14/08/2019

Australia Will Fund A $500m Climate Change Package For The Pacific, PM To Announce

The Guardian - 

Pacific leaders say they need more than money from Australia as they demand concrete actions to reduce emissions
Claire Anterea, co-founder of the Kiribati Climate Action Network, says the situation in the Pacific is ‘not about cash’. Photograph: Kate Lyons/The Guardian 
Scott Morrison will unveil a $500m climate change and oceans funding package for the Pacific region when he attends the Pacific Islands Forum leaders meeting in Tuvalu this week.
The funding package, which will use existing aid funds to help Pacific nations invest in renewable energy and climate and disaster resilience, will build on the $300m given by the government for that purpose in 2016-2020.
“The Pacific is our home, which we share as a family of nations. We’re here to work with our Pacific partners to confront the potential challenges they face in the years ahead,” said the prime minister.
The government also announced it had set aside $140m from the aid budget to encourage private sector investments in low-emission, climate-resilient projects for the Pacific and south-east Asia.
Morrison will face strong pressure from other Pacific leaders when he arrives in Tuvalu on Wednesday, many of whom have already issued warnings that they want commitments from Australia at this forum for concrete action to reduce emissions and to move away from coal-fired power.
On Monday, during a one-day climate conference hosted by the Tuvalu government, the Fijian prime minister, Frank Bainimarama, a global leader in the fight against climate change, issued a direct appeal to Australia to move away from coal-powered energy and asked its government “to more fully appreciate” the “existential threat” facing Pacific nations.
“Put simply, the case for coal as an energy source cannot continue to be made if every nation is to meet the net zero emission target by 2050 that has been set by the UN secretary general and every other responsible leader of the climate struggle,” said Bainimarama, who is a former president of the UN’s leading climate body COP (Conference of the Parties).
The forum is being hosted in Tuvalu, a country of 11,000 people located three hours north of Fiji, which is at serious risk from rising sea levels as a result of climate change. Climate change is at the heart of this year’s forum, from the moment leaders arrive at Funafuti airport and are greeted by the children of Tuvalu, who sit submerged in water, in a moat built around the model of an island, singing: “Save Tuvalu, save the world.”
Speaking to Guardian Australia ahead of the forum, the prime minister of Tuvalu, Enele Sopoaga, said he had concerns about Australia’s coal policy and its use of carryover credits as a means of reducing emissions. He said the positive relationship with Australia could change if the future of his people was not taken seriously.
“I hope we can be more understanding that the people of Tuvalu and small island countries are already submerged, are already going underwater,” Sopoaga said.
“If our friend Australia does not show them any regard, any respect, it is a different thing, we cannot be partner with that thinking. I certainly hope we do not come to that juncture to say we cannot go on talking about partnerships regardless of whether it is [the Australian government’s Pacific] Step-Up or [New Zealand’s Pacific] Reset, while you keep pouring your coal emissions into the atmosphere that is killing my people and drowning my people into the water.”
Simon Bradshaw, Oxfam Australia’s climate advocacy lead who is in Tuvalu for the forum, said that while this money would be welcomed by Pacific leaders, it would not mean the Australian government was off the hook when it came to reducing emissions.
“Australia couldn’t come here empty-handed, they were going to have to bring something, but a new commitment of climate finance ... that’s not enough,” said Bradshaw.
“It’s one part of the equation, it’s an important part, but really it carries no meaning if it’s not accompanied by new strong commitments from Australia to drive down its emissions, its carbon pollution, to move beyond coal, to play its part in limiting warming to one and a half degrees, which we’ve heard repeatedly is crucial to survival in the region.”
Bradshaw said that Pacific leaders had never been as strident in their calls for urgent action to reduce emissions and preserve their homes and islands as they have been in the lead-up to this forum.
“They’re absolutely clear that Australia’s rising emissions, our coal exports are threatening their very survival,” he said. “From all the talk we’ve heard this week, whereas this commitment will be welcomed, it’s certainly not going to quieten the concerns of Pacific leaders who have been very clear that they want Australia to look beyond coal, to move to 100% renewable energy and to really appreciate the sorts of challenges they face here.”
Claire Anterea, co-founder of the Kiribati Climate Action Network, an advocacy group based in Kiribati, which like Tuvalu, is one of the small island states most at risk due to rising sea levels, said: “Our situation in Kiribati and in the Pacific, it’s not about cash, it’s not about giving lots of money, if Australia doesn’t do actions within their own country,” she said.
“Australia needs to do more, not just give money to solve the problem. Money is not the solution for the impacts of climate change. Our Kiribati government is working toward adaptation, but my worry is how long are we going to adapt? Adapt forever? I don’t think that is a possible solution for us, there will be a time when adaptation is not going to work.”

