Lethal Heating: 01/18/20

18/01/2020

Sir David Attenborough warns of climate 'crisis moment'

BBC - David Shukman

China needs to tackle climate change - Attenborough

"The moment of crisis has come" in efforts to tackle climate change, Sir David Attenborough has warned.

According to the renowned naturalist and broadcaster, "we have been putting things off for year after year".
"As I speak, south east Australia is on fire. Why? Because the temperatures of the Earth are increasing," he said.
Sir David's comments came in a BBC News interview to launch a year of special coverage on the subject of climate change.
Scientists say climate change is one of several factors behind the Australian fires; others include how forests are managed and natural patterns in the weather.
Sir David told me it was "palpable nonsense" for some politicians and commentators to suggest that the Australian fires were nothing to do with the world becoming warmer.
"We know perfectly well," he said, that human activity is behind the heating of the planet.

What does Sir David mean by 'the moment of crisis'?
He's highlighting the fact that while climate scientists are becoming clearer about the need for a rapid response, the pace of international negotiations is grindingly slow.
The most recent talks - in Madrid last month - were branded a disappointment by the UN Secretary-General, the British government and others.
Decisions on key issues were put off and several countries including Australia and Brazil were accused of trying to dodge their commitments.

"We have to realise that this is not playing games," Sir David said.
"This is not just having a nice little debate, arguments and then coming away with a compromise.
"This is an urgent problem that has to be solved and, what's more, we know how to do it - that's the paradoxical thing, that we're refusing to take steps that we know have to be taken."

What are those steps?
Back in 2018, the UN climate science panel spelled out how the world could have a reasonable chance of avoiding the most dangerous temperature rises in future.
It said that emissions of the gases heating the planet - from power stations and factories, vehicles and agriculture - should be almost halved by 2030.

Australia has been badly hit by bushfires. Getty Images

Instead the opposite is happening.
The release of those gases is still increasing rather than falling and the key gas, carbon dioxide, is now in the atmosphere at a level far above anything experienced in human history.
As Sir David put it: "Every year that passes makes those steps more and more difficult to achieve."

Why does this matter right now?
This year is seen as a vital opportunity to turn the tide on climate change.
The UK is hosting what's billed as a crucial UN summit, known as COP26, in Glasgow in November.
Ahead of that gathering, governments worldwide are coming under pressure to toughen their targets for cutting emissions.
That's because their current pledges do not go nearly far enough.

Assuming they are delivered as promised (and there's no guarantee of that), there could still be a rise in the global average temperature of more than 3C by the end of the century, compared to pre-industrial levels.
The latest assessment by the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) lays bare the dangers of that.
It suggests that a rise of anything above 1.5C would mean that coastal flooding, heatwaves and damage to coral reefs would become more severe.
And the latest figures show that the world has already warmed by just over 1C.

What happens next?
As things stand, further heating looks inevitable.
"We're already living in a changed world," according to Professor Ed Hawkins of the University of Reading, a scientist whose depictions of global warming have often gone viral on social media.
He uses bold coloured stripes to show how much each year's temperature is above or below average - different shades of red for warmer and blue for colder.

Our Planet Matters: Climate change explained

The designs now adorn T-shirts, scarves and even a tram in Germany.
At the moment, Prof Hawkins uses dark red to denote the highest level of warming, but regions such as the Arctic Ocean have seen that maximum level year after year.
Such is the scale of change that he's having to search for new colours.
"I'm thinking about adding dark purple or even black", he told me, to convey future increases in temperature.
"People might think climate change is a distant prospect but we're seeing so many examples around the world, like in Australia, of new records and new extremes."

Our Planet Matters: Climate change explained

What else is on the environmental agenda this year?
The natural world, and whether we can stop harming it.
While most political attention will be on climate change, 2020 is also seen as potentially important for halting the damage human activity is having on ecosystems.
Sir David has a blunt explanation for why this matters: "We actually depend upon the natural world for every breath of air we take and every mouthful of food that we eat."
World leaders are being invited to the Chinese city of Kunming for a major conference on how to safeguard Nature.

The northern white rhino (seen here) is down to just two animals, making it "functionally" extinct. Getty Images

A landmark report last year warned that as many as one million species of animals, insects and plants are threatened with extinction in the coming decades.
A more recent study found that the growth of cities, the clearing of forests for farming and the soaring demand for fish had significantly altered nearly three-quarters of the land and more than two-thirds of the oceans.
One of the scientists involved, Prof Andy Purvis of the Natural History Museum in London, says that by undermining important habitats, "we're hacking away at our safety net, we're trashing environments we depend on".
He points to the impact of everything from the use of palm oil in processed food and shampoo to the pressures created by fast fashion.
And while the need for conservation is understood in many developed countries, Prof Purvis says "we've exported the damage to countries too poor to handle the environmental cost of what they're selling to us".
The gathering in Kunming takes place in October, a month before the UN climate summit in Glasgow, confirming this year as crucial for our relations with the planet.

