Lethal Heating: 12/31/19

31/12/2019

Climate Change: Six Positive News Stories From 2019

Hydroelectric power has helped Costa Rica ditch fossil fuels. John E Anderson / shutterstock

The climate breakdown continues. Over the past year, The Conversation has covered fires in the Amazon, melting glaciers in the Andes and Greenland, record CO₂ emissions, and temperatures so hot they’re pushing the human body to its thermal limits. Even the big UN climate talks were largely disappointing.

But climate researchers have not given up hope. We asked a few Conversation authors to highlight some more positive stories from 2019.

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Costa Rica offers us a viable climate future
Heather Alberro, associate lecturer in political ecology, Nottingham Trent University

After decades of climate talks, including the recent COP25 in Madrid, emissions have only continued to rise. Indeed, a recent UN report noted that a fivefold increase in current national climate change mitigation efforts would be needed to meet the 1.5℃ limit on warming by 2030. With the radical transformations needed in our global transport, housing, agricultural and energy systems in order to help mitigate looming climate and ecological breakdown, it can be easy to lose hope.However, countries like Costa Rica offer us promising examples of the “possible”. The Central American nation has implemented a refreshingly ambitious plan to completely decarbonise its economy by 2050. In the lead-up to this, last year with its economy still growing at 3%, Costa Rica was able to derive 98% of its electricity from renewable sources. Such an example demonstrates that with sufficient political will, it is possible to meet the daunting challenges ahead.

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Financial investors are cooling on fossil fuels
Richard Hodgkins, senior lecturer in physical geography, Loughborough University

Movements such as 350.org have long argued for fossil fuel divestment, but they have recently been joined by institutional investors such as Climate Action 100+, which is using the influence of its US$35 trillion of managed funds, arguing that minimising climate breakdown risks and maximising renewables’ growth opportunities are a fiduciary duty.Moody’s credit-rating agency recently flagged ExxonMobil for falling revenues despite rising expenditure, noting: “The negative outlook also reflects the emerging threat to oil and gas companies’ profitability […] from growing efforts by many nations to mitigate the impacts of climate change through tax and regulatory policies.”

An oil pipeline in northern Alaska. saraporn / shutterstock

A more adverse financial environment for fossil fuel companies reduces the likelihood of new development in business frontier regions such as the Arctic, and indeed, major investment bank Goldman Sachs has declared that it “will decline any financing transaction that directly supports new upstream Arctic oil exploration or development”.

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We are getting much better at forecasting disaster
Hannah Cloke, professor of hydrology, University of Reading

In March and April 2019, two enormous tropical cyclones hit the south-east coast of Africa, killing more than 600 people and leaving nearly 2 million people in desperate need of emergency aid.

Cyclones Idai and Kenneth caused huge floods in Mozambique.Emidio Jozine / EPA

There isn’t much that is positive about that, and there’s nothing new about cyclones. But this time scientists were able to provide the first early warning of the impending flood disaster by linking together accurate medium-range forecasts of the cyclone with the best ever simulations of flood risk. This meant that the UK government, for example, set about working with aid agencies in the region to start delivering emergency supplies to the area that would flood, all before Cyclone Kenneth had even gathered pace in the Indian Ocean.
We know that the risk of dangerous floods is increasing as the climate continues to change. Even with ambitious action to reduce greenhouse gases, we must deal with the impact of a warmer more chaotic world. We will have to continue using the best available science to prepare ourselves for whatever is likely to come over the horizon.

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Local authorities across the world are declaring a ‘climate emergency’
Marc Hudson, researcher in sustainable consumption, University of Manchester

More than 1,200 local authorities around the world declared a “climate emergency” in 2019. I think there are two obvious dangers: first, it invites authoritarian responses (stop breeding! Stop criticising our plans for geoengineering!). And second, an “emergency” declaration may simply be a greenwash followed by business-as-usual.In Manchester, where I live and research, the City Council is greenwashing. A nice declaration in July was followed by more flights for staff (to places just a few hours away by train), and further car parks and roads. The deadline for a “bring zero-carbon date forward?” report has been ignored.
But these civic declarations have also kicked off a wave of civic activism, as campaigners have found city councils easier to hold to account than national governments. I’m part of an activist group called “Climate Emergency Manchester” – we inform citizens and lobby councillors. We’ve assessed progress so far, based on Freedom of Information Act requests, and produced a “what could be done?” report. As the council falls further behind on its promises, we will be stepping up our activity, trying to pressure it to do the right thing.

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Radical climate policy goes mainstream
Dénes Csala, lecturer in energy system dynamics, Lancaster University

Before the 2019 UK general election, I compared the Conservative and Labour election manifestos, from a climate and energy perspective. Although the party with the clearly weaker plan won eventually, I am still stubborn enough to be hopeful with regard to the future of political action on climate change.For the first time, in a major economy, a leading party’s manifesto had at its core climate action, transport electrification and full energy system decarbonisation, all on a timescale compatible with IPCC directives to avoid catastrophic climate change. This means the discussion that has been cooking at the highest levels since the 2015 Paris Agreement has started to boil down into tangible policies.

