts of the world, a lack of electricity gobbles up hours of many women’s days.
For a broader perspective, Jemison, an engineer, doctor and the first woman of color to go into space, talked about the importance of science literacy and looking at the planet from the heavens. “I had the feeling that the Earth will be here. It doesn’t matter,” she said. “We have to save ourselves. Space is not a Plan B.”

Additional reporting by Anna Hall.

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14/04/2019

Tip The Planet: Tackling Climate Change With Small, Sensitive Interventions

Can Women Save Planet Earth? 4 Women Fighting Climate Change Say They Can — And Must