04/03/2020

(AU) Thousands Of Kilometres Of Australia's Beaches At Risk From Rising Seas

Sydney Morning Herald -  Peter Hannam

More than 12,000 kilometres of Australia's sandy beaches are threatened by coastal erosion by the end of the century, with greater losses predicted if greenhouse gas emissions remain high.
The projections, made by European researchers and published in Nature Climate Change on Tuesday, used satellite data that tracked shoreline change from 1984 to 2015. They found a "substantial proportion" of the world's sandy coastline is already eroded, a trend that could worsen as climate change pushes up sea levels.

Australia's coastline has already seen significant areas of retreat in recent years, such as at Inverloch, in Victoria. Credit: Google News Lab
Under a "moderate" effort to curb emissions - with carbon pollution peaking at 2040 and then declining - at least 12,324 kilometres of Australia's sandy coast will be threatened with erosion by 2100. That tally is the most of any nation, and would amount to about 40 per cent of the country's sandy beaches.
Should greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise through the century - the so-called 8.5 Representative Concentration Pathway - Australia's sandy coastline at risk increases to 15,439 kilometres, the paper said.
"You have a long coastline and part of the coast is very mildly sloping" and is therefore susceptible to erosion, said Michalis Vousdoukas, a coastal oceanographer at the European Commission and the paper's lead author.
"Melbourne is worse than Sydney," Dr Vousdoukas told the Herald and The Age, adding Brisbane and Adelaide's beaches fell between the two in terms of vulnerability to erosion.
The researchers said global sea levels had been increasing "at an accelerated rate during the past 25 years and will continue to do so with climate change".
So far, most of the increase had come from the thermal expansion of warmer water but, by mid-century or so, the increase in sea levels would likely come more from melting ice sheets, Dr Vousdoukas said.
Following the lower emissions pathway would prevent about 22 per cent of the projected coastal retreat by 2050 and 40 per cent of it by 2100. "This corresponds to a global average of around 42 metres of preserved sandy beach width by the end of the century," the paper said.


After the Sydney area experienced its wettest weekend in more than 20 years, beach erosion and massive amounts of sea foam can be seen at Collaroy on the Northern Beaches.

Some nations would be harder hit on a relative basis than Australia, with Suriname, Pakistan, El Salvador and Guinea-Bissau among those countries facing the loss of more than 80 per cent of their sandy coasts.

Stockton, near Newcastle on the NSW coast, is another area where the beach is in retreat. Credit: Google News Lab


Carribean states, for instance, could see beach retreats of more than 300 metres, with "substantial implications" for economies dependent on tourism, the paper found.
Kathleen McInnes, head of CSIRO's coastal extremes group, said the paper was "useful at a macro level", and noted its own limitations such as an exclusion of "backshore" infrastructure such as sea walls that would limit beach retreat in built-up areas.
The paper's assessment, though, that the impacts of big storms would tend to be a "second-order effect" compared with the background effect of remorselessly rising sea levels "was a very plausible finding" and in line with CSIRO's own research, Dr McInnes said.
Still, major storms - which climate scientists predict will become more intense as the atmosphere warms - can be important.
Narrabeen on Sydney's northern beaches is among the most vulnerable near the Harbour City.
LEFT September 2003                                           RIGHT April 2019
Credit: Google News Lab
"Storm erosion is typically followed by beach recovery but some events may leave a footprint that takes decades to recover [from], if at all, while the additional shoreline retreat renders the backshore more vulnerable to episodic coastal flooding and its consequences," the paper said.

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Want People To Care About Climate Change? Skip The Jargon.

Grist

Grist
If you’re confused what the “circular economy” is, or what it means for a company to go “net-zero,” you’re far from alone. There’s a big mismatch between what scientists, journalists, and activists are saying and what the public understands. This is hardly a new problem, but it’s yet another obstacle to getting people to care about climate change: Obscure words in articles about rising sea levels and supercharged weather could discourage people from wanting to learn more about a planetary crisis.

The solution is to put jargon and buzzwords into simple language that anyone can understand. It takes some effort, of course. A good example is “Up Goer Five,” a diagram by Randall Monroe, the cartoonist behind the website xkcd. It explains how a rocket works using only the 1,000 most common words in the English language. Simplifying lingo related to climate change requires a similar process. Take a cold, clinical word like “biodiversity” and turn it into the more evocative “wildlife.” A real head-scratcher like “climate mitigation” becomes “reducing emissions.”

Forget “dumbing down.” Using more common language is “smartening up,” said Susan Joy Hassol, director of the nonprofit science outreach group Climate Communication in North Carolina, who coaches scientists and journalists to write and speak more conversationally. “The only thing that’s dumb,” Hassol said, “is speaking to people in language that they don’t understand.”

