New York Times
Experts in energy and environmental fields weigh in on the need for an urgent transition to alternative energy.
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| James O'Brien |
As
energy demand rises around the globe, so does concern about climate
change. The science seems clear: Ninety-seven percent or more of
scientists active in the field are convinced the climate has been
warming over the past century, the pace of warming is accelerating and
human activities — particularly the burning of coal, oil and other
fossil fuels — are a primary cause.
Many
of these scientists also concur that the best option to mitigate the
potentially catastrophic consequences of climate change is to reduce the
use of fossil fuels and speed up the transition to renewable forms of
energy, such as solar and wind.
We
asked experts in the energy and environmental fields whether they concur
on the need for an urgent transition to alternative energy. And if so,
how the energy industry can make that happen quickly enough to matter.
We also asked energy executives how their companies would navigate such a
fundamental change. The responses have been edited and condensed.
May Boeve
Executive director, 350.org
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| May Boeve |
Rapidly
phasing out fossil fuels is critical to address the climate crisis
because fossil fuels are the biggest driver of the climate crisis.
Reports from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change based on the
work of thousands of scientists have confirmed there are no scenarios in
which we both keep digging out fossil fuels and keep the world from a
climate disaster. We must act now, and decisively, to switch to
alternative sources of energy.
What
little has been done is not nearly enough. Research published by the
Stockholm Environment Institute shows that despite all the rhetoric
about transitioning to renewable energy, the world is on track to
produce 120 percent more fossil fuels than would be consistent with
limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, the goal set by the
Paris Agreement in 2015.
I want to be
clear: the coal, gas, and oil industries cannot make this happen on
their own; markets are not going to get us out of the hole they got us
in. We need the political will to fundamentally rethink some of the
underlying assumptions about how we organize our societies. This is why
we call for a global Green New Deal.
We
can do it because people want it and are increasingly demanding it.
Technology is an important part of the coming transition, and so is
finance. But what is going to make it happen is public outrage, public
imagination, and public inspiration.
Sean Comey
Senior adviser, corporate issues, Chevron
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| Sean Comey |
We believe climate change is real and human activity contributes to it. We recognize the findings of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (a United Nations research agency) that the use of fossil fuels contributes to increases in global temperatures. Chevron shares the concerns of governments and the public about climate change.
At
the same time, the International Energy Agency (I.E.A.) projects global
energy demand will rise more than 25 percent by 2040, driven by
population growth and rising incomes. Even in the I.E.A.’s most
aggressive low-carbon scenario, oil and natural gas will meet
approximately half of that demand. Chevron has responded by establishing
targets for emissions intensity — the amount of pollution created per
unit of energy produced — and tying these goals to employees’ pay.
Chevron also is lowering its carbon intensity at the lowest cost,
increasing its use of renewable energy to support its business and
investing in promising technologies.
Reducing
greenhouse gas emissions is a global issue that requires global action.
We support a price on carbon as a possible way to reduce greenhouse gas
emissions by the end user, but governments must decide which pricing
system is best for their citizens. We work with governments to address
potential climate change risks while continuing to produce affordable,
reliable and ever cleaner energy.
Bob Dudley
Group chief executive, BP
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Bob Dudley
|
The
world is on an unsustainable path. We need a faster transition to a
low-carbon energy system and a net-zero-emissions world. The last thing I
want is a delay today that results in an abrupt, precipitous
course-correction tomorrow. What’s good for the world is good for BP.
And
what’s more, the oil and gas industry has the scale, expertise and
resources to help the energy transition happen. This year alone BP will
spend around $750 million on low-carbon activities, including wind,
solar and electric-vehicle charging.
