26/02/2020

(AU) 'Extraordinary' Fires Burnt At Historical Size, Beyond Climate Projections

Sydney Morning Herald - Peter Hannam

Australia's bushfires were not only "extraordinary" in scale but also exposed deficiencies in the climate models that are struggling to identify changes in rainfall and fire weather trends.
In a series of papers in Nature Climate Change published on Tuesday, scientists found the size of fires in NSW and Victoria were larger than any recorded since European settlement in Australia.
This season's bushfires were not only unprecedented in their size, they were also not well captured by climate models, scientists said. Credit: Alex Ellinghausen
They were also far bigger than similar forest fires elsewhere globally in at least the past two decades.
"In terms of the mid-latitude forests, this was a phenomenal event," said Ross Bradstock, head of the University of Wollongong's Centre of Environmental Risk Management of Bushfires, and an author of one of the papers.
Two fires - the Gospers Mountain and Currowan fires - each burnt more than half a million hectares, a "quite extraordinary" outcome for blazes caused by a single ignition point, Professor Bradstock said.
The paper estimated that 21 per cent of Australia's so-called temperate broadleaf and mixed forests had been burnt. That proportion was most likely an under-estimation because the tally only counted losses to the end of January and excluded those in Queensland, South Australia and Tasmania.
By contrast, average annual burnt areas for other continental forests were "well below 5 per cent" over the past 20 years. Taking Asian and African tropical and sub-tropical dry broadleaf forests alone, median annual losses were 8-9 per cent and the largest event about 13 per cent - well short of Australia's big event.
However, identifying the link between climate change and Australia's fires remains complicated, other papers showed.
Andrew King, a climate researcher at Melbourne University and lead author of one of the reports, said the dry conditions that preceded the fires were unusual and not well captured by climate models.
His team found the unusually long period since the last wet year was "the primary reason for the long-lasting dry conditions".

The Prime Minister has announced a royal commission into the bushfires in a bid to improve government response at all levels.

The 3½-year absence of rain-favouring La Nina events in the Pacific and the Indian Ocean equivalent - the negative phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole - was crucial for the dry set-up going into this season.
"Climate models have issues just simulating what's going on in the Indian Ocean and the Pacific Ocean to a slightly less degree," Dr King told the Herald. "How much can we trust them? We can't say much with any strong conviction."
While the science was clear that a warming world is ramping up temperatures almost everywhere - including in the region hard-hit by this season's blazes - it is less settled about how rainfall patterns have changed and what's to come.
"We don't currently have the capacity to make robust statements about what will happen in the future," Dr King said.
That knowledge gap could leave Australia under-prepared should drought become worse in the future, he said, adding, "It's holding us back in terms of adaptation."
A third paper, led by Benjamin Sanderson from France's CERFACS institute, argued climate models were failing to keep pace with improved fire models that were better at capturing "the evolution of fire risk".
"For NSW (the Australian state in which the fire extent is the most unprecedented), the scale of the fires is unmatched" in the latest generation of climate models, Dr Sanderson's paper said.
For instance, the sixth generation of so-called Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) only simulated similar fire extents at 4 degrees of warming, the paper found. (Warming since pre-industrial times is slightly more than 1 degree.)
"The fact that Australia has experienced damages that go beyond what is currently simulated highlights that current syntheses may be missing major risks," it said.

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(AU) Government Urged To Set 'More Aggressive And Ambitious' Climate Goals

Sydney Morning Herald - Mike Foley

The Morrison government has been urged to up its climate goals to protect the country's international reputation and for global humanitarian reasons.
Kylie Porter, the executive director of United Nations affiliate Global Compact Network Australia, said the federal government must set "more aggressive and ambitious" climate targets before the 2020 United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP26) in Glasgow in November.
Save the Children chief executive Paul Ronalds, who returned from Bangladesh this week, said "thousands and thousands" of climate refugees were pouring into the capital, Dhaka. Credit: AP
"If we don't come up with some pretty strong policy before the next international climate change conference ... it's highly likely that Australia's reputation will get worse," Ms Porter said.
Australia drew international criticism at last year's UN climate talks when it avoided tougher emissions reduction targets by banding together with a small group of nations to oppose a measure that would have stopped it using controversial "carry-over credits" to meet its climate goals.
Global Compact Network Australia is an arm of the UN Global Compact for sustainable development, with more than 12,000 corporate signatories including a number of leading Australian companies such as BHP, ANZ, Coles and Australia Post. It is calling for a commitment to limit warming to 1.5 degrees, which would be tougher than the Paris target, which requires signatory countries to aim for between 1.5 and 2 degrees.
"We think it's very important that business in particular start taking a position on their climate change strategy and consider their responsibility to respect human rights," Ms Porter said.


The RBA is warning climate change could lead to the next global financial break down.

