04/08/2020

‘A Tsunami In The Sky’: Climate Change Is Melting Bhutan’s Glaciers And The Danger Is Real

CNA - Jack Board

Bhutan's glacial lakes are ethereal, but many are dangerous. (Photo: NCHM)

THIMPHU: High up in the mountains of Bhutan’s north, ancient glaciers punctuate a stunning, ethereal landscape. This landscape is a special one, enwrapped in myth and mystery.

It is pristine land, largely untouched by humanity. Culture-driven conservation has endured here.

The region’s tallest peaks have never been scaled by man, nor have its picturesque lakes been disturbed. It is out of respect - locals believe the mountains, lakes and glaciers are deities, to be honoured and feared.

Yet it is the impacts of manmade global emissions that is slowly destroying them nonetheless. Rising temperatures as a result of climate change is accelerating the rate of glacial melt in Bhutan’s highlands. In the silence of the mountain, now, danger looms - a killer that could unleash at any moment.

Glaciers are spiritually important for Bhutan, as well as being a critical resource. (Photo: NCHM)

For some glaciers, annual retreat levels are up to 35m, feeding massive amounts of water into surrounding lakes. The risk of these lakes collapsing - in a phenomenon known as a glacial lake outburst flood or GLOF - has the entire country on edge.

“With global warming, glaciers are melting and our water resources are moving faster downstream. We call it a tsunami in the sky, that can come anytime,” said Karma Drupchu, the national director of the country’s National Center for Hydrology & Meteorology (NCHM).

“Any kind of breach will result in a huge flood coming down the stream. It will have huge consequences because more than 70 per cent of Bhutan settlements are along the river valleys ... not only loss of life, but huge economic loss,” he said.

There are 17 glacial lakes in Bhutan considered potentially dangerous and at risk of bursting. (Photo: NCHM)

Analysis by NCHM has identified 2674 glacial lakes, of which 17 are categorised as potentially dangerous. Further accelerated melting of the country’s 700 individual glaciers means more lakes are being formed and the dangers for the country’s population and infrastructure is increasing.

Bhutan is the only carbon negative country in the world and it takes its role in preventing global climate change seriously. The country’s constitution mandates the protection of the environment and economically lucrative but environmentally damaging industries have been rejected in favour of conservation.

But the brunt of climate change has arrived regardless of this small nation’s resistance. For Prime Minister Lotay Tshering, the impact on glaciers is both a physical and spiritual burden for Bhutan to carry.

Warm summers and a lack of snow in winters is resulting in greater glacial declines. (Photo: Jack Board)

“It concerns us a lot because from a spiritual point of view, it’s not just a pool of water. Spiritually, we believe that there is life in it, we respect that and environmentally it is a fact that we are losing our glaciers to global warming,” he told CNA in an exclusive interview.

“We’re under constant threat and that is the most unfair part.”

He added: “Glaciers that are lost, are lost forever. How many lives, not just human beings, but other lives are dependent on that? Not just the country and the economy but the whole lifecycle will be destroyed. but soon in coming generations there may not be any lakes to burst. That would be a real disaster”.

About 70 per cent of Bhutan's settlements are along the river valleys. (Photo: Jack Board)

GLOFs have happened before in Bhutan and the impact remains in the memories of those who have experienced such a disaster. Small incidents are relatively common in the lakes region, but the last major event to crescendo towards populated areas was back in 1994.



Doley, a former head of Richena village in Punakha remembers that day well. After Luggye Lake burst, vast amounts of floodwaters tore down the Pho Chhu River, bringing with it damaging debris.

“I was right here in the village, in my house. Suddenly an old relative who was living with us at the time, frantically screamed at me to look out of the window. I dashed to the window and looked below. What I saw terrified me, the 75-year-old recounted.

The village of Richena was hit by a damaging flood in 1994. (Photo: Jack Board)

“The river had swollen to a dark and muddy river and upon it sat hundreds of fresh uprooted trees and logs including large swathes of undergrowth. I was beyond petrified that it was going to destroy lives and properties and there was nothing I could do,” he said.

Twenty five years ago, there was no warning for villagers living along the river. The 1994 flood killed 21 people and caused extensive damage to agricultural land, destroyed houses and wiped out fish stocks in the river.

Early Warning System In Place

Since then, scientists have more closely examined the lakes and the impacts of temperature on their stability.

