13/01/2020

(AU) Australia's Fires Are Terrifying. Will They Get World Leaders To Act On Climate Change?

TIMEJustin Worland



Families huddle on a once picturesque beach as their homes burn behind them. Baby koalas, their fur singed, cling to their mothers as they face a fiery demise. And military helicopters whomp overhead, searching the charred landscape for stragglers looking for a last-minute escape.
These bracing scenes illustrate a terrifying reality on the ground in Australia, where more than two dozen people and millions of animals have died in wildfires that have destroyed more than 25 million acres since December and that are not expected to be contained anytime soon.
The blazes, so large that they’ve created their own weather systems, have sparked widespread panic, prompted a military deployment and caused billions of dollars in damage. “We’re in the middle of a war situation,” says David Bowman, director of the Fire Centre Research Hub at the University of Tasmania.
The infernos have also captured the world’s attention. While climate-linked disasters aren’t new–from the uptick in deadly heat waves to increasingly powerful hurricanes, floods and blizzards–images of such destruction often fail to resonate and are quickly forgotten in the next day’s news cycle.
But what’s happening in Australia feels different. Haunting pictures of cute koalas, kangaroos and wallabies that have died en masse tear at our heartstrings. And as cynical as it may sound, the fact that the devastation is occurring in a wealthy, English-speaking country reminds even the most privileged observer that money alone cannot buy immunity from the wrath of nature.
“You have the perfect storm of a story,” says Anthony Leiserowitz, who directs the Yale Program on Climate Change Communication. “[It] is happening on literally the other side of the planet, yet it seems to be resonating in this country.”
Most significantly, the Australian fires are burning at a time when the world is becoming increasingly attuned to the catastrophic dangers of unchecked climate change. Activists, a series of dire scientific reports and other recent extreme, climate-linked events–including wildfires more than 7,000 miles away in California–have perhaps succeeded in sharpening the mind. Whether global leaders are able to translate this newfound awareness into meaningful political action is the next test.
There’s no question about the link between the Australian wildfires and climate change. The country’s famed bush–the continent’s vast, often dry expanse that is sparsely inhabited but filled with vegetation–has always been prone to wildfires. But a warming climate has heightened the risk: decades of worsening droughts have killed off plants, grasses and trees, creating tinder for fires, and warmer average temperatures have created furnace-like conditions in which fire can easily spread.
Last year was Australia’s hottest and driest on record, with temperatures in some parts of the country topping 120°F in December, according to government data. A 2019 report from the Australian government concluded that climate change had already “resulted in more dangerous weather conditions for bushfires in recent decades.”
But Australia’s current leadership remains largely in denial about the problem. Along with the U.S., Russia and Brazil, Australia–where coal mining is a significant industry and a powerful lobby–is one of just a handful of countries with national politicians who have steadfastly refused to consider bold action to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions.
But while U.S. President Donald Trump outright denies the science of climate change, Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison has taken a different tack in recent months. He isn’t contesting that climate change is real or that it has worsened the bushfires. Instead, he argues that his country can’t do anything about it because Australia’s greenhouse-gas emissions make up only a small share of the global total.
“To suggest that with just 1.3% of global emissions, that Australia doing something differently, more or less, would have changed the fire outcome this season,” he told an Australian radio station, “I don’t think that stands up to any credible scientific evidence at all.”
It’s not clear if, or for how long, Morrison’s position will remain politically tenable among his fellow citizens. Last year, 61% of Australians said their government should take urgent action “even if this involves significant costs,” according to a survey from the nonpartisan Lowy Institute. That number is up 25 percentage points since 2012. “There’s been a backlash against Scott Morrison,” says Lowy’s Daniel Flitton. “Issues to do with the environment have been key to the downfall of successive Prime Ministers in Australia.”
Morrison’s dismissive rhetoric on climate change makes him an outlier among democratic leaders, who are for the most part rushing to proclaim all they’re doing to save the planet.
But his position points to a dilemma: he is correct, of course, that Australia cannot single-handedly prevent climate change in the country’s backyard. Instead, nations–including those that aren’t emitting that much on their own–must act collectively to embrace policies that reduce emissions.
Whether global leaders act boldly will determine if the heartbreaking images from Australia that have now gripped the world are a tragic aberration or a look at what’s to come.

