Climate Change: 'Invest $1.8 Trillion To Adapt'

BBC - Victoria Gill

Investments - like the purchase of a water pump for irrigation - can provide a sustainable farming income for farmers like Sanfo Karim in Burkina Faso. Ollivier Girard/CIFOR 

Investing $1.8 trillion over the next decade - in measures to adapt to climate change - could produce net benefits worth more than $7 trillion.
This is according to a global cost-benefit analysis setting out five adaptation strategies.
The analysis was carried out by the Global Commission on Adaptation - a group of 34 leaders in politics, business and science.
They say the world urgently needs to be made more "climate change resilient".
The commission, led by former UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon, World Bank chief executive Kristalina Georgieva and Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates, argues that it is an urgent moral obligation of richer countries to invest in adaptation measures that will benefit the world.

Planting and restoring mangrove forests provides valuable natural protection for vulnerable coastlines. Jelajah Pangandaran

The report says those most affected by climate change "did least to cause the problem - making adaptation a human imperative".


Five things the world needs to invest in to be "climate change resilient"

Its primary aim is to put climate change adaptation on to the political agenda around the world. And to do this, it sets out "concrete solutions" and an economic plan.
There are, it says, five things the world should invest in over the next decade:

1. Warning systems: For the vulnerable island and coastal communities in particular, early warnings about storms, very high tides and other extreme weather can save lives. Better weather monitoring and a simple app for fishing communities in the Cook Islands, for example, allows them to plan according to the sea conditions
2. Infrastructure: Building better roads, buildings and bridges to suit the changing climate. One project in New York City has set out to paint rooftops white - a heat-reflecting strategy to cool buildings and neighbourhoods
3. Improving dry-land agriculture: Something as simple as helping farmers to switch to more drought-resistant varieties of coffee crop could protect livelihoods and prevent hunger
4. Restoring and protecting mangroves: Underwater mangrove forests protect about 18 million people from coastal flooding, but they're being wiped out by development. Restoration projects could protect vulnerable communities from storms and boost fisheries' productivity
5. Water: Protecting water supplies - and making sure that water's not being wasted - will be vital in a changing climate

Each of these investments, the commission says, would contribute to what they call a "triple dividend"- avoiding future losses, generating positive economic gains through innovation, and delivering social and environmental benefits. It is that dividend that the report has valued at $7.1tn (£5.7tn).

Plant experts in Uganda are improving agricultural livelihoods in the country by introducing farmers to crop varieties with better drought and disease resistance. Georgina Smith / CIAT

Flagship Report

Commenting on the report's findings, Mr Ban said climate change "doesn't respect borders".
"It's an international problem that can only be solved with co-operation and collaboration, across borders and worldwide. It is becoming increasingly clear that in many parts of the world, our climate has already changed and we need to adapt with it."
The report calls for "revolutions" in understanding, planning and finance - to "ensure that climate impacts, risks and solutions are factored into decision-making at all levels". Turning its recommendations into action will be the next endeavour; there will be a further announcement about adaptation plans at the UN Climate Summit in September.

Links

• Global Center on Adaptation
• World 'Gravely' Unprepared For Effects Of Climate Crisis – Report 
• Climate change: Five ways to be resilient
• 12 years to save the planet? Make that 18 months
• Big lifestyle changes needed to cut emissions
• Climate change is 'shrinking winter'
• The long history of solar power
  

More Than Climate Change Driving Queensland Fires, Explain Climatologists

ABC News - Ben Deacon | Penny Timms

The negative Southern Annular Mode affecting Australia is set to make conditions difficult for firefighters. (Supplied: Andrew Bedggood)

The record drought has combined with a record warm winter to fuel this year's grim fire outlook, according to climatologists and bushfire experts.
"The forests are in a state where even a small ignition source can cause major problems," warned Richard Thornton from the Bushfire and Natural Hazards Cooperative Research Centre.
"And that will only get worse as we move into summer and things dry out even further."
Andrew Watkins from the Bureau of Meteorology says the southern half of Australia has experienced the driest January to August on record.
"When we take into account temperatures as well, which have been highest on record for winter in some of those bushfire areas, we've had high evaporation," he said.
"We have very dry soils and dry fuel as well."