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Young people are on the march!
Mark Maslin, professor of earth system science, UCL

In 2019, public awareness of climate change rose sharply, driven by the schools strikes, Extinction Rebellion, high impact IPCC reports, improved media coverage, a BBC One climate change documentary and the UK and other governments declaring a climate emergency. Two recent polls suggest that over 75% of Americans accept humans have caused climate change.Empowerment of the first truly globalised generation has catalysed this new urgency. Young people can access knowledge at the click of a button. They know climate change science is real and see through the deniers’ lies because this generation does not access traditional media – in fact, they bypass it.
The awareness and concern regarding climate change will continue to grow. Next year will be an even bigger year as the UK will chair the UN climate change negotiations in Glasgow – and expectation are running high.

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Bank Of England Chief Mark Carney Issues Climate Change Warning

BBC - Roger Harrabin

Mark Carney said the financial sector had begun to curb investment in fossil fuels - but far too slowly. Reuters

The world will face irreversible heating unless firms shift their priorities soon, the outgoing head of the Bank of England has told the BBC.

Mark Carney said the financial sector had begun to curb investment in fossil fuels – but far too slowly.
He said leading pension fund analysis "is that if you add up the policies of all of companies out there, they are consistent with warming of 3.7-3.8C".
Mr Carney made the comments in a pre-recorded BBC Radio 4 Today interview.
He added that the rise of almost 4C (39F) was "far above the 1.5 degrees that the people say they want and governments are demanding”.
Scientists say the risks associated with an increase of 4C include a nine metre rise in sea levels - affecting up to 760 million people – searing heatwaves and droughts, and serious food supply problems.
Mr Carney, who will next year start his new role as United Nations special envoy for climate action and finance, continued: “The concern is whether we will spend another decade doing worthy things but not enough... and we will blow through 1.5C mark very quickly. As a consequence, the climate will stabilise at the much higher level.”
Speaking to the Today programme, he re-iterated his warning that unless firms woke up to what he called the climate crisis, many of their assets would become worthless.
“If we were to burn all those oil and gas there’s no way we would meet carbon budget,” he said. “Up to 80% of coal assets will be stranded, (and) up to half of developed oil reserves.
“A question for every company, every financial institution, every asset manager, pension fund or insurer: What’s your plan?
“Four to five years ago only leading institutions had begun to think about these issues and could report on them.
“Now $120tn worth of balance sheets of banks and asset managers are wanting this disclosure (of investments in fossil fuels). But it’s not moving fast enough.”

Copyright Getty Images

Climate campaigners Extinction Rebellion question whether the capitalist system can halt climate change.
Mr Carney said capitalism had a vital role in raising funding for clean technologies. But he added it must be tempered by government-imposed incentives, rules and prohibitions of the most damaging activities.
Climate change was what he called a “tragedy of the horizon” because the decision-making time horizon of investment managers is between two and 10 years.
“In those horizons there will be more extreme weather events, but by the time that the extreme events become so prevalent and so obvious it’s too late to do anything about it," he said.
“We look to political leaders to start addressing future problems today.”
He told those questioning the consensus on climate change: “We can’t afford on this one to have selective information, spin, misdirection… it needs to be absolutely clear because we are all in on it.
“To deliver, there needs to be shared understanding about what’s necessary. [But] it is reasonable for there to be debates at the margin about where does the role of the state stop - and what’s the role of markets.”
Mr Carney applauded the UK government for hosting next year’s vital global climate conference in Glasgow. He said success was “vital”.

Stress tests for businesses
Under Mr Carney’s leadership the Bank of England recently launched a “stress test” to determine which firms and sectors would be worst-hit by climate change.
The question is how fast financial institutions can change course.
Recently, investment bank Goldman Sachs ruled out future finance for oil drilling or exploration in the Arctic.
The bank said it would not invest in new thermal coal mines (for power stations) anywhere in the world.
It also announced plans to help its clients manage climate impacts by selling weather-related catastrophe bonds.
Insurance giant AXA said it would stop insuring any new coal construction projects, and totally phase out existing insurance and investments in coal in the EU, by 2030.
Nest, the workplace pension scheme set up by the government, is testing whether it can invest its Climate Aware Fund in firms compatible with a 1.5C warming.
Environmentalists applaud the moves but say they don’t go remotely far enough. Scientists say nations must cut emissions five-fold to avoid a temperature rise over 1.5C.

