How Much Would It Cost To Stop Climate Change? It's A Staggering Amount

Sydney Morning Herald - Ishika Mookerjee (Bloomberg)

The world needs to spend $US50 trillion ($73 trillion) on five areas of technology by 2050 to slash emissions and meet the Paris Agreement's goal of halting global warming, Morgan Stanley analysts wrote in a report.
To reduce net emissions of carbon to zero, the world would have to eradicate the equivalent of 53.5 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide a year, according to the report, which identified renewable energy, electric vehicles, hydrogen, carbon capture and storage, and biofuels as the key technologies that could help meet the target.

Arresting climate change will come with a hefty price tag, Morgan Stanley says.

Carbon emissions from fossil fuels hit a record last year, but estimates vary of how much it would cost to meet the Paris target of keeping the global temperature rise to within 2 degrees.
The International Renewable Energy Agency says $US750 billion a year is needed in renewables over a decade. United Nations scientists say $US300 billion spent on reclaiming degraded land could offset emissions to buy time to deploy zero-carbon technologies.
Here are Morgan Stanley's estimates for the five key technology areas and some of the companies leading the drive.

Renewables

• Renewable power generation will require $US14 trillion by 2050, including investments in energy storage.
• Renewables would need to deliver about 80 per cent of global power by then, up from 37 per cent today, meaning an additional 11,000 gigawatts of capacity, excluding hydro-power.
• Solar energy's rapidly falling cost will make it the fastest-growing renewable technology over the coming decade with a 13 per cent compound annual growth rate.

Electric vehicles

• With passenger cars currently pumping out about 7 per cent of greenhouse gas emissions, some $US11 trillion will be needed to build factories, expand power capacity and develop the batteries and infrastructure needed to switch to electric vehicles.
• With increased investment, annual electric vehicle sales could grow from 1.3 million units in 2018 to 23.2 million in 2030, lifting the total number of electric vehicles to 113 million by 2030 and 924 million by 2050.

Carbon capture and storage

• Almost $US2.5 trillion would be needed for technologies that capture carbon and store it.
• While it currently costs about $US700 million to capture a million tonnes of carbon a year, the cost of building CCS plants is expected to drop 30 per cent by 2050.
• With more than 200,000 megawatts of new coal-fired generation capacity under construction, CCS is the only option to offset the emissions of these plants, Morgan Stanley says.

Hydrogen

• About $US5.4 trillion is needed for electrolysers to make the gas, which can help provide clean fuel for power generation, industrial processes, vehicles and heating.
• In addition, $US13 trillion would be required to increase renewable energy capacity to power the plants.
• Another $US1 trillion would be needed for storage, with additional investment for transportation and distribution.

Biofuels

• Almost $US2.7 trillion should go into biofuels like ethanol, which are currently mixed with petroleum products but will spread eventually to areas such as aviation.
• About 4 per cent of global transportation fuel will be biofuel in 2030.
• Ethanol, the most-used biofuel at the moment will grow at about 3 per cent a year, while a type of biodiesel called hydrotreated vegetable oil will achieve must faster growth, quadrupling production by 2030.

Links

• Morgan Stanley Says These Firms Will Profit From Climate Change
• How to Halt Global Warming for $300 Billion
• 10 ways to accelerate progress against climate change
• New report shows just 100 companies are source of over 70% of emissions
• These U.N. Climate Scientists Think They Can Halt Global Warming for $300 Billion. Here's How
• World military expenditure grows to $1.8 trillion in 2018
• Measuring Impact, By The Numbers

Australia's Emissions To Start Falling Thanks To Renewables Boom, Researchers Say

The Guardian - Adam Morton

Deeper cuts through the 2020s to meet the Paris target will depend on governments supporting further expansion

Governments have been urged to support further expansion of solar and wind to help Australia meet its Paris target. Photograph: Dan Himbrechts/AAP

Australia’s greenhouse gas emissions will stop rising and gradually start to fall over the next three years as the country feels the effects of the recent renewable energy boom, engineering researchers say.

Academics from the Australian National University estimate national emissions will dip by 3%-4% by 2022, ending the year-on-year increases recorded since the abolition of the carbon price scheme.
But they found deeper emissions cuts through the 2020s to meet the target set under the Paris climate agreement would depend on the federal and, to a lesser extent, state governments supporting further expansion of solar and wind by ensuring adequate new electricity transmission and storage.
Andrew Blakers, a professor of engineering, said a policy briefing published on Thursday, co-authored with colleague Matthew Stocks, was a “message of hope” about reducing pollution at lowest cost.