There is a trend in southern Australia where the number of dangerous bushfire days are increasing. (Supplied: Bureau of Meteorology)

According the BoM spring outlook, the dry conditions have been driven by cooler than average waters in the Indian ocean, which meteorologists refer to as a positive Indian Ocean Dipole, or IOD.
Pacific ocean temperatures are not driving Australia's weather right now, with no El Nino or La Nina expected to develop in the coming months.
There is another, less well-known climate driver behind the strong westerly winds fanning the flames.
"We have a period of negative SAM (Southern Annular Mode) affecting us now, as it has on and off for a while," Dr Watkins said.
When the SAM is negative, strong westerly winds like the ones experienced at the weekend reach further north than normal.

What's driving the fire season ahead?
The warm, dry conditions that have led to the early fires are predicted to continue for the rest of the year.

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What to do if bushfire threatens

ABC Emergency has sourced advice from official agencies on how to plan for a bushfire, including preparing a survival kit.

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"Unfortunately, the odds are high of having above normal daytime temperatures right through at least until January," Dr Watkins said.
"And likewise with rainfall, there are increased odds of drier than normal conditions for much of eastern Australia right through until January as well."
On top of this, the recent sudden stratospheric warming over Antarctica is predicted to keep SAM negative for the rest of the year, reinforcing the warm, dry conditions in New South Wales and southern Queensland.

Climate change trends
"Climate change is playing its role here, but it's not the cause of these fires," Dr Thornton said.
"We're seeing a degree on average higher temperatures than the long-term average."
Climate change expert Andrew King from Melbourne University agrees.
"It's quite clear that the type of hot weather associated with bushfires is becoming more frequent and more intense and it's also more likely to occur earlier on in the warm season," he said.

Darker red and yellow colours show an increase in the length and intensity of the fire weather season since 1978. (Supplied: Bureau of Meteorology)

But the climatologist said the story is more complicated when it comes to rainfall.
"There's not really a very clear trend," Dr King said.
"Overall, we don't really see a clear trend towards more dry conditions or more wet conditions [in southern Queensland].
"We have really highly variable rainfall in eastern Australia, linked with things like El Nino and La Nina, and also individual weather systems."
But he says further south, drought is linked to climate change trends.

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The science of bushfires

How does a bushfire begin and spread, and what happens to the environment once it's moved through?

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"In the south west of Australia, and in parts of Victoria, there is a decreasing trend in rainfall. Which obviously worsens bushfire conditions, overall, on average."
And when it comes to increased westerly winds like the ones that fanned this week's fires, he said climate science predicts less strong winds.
"The general climate trend is towards more positive SAM conditions, which means that we see those weather systems moving further south away from Australia and associated with that, we wouldn't see the same frequency of westerly winds that we've seen recently in New South Wales and Queensland."

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What do we really think about
taking climate action?

A majority of Australians believe climate change is driving more droughts and floods, and that higher power prices are the result of "excessive profit margins".

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Fire danger on the rise
The Bureau of Meteorology's state of the climate report from last year showed the overall fire danger index had increased over the past 40 years over much of southern Australia.
Dr Thornton expects this trend to continue.
"What climate change will do is it will increase the frequency, or the return rate if you like, of really bad fire weather days," he said.
"So the days like where you had Ash Wednesday or black Saturday, the return period for those sorts of days, will come back and will become shorter.
"So we really need to start thinking about how do we prepare properties better for that?
"How do we make sure that communities stay safe?"



Links

• Australian Flammability Monitoring System
• Queensland's bushfire devastation captured in pictures
• The red-hot question after destructive hinterland fire — can rainforests burn?
• Injured koala and her joey Rupert among hundreds of animals rescued from fires
• Murray-Darling Basin in 'most severe' two-to-three year drought conditions in 120 years of records, BOM says
• Rare weather event over Antarctica driving Australia's hot, dry outlook

Extreme Heat A Far Greater Threat For Most Australians Than Extreme Cold Weather, Study Finds

Sydney Morning Herald - Peter Hannam

Extreme heat is a far greater threat for most Australians than extreme cold weather, with the risks falling largely on the elderly.
Research published on Tuesday in the Climatic Change journal examined the deaths of 1.717 million Australians between 2006-2017. It found about 2 per cent were attributable to heat, while "close to zero" were caused by cold days, said Thomas Longden, a senior researcher at the University of Technology, Sydney, and author of the paper.

