Lethal Heating: 02/28/20

28/02/2020

(AU) Australia’s Electricity Market Must Be 100% Renewables By 2035 To Achieve Net Zero By 2050 - Study

The Guardian - Katharine Murphy

Australia needs at least half of all new cars in 10 years time to be electric vehicles to remain within 2C warming, new analysis shows

New analysis shows Australia can transition to net zero emissions by 2050 with accelerated rollout of electric vehicles and an electricity market of 100% renewables. Photograph: Calla Wahlquist/The Guardian

Australia can achieve a transition to net zero emissions by 2050 with known technologies, but the deployment of low emissions options will need to be accelerated significantly, according to new analysis by ClimateWorks Australia.
The yet-to-be released analysis, which was previewed at a workshop at the Australian National University amid a resumption of the climate wars in federal politics, suggests transitioning to net zero will require Australia’s electricity market to be 100% renewables by 2035, as well as achieving deep energy efficiency and electrification in buildings, and an accelerated rollout of electric vehicles.
The analysis says to remain within 2C warming, Australia would need at least half of all new cars in 10 years time to be electric vehicles. On a trajectory of staying within 1.5C, it would be three in four cars. Current government projections point to one in five cars sold.
Staying within those pathways would also require renewables to make up more than 70% of energy generation by 2030, rather than a 50% share.
Anna Skarbek, the chief executive of ClimateWorks, which is a non-profit advisory body that works within the Monash Sustainable Development Institute, told an ANU forum reaching net zero in Australia was entirely possible. “We know the technology is available, it is about how to accelerate the uptake,” she said.
“Looking just at the domestic economy, not the export economy, the technology mix is available for Australia to achieve net zero emissions within the carbon budget the science requires for 2C and for 1.5C.”
Skarbek – who is a former investment banker and a founding director of the Clean Energy Finance Corporation – said achieving net zero would require dialling up progress on the known technologies and “vastly scaling up carbon sequestration through forestry to buy us time to also scale up the research and development for the residual emissions”.
“If we want to achieve 1.5C instead of 2C warming, which we know from the science, 2C is exponentially worse than 1.5C, to do that, we can’t afford any of these areas to be going slower than they could,” Skarbek said.
“It’s all in.”
The work updates research the organisation did five years ago on pathways to decarbonisation, and Skarbek said the outlook had improved because of rapid improvements in technology. The new analysis updates modelling for Australia and it develops three Paris agreement-aligned scenarios.
The imminent release of the new analysis comes as Labor’s decision to sign on to a net zero target for 2050 – the opposition’s first major climate policy decision post-election – has prompted the Morrison government to blast Labor for proposing a long-term target in advance of a roadmap to get there.
While the Coalition has been attacking Labor, the government has not ruled out adopting its own 2050 target, and Scott Morrison this week declined to criticise the New South Wales government for adopting a net zero position for 2050.
Morrison told parliament he was happy to work with NSW on its ambition to hit net zero emissions by 2050 because the premier, Gladys Berejiklian, “ha[d] a plan” – although the specific plan the prime minister referenced on Tuesday ends in 2030.
The government will shortly release its own technology roadmap, work that forms part of its deliberations on driving the transition to low emissions. Morrison has said repeatedly he will not commit to any target beyond 2030 without understanding the costs, and the impact on jobs.
More than 70 countries and 398 cities say they have adopted a net zero position. Every Australian state has also signed up to net zero emissions by 2050, and these commitments are expressed either as targets or aspirational goals. The Business Council of Australia, which represents Australia’s biggest companies, also argues Australia should legislate a target of net zero emissions by 2050.
Rio Tinto announced on Wednesday its globe-spanning operations will reach net zero emissions by 2050 and it will spend US$1bn over the next five years to reduce its carbon footprint.

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What Is Climate Change?

Earth Hour - WWF

The climate of a region is its average or typical weather over a period of time. While we may get a cool day in summer, or a warm day in winter, the climate is the long-term picture of conditions.

Kosciuszko National Park, New South Wales. © Gavin Owen / WWF-Aus

Earth’s climate has changed throughout the planet’s 4.5-billion-year history. During this time, conditions have become warmer or cooler at various periods.
Scientific observations show that Earth’s climate has rapidly changed in the last 100 years. The average Australian temperature has climbed to around 1 °C higher. While it might not seem like much, even a slight change can have major impacts on Earth’s delicate balance of ecosystems. With such a rapid change, it doesn’t leave enough time for plants, animals and humans to adapt.

Major causes of climate change

A coal fired power station in Queensland, Australia. © WWF / James Morgan

Human activities, like burning fossil fuels, deforestation and agricultural production are the major cause of climate change. The burning of fossil fuels like oil, gas and coal release carbon dioxide (CO2) which accumulates in the Earth’s atmosphere. Deforestation also releases CO2 as well as reduces the number of trees that are able to absorb excess CO2.
The increase in CO2 and other greenhouse gases make it more difficult for the solar radiation that hits Earth to escape, trapping the heat and raising the overall temperature of the planet’s surface. While the greenhouse effect at natural levels keeps Earth warm and habitable, too much of the greenhouse effect, intensified by human activity, causes the Earth to overheat. This is known as the enhanced greenhouse effect.

Impacts of a warming climate

Drought impact.

