04/07/2019

This Was The Hottest June In History, And Summer Is Just Getting Started

Grist

Mustafa Yalcin / Anadolu Agency / Getty Images   
If sometime during the past month you wiped sweat from your brow and thought, “Damn, it’s hot!” then congrats, your body knows what’s up. This past month was the hottest June ever recorded on planet Earth, according to the European Union’s Earth observation program, which announced the new record on Tuesday.
The unprecedented heat brought death, destruction, and misery to huge swaths of the planet. By the middle of June, more than 35 people had died as temperatures soared past 120 degrees Fahrenheit in India. France set a new national temperature record: 115 degrees. Multiple wildfires broke out in Spain, one of them, a 10,000-acre blaze, might have started when heat caused a pile of manure to burst into flames. One European heat map turned such a violent shade of red it looked like an open-mouthed skull in mid-scream (you have to see it to believe it). And, get this: Summer is just getting started.
In Europe, June temperatures were 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit higher than normal, according to the European program called Copernicus. Globally, temperatures were about a fifth of a degree higher than normal for the month, beating out the record set in 2016.
Here’s another worrisome finding from the report : If you compare the last several days of June to the average for the same several days between 1981 to 2010, temperatures this year were around 10 to 18 degrees F higher than normal over much of Western Europe — France, Germany, northern Spain, northern Italy, Switzerland, Austria, and the Czech Republic.
Super weird that temperatures just decided to spike like that. There’s no way humans have anything to do with it, right?
Heat waves like the one that just gripped Europe are not always directly linked to anthropogenic climate change, but extreme weather events are made worse by higher concentrations of greenhouse gases.
Another report released Tuesday from World Weather Attribution found that such heat waves are happening about 10 times more often now than they were a century ago. “Every heatwave occurring in Europe today is made more likely and more intense by human-induced climate change,” the report said.
Perhaps all this sweltering weather will spur governments to fulfill their commitments to slash carbon emissions. Barring that, it’s probably time to invest in a good air conditioner (and, yes, we know that comes with plenty of problems, too).

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Heatwave - Climate Change Connections In One Simple Analogy

ForbesMarshall Shepherd

Dr. J. Marshall Shepherd
Dr. Marshall Shepherd is a leading international expert in weather and climate.
He was the 2013 President of American Meteorological Society (AMS) and is Director of the University of Georgia’s (UGA) Atmospheric Sciences Program.
Dr. Shepherd is the Georgia Athletic Association Distinguished Professor and hosts The Weather Channel’s Weather Geeks Podcast, which can be found at all podcast outlets. 
Prior to UGA, Dr. Shepherd spent 12 years as a Research Meteorologist at NASA-Goddard Space Flight Center and was Deputy Project Scientist for the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission
A devastating heatwave is happening in Europe right now. Temperature records are falling and not just by a small margin. The death toll is starting to rise and is prompting memories of the 2003 European heatwave that killed 30,000 to 50,000 people according to most estimates. The World Meteorological Organization tweeted on Friday:
For the first time on record, #France sees a temperature above 45°C. Villevieille measured 45.1°C this afternoon at 1459, topping the previous record of 44.3°C set just an hour previously, per @meteofrance  #heatwave #climatechange
According to meteorologists at Weather.com, a large high pressure system over Europe is the "weather" factor responsible for the heatwave.  Weather is, in part, governed by the space-time patterns of a series of waves in that fluid overhead called the atmosphere. It exhibits natural and day-to-day variability. An atmospheric "road block," if you will, near Greenland responsible for record melting there is also altering the aforementioned global wave pattern and causing extreme heat in Europe. Some voices will roll out the predictable narrative that heatwaves happen naturally. They do. However, an increasing body of scientific literature and simple common sense tells us that something else is going on too.

Oppressive heat is ravaging Europe. European Space Agency
University of Georgia atmospheric sciences professor John Knox offered one of the most compelling and clear analogies to explain why an anthropogenic climate change signal is increasingly associated with events like the European heatwave. Knox wrote:
The old record for the nation was 44.1C (111.4F), from the deadly 2003 heat wave in Europe. So, France just bested its high temperature by 3 degrees Fahrenheit. That's a lot. As with, say, 100-meter dash records in seconds, national temperature records in degrees should be broken in tenths, really hundredths--not integer values.If this were the world of track and field, a new record of this extremity would prompt immediate concerns about doping. The runner is fast, but no way is he or she THAT fast.
By the way, an astute Tweet noted by @robsobs pointed out, "Note that at least 12 other “runners” beat the previous record as well, and all of this happened before the usual peak heat period."

Persistent high pressure aloft is part of the weather pattern explaining the current European heatwave. Tomer Burg's Model Page
Of course, you have the small but very loud crowd that will spew cliche and irrelevant points that actual climate scientists are aware of or have long considered. For example, I saw a person imply that it is not a big deal to have a heatwave in the summer. Professor Knox agrees but points out that summer in France can be hot, but it should not be this hot and certainly not this early. Further, actual climate scientists have assessed how contemporary extreme events are linked to climate change. Previously in Forbes, I summarized the 2016 National Academy of Science report on attribution:
Confidence is greatest for extreme events related to aspects of temperature (e.g. extreme heat and lack of extreme cold events). Attribution science is relatively young but has advanced rapidly. The National Academy panel noted that attribution is most reliable when there are sound physical principles, consistent observational evidence, and the ability for numerical models to replicate the event. These "three legs of the stool" were used as benchmarks to rate the confidence.
The graphic  below conveys that there is very high confidence that the "fingerprint of climate change" is smudged all over the current generation of heatwaves on Earth. Numerous studies affirm that heat waves are increasing (and will continue to) in frequency or intensity as climate changes. A 2018 study in Environmental Research Letters found that across 571 cities:
  • heatwave days increase in future climate model scenarios, particularly in southern Europe
  • the greatest heatwave temperature increases are in central Europe
Another climate zombie theory (something that keeps coming up though scientists have long disproven it) seen floating around the Internet is that all of the numbers are wrong because the thermometers are in cities or near asphalt. You will typically see some cherry-picked image of a thermometer near a road or building. I always find this one to be amusing because climate scientists are smart enough to know about urban biases. In fact, I wrote an entire article (link) about this misguided attempt to confuse people.
The current heatwave is very dangerous. The combination of record high maximum and minimum temperatures is a double whammy for humans. Warm nighttime temperatures are particularly dangerous for vulnerable populations like the elderly, children, or people without sufficient air conditioning.
As I close, it should be noted that not once did I mention a polar bear or the year 2080. These are "here and now" concerns.