"We're going to get some very extreme events that really may start pushing people ... over a threshold": study author Thomas Longden, a senior researcher at UTS. Credit: Ryan Stuart 

Dr Longden's research took aim at a 2015 study in The Lancet that examined 384 locations globally - including Brisbane, Melbourne and Sydney - and found a warming world would generally be beneficial, claiming mortality from cold was greater than hot weather.
That study used data from 1988-2009 and was based on a so-called minimum mortality temperature. In Melbourne's case, some 90 per cent of its days were treated as cold, based on a 22.4 degree average daily temperature.
"It such a bizarre result to find more cold deaths to heat in Brisbane, Melbourne and Sydney," Dr Longden said.
His study used median daily temperatures in six climate zones across the country, and found 2 per cent of mortality in Sydney was associated with heat and a near-zero linkage to cold weather. Melbourne showed similar results.
Only in the climate zone characterised by mild to warm summers and cold winters - Tasmania and the alpine regions of NSW, Victoria and the ACT - were more deaths associated with cold than heat, he said.
In regions with hot, humid summers - such as Townsville, Cairns and Darwin - as many as 9 per cent of deaths were related to heat.
Scientists expect climate change will create longer, more intense and more frequent heatwaves for much of Australia, a trend that would exacerbate the risks of heat-related deaths.
"In the future we're going to get some very extreme events that really may start pushing people, who have not had an issue in the past, over a threshold," Dr Longden said. "Hospitalisation, ambulance call outs and deaths can occur after that."
The elderly, in particular, will face more pressure on their health as temperatures rise, Dr Longden said.
Separately, the Australia Institute on Tuesday released its Climate Of The Nation report, which has tracked attitudes to climate change since 2007.
The survey of 1960 Australians aged 18 years and older by YouGov Galaxy was taken between July 25 and August 1. It found 77 per cent of respondents agreed the climate was changing, matching the highest level recorded in 2016. Some 81 per cent said there were concerned the shift would result in more droughts and floods, up from 78 per cent in 2018.
Other findings included 78 per cent of respondents saying they were worried climate change would lead to water shortages in Australian cities, up 11 percentage points in two years. More than two-thirds backed "an orderly phase-out of coal" and a similar ratio supported Australia reaching net-zero emissions by 2050.
“Australians are rightly concerned about more extreme heat waves, droughts and bushfires, and they want the Morrison government to show leadership on climate change and do more to prepare for the impacts that are already locked in," said Zali Steggall, the independent MP for Warringah, who launched the report.

Links

• Heatwave-related deaths influenced by prior acclimatisation to warmth
• Australia's greenhouse emissions set new seven-year highs on gas boom
• 'Silicon Valley of solar': NSW to set interim carbon reduction targets
• Why your lights will stay on without Liddell's coal power
• 'Silicon Valley of solar': NSW to set interim carbon reduction targets

Australians Increasingly Fear Climate Change Related Drought And Extinctions

The Guardian - Katharine Murphy

Climate of the Nation survey shows growing support for net zero emissions by 2050 and rapid phase-out of coal power

Drought-hit land 40km north-east of Coonabarabran in NSW. More than 80% of Australians are worried about drought and floods linked to climate change. Photograph: Brook Mitchell