Jargon is good way to kill someone’s interest in a particular topic, according to research published this month in PLOS ONE, a science and medicine journal. Readers take it as a sign that the material isn’t for them. For the study at Ohio State University, 650 people read paragraphs about self-driving cars, surgical robots, and 3D bioprinting online. Half of them read paragraphs filled with cringe-worthy phrases (like “AI integration”), while the other half read phrases translated into plain English (make that “programming”). After they were finished, those subjected to obscure words said they felt less interested in science — even when those words were defined.

When something is easy to read, people find they want to learn more about the subject, said Hillary Shulman, lead author of the study and an assistant professor of communication at Ohio State. Her research has shown that people are more receptive to information written in plain old print instead of cursive, just because it’s easier to process. Avoiding jargon matters, she said, for anyone who wants to get their message to a broad audience.

“If you limit your work to the people who really work hard to read it, you’re probably missing out on the audience you actually need to be reading the work,” Shulman said. “You don’t need the people who are already bought in.”

Jargon doesn’t just leave people feeling disengaged — it can also fuel a head-in-the-sand response, according to one of Shulman’s previous studies. Encountering new things often feels difficult and risky, she said, and many people naturally respond by coming up with counterarguments.

Research shows that the best way to communicate about science might just be … to talk like a normal human being. One study published last week found that when scientists showed their human side and told personal stories, their audience was more receptive to what they were saying. Linguistics has shown something similar: You were probably taught to cut all filler words like uh, um, and like, but they can serve an important role in communication, helping listeners process complex information. And despite common wisdom that baby-talk is useless — just talk to them like adults, am I right? — recent studies suggest that over-enunciating words and using a sing-song voice actually helps babies acquire language. Good communication isn’t necessarily about sounding smart.

So how could scientists and journalists talk more like the average person? Hassol has assembled a list of about 150 terms that mean one thing to scientists and another to the general public. To most people, “positive feedback” means praise, but when scientists say the same phrase, they’re talking about a vicious cycle. Similarly, “aerosols” are not just cans of hair spray and sunscreen, but also tiny particles in the atmosphere.

Scientists use all this specialized terminology because for them, it’s efficient — one word gets across a complex concept. But then scientists pass these same esoteric words on to journalists, who then turn them on an unsuspecting public. And it’s not just academics complicating the climate lexicon: Politicians, companies, and activists use buzzwords that most people don’t understand, too.

I begged people on Twitter to tell me what words tripped them up the most while reading climate change articles, then asked Hassol to help me break down some of the most insidious terms. Here’s a short list of the jargon and buzzwords that came up, along with some plain-English translations to help make sense of them.
  • Carbon footprint: How much carbon-dioxide emissions can you attribute to a country, company, or maybe your neighbor? The answer is their carbon footprint.
  • Circular economy: A system where nothing really gets thrown away. In other words, your old smartphone gets broken up into its different parts and recycled — or more likely, you’re repairing it.
  • Climate adaptation: Improving our ability to cope with climate change. Think building sea walls, breeding crops that can tolerate droughts, and restoring the natural course of rivers. (See “resilience” below.)
  • Environmental justice: A phrase underscoring the broad idea that the people who did the least to cause climate change and pollution are the often the most at risk from the consequences.
  • Just transition: Shifting to an economy that runs on solar and wind energy without killing jobs.
  • Geoengineering: Using technology to try to counteract some of the warming caused by burning coal, oil, and gas. Like spraying tiny particles in the air to reflect the sunlight back into space so it doesn’t heat up the planet.
  • Net-zero: Canceling out the carbon dioxide we emit by making sure that the same amount gets sucked up by trees, plants, machines, or other things. (See: Offset.)
  • Offset: Something you buy that promises to cancel some or all of the carbon dioxide produced by, say, your next cross-country flight.
  • Resilience: Our ability to deal with climate change’s effects. Simply put, a more resilient New York City will be better able to withstand another Superstorm Sandy.
  • Sustainable: Using a resource in a way that won’t deplete it. Example: Making sure a forest has a bunch of new trees growing before you cut down an old one.
As they get picked up by companies and politicians, slippery buzzwords like “sustainability” and “resilience” are starting to lose their meaning. Deploying them now might even backfire. During testimony in the Senate last year, Frank Luntz — a messaging strategist who advises Republicans and advocates for climate action — said that “sustainability” rings of the “status quo.” He explained: “What American people really want is something that is cleaner, safer, healthier. What they’re asking for is improvement, not the status quo.”

Acronyms also get in the way of making sense. A recent study in the Proceedings of the National Academies of Sciences considered how to transform society to take action on climate change. In the paper, scientists coined the phrase “social tipping interventions,” which they went on to call STIs. That means something, uh, totally different to the rest of the population.