Now, a sophisticated early-warning system is installed throughout the lake and river system to give people the best chance to act before a flood hits.

The bridge at Punakha's iconic dzong would be at risk from a future GLOF. (Photo: Jack Board)

“They are worried. They know the glacial lake is going to burst at any time due to global warming,” said Tshewang Phuntsho, an officer from the Department of Disaster Management in Punakha.

“But at the same time, we are also prepared,” he added, explaining that simulation drills and awareness campaigns are building resilience among at-risk populations.

Glaciologists at NCHM have also been physically examining the dangerous lakes on an annual basis. Some require even more intense monitoring - like Thorthormi Lake in the Lunana region, which is considered the most volatile glacial lake in Bhutan.

Locals say they are worried about the risks of GLOFs, but preparations are better than in the past. (Photo: Jack Board)

Two personnel are stationed permanently near its edge to visually monitor any changes or risks. The nearby community would have only an estimated 30 minutes to evacuate in the event of an outburst.

“Some lakes are nearly impossible to reach there. But most of the potentially dangerous ones, we went there and did the ground checks”, said NCHM executive geologist, Phuntsho Tshering.

“As a glaciologist and a scientist, seeing them is quite scary. If something pushes down, the barriers cannot hold. We know something is happening up there, it’s not safe, it’s critical,” he said.

Bhutan wants to continue to tap the potential of its water resources, despite the risks. (Photo: Jack Board)

Despite recent efforts to lower the lake’s levels using a team of physical labourers with handpicks and other simple tools in the freezing waters, there are few viable options to mitigate the dangers.

Nearly all of the lakes are at high altitude where temperature increases are amplified compared to low-lying areas.

Record temperatures were recorded in 2019 around Bhutan’s most dangerous glacial lakes, 4,500m above sea level.

Warmer summers and winters without snow is contributing to the glacial decline and extreme rain events in the Himalayas is adding pressure to lake capacity.

If Thorthormi was to burst, there are dire forecasts about the resulting damage to the small but fertile valleys downriver, which Bhutanese rely upon - 70 per cent of the country’s population depends on subsistence agriculture.

Forested areas could be wiped out and significant religious buildings such as the Punakha dzong could face devastation.

National modelling suggests river flows could be severely compromised by 2050 due to climate change. (Photo: Jack Board)

Hydropower Sector At Risk

Perhaps even more crucially is the risk to Bhutan’s hydropower sector, which the national economy has come to overwhelmingly rely upon as a major revenue driver via exports to neighbouring India.

Clean energy is also one of the ways Bhutan is offsetting regional emissions. A powerful GLOF could wreak havoc on critical power-generating infrastructure.

“Our biggest revenue is from hydropower as of today and the hydropower we have is very highly climate dependent. We have realised that and we are a little worried about that,” the prime minister said.

Two of the biggest and most crucial projects are being constructed on the same system, downriver from Thorthormi Lake - the 1200 megawatt Punatsangchu-I and 1020 megawatt Punatsangchu-II.

Both are run-of-river, meaning that they rely on natural flow to generate electricity. With projections that the flow of rivers in Bhutan may be majorly compromised by 2050 due to shifting rain patterns, this approach may need to change.

Hydropower is Bhutan's most important industry. (Photo: Jack Board)

The most ambitious hydropower project in Bhutan’s history - more than twice as large as any other - will be different.

The Sankosh dam will be built as a large-scale reservoir, environmentally more disruptive, but more resilient to climate change. It is a tough concession to make in a nation that has vigorous screening of all of its infrastructure projects through the Gross National Happiness Commission.

Despite a triple threat - from GLOFS, earthquakes and river reliability - the government is keen to press on.

“Sankosh would be one mega hydropower project we’d like to start and then see how it does for the next decade or so. If the climate change becomes more dependable, if it settles down a bit, we can embark onto the next project. We have to be very careful with this,” said the prime minister.

“Water is the only possible resource that we have to generate because of conservation efforts,” said Drupchu of NCHM.

“We could go for logging and become rich, but the conservation and protection of the environment is the top priority. If you don’t utilise the water, it will automatically flow down. The money is more or less flowing. So why don’t we tap it?”

Scientists describe the situation as "scary" at high-altitude lakes. (Photo: Jack Board)

Whether these decisions prove to be prudent will depend on nature. Like a coastal community on alert for a future tsunami, life must go on. But there is trepidation.

