26/11/2019

(AU) The Political Classes Are Stuck And The Consequences Could Be Catastrophic

Sydney Morning HeraldSean Kelly*

In the odd hours following Donald Trump’s election victory, many of us traced our shock to the obvious fact the world had just changed. But soon enough we realised that this obvious fact was wrong. The world had changed some time ago. It was just that we had missed it, caught in old ways of seeing, old ways of being. We often take a while to catch up to the present.
Those memories have come back to me over the past couple of weeks, as heavy grey-smoke skies have pressed down on Sydney, and the scent of bushfire has made its way inside. Yes, there have been fires before, just as there had been election upsets before – but to many of us this year feels different. You strike up conversations with people you don’t know about the fact this is the way it’s going to be from now on. And you know, too, that really we’ve been heading this way for some time, it’s just that we are now beginning to comprehend the scale.
And yet debate in this country, as conducted by politicians and the media, remains stuck, unproductively nostalgic for what debate once was, unwilling to concede the change that many citizens feel instinctively.
Deputy Prime Minister Michael McCormack attacked the Greens. Credit: Alex Ellinghausen
To briefly rehearse facts: after the fires began burning, the Deputy Prime Minister, Michael McCormack, said now was not the time to be talking about climate change. Those doing so were “pure, enlightened and woke capital-city greenies”. Then Greens senator Jordon Steele-John attacked those who would prop up coal: “You are no better than a bunch of arsonists.” His colleague, Adam Bandt, said the government was putting “lives at risk”.
But you’ve already heard all this in one of the many pieces of commentary that condemned these comments equally as examples of extreme and unhelpful language.
Illustration: Simon Bosch
Two things amazed me about this ubiquitous analysis.
The first was that while opinions differed on whether it was the right moment to talk about climate change, there was near unanimity on the idea that it was precisely the right moment to have a long national discussion about civility in political discourse and the correct uses of rhetoric. I’m sure the farmers and the firefighters were grateful.
The second was that little of this commentary drew a distinction between the two comments on the basis of truth. What McCormack said was false – it was not just “greenies” linking the fires to climate change - and this was widely noted. But wasn’t it also the case that what the two Greens were saying was true, or at the very least arguable? If we know that climate change comes from rising emissions, and that it is causing natural disasters to intensify, isn’t there a clear line between failing to cut emissions, more destructive fires in the future and more deaths?
The Greens were criticised for point-scoring, which was a curious phrase, suggesting they were treating politics as a game. But it seemed to me it was their critics who were treating politics as though it were a local cricket match, after which everyone could leave the field, shake hands, and go politely on their way. Bandt and Steele-John, in contrast, were treating matters as deadly serious, insisting that politics has consequences, sometimes fatal, and that its practitioners should not be protected from this fact.
They should certainly not be protected from this fact by the media, whose job description you might think lies in the opposite direction.
The difficulty of the current moment is that we are caught between two eras. Behind us lies a period in which debate and compromise between two sides, each of which had reasonable points, was a useful way to achieve progress. When the GST and interest rates were the most important issues, this was fine.
On many issues, it still is fine. And of course political analysis will always include discussion of what is possible. But on more urgent, defining issues like climate change – or the rise of far-right nationalism – we fail when we substitute what change might be achievable for an honest appraisal of what change is necessary.
Similarly, points about the disappearance of civility and the rise of partisanship are important critiques, broadly speaking. But they are not equally applicable to every topic. Our political classes have been handed a hammer, and now they think everything’s a nail.
A final example of politics lagging reality. Our politicians are still debating who to blame for events of 10 years ago, when Kevin Rudd’s emissions trading scheme was voted down. As a matter of history, it’s fascinating. As part of the current debate, who cares? Nobody knew then what we know now, not in the way we know it, in our bones.
The only failures that matter now are the ones ahead. “Accepting the science” no longer means believing in climate change, it means accepting that catastrophic events are on their way unless we act pretty much immediately. We can ignore this if we like, go on deluding ourselves that politics can be discussed the way it used to be. But if we do, there will be consequences, and nobody will be able to protect us from them.