But
a growing, more prosperous world needs growing quantities of energy,
and that includes oil and gas. Today, one billion people lack the energy
they need, and renewables alone can’t meet those needs. In fact, the
International Energy Agency projects the world could still need nearly
70 million barrels of oil a day in 2040 — and that’s in a scenario
consistent with the Paris Agreement goal of keeping any rise in global
temperatures well below 2 degrees Celsius. Of course, how we use that
oil and gas will change. Electric cars don’t burn petroleum, but they do
use plastic in their construction and oil in their lubrication. And gas
can be decarbonized.
Energy companies
like BP have a bright future because we are evolving to serve the
energy transition. But it’s a dual challenge; we need to reduce
emissions while increasing energy. That’s the goal I have set for BP.
Mark Elder
Director, Research and Publications, Institute for Global Environmental Strategies
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| Mark Elder |
Obviously
the world must reduce its reliance on fossil fuels and accelerate its
transition to renewable forms of energy. Who wouldn’t agree? Is it
necessary to ask? Soon it may become clear that scientists were too
cautious about the speed and magnitude of global heating and its
consequences.
Arctic and Antarctic ice
is melting much faster than expected, so rising sea levels will
threaten coastal cities. The permafrost in Alaska, Canada and Siberia
has melted nearly enough to release vast quantities of methane, greatly
accelerating global heating. Fossil fuels, including natural gas, need
to be rapidly phased out to minimize the worst effects of global
heating.
Utility-scale renewable
energy combined with battery storage is now technically feasible and
economically competitive with fossil fuels in many cases, so many
electric utilities are already shifting to renewables. Fossil fuels
cannot compete without large government subsidies and assistance. Fossil
fuel producers face enormous financial losses as oil and gas reserves
and coal mines lose their value, becoming stranded assets.
These
companies could shift their focus to ecosystem restoration to repair
the damage caused by fossil fuel extraction, possibly with government
assistance. It might not offset the losses from stranded assets, but it
could provide replacement jobs for the workers. Wind turbines could be
erected on old oil drilling platforms. Carbon capture and storage uses
large amounts of energy and is very costly, so it probably will not be
feasible. Investors are advised to steer clear of companies with large
fossil fuel operations.
Nat Keohane
Senior vice president, climate, the Environmental Defense Fund
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| Nat Keohane |
Climate
change is an urgent crisis that’s damaging our economy, our planet, and
our children’s future. To prevent the worst impacts, we must achieve a
100 percent clean economy in the United States and other advanced
nations by 2050 at the latest, and in the rest of the world soon after. A
100 percent clean economy means we produce no more climate pollution
than we can remove.
Achieving this
ambitious goal will require policies that guarantee steep reductions in
emissions, drive massive investment in clean energy and find ways
through nature and technology to remove carbon from the atmosphere. The
best science says that we must do all these things.
The
reality is that solving this fast enough will take action from
Congress. The core policy should be an enforceable, declining limit on
climate pollution to ensure that we meet the 100 percent clean goal,
achieved through a flexible, market-based approach that creates
incentives for businesses and entrepreneurs to find the fastest and
cheapest ways to get there. We also need to invest in innovation, reduce
barriers to clean energy and energy efficiency, support more resilient
farms and forests, and ensure a just and equitable transition for
communities throughout America.
Mark Little
President and chief executive, Suncor
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| Mark Little |
Reliable
and affordable energy is critical to our quality of life, and we will
need to responsibly harness all forms of energy if we are to meet
growing global demand and simultaneously tackle the challenge of climate
change.
The choice is not between
fossil fuels and renewable energy, but rather, how do we accelerate the
growth of renewables while reducing greenhouse gas emissions from the
use of fossil fuels.
At
Suncor, we’re optimistic that collaboration and innovation enable us to
do both. While transforming the energy system is one of the most
complex tasks the world has faced, we can accelerate progress. We’re
seeing businesses mobilize and collaborate on climate action like never
before.
Last year, for example, we
invested 635 million Canadian dollars to develop and deploy technology
in this field, including innovations that could reduce greenhouse gas
emissions from operations by up to 80 percent. Our Fort Hills oil sands
mine uses
paraffinic froth
treatment technology to cut the greenhouse gas emissions intensity of
each barrel of oil produced there to be on par with the average refined
barrel in North America.
