01/10/2020

(AU) NSW Planning Commission Approves Santos's Narrabri Gas Field Project

Sydney Morning Herald - Peter Hannam | Nick Toscano

NSW's Independent Planning Commission has given "phased approval" for Santos' proposed $3.6 billion Narrabri coal seam gas field, removing the last major hurdle for the controversial project to proceed.

In an announcement posted on its website on Wednesday morning, the commission gave the project in northern NSW its approval, provided a slew of what it described as 134 "stringent conditions" were met.

The Independent Planning Commission has given the go-ahead for the Santos coal seam gas field in northern NSW. Credit: Bloomberg

"Following its detailed deliberations, the commission concludes the project is in the public interest and that any negative impacts can be effectively mitigated with strict conditions," the IPC said in a statement accompanying its decision.

"The commission has granted a phased approval that is subject to stringent conditions, which means that the applicant must meet specific requirements before the project can progress to the next phase of development."

Shares of Santos fell after they emerged from an initial trading halt on Wednesday. In a statement to the sharemarket, the company said it welcomed the IPC's approval and accepted the conditions. It would now work with the federal government to secure final approval under national biodiversity laws.

"Santos is excited about the prospect of developing the Narrabri Gas Project, a 100 per cent domestic gas project that can provide the lowest cost source of gas for NSW customers," chief executive Kevin Gallagher said.

"As the economy recovers from COVID-19, game-changing projects like the Narrabri Gas Project are critical to creating jobs, driving investment, turbo-charging regional development and delivering more competitive energy prices."

Once all approvals are in place, Santos would commence 12-18 months of appraisal drilling, which would inform the final plans for its phased development of the Narrabri project.

Santos says the Narrabri field can supply as much as half of NSW's gas needs. Credit: Brendan Esposito

In an indication that Santos still has regulatory hurdles to clear, the IPC said its consent for the project did not extend to the proposed gas-fired power station at Leewood, the Westport workers accommodation or non-safety flaring infrastructure.

The phased approval covers four stages of the project's development, covering appraisal, construction, production and finally rehabilitation once the two decade-plus project involving 850 gas wells ends.

Addressing some of the concerns – the project drew some 23,000 submissions, most of them opposed to the gas field – the commissioners laid out a range of conditions that indicate Santos still has a lot of work to do before the first joules of gas get piped to customers.

Among the key conditions are those relating to groundwater, greenhouse gas emissions and the need to dispose of as much as 840,000 tonnes of crystallised salt during the project's life.

Santos's planned 850-well gas field near Narrabri
Source: Independent Planning Commission

On groundwater, the IPC said that, while the proponent's impact modelling was "fit for purpose for this approval", it still needed more information before the project could proceed to construction "to reduce the level of uncertainty".

"The imposed conditions do not permit [Santos] to establish the production field (Phase 2) if the revised groundwater model predicts an exceedance of the water management performance measures identified in the consent," the IPC said.

On the contentious issue of whether tapping methane from the coal seams would have less of a climate change impact than coal, the IPC said such an emissions advantage "may be jeopardised by an underestimation of fugitive emissions" escaping to the atmosphere.

Santos's CSG storage ponds in the Pilliga State Forest. Approval will open the way for 850 wells in the gasfield. Credit: Dean Sewell

To counter that, the IPC will require Santos to fully offset any exceedances of its emissions predictions during the extraction and transport, or so-called Scope 1 and 2 greenhouse gas emissions.

Santos said the Scope 1 emissions would be the equivalent of 15.5 million tonnes of carbon dioxide, with 18 million tonnes for Scope 2 and 94.3 million tonnes from so-called Scope 3 or downstream combustion.

"The applicant will also be required to consult with an expert advisory group in measuring, minimising and reporting these emissions," it said.

Santos, too, will have more work to do to proceed even to the first phase of the project when it comes to disposing of the mountains of salt expected to be brought to the surface along with water as Santos tries to extract the gas.

While the commission was "satisfied" the waste salt could be disposed of appropriately, with landfills considered a last resort, it added extra conditions.

The NSW Environment Protection Authority, as lead regulator, will have to confirm Santos is meeting its pledge to minimise on-site storage of the salt, and will "require arrangements for beneficial reuse or landfill disposal at an appropriately EPA-licensed facility to be in place prior to Phase 1" of the project.