Every time a Bhutanese scientist begins work at a glacial lake, there will be prayers and offerings to the deity believed to be contained within. It is both a cultural duty and a cautionary measure.

“We appeal to them that we are not doing this for fun,” said Tshering, the geologist. “This is for safeguarding the people.”

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(AU) Under Climate Change, Winter Will Be The Best Time For Bush Burn-Offs – And That Could Be Bad News For Public Health

The Conversation -  |  | 
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AAP Image/Supplied by State Control Centre Media/News Corp Australia, Jason Edwards

At the height of last summer’s fires, some commentators claimed “greenies” were preventing hazard reduction burns – also known as prescribed burns – in cooler months. They argued that such burns would have reduced the bushfire intensity.

Fire experts repeatedly dismissed these claims. As then NSW Rural Fire Service Commissioner Shane Fitzsimmons noted in January this year, the number of available days to carry out prescribed burns had reduced because climate change was altering the weather and causing longer fire seasons.

This public conversation led our research team to ask: if climate change continues at its current rate, how will this change the days suitable for prescribed burning?

Our results, published today, were unexpected. Climate change may actually increase the number of burn days in some places, but the windows of opportunity will shift towards winter months. The bad news is that burning during these months potentially increases the public health impacts of smoke.

A hot debate

Hazard reduction involves removing vegetation that could otherwise fuel a fire, including burning under controlled conditions. But its effectiveness to subdue or prevent fires is often debated in the scientific community.


Commissioner Fitzsimmons weighs in on a national debate about hazard-reduction burns.

Those with experience on fire grounds, including Fitzsimmons, say it’s an important factor in fire management, but “not a pancea”.

Despite the debate, it’s clear hazard reduction burning will continue to be an important part of bushfire risk management in coming decades.

Modelling future weather

Before conducting prescribed burns, firefighting agencies consider factors such as vegetation type, proximity to property, desired rate of spread and possible smoke dispersal over populated areas. But we wanted to distil our investigation down to daily weather factors.

We reduced those factors to five key components. These were maximum temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, fuel moisture and the McArthur forest fire danger index (the index used to forecast fire danger in southeast Australia).

We looked at these elements on prescribed burning days between 2004-2015. We then used climate models to simulate how the conditions would change with global warming over southeast Australia, relative to a baseline historical 20-year period for 1990-2009.

To make a valid 20-year comparison, we compared the historical period to a modelled period from 2060-2079, assuming emissions continue to rise at their current pace.

Under global warming, suitable conditions for prescribed burns will be shifted to late winter and early spring in many places. Shutterstock



Surprisingly, we found, with one regional exception, the number of days suitable for prescribed burning did not change. And in many places, the number increased.

As the fire season lengthened under a warming climate, the number of days suitable for burning just shifted from autumn to winter.

Shifting seasons

Our research indicated that by 2060 there’ll be fewer prescribed burning days during March, April and May. These are the months when most burning happens now.

But there will be significantly more opportunities for burning days from June to October. This is because the conditions that make for a good day for prescribed burning – such as mild and still days – start to shift to winter. Today, weather in these months is unsuitable for conducting burns.

Interestingly, these results aren’t uniform across southeast Australia. For example, much of the Australian east coast and South Australia would see seasonal shifts in burning windows, with around 50% fewer burning days in March to May.

Much of Victoria and in particular the southern regions saw an increase in burning windows during April to May and, in some parts of the state, through September and October as well.

Only the east Queensland coast would see a total reduction in prescribed burn days from April to October.

The smoke trap

This may be good news for firefighters and those agencies who depend on prescribed burning as a key tool in bushfire prevention. But, as so often is the case with climate change, it’s not that simple.

A byproduct of prescribed burning is smoke, and it’s a very significant health issue.

Hazard reduction burns can release smoke into nearby communities, even major cities. REUTERS/David Gray

Last year, research showed global warming will strengthen an atmospheric layer that traps pollution close to the land surface, known as the “inversion layer”. This will happen in the years 2060-79, relative to 1990-2009 – especially during winter.

Unfortunately, the conditions that create inversion layers – including cool, still air – correspond with conditions suitable for prescribed burning.

For asthmatics and those sensitive to air pollution, smokier burn days could make winter months more difficult and add further stress to the health system.

It also creates an additional challenge for firefighting agencies, which must already consider whether smoke will linger close to the surface and potentially drift into populated regions during prescribed burns.