Confidence in extreme weather events and linkages to climate change. National Academy of Science report

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It’s Time To Change The Climate Disaster Script. People Need Hope That Things Can Change

The Guardian*

The climate story must balance talk of urgency with hopeful and creative ideas if we are to inspire positive change 
‘The future of our planet – and how it is possible to save it – is a story worth telling.’ Extinction Rebellion activists in London. Photograph: Jamie Lowe/Courtesy of Extinction Rebellion 
“Hell  is coming,” one weather forecaster tweeted this week, warning not of further political turmoil but of the hottest heatwave in decades that’s advancing across continental Europe. Extreme weather events like this remind us that climate change is not a remote and distant threat – but a reality that is already taking an unacceptable human toll.
In recent months, Extinction Rebellion and the school climate strike have turned up the heat on the climate debate. They’ve both done an astonishing job of getting the climate change back on the public and political agendas. Their warnings of impending apocalypse, disruptive tactics and robust demands that others “tell the truth” about climate change have made huge waves. Parliament has declared a climate emergency. The Guardian has updated its own editorial guidelines to use language that accurately reflects the threat that climate change poses.
These demands and promises to tell the truth are based on a core premise: if people knew how bad this was we’d do differently. My organisation studies how we respond to and are shaped by the stories the we hear. I welcome the renewed energy within the climate movement – and the recognition of the power of language. But I fear we risk underplaying the part of “the truth” that could set us free.
Most people in the UK know climate change is a big problem. We understand it poses a grave threat to the future of our world. But we’re not trying to save ourselves – at least, we’re not trying hard enough.
Communications science offers some clues as to why we might be locked in this collective paralysis – somewhat able to see the problem but unable to deal with it. Our brains are hardwired to jump to conclusions without us noticing we’re doing it. When faced with serious and complex challenges such as climate change, we jump to “can’t be done” more readily than “let’s work through this problem and see the solutions”. While bleak, “nothing can be done” is a more rewarding conclusion because it’s quicker and easier to think.
The tendency to think fatalistically is fuelled by the stories we hear every day. The word “crisis” appears in our media dozens of times each week, appended to everything from poverty to patisseries, climate change to chick peas. It is background noise. Stating loudly that problems exist and have reached crisis point does not help us to move beyond said crises, especially if they are hard to understand and tough to tackle.
The stories we hear and tell matter. They shape how we understand the world and our part within it. Just as hearing migrants described in dehumanising ways flips a switch in our minds and creates automatic negative responses, a steady stream of wholly negative language and ideas creates mental shortcuts to despair and hopelessness.
Research is clear that to overcome fatalism and inspire change we must balance talk of urgency with talk of efficacy – the ability to get a job done. Too little urgency and “why bother?” is the default response. Too much crisis and we become overwhelmed, fatalistic or disbelieving – or a disjointed mixture of all three, which is where most of us get stuck when anyone talks about climate change.
We are all swayed by what we think other people think and what we see as normal. In post-war Rwanda a radio soap opera succeeded where other attempts to change relationships and interactions failed. By depicting positive relationships between opposing ethnic groups, the soap made these relationships seem normal and improved dynamics.
‘Extinction Rebellion and the schools climate strike have turned up the heat on the climate debate.’ Student climate protests in London. Photograph: Peter Marshall/Alamy Stock Photo
We need to change what’s normal and what’s perceived to be normal. And at the moment we think, and are constantly told, that most people don’t care enough. And the ones who do care are often not relatable to most people. We’re led to believe that inaction is the norm and that not much can be done. Upping the ante only by doing more to illustrate the scale of inaction and the high stakes doesn’t change this, it compounds it.
When Martin Luther King inspired a nation and the world he led with the dream, not the nightmare. When JFK persuaded the American public to support the Apollo programme he balanced the need to act with the ability to do so: “We choose to go to the moon in this decade and do the other things, not because they are easy, but because they are hard; because that goal will serve to organise and measure the best of our energies and skills, because that challenge is one that we are willing to accept, one we are unwilling to postpone, and one we intend to win.”
This is not the story being told about climate change. Instead we’re stuck in a climate disaster movie – and it’s not even a very good one. The threat is complex and can feel remote, but we’re told the chances of survival are slim. There are constant warnings but few heroes in sight. Our response is predictable: we switch off or we change the channel.
The climate story can evolve from its current emphasis on chastisement and detachment. The future of our planet – and how it is possible to save it – is a story worth telling. And retelling in ever more interesting and inspiring ways.
To help us avoid the worst effects of climate change we need a steady stream of stories that bring to life our capacity to dream big and get things done. We need high doses of creativity and ingenuity from a wide range of different voices. We need stories that show real life – and real life as it could be. We need to be able to see, feel and taste what we could do if leaders led and hope triumphed.

*Nicky Hawkins is a communications strategist for the FrameWorks Institute

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