Australians are increasingly concerned about droughts and floods, extinctions and water shortages associated with climate change, and most people think all levels of government aren’t doing enough to combat the effects of global warming, according to new research.
The annual Climate of the Nation survey, which has been tracking Australian attitudes to climate change for more than a decade, finds concern about droughts and flooding has risen from 74% of the survey in 2017 to 81% in 2019.
Concern about climate-related extinctions – an issue highlighted dramatically in May when a major scientific report warned that a million species across the world faced extinction – has risen from 71% in 2017 to 78% in the 2019 survey, while concern about water shortages, an issue front of mind as a consequence of Australia’s prolonged drought, has increased from 67% to 78%.
Public sentiment about phasing out coal has also shifted in the past few years. In 2017 65% of the survey thought coal power stations should be phased out gradually to help manage the costs of the transition, but the percentage has dropped to 52% in 2019. The percentage of people believing the shift from coal to clean energy needs to be accelerated, even if the transition costs more in the short term, has increased from 19% in 2017 to 26% in 2019.
There has also been an increase in the percentage of people in the survey arguing that Australia should completely end coal-fired power generation within the next 10 years. In 2017 30% of the survey agreed, and in 2019 39% agreed.
In Queensland – where the future of coal was a significant issue in the May federal election – 49% of the sample thought coal power stations should be phased out gradually and 24% said as soon as possible.
Just over half the national sample, 51%, said they would support a moratorium on new coalmines (including 49% of Liberal voters and 53% of Labor voters).
While parliamentary Nationals are the most vocal supporters of the coal industry, the survey suggests their voting constituency is split, with 48% supporting a moratorium, 40% opposing it and 12% undecided. It’s a similar picture for One Nation, another vocal supporter of coal in Canberra – 41% of One Nation supporters supported a moratorium, 36% opposed one, and 22% undecided.
The annual survey, conducted by YouGov/Galaxy, has assessed attitudes to climate change since 2007. The now defunct Climate Institute began the series, and it is now managed by the progressive thinktank the Australia Institute. The survey is national and it has a margin of error of plus or minus 2%.
The research will be launched in Canberra on Tuesday by the independent who unseated Tony Abbott in the May election, Zali Steggall, in part on a platform of climate action.
“Australians are rightly concerned about more extreme heatwaves, droughts and bushfires and they want the Morrison government to show leadership on climate change and do more to prepare for the impacts that are already locked in,” Steggall said.
“This latest report shows that Australians support far more ambitious climate and energy policies than the federal government is currently delivering.”
The 2019 survey found that 77% of respondents agreed that climate change is happening (equal to the percentage in 2016), and 61% said warming is caused by humans. For context, 64% of the sample agreed climate change was happening in 2012, 19% weren’t sure and 17% said it wasn’t happening. Now it is 77% agreement, 11% unsure and 12% said it isn’t happening.
Just under half the sample, 48%, said climate change is already causing more heatwaves and hot days – a nine-point increase in a year – and just over half the sample (51%, up from 43% a year ago) thought climate change is behind the melting of the polar ice caps.
More than half the sample, 64%, wanted Australia to adopt a target of net zero emissions by 2050, and 56% of the sample wanted Australia to limit global warming to 1.5C.
The survey indicates nuclear energy, which has been revived as a prospect by some Morrison government MPs, remains divisive with voters. Only one in five put nuclear in their top three preferred energy sources, and 59% of the survey put nuclear in their bottom three.
Breaking down the responses by demographics, women were more worried about climate change than men and, speaking generally, young people were more worried than respondents aged over 55.
Looking at perceptions in the city versus perceptions in regional Australia, people in metropolitan areas were more likely to agree that coal plants should be closed and replaced with cleaner alternatives (64% to 55%), and city dwellers were more likely to support a moratorium on new mines than regional Australians (55% to 46%).
People in the regions were more aware than their city counterparts that Australia is a signatory to the Paris agreement (62% to 57%) and more likely to blame the energy companies for high power prices (64% to 53%).
The climate and energy director at the Australia Institute, Richie Merzian, said of a looming UN climate summit in New York: “The public want to see the Australian government take a leadership role when it comes to global action on climate change.”

Links

• Australian Medical Association declares climate change a health emergency
• ‘Dead things everywhere’: is Australia facing the summer from hell?
• Glencore pressured to withdraw from new coalmines to prove climate change commitment
• Court rules out Hunter Valley coalmine on climate change grounds
• Majority of Australians support phasing out coal power by 2030, survey finds
• Rio Tinto faces $84bn shareholder revolt over membership of Minerals Council
• NSW court to hear 'landmark' challenge to coalmine over climate change impact
• Why coal-fired power handouts would be an attack on climate and common sense
• Climate change challenge to Gina Rinehart’s Alpha mine dismissed by court