“Solar and wind energy offers the cheapest way to make deep cuts in emissions because of their low and continually falling cost,” he said. “If the renewable energy pipeline is stopped or slowed because of insufficient transmission and storage, then emissions may rise again from 2022.”
While the call for improved transmission is near universal, Blakers and Stocks differ from most energy experts in placing relatively little weight on the need for government policy to continue to drive what has been a surge in clean energy investment since 2017.
The current boom is largely driven by the 2020 federal renewable energy target. It led to nearly 3.5 gigawatts of capacity being built last year, three times more than the year before. But the target, equivalent to about 23% of national electricity demand, has now been met, the Morrison government has not replaced it and there is evidence investment has slowed.
A growing number of businesses have signed renewable energy contracts independent of government support, but many analysts say the boom is unlikely to continue without a policy with bipartisan political support to drive the transformation to a cleaner grid.
Blakers said clean technology was so cheap that adequate government support for transmission and storage would be enough to deliver 50% renewable energy by 2024 and 75% by 2030. He said a national energy and emissions policy could lead to an even faster shift, but the change will happen regardless.
According to his analysis, Australia would meet its 2030 target set at Paris (a 26-28% cut in emissions compared with 2005 levels) without relying on controversial “carry-over credits” through cuts in emissions from electricity generation alone, even if emissions continued to rise across the rest of the economy, as projected. He believes the target should be increased.
“I think a lot of people are hooked up on energy policy but we’re doing very well as things stand. A neutral policy is enough to make it,” he said.
This contrasts with other analyses, including government projections, that found Australia was not likely to meet its emissions target under existing policies. Bill Hare, of research and science organisation Climate Analytics, said Blakers’ assessment of what it would take to meet the Paris target did not stack up.
Dylan McConnell, from the Australian-German Climate and Energy College, said Blakers was right to highlight the need for support for improved transmission but disagreed that renewable energy growth would continue at recent levels without policy backing.
He said investors were unlikely to sign contracts for new energy plants when wholesale energy prices were falling to zero during sunny periods. “Unless we have growing electricity demand, a coal exit or a policy ... to encourage renewable energy I can’t see it happening,” McConnell said.
Tristan Edis, from consultancy Green Energy Markets, earlier this year found clean energy would provide 35% of Australia’s total electricity needs within two years as solar power transformed the national energy market.
But he said the pace was unlikely to continue as things stand. “We don’t see the economics of the energy market supporting significant levels of investment in large-scale wind and solar beyond this year without some sort of reward for greenhouse gas abatement.”
Blakers and Stocks recommend the establishment of renewable energy zones to overcome outdated transmission rules and significantly expanding interconnection between states, including the mooted second undersea cable between Tasmania and Victoria.

Links

• The new electricity boom: renewable energy makes staggering leap but can it last?
• Clean energy set to provide 35% of Australia's electricity within two years
• Australia's carbon emissions rise again, largely thanks to LNG industry
• Australia's annual carbon emissions reach record high
• Australia's annual emissions continue to rise, driven by LNG production
• PM claims Australia will meet Paris target 'in a canter' despite emissions climbing
• Energy guarantee to drive slight renewables increase, but emissions will also rise
• Australia's emissions rise again in 2017, putting Paris targets in doubt
• Coalition balks on Finkel target but will unveil energy and emissions policy
• Scientists Have Been Underestimating the Pace of Climate Change

Massachusetts Sues Exxon Mobil, Saying Company Lied About Climate Change

Reuters - Nate Raymond

BOSTON - Massachusetts sued Exxon Mobil Corp (XOM.N) on Thursday, with the state’s attorney general accusing the oil giant of misleading investors and consumers for decades about the role fossil fuels play in climate change.

An airplane comes in for a landing above an Exxon sign at a gas station in the Chicago suburb of Norridge, Illinois, U.S., October 27, 2016. REUTERS/Jim Young

Attorney General Maura Healey filed the suit shortly after the oil major lost a bid to delay the filing until after it is done defending itself in a trial over similar suit in New York.
Suffolk County Superior Court Judge Heidi Brieger during a hearing in Boston acknowledged that Healey’s office was required to give Exxon an opportunity to discuss the case at least five days before suing the company.
But she ruled that the state was under no obligation to wait longer than that after notifying Exxon on Oct. 10 of its intent to sue, which Assistant Attorney General Richard Johnston said his office wants to do “ASAP”, or as soon as possible.
“We should be allowed to file our lawsuit at the earliest possible moment,” he told the judge.
company said Healey’s decision to sue now after a three-year investigation was simply “gamesmanship” to distract the oil major’s lawyers from the trial in New York that began on Tuesday.
Healey and her New York counterpart launched investigations into Exxon following news reports in 2015 saying company scientists determined that fossil fuel combustion must be reduced to mitigate the impact of climate change.
Those news reports, by InsideClimate News and the Los Angeles Times, were based on documents from the 1970s and 1980s. Exxon said the documents were not inconsistent with its public positions.
Healey in 2016 issued a so-called civil investigative demand to Exxon seeking documents to determine whether it had violated the Massachusetts consumer-protection law through its marketing and sale of fossil fuel products.
The company fought the records request, but the state’s top court in April 2018 concluded Healey had jurisdiction to seek the records. In January, the U.S. Supreme Court declined to hear Exxon’s appeal of that order.
New York meanwhile sued Exxon in October 2018, accusing it of engaging in a scheme to deceive investors about the impact that future climate change regulations could have on its business.
Exxon denies wrongdoing and has accused the New York and Massachusetts attorneys general, both Democrats, of pursuing the cases for political reasons.

Links

• ExxonMobil's climate-change accounting goes on trial
• Exxon accused of misleading investors on climate change
• Fossil Fuels on Trial: New York’s Lawsuit Against Exxon Begins
• A Climate Show Trial 
• Oil behemoth Exxon starts trial for alleged climate fraud
• Former Exxon Scientists Tell Congress of Oil Giant's Climate Research Before Exxon Turned to Denial
• Exxon Isn't The Only Fossil Fuel Giant Getting Its Arse Sued