Georgina Woods, a co-ordinator of the Lock the Gate Alliance, said the approval was "disappointing" but the conditions mean Santos "is a long way from the starting gates".

The requirement for the company to redo the groundwater model so that it meets a Class-3 confidence level before project construction can proceed will be particularly challenging, she said.

"Santos is really going to struggle to proceed with this gasfield," Ms Woods said.

Ms Woods noted the IPC had highlighted that some 71 per cent of the local submissions were opposed to the project, dousing commentary that the region supported the gasfield.

The panel of three commissioners – chaired by Stephen O'Connor with John Hann and Professor Snow Barlow – said that "on balance" the project was likely to provide "a net economic benefit for the local community, region and state".

Opponents are not likely to give up on their battle to prevent the Narrabri gas field from proceeding even with the IPC's verdict. Credit: Nic Walker

It also had the potential "to improve gas security for Australia’s east coast domestic market".

Santos chief Mr Gallagher told the IPC in July his firm had spent $1.5 billion on a gasfield with the potential to meet half of NSW's gas needs. The state currently imports 95 per cent of the fuel, much of it from Santos's operations in the Cooper Basin of South Australia.

During construction, Santos has said the venture would employ as many as 1300 people, with up to 200 of the jobs ongoing. Royalties will tip $1.2 billion into state coffers.

Whether the added conditions will make the project commercially unviable remains to be seen. Likewise, it is not clear whether added supply will make much if any difference to gas prices.

Santos has pointed to a 2020 report by the Australian Energy Market Operator where the production cost in Narrabri was put at $6.40 per gigajoule - excluding transportation costs.

Gas curve
2P is "proven plus probable" reserves, while 2C is a best estimate of contingent reserves.
Source: AEMO/Santos

The Australia Institute has pointed out modelling for that figure was from Santos itself. Previous AEMO estimates put the cost at $7.28-$9.36 per gigajoule.

By contrast, the Australian Competition & Consumer Commission is predicting gas prices to average $5.63 per gigajoule in 2021.

Pressure transmitters display readings on a Santos pilot well operating in the Pilliga forest in Narrabri. Credit: Bloomberg

The push to lift gas supply in Australia's south-eastern states has been taking on increasing urgency in recent years as gas-reliant manufacturers struggle in the face of a three-fold rise in contract prices.

Union officials in the manufacturing sector, which uses gas for energy or as a feedstock, said the Narrabri green light had the potential to greatly alleviate supply-and-demand pressure and drive down prices.

"More gas should mean more affordable gas; more affordably gas means more competitive manufacturing and cheaper electricity," Australian Workers Union secretary Daniel Walton said.

"New South Wales should be a thriving global heavy manufacturing hub, and that's exactly what we can become if we better harness our gas wealth. This approval is an excellent step."

Mr Walton called on the NSW government to ensure that Santos remained committed to ensuring that Narrabri gas would be kept for local consumption and not be sold on the export market.

Oil and gas industry representatives say the Narrabri project would unlock gas reserves for NSW homes, small businesses, major industries and electricity generators.

"The clearest way to put downward pressure on gas prices for customers, including manufacturers, is to increase supply and competition," Australian Petroleum Production and Exploration Association chief Andrew McConville said on Wednesday. "The Narrabri Project does just that. This is an important outcome for energy security and reliability for the state of NSW."

Graeme Bethune, chief excutive of advisory firm EnergyQuest, said Narrabri "certainly should be extremely competitive on the east coast".

Mr Bethune described the project as "critical ... if it doesn't go ahead the [gas] price will go back up".

Remaining hurdles include securing investment and approvals for a gas pipeline to take the Narrabri gas to market, and also possible legal challenges.

Tony Pickard, a local farmer in the region near the proposed Santos coal seam gasfield near Narrabri inspects vegetation killed from saline water produced from pilot wells. Credit: Jacky Ghossein

David Morris, chief executive of the Environmental Defenders Office, said giving approval of the gasfield placed "the groundwater, ecosystems and local communities around the Pilliga at risk".

"It adds another source of powerful greenhouse gas emissions to our atmosphere at a time when what is urgently needed is rapid and deep reductions in emissions," he said, adding the organisation would be meeting clients in coming days to discuss legal options to block the project.

The venture involves contruction of as many as 425 well pads and the clearing of about 1000 hectares within the 95,000 hectare project area.

