15/07/2020

(AU) The Case For Sustainable Communities: Three Big Ideas To Future-Proof Australia

UNSW - Peter Sheldon

Business leaders can mitigate the adverse impacts of climate change by generating thousands of jobs in renewable energy, which can, in turn, help build more sustainable communities across the country


Professor Peter Sheldon is Director of the Industrial Relations Research Centre, University of New South Wales
With Australia's coal-fired power stations set to close in the next two to three decades, Australia has the potential and opportunity to become a renewable energy superpower. But this depends in no small degree on the financial support and backing of business.

So how can business contribute to sustainable communities? This question was posed to a panel of experts as part of the Future-Proofing Business Series recently hosted by UNSW Business School's Responsible Business Program. Panelists discussed how businesses could take the lead in managing climate risk in the short and long term, what a sustainable community looks like, and the role of business in achieving this.

The speakers included Ursula Hogben, Co-Founder and Company Secretary at Zero Emissions Sydney North, Dr Jennifer Kent, from City of Sydney Council, Dr Paul Twomey, Centre for Energy and Environmental Markets UNSW Sydney, and Peter Sheldon, Professor in the School of Management and Director of the Industrial Relations Research Centre at UNSW Business School.

All speakers agreed climate leadership is shifting from government to business in Australia. New opportunities exist for both companies and communities in localised collaboration to create employment opportunities, modernise infrastructure and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The panel discussed three ways businesses might help support local communities to create a better future for all:

1. Support community-led initiatives

Kicking off the panel discussion, Dr Kent said businesses need to be looking at how we can flatten the 'unsustainability curve' – the acceleration of unsustainable practices around the world, and the existential challenges that we're facing as a result.

She also said COVID-19 offered some examples of what is possible. "People went to some interesting partices such as bread making and [planting] vegetable gardens," Dr Kent explained. "These localised practices are characteristic of sustainability movements around the world.”

Planting vegetable gardens are examples of localised practices that are characteristic of sustainability movements around the world. Image: Shutterstock

So what is a sustainable community? Dr Kent explained that this involves: ecological integrity, ecological security, social wellbeing, civic engagement and the democratisation of decision-making. But it would also require "moving away from business as usual" and thinking about sustainability as much more than a simple tick-box experience, and "actually embedding sustainability within the corporate culture," Dr Kent said.

Businesses collaborating with communities would be essential because communities across Australia are in the best position to know precisely what those communities need, Ursula Hogben explained. "So, with community-led initiatives, we've got, ideally, local skills and local jobs meeting local needs now and in the future," she said.

Examples of successful localised cooperation in Australia were seen earlier in the year when devastating fires destroyed lives, communities, wildlife and infrastructure. With flooding and storms then adding to the damage, hundreds of properties were running diesel generators and faced lengthy delays before regular services resumed.

During this time, the Resilient Energy Collective – a collaborative effort funded by the family office of Mike and Annie Cannon-Brookes – installed solar systems provided by 5B and batteries solutions provided by Tesla in communities unable to access energy via the grid, Ms Hogben recounted.

"Very swiftly, there was a significant issue with rural and remote communities having access to power. So in Tobago, they [the Resilient Energy Collective] helped with 24-hour electricity to man the emergency power of the emergency community towers – and that was for the police, fire services and emergency crews communication," Ms Hogben explained.
"There is a huge ecosystem business desperate to get a level of support and consistent messaging because they are completely committed to becoming a part of the new wave"
Professor Peter Sheldon, Director of the Industrial Relations Research Centre, UNSW Business School
Another example was the transformation of the Newcastle and Hunter Valley region from a coal energy hub to a renewable energy hub, Ms Hogben explained. Molycop – the world's largest mining and rail consumables manufacturer – signed a long-term Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) with energy retailer Flow Power, and under the agreement, Molycop's expected offtake of renewable energy is 100,000 MWh per year.

This covers more than half of its electricity consumption in NSW and makes Molycop one of the largest purchasers of renewable energy in Australia.

"That's a considerable supplier of jobs in the area which is now looking at being part of the green steel revolution, which is important from a business perspective, low emissions perspective, and a community perspective in terms of the environment and also the economy," said Ms Hogben.

Finally, she cited South Australia's Port Augusta hybrid wind and solar project, which established a significant increase in the share of wind and solar in the state's grid. The repowering of Port Augusta aims to replace the Northern and Playford brown coal power plants with renewable energy: six solar thermal power towers and 90 wind turbines to provide secure, affordable electricity to South Australia and the Eastern Australian grid.

