Lethal Heating: 12/04/19

04/12/2019

(AU) More Than 206 Heat Records Broken In Just 90 Days This Year, Climate Council Report Says

NEWS.com.au - Charis Chang

NSW Rural Fire Service crews watch on as fire burns close to a property on Wheelbarrow Ridge at Colo Heights, northwest of Sydney, on November 19. Picture: Dan Himbrechts/AAP

Sydney and Melbourne could experience 50C summer days before the end of the century if greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise, a new report highlights.
The Climate Council’s report said more than 206 heat records had been broken in just 90 days this year including record-highest temperatures in 87 locations.

In NSW, temperatures are 3.41C above average.
“Queensland and New South Wales have both lost more homes (to bushfire) since August 2019 than in any previous year, with the hottest months of the fire season still to come,” the report said.
Recent bushfires have also created a health hazard in cities like Sydney, which were covered in smoke haze for several days.
Dr Kate Charlesworth said air quality had been impacted so badly in some areas, “it’s the equivalent of smoking 40 cigarettes a day”.
In Australia, the main risk to human life from climate change arises from heatwaves, which can lead to illnesses like heat exhaustion and the worsening of heart and kidney disease.
“Climate change is a serious health issue. Health professionals like myself have a duty to speak up just as we did with asbestos and tobacco,” Dr Charlesworth said.
Heatwaves, defined as at least three days in a row of unusually high temperatures, are occurring more frequently in Australia.
They now start 19 days earlier in Sydney and 17 days earlier in Melbourne if you compare the data for 1981-2011 and 1950-1980.
The number of heatwave days each year has also increased in Perth, Adelaide, Melbourne, Sydney, Canberra and Hobart since 1950.
The hottest day of the heatwave is also becoming hotter.
Most dramatically, the peak day in Adelaide is on average now 4.3C higher in 1981-2011 compared with 1950-1980.
The report noted Sydney and Melbourne could experience 50C summer days by the end of the century.

Smoke shrouds the Sydney Harbour Bridge on November 21 in Sydney. Picture: Cassie Trotter/Getty Images

Drought is also an issue, with the central west of NSW facing a dangerous summer.
The period from January 2017 to October 2019 has been the driest on record for the Murray-Darling Basin as a whole.
The current prolonged drought across eastern Australia is threatening crops for the third year in a row, and national summer crop production is forecast to fall by 20 per cent to 2.1 million tonnes in 2019/20.
“Major regional centres such as Orange and Dubbo are currently facing severe water shortages, and this summer is shaping up as a terrible trifecta of heatwaves, droughts and bushfires with no reprieve for the Central West,” Climate councillor and report author Professor Will Steffen said.
“We have seen bushfires starting in winter, a heatwave traversing the country in spring, and a prolonged drought. Climate change is influencing all of these things,” Prof Steffen said.
Rob Lee, a beef and sheep farmer in Larras Lee, northwest of Orange, said he had been anxious about the changing climate for more than 15 years, which is why he joined Farmers for Climate Action.
“We can see the conditions changing out here. We have less rainfall, winters are getting drier, the surface water is no longer reliable and dams are drying up,” Mr Lee said.
“We have never seen a drought as bad as this. In 2018, we sold one-third of our cows, and again this year we sold another third. Once we are through the next calving, we will get out altogether and run just sheep.
“We have also built drought lots to contain our sheep. This protects the topsoil which can turn to dust in the dry conditions.
“We have made a number of changes to our farming practices, but if climate change continues to accelerate, driving more drought conditions, it is going to be very hard to make a living as a farmer.
“Australia needs to take serious, credible action on climate change. Renewable energy is an investment in the future, an opportunity that could create a lot of industries in regional areas like the Central West,” Mr Lee said.
The Bureau of Meteorology is forecasting above-average maximum temperatures for most of Australia this summer with eastern Australia likely to be drier than average.
“This long-term warming trend driven by the burning of coal, oil and gas is putting Australian lives, our economy and the environment at risk,” Climate Council chief executive officer Amanda McKenzie said.