We also are
investing in energy-efficient cogeneration technology to reduce
emissions from burning petroleum coke and export low-carbon power to
Alberta’s grid so the province can transition from coal-based power
generation. This will reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 2.5 million
tons per year, equivalent to removing 550,000 vehicles from the road.
Mark Anthony Gyetvay
Chief financial officer, Novatek
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| Mark Anthony Gyetvay |
Climate
change is the defining topic of our generation and ultimately impacts
everyone and all companies globally. It is our responsibility — the oil
and gas industry — to ensure that we are doing everything possible to
mitigate our carbon footprint and facilitate the transition to
clean-burning energy. With energy demand forecast to rise over the
coming decades, we must ensure affordable and secure energy supplies are
available in a sustainable manner.
At
Novatek, sustainable development is integral to our corporate strategy
and embedded in our decision-making process. When we consider
development projects, such as our large-scale liquefied natural gas
projects, the ecological and environmental impacts are fully studied and
plans are implemented to mitigate negative consequences. We engage all
of our stakeholders in the review process.
Although
climate science is calling for the reduction in fossil fuels, I believe
the imminent demise of fossil fuels is overstated and the rapid
transition to renewable sources of fuels will not solve this existential
question. Natural gas is a clean-burning fuel and will be an important
part of this energy transition. We will do our part to facilitate this
energy transition by promoting natural gas as part of the climate change
dialogue and solution.
Sir Mark Moody-Stuart
Chairman, Global Compact Foundation
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| Sir Mark Moody-Stuart |
Undoubtedly yes, the world must accelerate its transition to renewable energy.
First,
we all need to unite to support regulatory and fiscal frameworks, using
taxes or market mechanisms to establish a carbon price high enough to
drive significant change, with proceeds used to support those negatively
affected parts of society.
However,
price is not the whole answer; the poor are more adversely impacted by
pricing, so we should mandate strict performance standards for
technologies or ban some energy sources unless mitigated.
Cost
is no longer a major barrier for renewables; intermittency is. So we
need to develop technologies to store energy for periods of little or no
wind or sunshine. Batteries are one answer, but they face scale,
resource availability and environmental challenges. An alternative is to
use spare capacity at times of high renewable availability to split
water into oxygen and hydrogen. The hydrogen can then generate
electricity or drive heavy transport, aircraft or processes not easy to
electrify.
Finally, renewable-energy
projects are currently less profitable than oil and gas projects. The
challenge for oil majors and their investors enjoying high dividend
yields is how to profitably apply their cash flow and project skills in
the new energy world.
Bjarne Pedersen
Executive director, Clean Air Asia
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| Bjarne Pedersen |
The
science on how human activities — predominantly the use of fossil fuels
— have caused and continuously aggravate the impacts of climate change
is indisputable. An accelerated shift to renewable energy is necessary
not only to mitigate the impacts of the global climate crisis, but also
to provide safe and clean air, particularly in Asia, which bears the
highest health burden from air pollution.
Only
2 percent of Asia’s cities meet the World Health Organization’s
guidelines for exposure to soot and other small particulate matter of
2.5 microns or less in diameter, which cause cardiovascular and
respiratory disease, and cancers. Despite this, Asia is set to
contribute half of the projected global expansion of coal-fired power
plants. In Southeast Asia alone, it is estimated that coal emissions
will increase premature deaths to 70,000 annually by 2030, from an
estimated 20,000 today.
The role of
the private sector is critical to the needed shift to renewable energy.
Divesting from coal-powered energy generation and investing in renewable
energy is imperative, particularly in Asia, where energy demand is
increasing.