This will lead to the creation of hundreds of jobs, a major reduction in pollution and a significant move forward in terms of what's possible for powering manufacturing, added Ms Hogben.

2. Create employment by modernising infrastructure

So, job creation plays a vital role in sustainable communities, but to what extent should businesses take part? There is an opportunity for businesses to advance the discussion, creating sustainable communities and sustainable job creation, according to Prof. Peter Sheldon.

Creating renewable energy infrastructure will lead to the creation of jobs, a reduction in pollution and a move forward in powering manufacturing. Image: Shutterstock

While job quality – which encompasses wages, excellent conditions and job security – is incredibly important in setting up sustainable communities, so is access to decent work. "Decent work is work that provides meaning and complexity to make it interesting and engaging, access to training and development for workers, as well as access to trade union rights and collective bargaining rights," he explained.

So how can businesses support future decent work and good jobs to make communities more sustainable? For Sheldon, it's a matter of acting quickly and supporting job growth in areas where they are desperately needed – for example, in the process of closing down the 23 coal-fired power plants in Australia that are nearing the end of their lives.

The shutting down of these power plants could be utilised as an opportunity for job creation and reskilling the current workforce. "Every time you decommission a coal-fired power station or a coal mine there is work for 10-15 years just in the remediation and potential rehabilitation of the site," explained Prof. Sheldon.

"These are similar jobs in terms of skills in the coal mines, or in the petrol stations that are operating heavy machinery. There's no reason why they shouldn't pay the same amount or any reason why they shouldn't provide the same job security or access to training and development," he said.

"I think it's more important to start with what we can easily do and where we can get consensus relatively quickly," he added.

Building 90 gigawatts of solar and wind energy over the next five years would create thousands of jobs each year. Source: Beyond Zero Emissions

3. Business must back a reduction in carbon emissions

In Australia, the major obstacles to building more sustainable communities are the policies of the Federal Government, Sheldon explained. However, to some extent, business is also responsible.

"There are some business associations like the Business Council who have been lukewarm in pushing the government for a consistent approach to bring in climate-friendly energy policies," he said.

But at the same time, he said there is also "a huge ecosystem of businesses looking for government support" that want to contribute to sustainable communities, and that is working to overcome "federal government paralysis" on climate change.

"There is a huge ecosystem of businesses desperate to get a level of support and consistent messaging because they are completely committed to becoming a part of the new wave," he said.

And at this extraordinary time, with massive stimulus spending, there's a real opportunity to create resilience and sustainability within communities, by supporting renewable energy businesses in manufacturing, regenerative farming, regenerating mining land, planting trees and land restoration, added Ms Hogben.

"Businesses can help by offering finance… by making an ideological shift to more financing of renewable and sustainable projects," she said.

Ending the session, Dr Paul Twomey reminded the audience that while there are several encouraging stories of industries moving towards sustainability, an important question to ask is: are we achieving success at the speed and scale we need to?

"It's not clear to me that it is," said Dr Twomey, who said the change would require more in-depth thinking about capitalism, democracy and sustainability. "It's not entirely clear to me that it can happen in the scale that it needs to be," he added.

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(AU) A Path To Climate Consensus

National Security College - Richard Yetsenga

 This article is part of the Futures Forecasting series. We’ve asked experts to identify crucial trends – from a shortlist of categories – that will influence national security out to 2035 and how those trends might intersect in a future scenario.

 In this article, which explores the future of globalisation, Richard Yetsenga concludes that facing the existential challenges of climate change, national governments will reorient to address the challenge in a cooperative and concerted manner.



Key trends

  • The National Security College is a joint initiative of the Commonwealth Government and the Australian National University.
  • Richard Yetsenga is Chief Economist and Head of Research at ANZ. In this role, he leads the Bank’s economic and markets research efforts, with a focus on Australia, New Zealand and Asia.
1. Economics and Identity: Increasing inequality within national populations will make the social contract between governments and citizens increasingly fragile

Global inequality between countries has improved dramatically over the last few decades as poverty has declined, and the middle class has grown. Within countries, however, inequality has generally worsened.

Combined with trends such as the automation of manufacturing jobs and the rise of social media, inequality has already caused shifts in voter behaviour in many countries, leading to the election of populists and nationalists. However, these leaders have by-and-large failed to address inequality problems.