*Sean Kelly is a columnist for The Age and The Sydney Morning Herald and a former adviser to Labor prime ministers Kevin Rudd and Julia Gillard

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(AU) The World Burns All Year. Are There Enough Planes to Douse the Flames?

New York Times

Reuters
SYDNEY — Sharing the giant air tankers that fight fires 5,000 gallons of water at a time used to be simpler. California’s wildfires faded before Australia’s bush fires surged, leaving time to prepare, move and deploy planes from one continent to another.
But climate change is subverting the system.
Fire seasons are running longer, stronger, hotter. The major fires now blanketing Sydney in smoke started early, within days of the last California blazes.
And the strain is global. Countries that used to manage without extra help, like Chile, Bolivia and Cyprus, have started competing for plane and helicopter contracts as their own fires intensify. That is stretching capacity for the companies that provide most of the globe’s largest firefighting aircraft, and increasing anxiety for fire officials worldwide.
“We’re all feeling it,” said Richard Alder, general manager of Australia’s National Aerial Firefighting Center. “As fire seasons ramp up and get longer — and they definitely seem to be doing that, the science tells us that — it places more demand on aircraft to support the firefighting. And it’s only one part of the equation.”
The age of fire is upon us, scientists say, and the public and private system built to contain it is being pushed to its limits. While firefighting is still primarily done on the ground, governments and frightened residents are increasingly demanding costly assistance from the air.
The European Union created a reserve fund this year for firefighting aircraft, with contracts allowing for deployments across national borders. Bolivia leased the world’s only Boeing 747 water bomber to fight fires in the Amazon in August, after the plane had been used in Israel in 2016, Chile in 2017 and California in 2018.
Meanwhile in Asia, South Korea is reaching out to companies like 10 Tanker Air Carrier in New Mexico, while Indonesia borrowed an air tanker from Australia a few years ago that came from Coulson Aviation in Canada, which is now doubling the size of its contract fleet, while developing new technologies for mapping and fighting fires at night.
What these companies and fire officials say they are planning for is a world ablaze year-round.
“It’s coming from all over,” said John E. Gould, president of 10 Tanker Air Carrier, who started his career fighting fires in Alaska in the 1970s. “Fires are affecting climates and places they never used to affect.”
That has forced firefighting “to be a global effort, not a state or national effort,” said Stuart Ellis, the chief executive of the Australasian Fire and Emergency Service Authorities Council, which manages fire planning for Australia, New Zealand and the Pacific.
“It’s not just a firefighting issue,” he added. “We need to be more critical of our planning decisions. We need to examine building in bush-fire-prone areas. People love living in the bush, but as the bush is becoming more vulnerable, is that viable?”
In Australia, the conservative government has yet to confront such difficult questions as it rejects a discussion of climate change and its impact. But the country is fast becoming a fiery test case for the pressures that are building worldwide.
Australia is more vulnerable than most: It is arid and expansive, with large cities sprawling toward wilderness. Climate change is already delivering a sharp shift in precipitation, spurring a lengthy drought. Dry areas are now drier and larger, with forests that used to be reliably moist becoming tinderboxes waiting for a spark.
This week, more than 1,000 firefighters have been battling more than 120 blazes in four states as dangerous fire conditions and record temperatures persist. In some areas, no significant rainfall is expected until January.