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(AU) Malcolm Turnbull: Scott Morrison Can't Afford To Waste The Bushfire Crisis When Australia Urgently Needs Its Own Green New Deal

The Guardian

The lies of the climate deniers have to be rejected. This is a time for truth telling, not obfuscation and gaslighting, writes former Australian prime minister Malcolm Turnbull
The Dunn Road fire in Mount Adrah. Former prime minister Malcolm Turnbull says Australia must substantially enhance its firefighting resources. Photograph: Sam Mooy/Getty Images
How much of our country has to burn, how many lives have to be lost, homes destroyed before we resolve as a nation to act on climate change?
Have we now reached the point where at last our response to global warming will be driven by engineering and economics rather than ideology and idiocy?
Our priority this decade should be our own green new deal in which we generate, as soon as possible, all of our electricity from zero emission sources. If we do, Australia will become a leader in the fight against global warming. And we can do it.
The cheapest new generation is from wind and solar. And every year they are getting cheaper. That is a fact. But they depend on the wind blowing or the sun shining. That’s why it is called variable renewable energy.
So we have to plan to store the energy when it is abundant so that supply is maintained when it is not.
Have we now reached the point where at last our response to global warming will be driven by engineering and economics rather than ideology and idiocy?
This is why I prioritised pumped hydro when I was prime minister and started the Snowy 2.0 pumped hydro project and the Hydro Tasmania “battery of the nation”. Apart from pumped hydro, there are other storage opportunities including batteries and using renewable energy to make “green” hydrogen, itself a fuel, which brings with it huge export opportunities as well.
But the bottom line is that today in Australia we have the means to decarbonise our entire electricity sector. At the same time we electrify the economy such as by moving to electric vehicles and trucks and using electricity, rather than gas, for heating.
We need to plan this carefully – we have to keep energy affordable and reliable as we make the transition. My government’s policy for a national energy guarantee (Neg) integrated emissions reduction and reliability, and would have enabled us to continue to make the switch to renewables without compromising the reliability of the electricity network.
Today we need common purpose, leadership and planning. We can demonstrate that abundant zero emission energy will create thousands of new jobs that will vastly exceed those lost as coal burning comes to an end.
Take the Hunter Valley. It has enormous transmission capacity which need not be wasted as its coal-fired generators close. The degraded landscape of old mines could be covered with solar panels. Pumped hydro can be created, including around Glenbawn Dam. And that is only one form of storage. The Hunter could become a green energy hub.
The children in Muswellbrook and Singleton will not have to breathe in coal dust and sulphur dioxide from the mines and power stations, and their parents will have jobs in industries that thrive with cheap, green power.
Planning is essential. A practical reality is that it takes much less time to construct new solar or windfarms than it does large-scale pumped hydro for storage. And so we have to plan the storage now.
As we replace big centralised coal-burning generators with many more distributed renewable generators, we will need more and differently designed transmission. A more distributed generation system creates resilience in the face of natural disaster with fewer single points of failure.
Australian prime minister Scott Morrison while visiting damaged property on Stokes Bay on Kangaroo Island. Photograph: David Mariuz/AAP
And those concerned about fuel security would recognise that the most reliable strategy is to use less imported fuels. Far from threatening the Australian weekend, electric vehicles make Australia more energy independent and thus secure.
But above all we have to face this fact; coal is on the way out. It is, as we are seeing today, a matter of life and death. Whether we like it or not, demand for our export coal is going to decline and expire.
The world must, and I believe will, stop burning coal if we are to avoid the worst consequences of global warming. And the sooner the better. The good news is that thanks to technology we can have abundant energy which is both green and cheap.
The cost of solar per watt is declining every year – by 13% last year alone and over 90% over the last eight years. And thanks in large part to research at the University of New South Wales we will soon see a standard solar panel increase its energy efficiency by another 50%. Batteries are seeing similar increases in efficiency and thus affordability. Aemo’s latest estimates show by 2030 new solar backed with six hours of pumped hydro as being more than $40 a megawatt hour cheaper than new black coal even without a carbon price.
And most importantly of all solar and wind are zero marginal cost generators. So they complement storage, like pumped hydro, perfectly.
The election is won, and the fires have surely demonstrated that an integrated climate and energy policy is vital.
There are simply no more excuses. We cannot allow political prejudice and vested interests to hold us up any longer.
If ever there was a crisis not to waste, it is this one. Morrison has the chance now to reinstate the Neg with higher targets. Both he and Josh Frydenberg were among its strongest supporters when I was PM. They abandoned it in the lead-up to an election, to pacify the right wing of the Coalition that sabotaged it in the first place.
The election is won, and the fires have surely demonstrated that an integrated climate and energy policy is vital if we are to be serious about cutting emissions.
At the same time as we move rapidly to deliver clean and affordable energy we need to make sure that we can respond to the consequences of global warming that cannot be avoided. That too will require careful consideration and planning. The time for spin and bluster is over.
We will need to substantially enhance our firefighting resources, which will have to be done in close consultation with the state firefighting agencies not by dictation from Canberra. Respect, consultation and collaboration are the keys here.
There are many other implications from a hotter, drier climate. Water will be scarcer, droughts more frequent and longer.
But there will be rain again, and good seasons too, so we must not become complacent when the immediate crisis abates. The global warming trend is clear, and it is not our friend.
We can adapt to a hotter drier climate. But the lies of the deniers have to be rejected. This is a time for truth telling, not obfuscation and gaslighting. Climate change is real. As real as the fires that only a month into summer have consumed nearly 10 million hectares. And our response must be real too – a resilient, competitive, net zero emission economy – as we work to make our nation, and our planet, safe for our children and grandchildren.