Eleanor Lawless, a campaign manager at the Wilderness Society, said the approval was "devastating for Australia’s natural and cultural heritage".

The long-running campaign, including from the Morrison government, to pressure the IPC to approve the gasfield "undermined our democracy and corrupted proper process", Ms Lawless said.

Market analysts described Wednesday's decision as positive news for Santos following years of public opposition and long delays that forced the company to write down the value of the asset to zero in its accounts.

"We view this final regulatory decision as a positive outcome for Santos, particularly after the company has struggled with this asset for many years," said Gordon Ramsay, a Sydney-based energy analyst with the Royal Bank of Canada.

Several companies have lined up to buy gas from Narrabri, including brick manufacturer Brickworks, gas wholesaler Weston Energy and fertiliser maker Perdaman.

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(USA) Manhattan’s Famous Digital Clock Is Now Counting Down To Climate Disaster

Fast Company - Adele Peters

The Metronome in Union Square now displays the time left before we burn all the carbon that will push the planet over the key 1.5 degrees Celsius of warming. 

Photo: Zack Winestine/courtesy The Climate Clock

Seven years, 105 days, and 22 hours. That’s one estimate of the time that the world has left, as of 4:00 p.m. today, before we run through our total carbon budget at current rates of emissions.

The Climate Clock is a new digital clock counting down the seconds that are left in the carbon budget—the amount of greenhouse gases that can be emitted while still having a 67% chance of keeping the world under 1.5 degrees Celsius of warming.

It’s now plastered on the side of a building in Union Square in New York City on the Metronome, a public artwork that previously displayed the time of day.


“We felt a monumental challenge like this needed something monumental in scale—a monument,” says Gan Golan, a designer and artist who collaborated on the project with climate artist and activist Andrew Boyd.

“And we also wanted it to be in public, something that you couldn’t push out of sight, out of mind. We wanted something that would bring public attention to the climate on a daily basis, so it’s something that we can’t ignore.”

Keeping global warming under 1.5 degrees can help avoid some of the worst impacts of climate change. The clock shows just how little time is left to make that possible.

“We have this incredible stark deadline that we have to reckon with,” Golan says.

“But the good news is that the number isn’t zero. It’s clarifying this time window that we have to take bold action. And so we think of this not just as a deadline, but as a lifeline, as really outlining the opportunity that we have to make the kinds of bold, transformative change that is necessary.”

Climate Clock 2020

In an accompanying app, the artists include more detail about solutions. Another number tracks the current percentage of renewable energy in the world. An interactive tool shows how to “flatten the climate curve” and how much difference it makes to invest more now, and to move more quickly.

A DIY maker kit explains how to make a countdown clock of your own. (The artists made one for Greta Thunberg at her request, and are hoping that more public clocks will be installed in other cities.)

As emissions drop, more time can be added to the clock.

“This is not meant to be static,” says Golan. “This is not a statue just sitting there in our public environment. This is a dynamic message, and one that we hope people respond to so it becomes a catalyst for action.

"We’re hoping that the clock serves as a tool for climate organizations and advocates and activists to be able to reference to hold governments and corporations accountable. Because we can all point to this clock and say, ‘This is how much time we have left. We all need to be doing more.'”


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(AU) We Looked At 35 Years Of Rainfall And Learnt How Droughts Start In The Murray-Darling Basin

The Conversation - Chiara Holgate | Albert Van Dijk | Jason Evans

AAP Image/Dan Peled 

Authors

  • Hydrologist & PhD Candidate, Australian National University

  • Professor, Water and Landscape Dynamics, Fenner School of Environment & Society, Australian National University

  • Professor, UNSW     
The extreme, recent drought has devastated many communities around the Murray-Darling Basin, but the processes driving drought are still not well understood.

Our new study helps to change this. We threw a weather model into reverse and ran it back for 35 years to study the natural processes leading to low rainfall during drought.

And we found the leading cause for drought in the Murray-Darling Basin was that moisture from oceans didn’t reach the basin as often as normal, and produced less rain when it did.

In fact, when moisture from the ocean did reach the basin during drought, the parched land surface actually made it harder for the moisture to fall as rain, worsening the already dry conditions.

These findings can help resolve why climate models struggle to simulate drought well, and ultimately help improve our ability to predict drought. This is crucial for our communities, farmers and bushfire emergency services.

