16/07/2019

Defence Chief Sounds Warning On Surge Of Climate Change Refugees

SBS - AAP

The ADF warns there may be a rise in climate change refugees from the Pacific region, which could spark the need for more patrols off the north coast.
Defence chief Angus Campbell. AAP
Foreign Minister Marise Payne says Australia is focused on tackling climate change in the region, pointing to the signing of the Boe Declaration at the recent Pacific Islands Forum.
The declaration recognises climate change as the greatest risk to life and security in the Pacific.
Ground staff prepare Royal Australian Air Force C-130J Hercules aircraft. Defence bosses have warned of the rise of climate refugees.
"We are very focused on our engagement on climate in the region," she told ABC's Radio National on Monday.The government is also helping pay for projects in the Pacific through a multibillion-dollar fund.
Foreign Minister Marise Payne says the government is committed to tackling climate change. AAP
"Which will stream climate adaptation and resilience through its investment in energy, in transport, in communications and in water, reflects the priority we place on these issues," Senator Payne said.
The minister recently met Fiji's attorney-general and finance minister to look at financing infrastructure projects for the island nation.


David Attenborough appearing as a witness during the Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy Committee meeting in London. UK Parliament

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Defence Lacks 'Overarching Strategy' To Deal With Climate Change Conflict, Internal Notes Warn

ABC NewsMark Willacy

The ADF has already identified climate change as a challenge to Australia's future security. (RAAF/AAP: LAC Benjamin Evans)
Key points:
  • A briefing note warns there is no "overarching strategy" to address climate change risks
  • The Indo-Pacific region is projected to experience prolonged droughts and increased flooding from rising sea-levels
  • Defence admits that their operations could be impacted by ocean acidification and extreme weather
Australia's military has warned of a possible influx of climate refugees and an increased potential for conflict because of the effects of climate change.
Internal Australian Defence Force (ADF) briefing notes from last year, obtained by the ABC under Freedom of Information, also predict the military may be forced to increase patrols in Australia's northern waters to deal with "sea-borne migration" sparked by rising sea levels in the Indo-Pacific.
One document warns that climate change could "exacerbate the potential for conflict" and contribute to "state fragility and the undermining of economic development in our immediate region".
Former Defence Force chief Chris Barrie said Australia would be seen as the "land of opportunity" for many people affected by climate change.
"I once suggested to government we might be talking 100 million people," said Admiral Barrie, who is now a member of the Global Military Advisory Council on Climate Change.
"One-hundred million people when we're only 40 million people — you can get the enormity of this problem. Frankly, it would be beyond our resources."
The Defence Force admits in the documents it "does not currently have an overarching strategy or policy to specifically address the risks posed by climate change beyond the 2016 Defence White Paper".

Climate change 'may directly impact' Defence operations
The ADF has refused to release documents relating to the impact of sea level rises and flooding on defence training areas, telling the ABC that it is not in the national interest.
"Release of this information could reasonably be expected to cause damage to the ability of the Defence Force to remain an effective force as well as potentially providing an avenue through which foreign incursions could significantly impact our critical infrastructure," it said.

Climate change and the ADF
Australia's Defence Department has spelled out clearly to a Senate inquiry that climate change will create "concurrency pressures" for the Defence Force as a rise in disaster relief operations continues.

But one briefing note warns that the Indo-Pacific region is projected to experience challenges such as prolonged droughts and increased flooding from increased sea levels.
"Sea level rise, ocean acidification, increase in extreme temperatures and a forecast increase in intensity of bushfires and extreme weather events may directly impact Defence capabilities, personnel and equipment," it read.
The ADF has already identified climate change as a challenge to Australia's future security.
Its 2016 Defence White Paper predicted that Australia may be called on to conduct more humanitarian and disaster relief operations.
The internal notes obtained under freedom of information go further in warning about climate change risks.
"Further, an increase in illegal foreign fishing or sea-borne migration to Australia because of climate change effects may increase demands for Australian Defence Force patrols in Australia's north waters," the briefing note said.
Admiral Barrie said Australia was "wide open" for climate refugees, using Bangladesh as an example — its border with India is already being heavily patrolled by the Indian military.
"Bangladesh — a very populated country — runs out of fresh water and also has problems with sea level rise. Where will all the Bangladeshis go?" he said.

'Impacts are unavoidable'
The briefing documents include a report assessing the impact of sea level rises and flooding on "selected defence training areas and ranges".
The report, by global infrastructure consultancy Aecom, says the "warming of the climate system is unequivocal…atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide have increased to levels unprecedented in at least the last 800,000 years".
Ex-ADF chief Chris Barrie says Australia will be seen as the "land of opportunity" for many people affected by climate change. (AAP: Alan Porritt)
It states that the warming of Australia's mean air temperature could "reach 0.6 degrees Celsius to 5.1C depending on the emission scenarios".
The report cites such impacts as increased flooding, coastal erosion, bushfires and heatwaves.
"Even with considerable reductions in global greenhouse gas emissions, the inertia of the global climatic system means that many of these impacts are unavoidable."
Last year defence chiefs told the Senate's Foreign Affairs, Defence and Trade committee that rising sea levels and coastal erosion could damage military bases "in the short to medium term".
The committee's report warned that "climate change may also eventually contribute to greater irregular migration pressure in vulnerable countries to Australia's north, potentially becoming a substantial security threat to Australia".
A United States Department of Defence report released this year warned that more than two-thirds of the US military's "operationally critical installations" were under threat by climate change, with flooding being the biggest single risk.
Admiral Barrie said Defence had been considering the threat to their bases.
"I know what Defence has been doing is looking at some of its bases and things from an infrastructure development perspective and saying given sea level rise, given potential vulnerabilities our bases might have, doesn't it make sense to start thinking about moving some of those around," he said.
"I guess that's the bit that's been redacted [in the FOI documents] because no decisions have been made.
"I mean you don't have to look far beyond a map of sea level rise to realise just how serious this problem is."

