01/09/2020

Carbon Footprints Are Hard To Understand — Here’s What You Need To Know

The Conversation

Well-meaning individuals often make poor choices when it comes to reducing their carbon footprint. (Shutterstock)

Author
Seth Wynes is a PhD Candidate, Geography, University of British Columbia
Imagine drinking endless orange juice from concentrate because you’re convinced this is the best way to lose weight. In moderation, orange juice is fine, but it wouldn’t be a doctor’s first recommendation for a patient wanting to shed pounds.

Much as we don’t want people to believe that the solution to the obesity pandemic is more orange juice, we also don’t want them to believe that the best way to fight climate change is to recycle more.

While recycling and turning off the lights are good steps towards a more sustainable society, they are not nearly as important for the climate on an individual basis as reducing meat consumption, air travel and driving. Well-meaning individuals often make poor choices when it comes to reducing their carbon footprint.

Air travel vs. recycling

My colleagues and I surveyed students at the University of British Columbia and a sample of North Americans recruited from the online platform Mturk, to determine if they could correctly identify actions that would curb their individual greenhouse gas emissions.

Our participants were more educated and more liberal than the general population but since we want to understand the perceptions of people who are at least a little motivated to engage in pro-climate actions, this is actually the right group of people to survey.

In the study, we first asked participants to describe the single most effective action they could take to reduce the emissions that cause climate change. Many referred to driving less, which is indeed a high-impact action, and recycling, which is not.

Perceptions of most effective climate action
Number of participants perceiving an action to be the most effective

they can take in fighting climate change
Source: Wynes, Zhao and Donner, 2020, Climatic Change Get the data 

Few mentioned air travel, which can make up a huge portion of an individual’s carbon footprint. For example, a return flight from Los Angeles to Hong Kong, can generate over 4,000 kilograms of carbon dioxide equivalents. Political actions (like voting) that are needed to make large structural change also received little attention.

Common misconceptions

Next, we provided participants with 15 actions and asked them to categorize the actions as low-, medium- or high-impact (with low being less than one per cent of a person’s carbon footprint, and high being greater than five per cent).

Actions involving personal vehicles were correctly perceived as quite important for reducing greenhouse gas emissions. But only 32 per cent of the sample correctly identified switching from plastic to canvas bags (the equivalent of orange juice for dieting) as a low-impact action. Reducing air travel and meat consumption were incorrectly ranked in the bottom half of the suggested actions.



In line with past research on the “availability heuristic,” (a mental shortcut where people give extra importance to examples that spring to mind easily) people might have been focusing on choices where the harms are highly visible or on actions that are symbolic of environmentalism but not related to climate. For example, littering creates no emissions, but we found it was perceived similarly to a high-pollution flight across the Pacific Ocean.

Focusing on what matters

Finally, we asked participants to make trade-offs between sets of different actions, like comparing how long you would need to purchase food without any packaging in order to save the same amount of emissions as one year not eating meat. Around half of participants said one to two years. The real answer is at least a decade.

We found that even people who were very concerned about climate change were unable to make accurate trade-offs. This is relevant for people who engage in moral licensing, “I recycle, so I can fly for vacation,” or people trying their best to optimize their carbon budget, “I drove out of my way to buy second-hand clothing because it has a smaller carbon footprint.”

These misunderstandings matter. People who understand that meat has a large climate impact are more willing to eat less of it. In a study of Swedes who had given up or reduced their air travel, many cited the realization that flying occupied a large part of their “carbon budget” as a motivator for their choice.

We want people to focus on meaningful actions so they don’t spend effort and money on distractions. But we also want people to adopt low-carbon lifestyles because people who do tend to support the policies that oblige everyone else to pollute less.

Ezra Klein describes the value in changing the culture of more meat and bigger SUVs at the same time as we try to change policies: “We are not going to, as a society … vote for things that make us feel like bad people.”

Lifestyle changes and more

The term “carbon footprint” has come under criticism, because the oil industry used it in the past to redirect responsibility from itself onto consumers. But following the belief that climate hawks should oppose any tactic from a major polluter does not require abandoning every effort to change lifestyles.

