Lethal Heating: 12/19/19

19/12/2019

(AU) Climate Change Has Cut Australian Farm Profits By 22% A Year Over Past 20 Years, Report Says

The Guardian - Paul Karp

Agriculture department report says changes in climate since 2000 have reduced revenue of cropping farms by $1.1bn a year

Prime minister Scott Morrison visits drought affected farm in Queensland. Photograph: Dan Peled/EPA

Climate change has reduced Australian farms’ average annual profitability by 22%, or around $18,600 per farm, in the past two decades, according to the agriculture department.
In a report released on Wednesday, the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences has found that since 2000 changes in climate have reduced the revenue of Australian cropping farms by a total of $1.1bn a year.
The report notes that average temperatures increased by about 1C since 1950 and compares Australia’s climate over the period 2000 to 2019 with the period from 1950 to 1999 by holding other variables, including farm output and commodity prices, constant.
Abares, the Department of Agriculture’s science and economics research division, has developed a statistical model called Farmpredict using data from 40,000 farm observations to simulate differences in more than 50 physical and financial farm variables.
Since 2000, climate change has had a negative effect on the profitability of broadacre farms in Australia. Only Northern Territory farms improved profitability, up 8.7%, with massive cuts to profit in Victoria (–37.1%), Western Australia (-25.8%) and New South Wales (-25.5%) attributed to climate change.
Cropping farms were the worst hit, with revenue down 8% or around $82,000 a farm, and a 35% reduction in profits, or $70,900 for a typical cropping farm.
Report co-author David Galeano said adaptation to climate variability “is certainly helping” – and without it farms would have experienced a 26% reduction in profit, and cropping farms’ profits would be down 49%.
Sheep farms experienced an 18.2% reduction in average annual profit, or $6,100 per farm. Beef farms were “less affected overall” with a reduction in average profits of 5%, although some areas – including south-western Queensland – were more affected than others.
Climate conditions have “also contributed to increased risk in terms of more variable cash income and profitability, particularly for cropping farms”, the report says.
Climate change increased downside risk, with the chance of “very low” profits – below 2% – more than doubling since 2000.
The Abares report says that the current drought across much of eastern Australia “has demonstrated the dramatic effects that climate variability can have on farm businesses and households”.
It says that drought-affected NSW recorded “large falls in profit in 2018–19” but less drought-affected regions, including Western Australia, increased profits due to high commodity prices for grain and livestock.
Abares warns that drought policy faces “an almost unavoidable dilemma: that providing relief to farm businesses and households in times of drought risks slowing industry structural adjustment and innovation”.
“In some cases, well-intentioned policies can also disadvantage farmers who have been better prepared – or luckier – than farmers who are provided assistance and relief, diluting management incentives and raising difficult equity issues.”
It recommends that in addition to supporting farm households experiencing hardship, drought policy should “promote resilience and improved productivity”.
Climate change is making drought worse in Australia, although senior government figures including the Nationals leader, Michael McCormack, tend to emphasise that Australia’s climate has always been characterised by intermittent drought and flood.
The centrepiece of the Coalition’s drought policy is a $5bn drought future fund that will make annual payments of $100m to improve resilience.
In November the government announced an extra $1.5bn for drought relief, consisting of a $1bn concessional loan package for farmers and small businesses affected by the drought and $500m for “direct investment into communities”.
Modelling the effect of drought, the Abares report says a cropping farm will see profit decrease from around $230,000 in a typical year to a loss of $125,000 in a dry year.
For an Australian beef farm, profit falls from $60,000 in a typical year to a loss of $5,000 in a dry year.

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(AU) Climate Change Slashes More Than $1 Billion From Farm Production Value Over Past 20 Years: ABARES

ABC Rural - Kath Sullivan

Wind is blowing topsoil away and farmers fear it will take years for some landscapes to recover.
(ABC News: Lucy Barbour)

More than $1 billion has been wiped from the value of Australia's annual crop production due to the change in climate over the past two decades, according to a new report.
For the first time, government commodity analyst ABARES has quantified the financial loss Australian farmers have experienced due to the increasingly warmer and drier climate.
It found changes in climate since 2000, had reduced the average broadacre farmer's profits by 22 per cent, or about $18,600 per year.
For cropping farmers — considered the most heavily exposed to climate variability — the annual farm profits fell by 35 per cent, or $70,900.
"We knew it was big, but we didn't have a precise number before and this model and method allows us to get at that," report co-author Steve Hatfield-Dodds said.
Dr Hatfield-Dodds said the modelling relied on 30 years of data, which distinguished the impact of price, climate variability and other factors on Australian farms.
That was modelled with reporting by the Bureau of Meteorology.
"Essentially, there's been a shift in climate in the last past 20 years, where the climate has become noticeably hotter and drier," he said.