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(AU) Dangerous Summer: Escalating Bushfire, Heat And Drought Risk

Climate Council

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A long-term warming trend from the burning of coal, oil and gas is supercharging extreme weather events, putting Australian lives, our economy and our environment at risk.
The Climate Council’s new report, ‘Dangerous Summer: Escalating Bushfire, Heat and Drought Risk‘, has found this summer is shaping up as a terrible trifecta of heatwaves, drought and bushfires, made worse by climate change.

Key Findings
Australia is being battered by extreme weather events, made worse by climate change. The summer of 2019/20 is shaping up as another terrible trifecta of heatwaves, droughts and bushfires.

The projections for the summer of 2019/20 are extremely concerning. The Bureau of Meteorology is forecasting above-average maximum temperatures for most of Australia with eastern Australia – already plagued by drought – likely to be drier than average.
The 2019/20 bushfire season in New South Wales and southeast Queensland began in winter. Already six lives have been lost and more than 600 homes destroyed in New South Wales, mostly in remote and rural areas and small towns. It is now only the beginning of summer, which means the hottest weather and greatest danger period may still be to come.
The bushfires have been costly for farmers. In Cobraball, Queensland, for example, an estimated 12,000 hectares of farmland have been destroyed, including 230 hectares of high-value horticultural crops, with an estimated $20 million damage bill for farms in the region.
Wildlife has also been badly affected by the ongoing bushfires, with reports of at least 1,000 koala deaths in important habitats in New South Wales, Queensland and South Australia and the habitats of some of the most ancient and globally iconic songbirds have either been burnt or are under threat.

Climate change is making many extreme weather events in Australia worse.

Climate change is now making hot days hotter, and heatwaves longer and more frequent. This has implications for bushfire weather, with fire seasons starting earlier and lasting longer.
Long-term heating and the reduction in cool season rainfall in mainland southern Australia are exacerbating drought conditions.
The period from January 2017 to October 2019 has been the driest on record for the Murray- Darling Basin as a whole. Over the same period of time, new long-term records for low soil moisture have been set, with ten of the Basin’s 26 river catchments recording the lowest soil moisture levels on record.

LARGE IMAGE

Worsening extreme events, such as heatwaves, drought and bushfires, are affecting the health and well-being of Australians and important sectors such as farming.

The number of heatwave days each year has been increasing in Perth, Adelaide, Melbourne, Sydney, Canberra and Hobart, and across Australia as a whole since 1950. Heatwaves can have severe effects on human health, including both direct heat illnesses (e.g. heat exhaustion) and indirect impacts (e.g. cardiovascular failure).
The heatwave that occurred during the summer of 2009 is estimated to have resulted in as many as 500 excess deaths in Melbourne and Adelaide (374 deaths in Melbourne and 50-150 deaths in Adelaide).
The current prolonged drought across eastern Australia is threatening crops for the third year in a row, and national summer crop production is forecast to fall by 20 percent to 2.1 million tonnes in 2019/20.
Bushfires also cause serious health impacts, including direct loss of life, physical injuries and mental health issues. Large populations are also at risk from the health impacts of bushfire smoke, which contains respiratory irritants and cancer-causing substances.

The catastrophic events that are unfolding in Australia are not “normal”. Now is the time to act decisively and swiftly.

A long-term heating trend from the burning of coal, oil and gas is supercharging extreme weather events, putting Australian lives, our economy and our environment at risk. Australia is one of the most vulnerable developed countries to climate change.
If greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise, the unusually hot weather currently experienced will become commonplace, occurring every summer across the country. Sydney and Melbourne could experience unprecedented 50°C summer days by the end of the century.
Australian states, territories, towns and cities are leading the way on climate action. This leadership is hugely important because the Federal Government has no credible pathway for reducing emissions.
Australia must contribute to the global effort to deeply and rapidly reduce greenhouse gas emissions and we must prepare our fire and emergency services and communities for worsening extreme weather events.