Some large corporations are worried that these lifestyle changes could cut deep into their bottom lines. Before the pandemic jeopardized the entire industry, airlines were taking careful steps to manage the lost business caused by a growing guilt (“flight shame”) among people for the carbon footprint of air travel.

Climate impact of lifestyle changes
Bars indicate tonnes of CO2 equivalents

Chart: Seth Wynes Source: Wynes and Nicholas 2017, Environmental Research Letters Get the data

Even if you’re convinced that lifestyle change is a distraction from political action, and there is some peer-reviewed evidence to this effect, these results suggest that people are still putting disproportionate stock in trivial lifestyle changes, and not much in voting for climate policy.

So what do we do? We can test ways to incentivize lifestyle change while increasing policy support, ideally with resources that don’t take away from political action. That could include projects on university campuses, in corporate offices and in grade schools (twelve-year-olds can’t vote, but they can learn what constitutes a sustainable meal and how to cook it).

In one study, for example, participants were given feedback on their food purchases in terms of “lightbulb minutes”: how much greenhouse gases are produced by one minute of lightbulb use. This led to a positive shift in their consumption choices. Similarly, people booking their flights could be told the fraction of their annual carbon budget that will be used up by a single trip.

These approaches are helpful because they bring attention to climate change but don’t rely on individuals mastering the difficult subject of carbon footprints on their own.

Climate activists, especially youth, tend to care about individual action. We might as well use that as an opportunity to encourage lifestyle changes that actually matter, and to increase support for tough climate policies that are already overdue.

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(AU) Methane Released In Gas Production Means Australia's Emissions May Be 10% Higher Than Reported

The Guardian

Analysis shows the government, which has committed to a ‘gas-led recovery’, has failed to properly account for methane’s effect on global heating

The Woodside gas plant in the Pilbara region of Western Australia. Analysis of Australia’s greenhouse gas accounting has shown it is underestimating the impact of gas production on emissions by as much as 10%. Photograph: Daniel Munoz/Reuters

Australia’s greenhouse gas accounting underestimates national emissions by about 10%, largely due to a failure to properly recognise the impact of methane released during gas production, an analysis has found.

In late June, the energy and emissions reduction minister, Angus Taylor, amended laws to reflect a scientific consensus that methane – a highly potent but short-lived greenhouse gas that leaks during gas processing – plays a greater role in heating the planet than previously thought.

The change is expected to increase Australia’s reported annual emissions by about 3% compared with what they otherwise would have been.

Tim Baxter, a former University of Melbourne climate law expert, now a senior researcher with the Climate Council, said the government update was belated as it was based on a report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) published six years ago.

But he said the change did not fully reflect the panel’s conclusions, including that methane from fossil fuels was more damaging than from living sources, and was yet to factor in more recent peer-reviewed evidence that methane’s heating role was even greater than estimated in 2014.

Baxter found that if the methane emitted in Australia was measured according to the latest science it would increase annual emissions by more than 50m tonnes a year, the equivalent of Sweden’s total carbon pollution. His analysis is included in a submission to the New South Wales authorities on the controversial Narrabri gas project and will form the basis for an upcoming report.

He said the Morrison government, which is backing a “gas-fired recovery” from the Covid-19 recession and is considering whether to underwrite new gas infrastructure including major pipelines, was failing to report the full impact of its emissions.

“It’s no surprise to anyone who has been paying attention that the federal government is miles behind when it comes to keeping up with the science of climate change,” Baxter said.

“It is still ignoring the extra impact of fossil fuel methane compared to other sources and still failing to consider the full impact of those emissions on natural feedbacks. The government is several steps behind key scientific developments that have occurred over the past seven years.”

Methane lasts in the atmosphere for only about 12 years but is much more potent than carbon dioxide. Scientists have found the level of atmospheric methane had increased significantly since 2007 after a relatively flat period, but they are unsure why.