“We’re starting to see unprecedented conditions,” said JoĆ«lle Gergis, a climate scientist at the Australian National University. “We had bush fires starting as early as winter — and by the time spring came around, we had fires in subtropical rainforest.”
Fire officials and scientists say they are being forced to imagine, for the first time, overlapping and intensifying demands.
“Something is clearly changing,” said Richard Thornton, the chief executive of the Melbourne-based Bushfire and Natural Hazards Cooperative Research Center. “And the climate is driving all of that.”
The fires of this new era cannot always be tamed. Neither aircraft nor ground crews can do much for the blazes that spread quickly with powerful winds. The Tubbs Fire that destroyed parts of Santa Rosa, Calif., in 2017 jumped an eight-lane freeway. The winds supercharging the Camp Fire that burned through the town of Paradise, Calif., last year pushed water bombers too high into the air to drop their payload.
Nonetheless, aircraft use, and fire management costs, are soaring.
Chile, which expanded its contracts with Coulson this year, spent more than three times as much on firefighting from 2014 to 2018 as it did during the previous five-year period. The United States Forest Service spent more than $1 billion on fire suppression in 13 of the 18 years between 2000 and 2017.
Costs surpassed $2 billion for the first time in 2017 and 2018, when California’s fire seasons were especially severe.
In Australia, too, firefighting expenses are rising. And because the responsibility largely resides with individual states, fire officials are increasingly worried whether the system can handle what’s on the way.
Firefighters are already hard to deploy across state lines: Of Australia’s 300,000 fire and emergency service personnel, roughly 85 percent are volunteers who tend to stay where they live. Large airplanes and helicopters that dump water or other firefighting materials are thus increasingly seen as the most vital weapons for what officials call “surge capacity” — the ability to add resources as fires defy control.
Two years ago, the National Aerial Firefighting Center — which coordinates air support for all of Australia’s states and territories — sent a proposal to Parliament asking for a more than 70 percent increase in its annual federal funding, to 26 million Australian dollars ($17.7 million).
But the request was ignored. And state governments are now bearing the burden. There will be seven large air tankers in Australia this fire season; a DC-10 owned by 10 Tanker touched down in New South Wales last weekend, ahead of the usual Dec. 1 start date, after fighting the recent fires in California.
The state also recently bought a 737 Fireliner — along with two lead planes — from Coulson Aviation for 26.3 million Australian dollars ($17.9 million). It can carry 4,000 gallons of liquid along with 72 passengers.
Other states — and countries — have signaled they may follow.
But buying or leasing a water tanker is not as easy as ordering hoses, or even sharing a few hundred firefighters, as the United States and Australia do now as well. The planes being modified are typically decades old. It can take years to turn them into firefighting weapons, and officials are anxious about whether the market will meet their needs.
All 18 of the large air tankers that the United States Forest Service plans to use through 2022 will come from private contractors, according to the agency’s aviation strategy.
The more that fires surge into fall for California, the worse it may be for Australia and the rest of the world when it’s time to share.
“I suspect we’re all becoming more nervous,” said Mr. Alder, who has been fighting fires in Australia for decades. “We’re keeping a watchful eye on it.”