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Australia Must Listen To Its Pacific Neighbours On Climate Crisis

ABC News - Raijeli Nicole*

Tuvalu's very existence is threatened by the climate crisis. (mrlins: www.flickr.com)
In the Pacific, the climate crisis is a matter of survival for our most vulnerable nations.
While Pacific peoples are resourceful and resilient, we depend on the cooperation of our bigger neighbours — Australia and New Zealand.
Pacific governments, civil society organisations and local communities are working with great determination to meet this defining challenge of our times. We have made bold national commitments, played a leading role in international negotiations, and are working to build the resilience of our communities in a rapidly changing world.
Right now, Australia's rising pollution and burgeoning fossil fuel exports are undermining our future.
The drowning nation that's
looking for Noah's Ark
Kiribati's President has a 20-year plan to turn the country into the next Dubai or Singapore — an ambitious project for a nation that struggles to provide safe drinking water and electricity.

The toll is clear on Tuvalu
In Tuvalu, where Pacific Island Forum leaders will meet this week, the human toll and grave injustice of the climate crisis is clear for all to see. Nowhere does the land rise more than a few metres above sea level. At some points, the main island is barely 20 metres wide. Sometimes, waves wash right over the island from the ocean to the lagoon, destroying houses and crops and contaminating scarce water supplies.
It is not only people's homes, food and water that are at stake. Put simply, Tuvalu's very existence is threatened by the climate crisis.
People fear a loss of culture, of ancestral connection to their land and ocean, and even their very sovereignty should they be forced from their homes and land. Most do not see migration as an option in the face of the climate crisis.
Rather, we must do everything possible to drive down global climate pollution, adapt to the changes that can no longer be avoided, and uphold people's right to remain where they are.
Scott Morrison's first overseas visit as PM was to the Pacific, but the region wants to see more action. (AAP: Darren England)
Australia's actions tell a different story
Here in the Pacific, the Australian Government's recklessness in the face of the climate crisis — in full knowledge of its implications for our people — is hard to fathom.Last year, Australia joined all members of the Pacific Islands Forum in endorsing the Boe Declaration on Regional Security.
The declaration reaffirms climate change as the single biggest threat to the livelihoods, security and wellbeing of the people of the Pacific and members' commitment to the Paris Agreement.
Which country gives the
most aid to the Pacific?
The answer might surprise you, writes Stephen Dziedzic.
But Australia's actions tell a different story. In the year following that historic declaration, Australia's emissions have continued to climb and the Government has approved the opening up of the Galilee coal basin. It has stated it will not make further contributions to the Green Climate Fund — a critical source of support to vulnerable communities — and has refused thus far to heed the UN Secretary-General's call for all countries to strengthen their commitments to the Paris Agreement before 2020. 
It intends to further compromise its already-very-modest contribution by using "carry-over" from the Kyoto period to meet its 2030 target — a move ruled out by almost every other country and which undermines the spirit of cooperation and ambition on which the agreement depends.
Make no mistake — such actions are harming Australia's friendships with the region, just as they are risking all of our futures.

Our message to Australia is simple
In October last year, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change laid out, in alarming terms, the consequences of failing to limit global heating to 1.5 degrees Celsius, and the scale and pace of action necessary to achieve this goal.
Global climate pollution must be roughly halved over the next decade and reach zero before mid-century. The Pacific, despite contributing almost nothing to global climate pollution and with few resources to respond to this crisis, is doing its part. Our message has been simple: if we can do it, so can you.
Mapping China's aid program
Explore this interactive map produced by the Lowy Institute showing the extent of China's aid in the South Pacific.
As Prime Minister Scott Morrison heads to Tuvalu, we urge the Australian Government, and all Australians, to listen to those on the frontlines of the climate crisis.
This year's Pacific Islands Forum Leaders' Meeting marks the start of a crucial 18-month window that will culminate at the 26th Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP26) in 2020.
It comes ahead of September's United Nations Climate Summit, where all countries are expected to renew and strengthen their commitments to the Paris Agreement. Decisions taken over this period will profoundly affect the lives and prospects of communities worldwide, and in particular the peoples of the Pacific, far into the future.
For Australia to continue down its current path risks global heating in excess of 3 degrees and undermining all the progress of tackling climate change and poverty in recent decades.
This week's meeting also comes at a time when great powers, from China to the United Kingdom, are stepping up their engagement with the Pacific.
For any country to be a trusted member of the Pacific family, and with that retain the ability to help shape the region's future, they must respond to the number one priority of Pacific Island countries— climate change.

*Raijeli Nicole is regional director of Oxfam in the Pacific.

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What Climate Tipping Points Should We Be Looking Out For?