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David Attenborough Says Australia's Bushfires A 'Major International Catastrophe' And Calls For Climate Action

ABC News - Reuters/ABC

David Attenborough says the moment of crisis has come. (ABC News)

Key points

Attenborough says rising temperatures are behind Australia's bushfires
He has also called on China in particular to reduce its carbon emissions
Malcolm Turnbull called for the "self-destructive idiocy of climate denialism" to stop

British naturalist Sir David Attenborough says the "moment of crisis" has come in the fight against climate change, warning that governments' targets for decades in the future were not enough to save the planet.
Noting the destruction being caused by Australia's current wave of bushfires, he criticised the Federal Government's approach to climate change during an interview with the BBC, saying the support for coal mines showed the world it did not care about the environment.
"As I speak, south-east Australia is on fire. Why? Because the temperatures of the Earth are increasing," he said.

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"That is a major international catastrophe. And to say, 'Oh it's nothing to do with the climate', is palpably nonsense."
Prime Minister Scott Morrison said earlier this week that Australia was improving its resilience and responding "to the reality of the environment in which we live".
"I think that's what Australians would want to know coming out of this bushfire season, ultimately, that the resilience efforts that are being made at all levels are meeting the need," Mr Morrison said.
"Our policy is to reduce emissions, to build resilience and to focus on adaptation.
"All of these are the necessary responses to what's happening with our climate."

Sir David Attenborough has called for urgent action on climate change. (Climate Change: The Facts)

Former prime minister Malcolm Turnbull said climate change denial had "infected our politics" in Australia, in an essay he wrote for US-based news magazine Time.
"These fires show that the wicked, self-destructive idiocy of climate denialism must stop," Mr Turnbull said.
On his time in power, he said the National Energy Guarantee policy was "sabotaged" and "brought down my government".
"Both times, my efforts to take concerted action on climate change were followed by my losing my job."

Last year, Prince William launched a prize to find answers to Earth's biggest environmental problems. (AP: Gian Ehrenzeller/Keystone)

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On average, Australians are willing to chip in an extra $200 a year to prevent climate change. It turns out that money could go a long way.

Sir David also called on China in particular to reduce
its carbon emissions, saying he thought other countries would follow if China set a lead.
"The moment of crisis has come — we can no longer prevaricate," he said.
"We have been putting things off year after year, raising targets and saying: 'Oh well if we do it within the next 20 years…'
"This is an urgent problem that has to be solved. And what is more is that we know how to do it — that's the paradoxical thing — that we are refusing to take steps that we know have to be taken."
Sir David's interview was part of the BBC's drive to increase coverage of climate change ahead of a UN conference, COP 26, in Glasgow in November 2020.
The 93-year-old raised public awareness around the world of the danger of plastic pollution in oceans with his television series Blue Planet II.
Last year, Britain's Prince William launched a multi-million-pound prize to find answers to Earth's biggest environmental problems, saying the planet was now at a tipping point.

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Denmark Floats A Possible Model For Climate Policy

U.S. News & World Report - Colleen de Bellefonds

The country's new climate law shows that governments don’t have to choose between the environment and the economy.

"Climate Safari," a giant globe that can accommodate up to 300 children to teach them about green energy and help raise awareness of the consequences of climate change on the natural environment is seen in front of the Danish parliament on Sept. 13, 2018 in Copenhagen. (Ole Jensen/Getty Images)

PARIS — After millions of people worldwide took to the streets last September to demand politicians take action against climate change, climate scientists were disappointed by the outcome of December's U.N. climate summit.
Developed countries made no commitments to cut emissions in the near-term or to finance developing countries' emissions goals. Although the European Commission (aside from Poland) separately pledged a "Green Deal" to reach net zero carbon emissions by 2050, experts say it isn't enough.
"Everyone needs to get to net zero by 2050, but we won't stay on track if we don't see significant reductions by 2030," says Rachel Cleetus, policy director and lead economist in the Climate and Energy Program at the Union for Concerned Scientists, an independent advocacy nonprofit that represents a network of 25,000 scientists, economists and other experts around the world.
The European Union needs to come up with a timetable before the U.N. Climate Change Conference this year in Glasgow, Cleetus says. "It's the key to unlocking other places, like China and India."
One country, however, has committed to making climate neutrality happen — and soon: Denmark's parliament overwhelmingly passed an aggressive new climate law on Dec. 6. The legislation aims to reduce the country's carbon emissions to 70% below its 1990 levels by 2030, with carbon neutrality targeted for 2050.

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More importantly, the law has teeth. Every five years, the government must set a legally binding emissions target across sectors of the economy including energy, housing, industry, transportation, agriculture and forestry. Parliament holds the minister for climate and energy accountable and can force that person out of office if insufficient progress is made.
"It's a very significant goal that we haven't seen from any other developed country," Cleetus says. "This isn't just a commitment, it's a promise that's enshrined in law. It's the kind of robustness that we need to see."
Politicians in many developed countries remain hesitant to act due to the complexity of climate change and the potential political and economic fallout of making carbon neutrality commitments. Political analysts and climate change experts say Denmark's unique political system played a role in the country pursuing the policy.
Still, the country promises to prove that climate laws and the economy can work hand in hand, setting the path for other countries to pursue tangible policies.