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(AU) Scott Morrison And The Big Lie About Climate Change: Does He Think We're That Stupid?

The Guardian

Australians everywhere are ready to get on with the job of dealing with the climate crisis. We just need a prime minister to lead us
Scott Morrison comforts 85-year-old Owen Whalan, who was evacuated from his home to the Taree evacuation centre on the NSW north coast. Photograph: Darren Pateman/EPA
Of all the horrors that might befall the burnt out, the flooded, the cyclone ravaged and the drought stricken Australian this summer, perhaps none could be viewed with more dread than turning from their devastated home to see advancing on them a bubble of media in which enwombed is our prime minister, Scott Morrison, arriving, as ever, too late with a cuddle.
It’s fair to say that Morrison has pulled off other roles with more conviction – the shouty Commandant of the Pacific camps perhaps his most heartfelt to date, the Gaslighter-in-Chief his most audacious, his Mini-Me to Donald Trump’s Dr Evil not without tragicomic charge – but sorrowful Father of the Nation has begun to feel a firebreak too far.
In Australia we are all now being treated as children, quietened Australians, most especially on the climate crisis. While the climate crisis has become Australians’ number one concern, both major parties play determinedly deaf and dumb on the issue while action and protest about the climate crisis is increasingly subject to prosecution and heavy sentencing.
In Tasmania, the Liberal government intends to legislate sentences of up to 21 years – more than many get for murder – for environmental protest, legislation typical of the new climate of authoritarianism that has flourished under Morrison. As Australia burns, what we are witnessing nationally is no more or less than the criminalisation of democracy in defence of the coal and gas industries.
In this regard, the climate crisis is a war between the voice of coal and the voice of the people. And that war is in Australia being won hands down by the fossil fuel industry.
Which brings us back to that industry’s number one salesman, the prime minister, standing there in the ash in the manner of Humphrey B. Bear on MDMA, as, mollied up, he pulls another victim in the early stages of PTSD into his shirt, his odour, his aura – such as it is – and holds them there perhaps just a little too long. Sometimes, at his most perplexing, he lets that overly large head loll on the victim’s shoulder and leaves it there. Prayers and thoughts naturally follow.
Perhaps it is just his way. Certainly, the prime minister is an unusual issue of two stock types frequently derided in broader Australian culture: the marketing man and the happy-clappy. But in fairness to both tribes, he seems to draw on the worst in both traditions and make of them something at once insincere, sinister and vaguely threatening.
Perhaps it’s the slightly up and down smile, the uneven mouth and crooked teeth, a lack of symmetry that can be attractive in some here seems to suggest nothing more than an untrustworthy menace. After all Elvis made of his sneer an alluring smile. Scott, with his reverse magic, makes of his every smile a sneer. Still, his wisdom would seem to be that if he is seen to be very good at feeling our pain we won’t ask him what caused the wound.
The prime minister must accept that public men are judged by public acts. Real empathy would mean speaking honestly to our nation about what the climate catastrophe means for our economy, our environment, our society, and each of us and for each of us personally.
All this theatre hides a deeply cynical calculation: that Australians will keep on buying the big lie, a lie given historic expression last Thursday morning when on national radio the prime minister declared that Australia’s unprecedented bushfires were unconnected to climate change.
The same day the New South Wales government announced that Sydney dams had in the last 12 months received just 10% of the normal water inflows and declared Stage 2 Water Restrictions as numerous country towns face the prospect of no water.
And on this day, when Sydney was blanketed in bushfire smoke, when much of Victoria was declared Code Red, fires were burning out of control in South Australia, and climate emergency was declared word of the year by Oxford Dictionaries, Morrison said that “to suggest that at just 1.3% of emissions, that Australia doing something more or less would change the fire outcome this season – I don’t think that stands up to any credible scientific evidence at all.”
This is an argument entirely in bad faith.
Two days before saw the release of a major UN report that forecast Australia to be the sixth largest producer of fossil fuels by 2030. Between 2005 and 2030 Australia’s extraction-based emissions from fossil fuel production will have increased by 95%. By 2040, according to the report, on current projections the world’s annual carbon emissions will be 41 gigatonnes, four times more than the maximum amount of 10 gigatonnes required to keep global heating below 1.5 C.
According to the Economist: “The report lays much blame on governments’ generosity to fossil-fuel industries.” The report details at length how Australia supports its fossil fuel industries.
Actively working through legislation, subsidy, and criminalisation of opposition to enable Australia to become one of the world’s seven major producers of fossil fuels makes Australia’s actions directly and heavily responsible for the growing climate catastrophe we are now witnessing in Australia. It gives the lie to the nonsense that we will make our Paris commitments “in a canter”.
It cannot be explained away. It cannot be excused. Australia is actively working hard to become a major driver of the global climate crisis. That is what we have become.
The same day Morrison went to the Gabba, got photographed with cricketers and tweeted: “Going to be a great summer of cricket, and for our firefighters and fire-impacted communities, I’m sure our boys will give them something to cheer for.”