This is just one factor our firefighting agencies will need to face in the future as bushfire risk management becomes more complex and challenging under climate change.

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More Coal Power Generation Closed Than Opened Around The World This Year, Research Finds

The Guardian - 

China continues to increase its coal power, but in India construction has ground to a near halt

The world’s coal power fleet fell for the first time over the first six months of the year, a US research group has found. Photograph: Robert Cianflone/Getty Images

The size of the global coal power fleet fell for the first time on record over the first six months of the year, with more generation capacity shutting than starting operation.

Global Energy Monitor, a US research and advocacy group that tracks fossil fuel development, found the closure of coal generators closing, mostly across Europe and in the US, outstripped stations being commissioned, largely in Asia.

China, the world’s biggest annual greenhouse gas emitter, continues to dominate coal power development, having built nearly two-thirds of the world’s operating plants and being home to almost 90% of generators under construction. It is home to half the world’s operating coal-fired electricity capacity.

But the monitor’s global coal plant tracker database found the amount of coal power commissioned in China to the end of June was more than 40% below the same stage last year – 19.4 gigawatts compared with 11.4GWs – because of the coronavirus pandemic.

While China continues to build coal, construction has ground to a near halt in India, which shut more capacity than it opened. New Delhi oversaw the commissioning of 0.9GWs of coal generation – less than half the size of Australia’s largest coal plants – while 1.2GWs were closed and more than 27GWs of proposals were cancelled.

Christine Shearer, Global Energy Monitor’s coal program director, said the global decline was due to both the economic shock of the pandemic and record retirements in the European Union after an increase in the carbon price and tightening of pollution regulation. It follows coal-fired generation falling by an estimated 3% last year.

It was an opportunity for countries to reassess their energy plans in light of evidence that clean energy was now the cheapest option in many places, she said.

“I think this could definitely be a moment where things have slowed down enough that countries rethink their coal plans,” she said. “The big question mark is China, and what it announces it will do in its 14th five-year plan.”

China and India had a glut of coal-fired power capacity, with fleets running at barely half capacity before the pandemic struck. Despite this, Chinese provinces were granting permits for construction at the highest rate since 2016. In contrast, Vietnam, Bangladesh and Egypt had promised or proposed significantly scaling back construction plans and backed renewable energy and gas development.

Shearer said India had “radically reduced” the amount of coal it planned to build as the fuel struggled to compete with new solar and wind: “They don’t have anyone to sell the power to because there are cheaper alternatives.”

Across the globe, 18.3GWs of coal power was commissioned in the first half of the year, and 21.2GWs shut. About 8.3GWs of the closures were in the European Union and – despite US president Donald Trump’s vow to save the coal sector – 5.4GWs were in the US. Spain retired half its fleet. Britain shut a third of its coal capacity and went coal-free for two months.

Japan opened 1.8GWs while announcing plans to retire 100 inefficient coal-fired units, and Germany commissioned the 1.1GW Datteln coal plant. Datteln is expected to have a short life given the German commitment to shut all coal by 2038.

About 72GWs of planned new coal was cancelled in the first half of the year, the bulk of it in India and China, but 190GW remains under construction.

Analysis of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change scenarios suggests coal power generation will need to fall 50% below current levels by 2030 to put the world on a path to keeping global heating within 2C of pre-industrial levels. About 75% will need to shut over the decade to stay below 1.5C.

Last year the UN secretary-general, Antonio Guterres, called for a moratorium on new coal plants by 2020 to help meet the goals of the Paris climate agreement.

Tim Buckley, from the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis, said Covid-19 was having a significant impact not just on plant construction, but on forecast future energy demand. It would make building coal power in countries such as India even harder to justify, and was likely to hasten a shift from the fossil fuel.

Buckley said Australia’s $20bn thermal coal export industry, and politicians such as the Coalition’s Matthew Canavan and Labor’s Joel Fitzgibbon, who have argued it could thrive, should be preparing for an inevitable decline from a peak in global coal generation in 2018.

“No one is saying it is going to happen in the next five years, but the trajectory is clear,” he said. “How can you compete with [solar and wind] that has zero marginal cost of supply? They are going to lose. I have zero doubt about it.”

The pandemic followed thermal coal prices falling more than a third last year – the biggest drop in more than a decade – as China tightened its use of imported coal and increased its reliance on local mining.

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