'Dire consequences'
Meanwhile, the heads of two key environmental bodies have warned that 2020 is the "last chance" to bring the world together to tackle climate change to protect communities and nature.
Climate change and damage to nature are already having "dire consequences", the leaders of government agencies Natural England and the Environment Agency said.
In an article on the Green Alliance website, Natural England chairman Tony Juniper and the Environment Agency's Emma Howard Boyd pointed to the recent flooding which saw hundreds evacuated at Fishlake, Doncaster, with some people still out of their homes.
And a report in October on the state of nature in the UK found two-fifths (41%) of the country's wildlife species had declined over the past 50 years and 13% of the species tracked were threatened with extinction in England.
"It's clear that 2020 is our last chance to bring the world together to take decisive action on climate change in order to protect our communities and reverse the alarming loss of wildlife we have witnessed in recent years," Mr Juniper and Ms Howard Boyd wrote.

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(AU) The Year The Reserve Bank Sounded The Climate Change Alarm

Sydney Morning Herald - Matt Wade

When our buttoned-down economic guardians at the Reserve Bank describe something as a "serious challenge" and a "systemic risk" it’s time to pay attention.
Those are just some of the strident terms it chose to use this year about the threat of climate change.
Amid the fractious national debate over climate policy in 2019 the Reserve made two striking interventions.

Reserve Bank deputy governor, Dr Guy Debelle. Credit:Nine

The first came in March when the RBA’s deputy governor, Guy Debelle, broke new ground for the bank with a speech titled "Climate change and the economy."
The tone was measured but the message was pointed: climate change will have a deep economic impact and the earlier policymakers and business take action to address the challenge, the lower the economic costs.
Debelle said few forces now at work in the economy "have the scale, persistence and systemic risk of climate change".

Strong words for a central banker.
He explained how the effects of global warming would amount to an economic double whammy.

Three Australian fire chiefs claim Australia's worsening bushfire seasons are linked to climate change and have called for strong leadership to tackle the problem.

Both the physical impact of climate change, such as more frequent extreme weather events, and the transition to a low-carbon economy through new regulations or price mechanisms were "likely to have first-order economic effects".

Debelle said Australia’s financial stability "will be better served by an orderly transition rather than an abrupt disorderly one".

But he warned the "trend changes" to the economy caused by climate change probably won’t be smooth.
"There is likely to be volatility around the trend, with the potential for damaging outcomes from spikes above the trend," Debelle said.
It showed climate change will now factor in the way the Reserve manages its core responsibilities, which includes setting interest rates and overseeing Australia’s financial stability.
"We are trying to learn and benefit as much as possible from the expertise of others to understand and contribute to the discussion around the serious challenge of climate change," said Debelle.
The Reserve Bank’s second strike came in October when it included a special section on risks posed by climate change in its half-yearly review of financial stability.
"Climate change is exposing financial institutions and the financial system more broadly to risks that will rise over time, if not addressed," it said.
Those risks are notoriously difficult for businesses to assess because of their long-term nature and complexity. The possibility that governments will change climate-related policies in future adds to the uncertainty.
The October report said the crucial insurance sector is most directly exposed to the physical impacts of climate change. It pointed out that insurance claims for natural disasters in the current decade have been more than double those in the previous decade, after adjusting for inflation, and that is "likely to grow over time".
The Reserve warned that climate change will expose more assets owned by households and businesses to increased physical risk "such as property located in bushfire-prone or coastal areas".
But the challenge of accurately pricing that risk will create an economy-wide dilemma.
"If insurers under-price these risks, it could threaten their viability in the event of extreme weather events resulting in very large losses," the report said.
"On the other hand, over-pricing would impede the risk pooling function provided by insurance and unduly limit economic activity."
The report even canvassed the possibility that businesses and households could lose access to insurance altogether in some cases.
"Even if correctly priced, more of these risks may become uninsurable, forcing households, businesses or governments to bear this risk," it said.
A number of other economic analysts think climate change will eventually render many properties too expensive to insure, although the shift could play out over some decades.

Home and businesses were heavily affected in Bilpin during fires in December. Credit: Nick Moir

A report released this month by the Australia Institute, a progressive think tank, said a large number of Australian properties will likely become uninsurable due to the effects of climate change. And that will, in turn, affect property values.
"There are frightening projections about increased frequency of natural disasters and it seems likely that many properties will become prohibitively expensive to insure, or insurance won’t be offered," said report’s author, Mark Ogge.
A host of perverse economic incentives for property holders would result, says Ogge. It may even require an expensive "managed retreat" from some inhabited areas.
Ogge argues a National Climate Disaster Fund should be established to reduce the cost burden on households and taxpayers of natural disaster response and recovery.
But the Insurance Council of Australia says claims that parts of Australia will inevitably become uninsurable or unaffordable due to climate change "fail to recognise that mitigation and adaptation can prevent some of the worst impacts of extreme weather".
A statement on climate change and insurance issued by the council a few weeks after RBA’s Financial Stability Review said no area of Australia should be uninsurable provided "governments invest appropriately in permanent mitigation and resilience measures to protect communities from known and projected risks, including the impact of climate change."

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