The COVID-19 pandemic will exacerbate the trend of inequality. Across most countries, the poor have suffered disproportionately from the virus – and lock-down measures to contain it. Loss of employment due to the pandemic has disproportionately impacted the young, and will be most acutely felt by the poorest.

The challenge of balancing families and working from home is disproportionately affecting women, as are job losses in services industries which are typically dominated by women. Rates of infection and death have disproportionately impacted ethnic minorities and those living in areas with higher levels of air pollution.

Conversely, many economic recovery policy responses, particularly in advanced economies, have disproportionately benefitted holders of financial assets, who are often older and wealthier.

2. Black Elephant: Impacts of climate change will become more severe and observable, leading to stronger calls for climate action from diverse interest groups

Manifestations of climate change have become more obvious in recent times. Antarctica’s record highest monthly temperature was set in January 2020, 2019 was Australia’s hottest and driest year on record, and 25 July 2019 was the hottest recorded day in the UK. For Australia, the catastrophic Black Summer bushfire season increased the salience and urgency of addressing climate change in public discourse and national security debates.

But concern about climate change will arguably explode as a result of COVID-19. Scientists have been warning of the link between climate change and pandemics for some time. The COVID-19 crisis can, therefore, be framed as a climate crisis.

As of 2020, there is limited concerted, collective action by national governments from both the developed and developing world to reduce the amount of carbon in the atmosphere. Given this, citizens and businesses are likely to suffer the consequences of more strategic shocks that relate to climate. COVID-19 is a stark instance of how damaging it can be when the natural environment behaves in a way we are not accustomed to.

Climate protest movements, already rising in frequency and participation, could become even more mainstream and influential as 2035 approaches.

3. Sovereignty: Lack of leadership by national governments in the face of existential global challenges will prove unsustainable

National governments are struggling to find ways to address ‘problems without borders’, with significant costs to the environment, global stability and their own citizens’ economic wellbeing and health.

Different nations have adopted very strongly-held, competing visions of the world and their place in it. As of 2020, we are seeing a trend towards a ‘G-Zero world’ – that is, a world with a global leadership vacuum, and where coordinating bodies like the G20 and G7 are losing relevance.

China and the US and their respective allies see themselves as strategic competitors and find it increasingly difficult to cooperate on shared challenges. Responsibility for the source of COVID-19 has widened pre-existing cracks into crevasses.

In 1985, Ronald Reagan asked Mikhail Gorbachev whether Soviet Russia would come to the United States’ aid if it was attacked by aliens. Gorbachev’s response was “no doubt about it”. Reagan responded “we too”. An alien lifeform has attacked, and the great powers have decided to battle the aliens as well as each other.

While this response could be a cause for pessimism, it is also a stark demonstration of the need for renewed cooperation. It will drive increased demand for leadership and collective action from across and within societies.

2035 future forecast

Staring down the risk of mutually assured climate-destruction, and increasingly dissatisfied populations, by 2035 the world will experience a reorientation. National governments will set aside goals and beliefs previously held to be non-negotiable to respond to the global crisis in a more cooperative manner.
  • In the near-term, humankind is likely to continue down a path which risks mutually assured climate-destruction. Solutions to the trends identified in this post – from climate change to pandemic preparedness – require global cooperation and alignment of objectives.
    Additionally, near-term reactions to economic inequality, such as experiments with nationalism and populism, are tending to exacerbate the global leadership vacuum, making meaningful action to address climate change even more difficult
  • As this near-term path is ultimately unsustainable, a reorientation in the next 15 years is likely.
    The timing and manner are open questions. It might be driven by citizen protest or business efforts, or a realisation by national governments that they cannot maintain power and legitimacy without delivering public goods to citizens.
    Increasingly, middle and smaller powers are forming coalitions of the willing in an attempt to find agreement. As the costs to these countries of climate inaction rise, they are likely to play a higher-profile role in driving change.
  • However, cooperation may not be entirely fair, and there will be winners and losers.
    There will be a ‘prisoners’ dilemma’ in play. Players will need to set aside some national priorities and interests and instead choose to pursue a higher common purpose to ensure the wellbeing of their citizens and economies. But the costs and gains of climate action will not necessarily be shared.
    The past decade has been challenging for many smaller economies as they navigate the tension between their legacy diplomatic and security relationships, and their deepening economic relationship with China.
    These countries in particular will need to deftly manage relationships with big players to ensure their populations do not disproportionately bear the costs of climate action.
  • There is no guarantee that cooperation will extend beyond averting climate crisis, the most pressing challenge.
    In the interim, international engagement, approaches to foreign investment, foreign aid, and the sources of future prosperity are now seemingly inextricably interlinked. Decisions in one area increasingly have implications for the others.
    Recognising the requirement to co-operate on climate, however, could spark a recognition of the gains from cooperation more generally.
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Insights Into Climate Change During Origin Of Dinosaurs