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Climate Change: The COP25 Talks Trying To Change The World

BBC - Imran Rahman-Jones

GETTY IMAGES

We know the warnings by now.2019 is on course to be in the top three warmest years on record.
The UK government has declared a national climate emergency.
And now, UN Secretary General António Guterres says the "point of no return is no longer over the horizon".
That came ahead of the UN's two-week gathering of countries to discuss climate change and set targets - the 25th Conference of the Parties (COP25).
So what really gets done at these conferences - and do they actually work?

Climate activist Greta Thunberg was at last year's COP event in Poland. GETTY IMAGES

Many countries have individual targets related to climate change.
For example, the UK government has committed to cutting greenhouse gas emissions right down to net-zero by 2050.
But there are also worldwide targets for countries which take part in the UN climate change summits.
The Montreal Protocol, adopted in 1987, was an international agreement to try to heal the ozone layer, which protects Earth from ultraviolet rays but was being destroyed by man-made chemicals.
By last year it was found to be successfully healing - the Northern Hemisphere could be fully fixed by the 2030s and Antarctica by the 2060s, according to a UN report.
The COP meetings - which focus on greenhouse gases - started in 1995. But it was 1997 when the first significant targets were set.

The Kyoto Protocol

The Kyoto Protocol is named after the Japanese city where it was agreed. GETTY IMAGES

The Kyoto Protocol, agreed in Japan in 1997, set targets for 37 countries to cut greenhouse gas emissions.
The targets were different for each country, depending on how developed they were.
But the US pulled out in 2001 - because they were unhappy that developed countries had legally binding targets, while less developed nations didn't have binding targets.
Canada pulled out in 2011 and a lot of other countries missed their targets.

Doha in Qatar was where the Kyoto Protocol was amended. GETTY IMAGES

In 2012, the Kyoto Protocol was updated in Doha, Qatar.
But the deal only covered Europe and Australia, whose share of world greenhouse gas emissions was less than 15%.
However, it paved the way for the Paris Agreement in 2015 - also known as COP21 - which was another significant step in climate change talks.

The Paris Agreement

GETTY IMAGES

The Paris Agreement went further than any other international climate change deal.
It was agreed by 195 countries in 2015 and came into force in November 2016.
Some of the main pledges were:

To keep global temperatures "well below" 2C above pre-industrial times and "endeavour to limit" them even more, to 1.5C.
To limit the amount of greenhouse gases emitted by human activity to the same levels that trees, soil and oceans can absorb naturally, beginning at some point between 2050 and 2100.
To review each country's contribution to cutting emissions every five years so they scale up to the challenge.
For rich countries to help poorer nations by providing "climate finance" to adapt to climate change and switch to renewable energy.

One of the main differences to the Paris deal was that it allowed countries to submit their own targets - rather than tell countries what their targets were.

This got the US and Canada back on board.
But since then, the US has started to withdraw from the agreement, as President Trump says it's unfair on the US economy.
He has said he wants to make it easier for fossil fuel producers in the US.
But there's an election in the US in November 2020, and a different president could cancel the withdrawal.

Do the talks actually work?

COP25 has started in Madrid and runs until 13 December. GETTY IMAGES

Although the Paris Agreement was generally well-received, the UN itself has said it doesn't go far enough.
A report from the UN Environment Programme in 2017 says the Paris Agreement only covers a third of the emission reductions needed.
It says that the world is still on course to warm by more than 2C.
The report recommends putting more ambitious targets in place in 2020.

COP25: What you need to know about the climate conference.

Next year's targets are what's expected to be discussed at this year's COP25 in Madrid.
The 2020 summit will be held in Glasgow and countries have committed to submit new and updated national climate action plans.
The UN Secretary General António Guterres will tell the meeting that the world is now facing a full-blown climate emergency.
He said before the conference: "In the crucial 12 months ahead, it is essential that we secure more ambitious national commitments - particularly from the main emitters - to immediately start reducing greenhouse gas emissions at a pace consistent to reaching carbon neutrality by 2050."
It could be seen as an acknowledgement that while the climate change summits can be a step towards a better future, more needs to be done - and time is running out.

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