Gas emits about half the carbon dioxide released from coal when burned, but Global Energy Monitor, a US research and advocacy group, found the role of fugitive methane emissions from new gas developments in global heating was likely to be as large as or larger than the expansion of coal power.

A spokesman for the Department of Industry, Science, Energy and Resources said it was simplistic for Baxter to conclude that methane impacts were underestimated in government data. He said Australia was acting in line with a 2018 international agreement that the warming power of methane and other gases set out in the IPCC’s 2014 report would be reflected in greenhouse reporting by 2023. “The analysis is not accurate,” the spokesman said.

On Tuesday, 25 leading scientists released a letter to the chief scientist, Alan Finkel, warning his advocacy for increased use of gas-fired electricity was at odds with the Paris agreement and not consistent with a plan to secure a safe climate.

“There is no role for an expansion of the gas industry,” they wrote. “The combustion of natural gas is now the fastest-growing source of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere, the most important greenhouse gas.”

Finkel responded that he shared their vision for the expansion of renewable energy but he believed it would be “faster, more economical and more reliable” if supported by gas-fired electricity generation “in the near to medium term”. The chief scientist said he had not commented on an expanded role for gas in industry – backed by the government and Scott Morrison’s handpicked National Covid Coordinating Commission – having focused solely on the electricity grid.

The Australian Energy Market Operator (Aemo) last month found additional gas-fired power was an option, but not essential, for an electricity grid increasingly based on renewable energy, and gas prices would need to stay at lower levels than expected if new gas was to compete with pumped hydro, batteries and other alternatives.

The prime minister repeated his strong support for gas in parliament on Tuesday. He said gas was an important transition fuel and expanding the supply was critical to Australia’s economic recovery from the Covid-19 recession. “That is why we want to see more of it and get more out of the ground,” he said.

The update announced by Taylor increased the estimated warming potential of methane – effectively, how much heat it traps – from 25 times greater than carbon dioxide to 28 times greater, calculated over a century. The change matters because methane emissions are converted to their “carbon dioxide equivalent” and then counted in national CO2 emissions.

The 2014 IPCC report suggested the warming power of methane from fossil fuels was 30 times greater than CO2. The warming power of “biogenic methane” – released from living organisms such as cows – was 28 times greater.

A later reassessment, published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters in 2016, found it was greater still: 34 times greater than CO2 for “fossil methane” and 32 times greater for biogenic methane.

Baxter said these figures were still not truly representative as they did not factor in the feedback effects caused when greenhouse gases are released. The IPCC report in 2014 cited research that found the feedback from methane emissions increased its warming potential by a further 20%. Baxter calculated this would lift the warming rate for biogenic methane to 39 and for fossil methane to 40.

He said the additional, unexplained methane in the atmosphere suggested the emissions from the gas industry were being systematically underreported.

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(AU) More Bushfires, Less Volcanoes: Young Australians Need To Learn About More Relevant Disasters

The Conversation | 

Shutterstock

Authors
  • is Professor Emerita of Science and Environmental Education, RMIT University
  •  is Research Fellow, Centre for Urban Research, RMIT University
Young people are increasingly frightened by the spectre of natural hazards and disasters, but they see schools as failing to equip them with the skills they need for these events.

That’s according to the recent Our World, Our Say national report, which surveyed 1,477 Australians aged 10 to 24.

While almost two-thirds (64%) of respondents said they have experienced at least three hazard events such as bushfires, heatwaves and drought in the past three years, a staggering 88% believe they’re not being taught enough to protect themselves and their communities.

In fact, they say they’re learning more about earthquakes in class than more relevant hazards, such as bushfires, floods, drought and tropical cyclones. And they are not wrong.

Young people want to learn about natural hazards and disasters that are relevant to them. After all, it’s their future, and changes in their education can help them thrive in a world of rapid social, environmental and technological change.

They don’t feel heard

The Our World, Our Say survey was conducted by the Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience and World Vision Australia.

Students want politicians to give them a voice on climate change. AAP Image/Erik Anderson

Along with issues in the curriculum, the survey also shows young people are deeply worried about climate change and see an urgent need to “reduce the intensity and frequency of disasters through climate action”.