Save the Children chief executive Paul Ronalds, who returned from Bangladesh this week, said the "thousands and thousands" of climate refugees pouring into the capital, Dhaka, was an example of the upcoming disruption likely across the Asia-Pacific region.
"The humanitarian impact of climate change will be huge but they'll be particularly significant in our region," Mr Ronalds said.
Australia was in the middle of "the most disaster-prone region in the world", surrounded by many Pacific and Asian countries that were susceptible to rising sea levels and extreme weather, he said. This meant we could expect to see "many, many millions more climate refugees and Australia is going to be increasingly attractive for them".
There was "no question" climate change was driving refugees off the land among the Bangladeshi parliamentarians he spoke with, Mr Ronalds said. "They make the comparison with Australia to say 'just like Australia, our two countries are on the frontline of climate change'," he said.
Australian contributed $200 million to the Green Climate Fund between 2015 and 2018, which was set up by the UN to help developing nations and small island states cope with the impacts of climate change. The Morrison government ceased funding in December with a final payment of $19.2 million, sparking criticism from developing nations.
Australia is also facing climate headaches on the diplomatic front.
Last week, European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen, speaking to the World Economic Forum, proposed a "carbon border adjustment mechanism", which would protect European businesses from goods produced in countries without a carbon price.
Europe is Australia's second-biggest trading partner and the scheme would impose import tariffs on Australian steel, cement, aluminium and potentially coal. In December, France proposed tying a free-trade deal to Australia adopting climate change targets.

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A Security Threat Assessment Of Global Climate Change: How Likely Warming Scenarios Indicate a Catastrophic Security Future

Washington — In a comprehensive report released by the “National Security, Military and Intelligence Panel (NSMIP)” of the Center for Climate and Security, experts warn of High-to-Catastrophic threats to security from plausible climate change trajectories – the avoidance of which will require “quickly reducing and phasing out global greenhouse gas emissions.”
The panel, made up of national security, military and intelligence experts, analyzed the globe through the lens of the U.S. Geographic Combatant Commands, and concluded that:
“Even at scenarios of low warming, each region of the world will face severe risks to national and global security in the next three decades. Higher levels of warming will pose catastrophic, and likely irreversible, global security risks over the course of the 21st century.”
The report, titled “A Security Threat Assessment of Global Climate Change: How Likely Warming Scenarios Indicate a Catastrophic Security Future,” is a first of its kind, bringing together a panel of security professionals to analyze the security implications of two future warming scenarios (near term: 1-2°C and medium-long term: 2-4+°C).
It identifies major threats, including heightened social and political instability, and risks to U.S. military missions and infrastructure, as well as security institutions, at both warming scenarios and across all regions of the world.
Highlighting the key findings of the report, members of the National Security, Military and Intelligence Panel (NSMIP) stated:

  • “It’s the job of the U.S. intelligence community to anticipate risks to national security, and provide strategic warning to appropriate policymakers. The science has long been clear, and the security community is adding compelling analysis of the threats climate change pose to people and nations. It’s long past time for vigorous action to address them.”
    – Dr. Rod Schoonover, Advisory Board Member, Center for Climate and Security; Founder and CEO, Ecological Futures Group; Former Senior Analyst and Senior Scientist, Bureau of Intelligence and Research, U.S. Department of State and Former Director of Environment and Natural Resources at the National Intelligence Council (NIC)

  • “The assessment is clear – climate change is a pressing risk to national and global security, and will evolve to become a severe and systemic threat the more we allow global temperatures to rise. Our Panel’s analysis shows that no region of the world will be left unaffected, and climate impacts will interact in dangerous ways in even near-term, lower levels of warming.”
    – Hon. Sherri Goodman, Senior Strategist and Advisory Board Member, Center for Climate and Security; Former Deputy Undersecretary of Defense (Environmental Security), U.S. Department of Defense

  • “The negative consequences of continued climate change across the next century will affect security institutions and infrastructure. We must recognize the resulting dire implications for global stability. Without leadership and swift action to prepare for and prevent these scenarios, American interests are at risk.”
    – Ambassador Richard Kauzlarich, Distinguished Visiting Professor, George Mason University; Former National Intelligence Officer for Europe and former U.S. Ambassador to Azerbaijan and Bosnia and Herzegovina

  • “During my time at the Department of Defense, I saw the U.S. military take the threats posed by climate change seriously, in both its planning and operations. But there is so much more to be done. If we don’t come together to mitigate this threat, soon, American interests and security are on the line.”
    – John Conger, Director, Center for Climate and Security; Former Principal Deputy Under Secretary of Defense, (Comptroller), U.S. Department of Defense (DoD)

  • “We don’t always have the benefit of seeing clearly the security challenges that are coming our way. As this report shows, we know that the global risks of climate change will be serious— possibly catastrophic. We have a responsibility to act with urgency to address these threats.”
    – Christine Parthemore, CEO of the Council on Strategic Risks