Phys.org - University of Utah

A dinosaur-like reptile leaves muddy footprints along the shoreline of a lake during a rainstorm some 234 million years ago in northwestern Argentina. Credit: Jorge Gonzalez/NHMU
 
The Triassic Period, about 252 to 201 million years ago, was a time of volatile change, particularly during an interval known as the Carnian (about 237 to 227 million years ago).

Three dramatic events occurred on Earth: the first dinosaurs appeared, gigantic volcanic eruptions called the Wrangellia large igneous province spewed out greenhouse gasses and the climate suddenly shifted to warmer, more humid conditions that scientists call the Carnian Pluvial Episode (CPE).

Recent work suggests that the Wrangellia eruptions caused the CPE, and that the resulting climate change may have spurred the early diversification of dinosaurs. But the lack of precise absolute dates for many Carnian sediments makes comparisons difficult.

Additionally, few detailed paleoclimatic data exist for many regions outside of Europe, making it unclear whether the CPE was truly a global climate event or conclusively linking it to dinosaur diversification.

In a new study in the journal Gondwana Research, an international group led by Adriana Mancuso, a National Scientific and Technical Research Council (CONICET) researcher at the Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales in Mendoza, Argentina, demonstrated that the CPE affected the southern hemisphere, specifically South America, which strengthens the case that it was a global climate event. The study was published online on June 15, 2020.

"There are ample Triassic, and specifically Carnian, rocks and fossils in South America, and Argentina in particular, but until now there were no paleoclimatic studies that could conclusively show that the Carnian Pluvial Episode occurred in the ," Mancuso said.

Photos (left) and 3D models (right) of dinosaur-like footprints from the Los Rastros Formation in the study area in northwestern Argentina. Credit: Randall Irmis/NHMU

The team, which included researchers at the University of Utah and the Berkeley Geochronology Center, studied Carnian rocks of the Los Rastros Formation, which are preserved in the Ischigualasto-Villa Unión Basin in northwest Argentina. For the first time, the team precisely dated preserved in lake sediments and pieced together the paleoclimate at this time.

"Our study focused on these rocks because they had the perfect combination of a good fossil record, dateable ash layers, and rich climate data preserved in lake sediments," said Randall Irmis of the Natural History Museum of Utah and Department of Geology & Geophysics at the University of Utah.

In order to date the ash layer, the scientists isolated small needle-like crystals of zircon, minerals that act like time-capsules. When zircon crystallizes during an eruption, it traps the element uranium in its crystal structure, but never incorporates lead. Any lead preserved in the crystals today is a result of the radioactive decay of uranium.

Because scientists know this decay rate, they can measure the ratio of uranium and lead in each zircon crystal and calculate how far back in time the crystals formed. In the present study, this measurement was done on a precise mass spectrometer at the Berkeley Geochronology Center.

Co-authors Adriana Mancuso (left) and Cecilia Benavente (right), along with colleagues, examine dinosaur-like footprints in the Los Rastros Formation at the study area in northwestern Argentina. Credit: Randall Irmis

The scientists then obtained paleoclimatic data by looking at detailed features in the sediments— the types of clay preserved, and carbon and oxygen isotopes in freshwater limestone layers. With these measurements, the researchers estimated temperature, humidity and aridity and observed a distinct interval of particularly warm and .

Based on the absolute date from the same strata, they concluded that it matched in time with the CPE in the northern hemisphere. By using a variety of different analyses, the resulting paleoclimate inferences were more robust than previous assertions made from a single line of evidence.

This warm/humid interval also fortuitously includes layers that preserve fossil footprints of early dinosaurs or their closest relatives.

"Our study suggests that the appearance of dinosaurs in South America could be linked to the CPE, but the data available worldwide remains inconclusive. To make a more robust global link between the CPE and dinosaur diversification will require many more detailed studies of paleoclimate with precise ages like we were able to do for the Los Rastros Formation in Argentina," concluded Mancuso.

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