With millions of people in
Southeast Asia still without access to electricity, and with the
rapidly declining costs of renewable energy technologies, there is huge
potential for its use on remote islands and in areas not easily
accessible to the national grid. Equally important is investing in, and
placing emphasis on, sustainable transport and clean energy solutions
for buildings and consumers.
Erich Pica
President, Friends of the Earth
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| Erich Pica |
Transitioning
to renewable energy is not only necessary to fight the climate crisis,
it is also the only way we can quickly and effectively meet rising
energy demands. It is foolish to think, however, that the fossil fuel
industry will eagerly embrace this transition. We must push governments
to enact an ambitious climate strategy that phases out all fossil fuels
and transitions to a sustainable economy.
Over
a billion people around the world lack access to electricity, and
increasing fossil fuel-based generation will not fix this. Coal and
nuclear power plants are expensive boondoggles. Communities living in
energy poverty are continuously left in the dark without access to the
grid as corporations sell power to industrial users and for export to
recoup the costs.
Renewables,
particularly small-scale renewables, are cheaper and faster to install.
Small-scale renewables also tend to generate and keep power locally.
This becomes a more effective way to fight energy poverty. Renewables
are cheaper than nuclear, can compete with gas, and their price
continues to fall. Rapidly phasing out fossil fuels and transitioning to
renewables is the only choice for the climate and the economy.
Patrick Pouyanné
Chairman and C.E.O., Total
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| Patrick Pouyanné |
Science
and market trends are clear: the world energy mix will evolve. But the
debate is about the capacity of the world to adopt the right pace of
change. The energy world is facing two challenges: providing affordable
energy to a growing population and efficiently addressing climate
change. For many emerging countries, the first challenge is paramount.
This is why we engage resolutely in adapting the energy pattern and
finding an acceptable gradual pace.
With
the digital economy, a host of products and services are “going
electric.” As a result, demand for electricity is surpassing demand for
other forms of final energy. In this environment, all fossil fuels are
not equal. For an equivalent energy content, gas emits half as much
carbon as coal in power generation.
Total
has been an “oil producer” for nearly a century, but now it is a major
“energy player” that produces and markets fuel, natural gas and
low-carbon electricity. Climate issues are central to our strategy in
all four of our priority areas. In particular, we aim to:
Develop our leadership in the integrated gas value chain, the cleanest fossil fuel and an essential alternative to coal.
Grow in low-carbon electricity from power generation to power storage and sale to end customers.
Focus on low-cost oil for petroleum products and develop sustainable biofuels.
Develop
businesses necessary to carbon neutrality, such as energy storage
technologies, energy efficiency services, nature-based solutions and
carbon capture and storage.
Shyla Raghav
Vice president, climate change, Conservation International
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| Shyla Raghav |
Our
dependence on fossil fuels for energy — and, actually, the entire
global economy — is unquestionably the largest cause of the greenhouse
gas emissions driving the climate breakdown. Science suggests that
avoiding the worst impacts of climate change requires global emissions
to peak in 2020 and decline rapidly to net-zero by 2050. This will be
possible only through a large-scale shift to clean, renewable energy.
This
may seem nearly impossible, but wind and solar technologies are
doubling in capacity every four years. If we prioritize policies such as
carbon taxes and shift to circular production and consumption systems,
achieving net-zero emissions is possible, even in the sectors that are
the hardest to abate such as cement and chemicals.
However,
just decarbonizing our economy will not by itself be enough to solve
this crisis — for that, we need nature. The world’s carbon-rich
ecosystems — tropical forests, mangrove swamps and peat lands — store
more carbon than the entire atmosphere. Their destruction contributes to
climate change, so we need a transformative shift in how we protect and
manage such ecosystems as well as how we produce and use energy.
These
fundamental transformations won’t happen on their own. Business and
political leaders must heed consumers’ and voters’ demands for action,
and promote changes via tax incentives, carbon pricing and investments
in solutions available today. People can help by limiting their air
travel, avoiding single-use plastics and shunning products that drive
deforestation. This may all seem daunting, but with the right incentives
and leadership, change will be inevitable. Our future depends on it.