"Dry years are more frequent since the year 2000 … temperatures have gone up by about 1 degree since 1950."

Drought support reduces adaptation
The ABARES report has thrown up questions about government support for farmers affected by drought, and how best to drive innovation in the sector, as the climate continues to change.
"Adjustment, change and innovation are fundamental to improving agricultural productivity, maintaining Australia's competitiveness in world markets, and providing attractive and financially sustainable opportunities for farm households," it reported.

"In some cases, well-intentioned policies can also disadvantage farmers who have been better prepared or luckier than farmers who are provided assistance and relief, diluting management incentives and raising difficult equity issues."

The State of the Climate Report 2018 shows winter rainfall over southern Australia has been declining over the past 20 years. (Supplied: CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology)

Dr Hatfield-Dodds said the sector must increase its resilience to a warmer and drier climate.
"There's a lot of talk about economists versus normal people," Dr Hatfield-Dodds said.
"The economists worry about drought assistance because there is this unavoidable dilemma between helping farmers who are in need now, and slowing down innovations and adjustment in the sector.

"And we know from this study — and lots of other ones — that innovation is crucial to improving farm income for households over the long run.

"But there aren't many options for governments to help farmers that don't risk slowing down innovation."
He suggested incentives, such as improved weather-insurance policies for farmers, could help build resilience in the sector.
Dr Hatfield-Dodds also highlighted the Federal Government's Future Drought Fund, providing $100 million a year from next year, as a policy which would support resilience in the sector as the climate evolved.
It was not yet clear how that funding would be allocated, but the legislation passed earlier this year outlined spending on future drought preparedness.

Losses could have been greater
The report found the losses would have been even greater had Australian farmers not adapted to drought as well as they had.

"Without these gains, the effects of the post-2000 climate would have been larger — a 26 per cent average decline in profit for all broadacre farms, and 49 per cent for cropping farms under the 1990 technology," the report said.

In short, if the average cropping farm had made no adaptions to the hotter and drier climate, its income would have been down by a further $26,700 a year.

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(AU) Governments Must Act On Public Health Emergency From Bushfire Smoke, Medical Groups Say

The Guardian - Graham Readfearn

The 22 groups link the bushfire smoke to climate change, saying lives are being put at risk

Transport NSW workers are seen wearing masks as smoke haze from bushfires in New South Wales blanketed the CBD in Sydney. Photograph: Steven Saphore/AAP

Some 22 groups representing health and medical professionals in Australia have issued a joint call to act on a “public health emergency” caused by smoke from the catastrophic bushfire season in New South Wales.

In Sydney and others areas of NSW communities have been exposed to air pollution up to 11 times worse than “hazardous” levels.
The group has produced a joint statement calling for political leadership while repeating a call for a national strategy to combat the health impacts of climate change.
Dr Kate Charlesworth, a fellow of the Royal Australasian College of Physicians, which signed the statement, said: “Climate-related health effects are having the most impact on our most vulnerable: babies, children, the elderly and people with pre-existing disease. There is no safe level of air

pollution.”
“To protect health, we need to shift rapidly away from fossil fuels and towards cleaner, healthier and safer forms of energy.”
Among the 22 groups that signed the statement are the Australasian College of Emergency Medicine, Public Health Association of Australia, Australian College of Nursing, Australian Association of Social Workers and Lung Foundation Australia.
The statement says the federal and NSW governments must “prioritise action to help reduce the risks to people’s health arising from hazardous air pollution”.
Fiona Armstrong, executive of the Climate and Health Alliance, said: “This is a public health emergency.” She added: “Climate change is going to get much worse and we will see more and more of these events.”
Dr Lai Heng Foong, of Doctors for the Environment Australia, which has also signed the statement, said: “Pollution from bushfire smoke remains hazardous to people, in the short term and also the long-term.”

Smoke haze hangs over Sydney as fire danger risk heightens – video

Many of the groups that have signed the statement are also pushing for Australia to respond to the health impacts of climate change.
Mark Brooke, CEO of Lung Foundation Australia CEO, said a national strategy was needed.
“Climate change and air quality significantly contribute to poor lung health, increased health and economic burden, disability and death,” he said.
“If we want to prevent the worst air pollution from bushfire smoke, one of the best things our governments can do, aside from fuel reduction burns, is to set stronger and better standards for everyday air quality.”
In August, the Australian Medical Association declared that climate change was a “health emergency”, citing “clear scientific evidence indicating severe impacts for our patients and communities now and into the future.”
The AMA called on the Morrison government to help Australia move away from fossil fuels, and to promote the health benefits of cutting greenhouse gas emissions.

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