Hassol, who was the senior science writer on three U.S. National Climate Assessments, remembers one instance in which some scientists wanted to abbreviate the spruce bark beetle that’s destroying forests across the American West as “SBB.” Hassol thought that was nuts. Why not just use its full name once, she suggested, and then refer to it as “the beetle” after that? She also thinks it’s better to call the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge in Alaska, where oil companies have been angling to drill for decades, by its full name — not ANWR, pronounced an-whar. The acronym doesn’t exactly make caribou or indigenous culture spring to mind.

“When you put an acronym on something, it loses its power,” Hassol said.

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Australia's Summer Of 2019-20 Country's Second-Hottest On Record


Country is heating more rapidly than the global average, with a rise of 4C expected by 2100, Bureau of Meteorology says
The summer of 2019-20 was the second hottest summer on record in Australia after last year. December 2019 delivered the worst bushfire conditions since 1950. Photograph: Bianca de Marchi/AAP
The summer just finished was Australia’s second-hottest on record, with the temperature 1.88C above average, the Bureau of Meteorology says.
The only hotter summer on record was the previous year, which was 2.14C above average. Temperatures this summer were above average across almost the entire country.
Dr Blair Trewin, a senior climatologist with the bureau, said the hot summer, which was marked by the unprecedented bushfire crisis that devastated communities and wildlife in much of the country, was part of a long-term warming trend that had seen the country warm by 1.4C since 1910. Most of that warming has come since 1950.
Trewin said: “That tells us the baseline is higher, and with that you have a higher risk of high extremes like we have seen in the past two summers. Our baseline expectation now is for warmer than average summers, and other seasons more generally.”
The heat records are relative to the long-term average for the years between 1961 and 1990.
The bureau’s summer report came as its officials told a Senate estimates hearing in Canberra that Australia is heating more rapidly than the global average.
Karl Braganza, the head of climate monitoring, was asked how much Australia was projected to warm, given a scientific analysis involving the World Meteorological Organisation last year found average global temperatures were expected to rise between 2.9C and 3.4C by 2100 under commitments put forward by national governments as part of the Paris agreement.
Braganza said the increase in Australia would be expected to be “closer to 4C” heating than the global average under that scenario, assuming countries did not do more than promised in Paris.
Adam Bandt, the Greens leader, said the government was undertaking no planning for the possibility of 4C warming in Australia. “Australia saw this horrific bushfire season with just over one degree of warming. We’re hurtling towards 4C and it’s only going to get worse from here,” he said.
This summer saw many more heat records broken than cool records. The bureau data shows 43 sites in NSW broke high temperature records but only five sites saw record lows. In Queensland, there were 10 heat records broken across different monitoring stations, but only one record for cool weather.
The 2018-19 summer also saw below average rainfall across the country, with western NSW, south-western Queensland and the Top End particularly dry. Some areas, including Western Australia’s west coast, and parts of the east coast, saw above average rainfall.
The second hottest summer comes after the bureau declared 2019 the hottest and driest year on record.

Annual mean temperature anomaly, Australia
Temperature anomaly is the difference between the average temperature
from 1961–1990 and the average temperature in a given year


Data from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology shows 2019 was the hottest year on record.
Guardian graphic | Source: Bureau of Meterology
Trewin said the summer could be characterised as a season “of two halves”.
“We had December and the first few days of January, which was extremely hot almost nationwide, and extremely dry. Those heat extremes in December and early January were quite exceptional,” he said.
That exceptional heat included 17 and 18 December, when on two consecutive days Australia recorded its hottest day on record. The national average temperature on 18 December was 41.9C – one whole degree hotter than the previous day.
December 2019 also delivered the worst conditions for bushfires on a record going back to 1950.
Several records were broken for warmest summer nights in NSW, Victoria and Queensland. On 1 February, nighttime temperatures in the rural area of Condobolin, west of Dubbo, NSW, did not drop below 34.7C.
Aside from climate change, there were natural drivers of the heat in the early part of the summer. Trewin said in December and early January, the weather patterns were influenced by a strong Indian Ocean Dipole that had dragged moisture away from the continent and a “strongly negative Southern Annular Mode”.
But as both these systems moved into a neutral phase, the rest of January and February was less extreme.
Rainfall for January and February was slightly above average, Trewin said, but the extreme dry of December meant that across the three months rainfall was below average.
But 10 February still delivered record rainfall for some parts of NSW. At Taralga, 100km west of Wollongong, the town had its wettest summer day on record with 197mm beating the previous record of 130mm, set in 1885.
While the bureau’s report does not cover ocean temperatures, the hot summer has also seen the build-up of heat stress on the Great Barrier Reef, with scientists fearing a third mass coral bleaching event in the past five years if temperatures don’t fall in the next few days.

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