Ajay Singh
Head of strategy and commercial, Japan Petroleum Exploration Company
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| Ajay Singh |
I
agree completely that the world must rely less on fossil fuels and
accelerate its transition to renewable forms of energy. But it’s a tall
order. Consumption of fossil fuels is actually increasing, whereas
scientific assessments call for it to reduce drastically — for instance a
total phase out of coal and a 50 percent reduction in hydrocarbons by
2050 — if we are to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7
degrees Fahrenheit).
The fact is that
the world has an abundance of hydrocarbons, the cost of producing them
remains relatively low, they can be conveniently used in most
applications, and investment in oil and gas assets generally remains
financially more attractive than that in renewable energies.
Shareholders do not necessarily like the prospect of lower returns that
might result from a greater push into renewable energies. More
widespread carbon taxation would help align investment behaviors with
societal imperatives.
Meanwhile,
further growth in renewable energies such as photovoltaic solar and
wind — which are competitive in their own right against hydrocarbons and
coal in certain regions — is being impeded by the lack of
cost-effective electricity-storage solutions.
Next-generation
technologies — such as using electrolysis to produce hydrogen fuel by
splitting water — can accelerate the transition by providing effective
energy storage and, in some cases, by exploiting synergies with the oil
and gas industry.
Jean Su and Kelly Trout
Co-chairwomen, Energy Working Group, Climate Action Network
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| Kelly Trout |
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| Jean Su |
The
science is clear: We must rapidly slash fossil fuel consumption by 2030
and keep 80 percent of the remaining fossil fuels in the ground to
avoid climate catastrophe. At the same time, renewable energy is
reaching cost parity with fossil fuels. The barrier to a 100 percent
clean and renewable energy future is no longer technology and economics —
it’s sheer political will.
But our
political system is broken. Despite their knowledge that fossil fuels
drive the climate emergency, fossil fuel producers have been suppressing
this science, obstructing clean energy from reaching the grid and
delaying this transition for decades. When companies like Exxon, Shell
and BP invest in extracting more fossil fuel out of the ground, they
lock us into high-carbon infrastructure, and that drives more fossil
fuel consumption — exactly what these companies want.
The
public, reflected in the millions of students and adults striking
around the world last month, knows we cannot rely on the fossil fuel
industry to stop drilling us into disaster. Instead, our political
leaders must say no to new fossil fuel projects and finance and invest
in a 100 percent clean and renewable energy system, creating good-paying
jobs and protecting communities in the process.
Ms.
Su also is the energy director and staff attorney at the Center for
Biological Diversity; Ms. Trout also is a senior research analyst at Oil
Change International.
Mark Watts
Executive director, C40 Cities
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| Mark Watts |
We are in a climate emergency, and we need to start acting like it.
Despite
all the scientific evidence, a small group of powerful nations and
companies are still blocking attempts to curb greenhouse gas emissions.
Allowing global temperatures to rise far beyond 1.5 degrees Celsius
above preindustrial levels risks the extinction of human civilization.
That is why mayors of the world’s big cities are so committed to urgent
action.
They also recognize the
benefits that will come from shifting our economies off fossil fuels:
Cities in the future could enjoy affordable and reliable public
transport; clean air; buildings that could be cheap to heat and cool;
waste that can be reused or recycled rather than going to landfills.
Mayors are using all the powers they have to shift markets and shape
consumer choices — buying electric buses, for example, and creating
low-emission zones in their city centers.
In
the absence of meaningful leadership from the intergovernmental system,
more than 70 mayors are gathering in Copenhagen for the
C40 World Mayors Summit.
Working with business leaders, investors, civil society, scientists,
and young climate activists, mayors will be taking responsibility for
stimulating a scale and pace of action that can avert climate breakdown.
This is the future we want, and it is still within our grasp.
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