There’s still a lot to learn about rain

The most recent drought was relentless. It saw the lowest rainfall on record in the Murray-Darling Basin, reduced agricultural output, led to increased food prices, and created tinder dry conditions before the Black Summer fires.

A water restrictions sign at the entrance to Stanthorpe, Queensland, in October 2019. Then, the Storm King Dam water level was at just 25%. AAP Image/Dan Peled

Drought in the Murray-Darling Basin is associated with global climate phenomena that drive changes in ocean and atmospheric circulation. These climate drivers include the El Niño and La Niña cycle, the Indian Ocean Dipole and the Southern Annular Mode.Each influences the probability of rainfall over Australia.

But drivers like El Niño can only explain around 20% of Australian rainfall — they only tell part of the story.

To fully understand the physical processes causing droughts to begin, persist and end, we need to answer the question: where does Australia’s rainfall come from? It may seem basic, but the answer isn’t so simple.

Where does Australia’s rainfall come from?

Broadly, scientists know rainfall derives from evaporation from two main sources: the ocean and the land. But we don’t know exactly where the moisture supplying Australia’s rainfall originally evaporates from, how the moisture supply changes between the seasons nor how it might have changed in the past.

To find out, we used a sophisticated model of Australia’s climate that gave data on atmospheric pressure, temperature, humidity, winds, rainfall and evaporation.

We put this data into a “back-trajectory model”. This traced the path of water from where it fell as rain, backwards in time through the atmosphere, to uncover where the water originally evaporated from. We did this for every day it rained over Australia between 1979 and 2013.

Not surprisingly, we found more than three-quarters of rain falling in Australia comes from evaporation from the surrounding oceans. So what does this mean for the Murray-Darling Basin?

Up to 18% of rain in the basin starts from the land

During the Millennium Drought and other big drought years (such as in 1982), the Murray-Darling Basin heavily relied on moisture transported from the Tasman and Coral seas for rain.

Moisture evaporated off the east coast needs easterly winds to transport it over the Great Dividing Range and into the Murray-Darling Basin, where it can form rain.

This means low rainfall during these droughts was a result of anomalies in atmospheric circulation, which prevented the easterly flow of ocean moisture. The droughts broke when moisture could once again be transported into the basin.

A lack of vegetation on the land can exacerbate drought. Shutterstock

The Murray-Darling Basin was also one of the regions in Australia where most “rainfall recycling” happens. This is when, following rainfall, high levels of evaporation from soils and plants return to the atmosphere, sometimes leading to more rain – particularly in spring and summer.

This means if we change the way we use the land or the vegetation, there is a risk we could impact rainfall.

For example, when a forest of tall trees is replaced with short grass or crops, humidity can go down and wind patterns change in the atmosphere above. Both of these affect the likelihood of rain.

In the northern part of the basin, less evaporation from the dry land surface exacerbated the low rainfall.

On the other hand, when the drought broke, more moisture evaporated from the damp land surface, adding to the already high levels of moisture coming from the ocean. This meant the region got a surplus of moisture, promoting even more rain.

This relationship was weaker in the southern part of the basin. But interestingly, rainfall there relied on moisture originating from evaporation in the northern basin, particularly during drought breaks. This is a result we need to explore further.

Summer rain not so good for farmers

Rainfall and moisture sources for Australia and the Murray-Darling Basin are changing. In the past 35 years, the southeast of the country has been receiving less moisture in winter, and more in summer.

This is likely due to increased easterly wind flows of moisture from the Tasman Sea in summer, and reduced westerly flows of moisture from the Southern Ocean in winter.

Southeast Australia has been getting more rain in summer and less in winter over the past 35 years. AAP Image/Dean Lewins

This has important implications, particularly for agriculture and water resource management.

For example, more rainfall in summer can be a problem for horticultural farms, as it can make crops more susceptible to fungal diseases, decreases the quality of wine grape crops and affects harvest scheduling.

Less winter rain also means less runoff into creeks and rivers — a vital process for mitigating drought risk. And this creates uncertainty for dam operators and water resource managers.

Understanding where our rainfall comes from matters, because it can improve weather forecasts, seasonal streamflow forecasts and long-term rainfall impacts of climate change. For a drought-prone country like Australia — set to worsen under a changing climate — this is more crucial than ever.

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