On this front, most of the survey respondents feel Australia is not doing enough.Adding to their frustrations, survey respondents feel ignored by politicians. Nearly 90% said government leaders aren’t listening to their concerns, and that they don’t have a voice on climate change and disaster risk.

What do young people learn at school?

The devastating Black Summer bushfires demonstrated you need not live in the bush for bushfires to affect you. Yet the coverage of bushfires in the Australian Curriculum (and its state and territory adaptations) is sparse, especially when compared with the coverage of earthquakes and volcanoes.

The Australian Curriculum for Science for Year 6 has students investigating major geological events such as earthquakes, volcanic eruptions and tsunamis in Australia, the Asia region and throughout the world.

In Year 8 they investigate the role of science in the development of technology related to earthquake prediction. In Year 9 they expand on their learning of earthquakes, and other geomorphological hazards (volcanic eruption, earthquake, tsunami, landslide, avalanche) related to tectonic plates.

The main coverage of bushfires is in Year 5 Humanities and Social Sciences, where students study “the impact of bushfires or floods on environments and communities, and how people can respond”.

Even here the teacher can choose to study floods instead of bushfires. The frequency and intensity of both bushfires and floods are increasing with climate change, so students need to be learning about both.

Learning about bushfires is also an option in Year 8 Geography, but it’s included as an alternative to studying earthquakes and volcanoes.

Thick bushfire smoke on January 3 2020. You don’t have to live in a fire-prone area to be affected by bushfires. EPA/NASA

The only coverage of bushfires in the Science curriculum is in Year 9 where students investigate how ecosystems change as a result of events such as bushfires, drought and flooding. Once again, bushfires are an option, rather than a requirement.

Students are facing increased extreme weather events around Australia, including intense heavy rainfall, high fire danger days and high intensity storms. We must ensure current and future generations of school students have the knowledge and skills to prevent, mitigate and adapt to this future.

Climate change education is also missing

The Our World, Our Say survey respondents are also right about the curriculum not covering climate change.

Climate change-related topics in national and state curricula are found only in the senior secondary (Years 11 and 12) and secondary (Years 7 to 10) Humanities, Geography and Science learning areas, with many being optional.

There is no explicit mention of climate change in the Foundation to Year 6 curriculum, and the Australian Education Council recently removed the references to climate change in the Alice Springs (Mparntwe) Education Declaration.

But according to the Paris Agreement on climate change, Australia has a moral imperative and legal obligation to include climate change education in its curriculum. And, as the school strikes have demonstrated, students want to learn about climate change.

Students can be agents of change

Australia is a signatory to the United Nations’ Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction, which says disaster risk knowledge must be incorporated into formal and non-formal education.

The Sendai Framework also recognises children and youth as agents of change who should be given the opportunity to contribute to disaster risk reduction through school curricula.

Greta Thunberg’s speech to UN Climate Change COP24 conference.

Australian research from 2018 reinforces this. It found when disaster education positions children and youth as agents of change, they not only learn essential knowledge and skills, but also make extremely valuable contributions to risk reduction activities in their households, schools and communities.

They can create workshops or games to educate others about disaster planning and preparedness; produce short films or books showcasing local knowledge or hazard management strategies; and present recommendations for youth-centred emergency management planning to decision-makers.

They’re doing it right overseas

Australia could learn from New Zealand where a climate change curriculum has been released.

It aims to increase awareness of climate change and understand the response to and impacts of climate change globally, nationally and locally. It also explores opportunities to contribute to reducing and adapting to climate change impacts on everyday life.

We can also learn from Europe, where the EU Horizon 2020 Project developed a framework for child-centred disaster risk management. It started from the premise that, under Article 12 of the UN Convention on the Rights of the Child, children and young people have the right to be heard on matters that affect them.

If the education of young people in Australia is about preparing them “to thrive in a time of rapid social and technological change, and complex environmental, social and economic challenges”, as the Australian Education Council recently proclaimed, then it’s clear schooling is failing them.

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