The planet’s various regions are not all experiencing the same effects of Earth’s temperature rise at the same time. Many regions are experiencing extreme and unpredictable weather, with some becoming hotter and others becoming colder, wetter or drier.
Scientists have projected that our climate could heat up to as much as 6 °C by the end of the century if carbon emissions aren’t cut back. This increase can break down fragile ecosystems and crucial food chains, and result in widespread rainforest destruction, dramatic sea level rises and greatly increased melting of ice sheets in Greenland and the Antarctic.
This would mean severe suffering for humans and other life on the planet.

Wildlife: Our Earth’s unique wildlife depend on intricate and complex ecosystems to survive. That’s why even a small change to the planet’s climate can disturb nature’s balance and threaten their existence.
People: Humans rely heavily on the natural environment. It provides us life - from the food we harvest and eat, the air we breathe, the water we drink and the everyday products that we consume. Sadly, climate change will impact the poorest and most vulnerable people that contribute the least to global warming.
Ecosystems: Even the smallest change to temperature and rainfall can be damaging for our delicate ecosystems. It can impact the pollination of flowers, change the hibernation and migration patterns of animals and disrupt entire food chains.
Food and Farming: Increasing droughts, longer and more frequent heatwaves, flooding and extreme weather events due to climate change will make it more difficult for farmers to grow crops and graze livestock. This means that the supply of produce will become limited and prices will rise at supermarkets.
Water: With severe droughts and reduced rainfall, we may see shortages to freshwater supplies.
Coastal Erosion: As the Earth continues to warm, ice sheets will melt, causing sea levels to rise dramatically. This will affect coastlines across the globe, causing erosion and residential damage.
Health: The severity of heatwaves may lead to illness and death, especially among the elderly and vulnerable communities. It can also lead to more mosquito-borne diseases due to higher temperatures and increased humidity.
Coral bleaching: Higher ocean temperatures will impact coral reefs and can cause major coral bleaching events like the ones in 2016 and 2017 that destroyed more than one-third of the Great Barrier Reef.

Working for change

WWF understands that climate change poses a fundamental threat to species and people’s livelihoods. We advocate solutions to reduce our carbon emissions and slow down climate change – like switching to renewable energy including solar and wind.

WWF-Australia is committed to:

Limiting global warming to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels by the end of the century
Achieving a net-zero carbon economy in Australia before 2050
Achieving 100% renewable energy in Australia before 2050, including 100% renewable electricity before 2035.

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(AU) Take-Up Of Renewable Energy, Bushfire Crisis Threatening Energy Grid

Sydney Morning Herald - Jennifer Duke

A huge spike in renewables has put the electricity grid under critical pressure at a time when mounting weather crises threaten to undermine the resiliency of the energy system.
The Energy Security Board's annual Health of the National Electricity Market report released on Monday stressed the importance of a resilient electricity system following the bushfire tragedy that ravaged the east coast over summer and warned intense weather will become more common.

Kerry Schott is the head of the Energy Security Board. Its future hangs in the balance. Credit: Louie Douvis

"This needs serious attention in the years ahead as further extreme events including fire, flood and high temperatures can be expected ... The particular specifications and cost of equipment able to withstand these conditions must be re-examined," the report says.
"The increased severity of weather events, especially over summer, coincides with an ageing, and hence less dependable, coal generator fleet."
The report also flagged fears that a bigger take-up of variable renewable and distributed energy resources, such as solar and wind, will make it more difficult to maintain the security of the system. Wind and solar is forecast to make up 40 per cent of national electricity by 2030, up from 16 per cent in 2018-19.
Voltage control is a particular concern for cities where more than 20 per cent of homes have rooftop solar, such as the majority of Perth, Brisbane and Adelaide, where the demand for grid power can drop almost to zero in the middle of the day as solar fills demand. This can change suddenly with changes in weather, the report said.

Melbourne residents face the threat of major blackouts as a heatwave makes its way across the eastern parts of the country.

"Networks must have more visibility of the security of their operations and flexible sources of supply and demand response when it may be quickly needed to maintain both frequency and voltage stability."
The Australian Energy Market Operator had to intervene to maintain system security 75 times in 2018-19 compared to 32 times the year before. Reliability was a particular concern during the height of summer in Victoria, NSW and South Australia.
Total emissions across the national electricity market, which includes Queensland, NSW, ACT, Victoria, Tasmania and South Australia, had fallen 15 per cent since 2005.
There will be a further fall by 2030 under forecasts presented by the council, to 41 per cent below 2005 levels, following the expected closure of older coal and gas plants.
In January the government's leading energy security adviser Kerry Schott, who is chair of the Energy Security Board, said national leadership was needed on emissions as renewables put pressure on the grid. She called for more hydroelectricity, battery storage and gas.
The council expects the Snowy 2.0 project that will complete in the mid-2020s to help reliability in the long-term, as will funds provided by the government to the Clean Energy Finance Corporation.
The report also found that retail prices were declining with affordability improvements largely due to more solar use and energy efficiency.
Energy Minister Angus Taylor said there were ongoing challenges for the sector when it came to maintaining the safety and reliability of electricity supply when wind and solar was not available, noting the report advocated for the development of hydrogen as a commercial industry.
"This recognises the significant opportunities presented by hydrogen," Mr Taylor said.
The NSW and federal governments recently struck a $3 billion deal to increase gas supplies, reduce carbon missions and upgrade the energy grid in an effort to help bridge the gap while the investments in hydrogen, batteries and energy storage increase.
The government has further invested $4 million into a feasibility study for a 1GW "high efficiency, low emissions" coal-fired power station in Collinsville saying it would help meet the power needs of northern Queenslanders. Labor has criticised the decision, saying the private sector have no interest in these expensive projects and taxpayers money shouldn't be used.

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