The Conversation - 

Melt pond on the Greenland ice sheet. NASA / Michael Studinger
 The concept of a “tipping point” – a threshold beyond which a system shifts to a new state – is becoming a familiar one in discussions of the climate.
Examples of tipping points are everywhere: a glass falling off a table upon tilting; a bacterial population hitting a level where it pushes your body into fever; the boiling point of water, or a cube of ice being thrown into warm water, where it rapidly melts.
The ice cube is a poignant example, because scientists now fear that West Antarctica’s ice sheets are also heading towards irreversible melting.
Likewise, the recent discovery of deep canyons beneath the Greenland ice sheet raises concerns regarding its stability.
The history of the atmosphere, oceans and ice caps indicates that, once changes in the energy level which drive either warming or cooling reach a critical threshold, irreversible tipping points ensue.
An example is a process called “albedo flip”, where a small amount of melting creates a film of water on top of the ice. The water absorbs infrared radiation and melts more ice, leading to runaway melting of ice sheet. The opposite process occurs where the freezing of water results in reflection of radiation to space, leading to cooling and freezing of more water.
Other examples are abrupt warming episodes during glacial states, termed “interstadials”, for example the “Dansgaard-Oeschger” warming cycles which occurred during the last glacial period between about 100,000 and 20,000 thousand years ago, which caused large parts of the North Atlantic Ocean to undergo temperature changes of several degrees Celsius within short periods. Other examples are points at which a glacial state ends abruptly to be replaced by rapid glacial termination.

Over the threshold
An increase in global temperatures can lead to a threshold representing the culmination and synergy of multiple processes, such as release of methane from permafrost or polar ocean sediments, retreating sea ice and ice sheets, warming oceans, collapse of ocean current systems such as the North Atlantic Thermohaline Current and – not least – large scale fires.
A major consequence of warming of ice sheets is the increase in supply of cold fresh melt water to adjacent oceans, such as the abrupt cooling of the North Atlantic Ocean inducing rapid freezing events (stadials), as represented by the “Younger dryas” event (12,900-11,700 years ago), or the rapid melting of Laurentian ice cap about 8500 years ago and related abrupt cooling events in Europe and North America.
Satellite images of Greenland, July 8 and July 12, 2012. White shows remaining ice; red shows melt; pink shows probable melt; grey shows ice-free; dark grey means no data. NASA
The question is whether the post-18th century global warming trend may culminate in a major tipping point or, alternatively, is represented by an increase in disparate extreme weather events, as are currently occurring around the world.
A potential indicator of such tipping point may be represented by a collapse of the North Atlantic Thermal Circulation, which would lead to a sharp, albeit transient, temperature drop in the North Atlantic Ocean, North America and Western Europe. Evidence for a weakening of the North Atlantic deep water circulation by about 30% between 1957 and 2004 has been reported in Nature as well as by other researchers.
The question of tipping points is of critical importance since it affects future climate projections and adaptation plans. In this regard the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report leaves the question of tipping points open.

The crucial question
So how likely is the current climate change trend to reach a tipping point, and if so of what magnitude and on what time scale?
General circulation climate models which attempt to delineate overall future climate trends are limited in their capacity to predict the precise timing, location and magnitude of abrupt climate and weather events with confidence.
Since the 19th century the rise in the energy level of the atmosphere has reached a level of more than 3 degrees Celsius when the masking effects of sulphur aerosols are discounted. This degree of temperature rise is just under the energy rise level associated with the last glacial termination between about 16,000 and 10,000 years ago.
The atmosphere-ocean system continued to warm following the peak El-Nino event of 1998. Most of the warming occurred in the oceans, whose mean temperature has risen by about 0.3C since 1950.
The current rise in atmospheric CO2 of about 2 parts per million CO2/year, reaching 401.85 parts per million at the Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii in May 2014, exceeds rates observed in the geological record of the last 65 million years.
An atmospheric CO2 level of 400 parts per million is estimated for the Miocene, about 16 million years ago, when mean temperatures have reached 3 to 4 degrees Celsius above those of pre-industrial temperatures. Economically available fossil fuel reserves, if used, are capable of returning the atmosphere to tropical state such as existed during the early to mid-Eocene prior to the formation of the Antarctic ice sheet about 32 million years ago.
The evidence indicates that, since the mid-1980s, the Earth is shifting from a climate state that favoured land cultivation since about 7000 years ago to a climate state characterised by mean global temperatures about 2-3 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.
At this level, extreme weather events would render large parts of the continents unsuitable for agriculture. The accelerated melting of the Greenland and west Antarctic ice sheets could lead to conditions akin to those of the Pliocene, before 2.6 million years ago, when sea level were between 5 and 40 metres higher than at present, as estimated by the US Geological Survey.
The evidence indicates the climate may be tracking toward – or is already crossing – tipping points whose precise nature and timing remain undefined, depending on the extent to which ice sheet melting is retarded due to hysteresis. The increase in frequency and intensity of extreme weather events around the globe may represent a shift in state of the atmosphere-ocean system. There is no alternative to a global effort at deep cuts of carbon emissions coupled with fast-tracked CO2 sequestration.
As Professor Joachim Schellnhuber, Germany’s climate advisor and Director of the Potsdam Climate Impacts Institute, has said:
We’re simply talking about the very life support system of this planet.
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