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(AU) PM Morrison Flags Climate Policy Change

Canberra TimesPaul Osborne, AAP

Scott Morrison says it's the government's position that climate change increases bushfire risk.
Scott Morrison says he accepts climate change is driving longer, hotter and drier summer seasons and the government's emissions targets need to "evolve".
The prime minister has faced criticism for lacking ambition on cutting Australia's emissions and a number of his coalition partyroom colleagues have downplayed the link between climate change and the devastating bushfires.
Australia has pledged to cut emissions by 26 per cent on 2005 levels by 2030, under the Paris Agreement.
"It is my intention to meet and beat that target," Mr Morrison told ABC TV on Sunday.
"In the years ahead we are going to continue to evolve our policy in this area to reduce emissions even further and we are going to do it without a carbon tax, without putting up electricity prices and without shutting down traditional industries."
Asked whether he was open to moving the existing target, he said: "What I'm saying is we want to reduce emissions and do the best job we possibly can and get better and better and better at it."
Mr Morrison acknowledged some within coalition ranks felt climate change had nothing to do with the bushfires.
But it was the government's "uncontested" advice and position that climate change was impacting on longer, hotter, drier summer seasons.
"That is the position of the government - let there be no dispute about that," he said.
Mr Morrison said one of the issues which should be explored by a royal commission into the bushfires, which he will put to cabinet and the state premiers in coming weeks, would be the impact of climate change.
Australia Institute executive director Ben Oquist said it was a "good move" to include climate in the terms of reference for a royal commission.
"But Australia will have to do more to tackle coal and gas to have a credible climate policy on the international stage," Mr Oquist said.
"The coal and gas industry should begin to help pay the mounting costs of climate impacts, recovery and adaptation through the introduction of a climate disaster levy."
Mr Morrison has rejected the idea of a levy, arguing it would hurt the broader economy.

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