Political Parties Make Climate Change a Priority
The Danish people have been concerned about climate change for years, but the issue didn't become a political priority until parliamentary elections this past June. Polls suggested that 46% of voters ranked climate change as their top concern, compared to 27% in 2017.
"Usually elections are about social, economic, health care, immigration or education issues," says Paul Parker, a professor and associate dean for strategic initiatives at the University of Waterloo in Ontario, Canada.
Flemming Juul Christiansen, a political science professor at Roskilde University in Denmark, credits a left-wing coalition — which chose to focus on climate issues because it was the only issue it could unite behind — for the change in the public's priorities.
The coalition's promotion of a climate agenda during the electoral campaigns put climate change in voters' minds at the polls, he says.
In the end, more than 90% of lawmakers in the Folketing, Denmark's parliament, voted for the new law. Even if the measures turn out to be unpopular with the public, politicians "can't just point fingers, because the agreement was so broad," Christiansen says.
The Danish government's unique setup also makes the law virtually impossible for future governments to overturn before 2050.
Denmark has a minority government, which means that the ruling Social Democratic party had to rely on support from its three leftist competing political parties in 2019 to take office. Together, these four parties drafted a binding agreement that required the climate law to be passed as a condition for agreeing to the government to take office.
A broad group of parties agreed on the climate law — in essence holding all of the country's major political parties accountable for the climate law in perpetuity.
"It's as if it's been embedded in our policies," Christiansen says.

A History of Investment in Clean Energy
Denmark has been on the forefront of the move to carbon neutrality for the past three decades. The country began reorienting its energy policies to replace coal with wind and biofuels following the 1970s oil crisis.
In the 1990s, the then-minister for environment and energy, Svend Auken, was a committed environmentalist who supported Denmark's growing wind turbine industry, says Helene Dyrhauge, a political science professor at Roskilde University, whose research focuses on transportation and sustainability.
Denmark, home to Vestas, the world's largest developer of wind turbines, supplied almost half of its electricity needs from wind power last year, according to the country's grid operator.
That is the highest level in Europe, as Denmark has taken advantage of expertise in the field and the new demand for clean energy in other EU countries by exporting its wind technology and excess power. In 2017, wind accounted for 63% of Europe's investments in renewable energy in 2018, up from 52% in 2017.
"Their economy has grown while emissions have declined," Parker says of Denmark.
In 1970, Denmark's carbon dioxide emissions were 12.6 metric tons per capita, according to the World Bank. By 2014, emissions dropped to 5.9 metric tons.
By comparison, the U.S. emitted 21.1 metric tons per person in 1970 and has declined to 16.5 metric tons today. Meanwhile, Denmark's projected gross domestic product growth rate is 1.4%, according to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD).

Making the Law a Reality
In order to reach the new law's targets, Denmark needs to focus on reforming the transportation sector, a main source of emissions in Denmark, says Dyrhauge. The government will need to create financial incentives for people to switch to cheaper electrical vehicles and phase out fossil fuel vehicles.
It will also need to further invest in renewable energies, energy infrastructure, and research into energy storage to stockpile its surplus wind energy. "The goal is ambitious, but it is possible," Parker says.
The Danish energy ministry announced in December plans to build an artificial island tying in power from offshore wind farms of up to 10 gigawatts (GW) of capacity, which Christiansen says should be more than enough to supply Denmark's population of 6 million.
The excess energy would be sold to neighboring countries. The plan could cost in the neighborhood of 200 billion to 300 billion Danish crowns ($29.5 billion-44.2 billion), much of which will be financed by private investors, including Danish pension funds.
This project will be expensive to build, but it should cover Denmark's need for energy, Christiansen says. That means new taxes – although the law stipulates that climate goals can't compromise the economy or jobs.
"It will be a little painful in the short run and take means away from other public investments," Christiansen says. "But in the long run, it could bring Denmark into the lead and it could be the future."
Parker adds, "By being an early adopter, Denmark knows that it gives them a financial advantage."

An Example for Other Developed Countries
The United States, meanwhile, is producing record amounts of oil and gas, says Cleetus. It's formally begun pulling out of the Paris Climate agreement and is dragging its heels on attending the 2020 Glasgow Climate Summit.
But the U.S. has the resources and capacity to make change, given the political will, she adds. "We are a clean energy leader," says the Union of Concerned Scientists' Cleetus of the U.S. "We could be part of this expanding global market, but we need policies to accelerate the momentum." Most climate policies have been on the state level, and federal funding for clean energy was just cut. "We need policies and investments or it won't happen fast enough," Cleetus says.
Denmark could set an example for how to build a successful carbon-neutral economy. "It's a false narrative that you have to choose between a good economy and climate," Cleetus says.
"Denmark is fairly small, but they show it can be done without compromising on quality of life. It's a thriving economy with a good standard of living and low carbon emissions."
The stakes are high, experts warn. "There's already a significant impact all over the world, from wildfires to tropical storms to rising seas to record ice loss in the arctic. People are losing their lives," Cleetus says.
"That's what in store for us as the temperature continues to go up. We need to act with urgency."

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