To the question does he think we are that stupid, the answer was implicit in an interview the same day when the prime minister justified not meeting with 23 former fire chiefs and emergency services leaders calling for a climate emergency declaration in April, claiming the government had the advice it needed. He went on to say that: “We’re getting on with the job, preparing for what has already been a very devastating fire season.”
Only he’s not.
Getting on with the job would be calling a moratorium on new thermal coalmines and gas fracking. Getting on with the job would be announcing a subsidised transition to electric vehicles by 2030. Getting on with the job would be working to close down all coal-fired powered stations as a matter of urgency. Getting on with the job would be calling a summit of the renewable energy industry and asking how the government can help make the transition one that happens now and one that creates jobs in the old fossil fuel energy communities.
And getting on with the job would be going to the world with these initiatives and arguing powerfully, strongly, courageously for other countries to follow as we once led the way on the secret ballot, women’s suffrage, Antarctic protection, the charter of human rights.
We are not a superpower, but nor are we a micronation. We have an economy the size of Russia’s. Our stand on issues whether good or bad is noted and quoted and used as an example. And one only has to look at the global standing of New Zealand to see the power of setting a moral and practical example, and the good that flows from it for a nation and its people. Australians everywhere are ready to get on with the job of dealing with climate change. We just need a prime minister to lead us. In the meantime though we are left with a mollied-up Humphrey B. Bear.
That same day, news broke of a panicked attempt by the federal government to administer some desperate triage over the growing costs to ordinary Australians of climate change in the form of perhaps the most ill-considered piece of policy in recent political history: to underwrite insurance premiums in north Queensland where premiums on homes in cyclone-affected areas are becoming unaffordable.
Major insurers have been warning for years that many homes will no longer be insurable as the consequences of climate change are felt and have been demanding action on climate change. The government has done nothing and now wishes to use taxpayers’ money to hide the growing costs to individual Australians of climate change. If the government does go ahead with this panicked response the precedent established is pregnant with catastrophe for the public purse.
According to a detailed report by SGS Economics and Planning released at the beginning of this year more than 1.6 million Sydneysiders are at high risk of flooding or bushfires, about 2 million Brisbane residents face extreme risks from cyclones, and more than 4.4 million people in NSW and Queensland live in areas with extreme or high risk of cyclones. It will be impossible for any government to subsidise the premiums of Townsville residents with cyclone risk and not offer it to those in Huonville whose fire risk also increases yearly.
And yet the government will not act on the fundamental problem that leads to those risks, choosing instead to use the public purse to hide the growing evidence of its failure.
The man who brandished a lump of coal and told us not to be scared, the man who last October told farmers to pray for rain, the man who says there is no link between the climate emergency and bushfires, the man whose party has for 30 years consistently and effectively sought to prevent any action on carbon emissions nationally and internationally will finally have to answer for the growing gap between his party’s ideological rhetoric and the reality of a dried out, heating, burning Australia. And as the climate heats up ever quicker, and as the immense costs to us all become daily more apparent, that day draws ever closer.
Many political commentators tend to view Morrison as some political genius, the winner of the unwinnable election. But history may judge him differently: a Brezhnevian figure; the last of the dinosaurs, presiding over an era of stagnation at the head of a dying political class imprisoned within and believing its own vast raft of lies as the world lived a fundamentally different reality of economic decay, environmental pillage and social breakdown.
A corrupted, sclerotic system incapable of the change needed, surviving only by and through a dull repression of dissent and dissenters can, nevertheless, seem eternal – until the hour it crumbles. At some point something gives. Something always gives. The longer the impasse, the more denied the common voice, the greater and more terrible that future moment.
We still have other, better choices. We need leaders who will enable us to make them.
Morrison’s Pentecostal religion places great emphasis on the idea of the Rapture. When the Rapture arrives, the Chosen – that is, those Pentecostalists with whom the prime minister worships and their controversial pastor – will ascend to Heaven while the rest of us are condemned to the Tribulation – a world of fires, famine and floods in which we all are to suffer and the majority of us to die wretchedly, while waiting for the Second Coming and Scott and co wait it out in the Chairman’s Lounge above. Could it be that the prime minister in his heart is – unlike the overwhelming majority of Australians – not concerned with the prospect of a coming catastrophe when his own salvation is assured?
In any case, as a Christian whose faith is built on a direct reading of the gospels, the prime minister would know the most compelling and convincing form of betrayal has always been the embrace and kiss.

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