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Defence Chief Sounds Climate Warning

AFRAngus Grigg

Australia’s Defence Force chief, Angus Campbell, has used a private speech to warn that China could take advantage of climate change to occupy abandoned islands in the Pacific.
While not naming China, General Campbell said if smaller islands were abandoned from rising sea levels it could open up the potential for territorial expansion.  Alex Ellinghausen
In previously unreported remarks General Campbell said the changing climate could inject new tension into an already contested region, suggesting the Morrison government is under pressure to show more leadership on the issue.
"They [Pacific Island nations] are calling for the rest of the world to take more ambitious and decisive action," he told an invitation-only forum, according to one person with knowledge of the event. "They want us to do more."
The speech in mid-June by the nation’s most senior soldier could leave the government open to criticism its lukewarm approach to combatting climate change is becoming a national security issue.
Prime Minister Scott Morrison has described the Pacific as “our patch” and made it his top foreign policy priority but he has been cautious about using Australia’s “step up” in the region for greater cooperation on climate change.This is despite Pacific leaders talking repeatedly of its importance amid rising sea levels and increasingly frequent natural disasters.
At the same time, China has sought to extend its influence into the Pacific through state-backed loans, greater spending on infrastructure and a larger naval presence.
While not naming China, General Campbell said the potential for territorial expansion could be opened up if smaller islands were abandoned as a result of rising sea levels.
"If other states see the opportunity to occupy uninhabited spaces then it could introduce new tension into our region," he said at the forum on climate change and national security.
Chinese dredging vessels building islands in the South China Sea. Reuters



China has shown itself willing to use land reclamation in disputed areas of the South China Sea to raise the level of islands previously submerged at high tide.

Relationship-changing issue
Its island building program, which began in December 2013, has seen Beijing build seven man-made islands and rapidly militarise them, despite earlier assurances to the contrary.
"If the predictions are correct it [climate change] will have serious ramifications for global security and serious ramifications for the ADF," General Campbell said, referring to the Australian Defence Force.
"The issue of climate change will influence our long-standing relationship with our Pacific Island neighbours.”
The Defence Department declined to elaborate on the remarks or provide further context.
"The comments were delivered extemporaneously and a transcript is not available," a spokesperson said.
General Campbell’s speech was delivered to 40 mid-level managers working on national security issues across the public service and its agencies.
The forum was organised by the Institute for Regional Security and held at Bowral’s Gibraltar Hotel, in the NSW Southern Highlands.
In promoting the closed conference it said climate change was “one of the many threats the national security community, and indeed the whole of government, will need to address in coming years”.
In his speech, General Campbell said Defence has been preparing for the impact of climate change “for years”.
He said Australians were living in the most “natural disaster-prone region in the world” and a further rise in global temperatures would likely put more pressure on the Defence Force's ability to respond.
Those who know the Defence Force chief said he was often provocative in closed-door sessions in an effort to make people think more broadly and creatively about issues.

Pacific priority
New Zealand Foreign Minister Winston Peters said Australia must listen to the Pacific. AP

The Pacific is a foreign policy priority for Mr Morrison, but rather than focus on climate change his trip last month to the Solomon Islands was based around economic development, infrastructure, labour mobility and security challenges.
Former Solomons prime minister Rick Houenipwela said it was “disappointing” climate change was not raised as “it’s a very, very important issue for us".
“In my constituency, two large communities that were on two islands five years ago are now no longer,” he said.
New Zealand Foreign Minister Winston Peters, who arrived in the Solomons shortly after Mr Morrison, said any country that wants to “step up” in the Pacific needed to take climate concerns seriously.
“If you want to be engaged here, the first thing you’ve got to do is come on a listening mission," he said.
“If that’s their number one concern, and it seriously is right across the Pacific, then maybe, just maybe, you should take them seriously.”
After his surprise election victory in May, Pacific leaders urged Mr Morrison to act on climate change.
The Prime Minister of Samoa, Tuilaepa Sailele Malielegaoi, said Australia had been lagging on the issue and needed to show more leadership.
“Climate change is the single most dangerous challenge facing planet Earth,” he told The Guardian.
Frank Bainimarama, the Prime Minister of Fiji, also urged Mr Morrison to act on climate change, which he called “the most urgent crisis facing not only the Pacific, but the world”.

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