  • “It is our hope that this analysis can be used by security professionals and policymakers alike to better understand how climate change will impact U.S. security interests and objectives. But even more importantly, hopefully these assessments will convince all decision-makers that we must act swiftly to avoid the worst of these threats to global security.”
    – Kate Guy, Panel Chair and Principal Investigator, Center for Climate and Security

  • “Though we are facing unprecedented risks from climate change, as the report shows, we also possess unprecedented foresight about those risks. This underscores a responsibility to prepare for and prevent the security consequences of a changing climate. And you don’t have to take our word for it. Scientists and national security, military and intelligence professionals agree: the risks are potentially catastrophic, and there’s a narrowing window of opportunity to do something about it.”
    – Francesco Femia and Caitlin Werrell, Co-Founders and Directors of Research, The Council on Strategic Risks/ The Center for Climate and Security

  • “Through this report, the security community is calling out loud and clear for policymakers to take the threats posed by climate change seriously. The best way to prevent the most dangerous impacts of climate change is to reach global net-zero emissions as soon as possible. Any further denial and delay will only make the lives of our children and grandchildren even less secure.”
    – Craig Gannett, President, Henry M. Jackson Foundation

A Security Threat Assessment of Global Climate Change: A Product of the National Security, Military and Intelligence Panel on Climate Change
The climate security risks posed to each region of the world are assessed in the report through the lens of the U.S. Geographic Combatant Commands. Topline risks for each area of responsibility are summarized below.

  • AFRICOM - U.S. Africa Command (all of Africa except Egypt)
    Under a near-term, 1-2°C/1.8-3.6°F warming scenario, this region will likely see rapid loss of rural livelihoods, disease, resource stress, and migration. In this scenario, violent extremist groups bolster their numbers, and security threats spiral into nearby fragile areas.
    • Under a medium-to-long term, 2-4+°C/3.6-7.2+°F warming scenario, this region would experience new and renewed interstate conflict over water resources, and severe humanitarian crises resulting from migrating populations, weather disasters, and economic shocks. Security institutions may not be able to preserve stability in the region.

  • CENTCOM - U.S. Central Command (Middle East, including Egypt in Africa, and Central Asia)
    Under a near-term, 1-2°C/1.8-3.6°F warming scenario, this region will likely experience dangerous levels of temperature rise, drought, and dwindling water supplies that intensify already tense resource, political, and territorial competition. 
    • Under a medium-to-long term, 2-4+°C/3.6-7.2+°F warming scenario, this region would experience temperatures levels that render many areas of the region uninhabitable, competition over water resources, large-scale populations displacement, and social unrest leading to enduring conflicts and state failure.

  • EUCOM - U.S. European Command (Europe, Russia, Greenland, and Israel)
    Under a near-term, 1-2°C/1.8-3.6°F warming scenario, this region will likely experience severe weather that threatens destabilization of its key economic sectors, rising regional inequality, migration and ethno-nationalist responses, and negative impacts on civil and military infrastructure.
    • Under a medium-to-long term, 2-4+°C/3.6-7.2+°F warming scenario, this region would experience prolonged drought and rising seas, significant internal displacement, and an influx of migrants from neighboring areas. A breakdown in regional political, institutional, and security cohesion becomes more likely.

  • INDOPACOM - U.S. Indo-Pacific Command (U.S. West Coast to the west coast of India, and from the Arctic to the Antarctic)
    Under a near-term, 1-2°C/1.8-3.6°F warming scenario, this region will experience water scarcity in some areas and precipitation inundation in others, posing risks to security infrastructure, social stability, and tensions between regional powers. 
    • Under a medium-to-long term, 2-4+°C/3.6-7.2+°F warming scenario, this region would experience devastating sea level rise threatening its megacities, infrastructure, and populations, and the resulting displacement and securitization of state borders.

  • NORTHCOM - U.S. Northern Command (Puerto Rico, Canada, Mexico, The Bahamas)
    Under a near-term, 1-2°C/1.8-3.6°F warming scenario, this region will experience more intense, extreme events like storms and wildfires, with significant impacts on life, property, security infrastructure, and democratic institutions.
    • Under a medium-to-long term, 2-4+°C/3.6-7.2+°F warming scenario, this region would experience extreme heat, sea level rise, and disaster events, with severe impact on critical and security infrastructure. The region would become increasingly divided, and potentially entangled in resource competitions.

  • SOUTHCOM - U.S. Southern Command (Central and South America, the Caribbean)
    Under a near-term, 1-2°C/1.8-3.6°F warming scenario, this region will likely experience extreme heat and drought, forcing communities to migrate in search of new opportunities, with transnational criminal groups, and narcotics and human traffickers taking advantage of growing destabilization.
    • Under a medium-to-long term, 2-4+°C/3.6-7.2+°F warming scenario, this region would experience even more acute weather instability, crop collapse, and spreading disease. These issues, along with failing agriculture, will increase the likelihood of violent conflict, drive significant internal and cross-border migration, and increase political instability.
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