02/12/2020

The Ministry For The Future: A Novel By Kim Stanley Robinson

 Yale Climate Connections

Readers will develop a better understanding of the puzzle humanity must confront to meet challenges of climate change.

Kim Stanley Robinson inset photo: Gage Skidmore

Author
Michael Svoboda Ph.D. is an Asst. Professor of Writing in the University Writing Program at George Washington University. In his writing classes he alternates between the related themes of communicating climate change and political psychology.
In The Ministry for the Future, his twentieth novel, science fiction author Kim Stanley Robinson creates something truly remarkable: a credible, very-near future in which humans effectively solve the problem of climate change.

Climate lukewarmers may be tempted to interpret this upbeat summary as support for their technological optimism. That would be a mistake. Though it ends well, the story Robinson tells is harrowing.

That story starts in January 2025 in Bogota, Colombia, at the 29th Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Frustrated by their failure to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement, representatives of the 189 ratifying countries form a new sub-agency “to advocate for the world’s future generations of citizens” and “to defend all living creatures present and future who cannot speak for themselves.” Although it is given a large budget for a UN agency, The Ministry for the Future, as it comes to be known, can achieve these lofty objectives only by leveraging its influence.

Just six months later a heat wave strikes Uttar Pradesh, the state along India’s border with Nepal. Not an uncommon occurrence. This time, however, instead of tempering after a few weeks, the wave intensifies. Night brings no relief. A young American aid worker, Frank May, does what he can to help, inviting his neighbors into his air-conditioned offices to cool themselves. Then the power goes out. Then the agency’s generator and window units are stolen by a gang of armed young men who curse Frank for the West’s pillaging of their country and of the planet’s climate.

The only way to cool off now is a plunge into the lake at the edge of town. By immersing themselves in its waters, they hope, they can escape the pulsing heat of the air. Instead the water feels like a hot bath. But having stepped into it, they now feel too weak and too muddled to step out.

The heat wave kills millions – in a fortnight. (If that seems incredible, consider that the temperature and humidity levels Robinson imagines are only modestly worse than the levels India actually experienced in 2019.) The 1.3 billion Indians who survive to witness this climatic atrocity are shaken – and outraged.

Robinson has long made a point of expanding the political geography of science fiction and cli-fi. The Arab world played a key role in his Mars trilogy. Nepal and Bangladesh provided political counterpoints in his Science in the Capital trilogy. And China shared the top billing with the United States in Robinson’s 2018 novel Red Moon. In Ministry, India has its turn.

The heatwave sparks a political upheaval, forcing old parties out of power and western corporations out of the country. India decides to conduct a geoengineering exercise to reduce the amount of sunlight heating the subcontinent, an operation its military carries out proudly and publicly. In secret, however, another group of Indians seeks to avenge the deaths of their innocent compatriots and to change the calculus of global capitalism. The eager recruits of the Children of Kali, a group named after Hinduism’s goddess of death and destruction, become the world’s newest, and most determined, eco-terrorists.

In Robinson’s  new ‘Ministry’ novel, different chains of choices point humanity in new directions … and ultimately to health and happiness.

In Zurich, Mary Murphy, the Irish ex-diplomat who runs the Ministry, looks for ways to shape and direct the instabilities created by India’s public and covert actions. Now, on page 27 of this 563-page book, the real plot begins, a plot that entwines the lives of the Irish director of the Ministry and the traumatized American aid worker who survived the Indian heat wave.

No one event or action changes the world in this novel, not even the deaths of millions; rather it is the different sequences of choices that nudge humans, individually and collectively, in new directions. The first choices force the next choices. The Ministry succeeds when it finds subtle ways to tip the scales toward the more sustainable options.

Robinson’s account of these decades of change resembles the selective public memory of the civil rights era, in which the non-violent protests of Martin Luther King, Jr., and the kindred groups around him take center stage while black power organizations and activists, like Malcolm X, are usually consigned to the margins.

In The Ministry for the Future, acts of eco-terrorism are clearly major drivers of the changes that first slow and then halt the centuries-long rise in greenhouse gas emissions, but Robinson keeps these actors offstage. The results of their actions – bombed power plants, downed jetliners, infected CAFOs – are reported third hand, in brief summaries of newscasts. Although each of these daring actions could be the plot of a thriller, Robinson does not spin out their stories, likely because he does not want to valorize violence even when it’s clearly necessary to his plot.

For reasons that are less clear, the protagonists, too, are often kept at a distance, presented in abbreviated form in minutes from meetings or in surveillance reports.

And then there are the digressions. Many of the book’s 106 chapters are devoted to such technical topics as the history of central banking, modern monetary theory, the Gini index, blockchain technology, Mondragon, carbon taxes, clean energy technologies, Jevon’s Paradox, different forms of geoengineering, population biology, and wildlife corridors.

With these many different pieces, Robinson assembles a Rube Goldbergian machine for social change that ultimately delivers the goods: a more equitable social economy and a more stable climate, one in which CO2 levels are actually falling from the peak level (478 ppm) reached in the 2040s. The Ministry finally achieves its goals when complex, interconnected social and economic processes are repurposed to direct power and money away from the production of fossil fuels, away the conspicuous consumption – and waste – of other goods, and toward health, human interconnection, and happiness.

The Ministry for the Future, then, is both an optimistic and a difficult work. Morally difficult for the role it envisions for violence, and sometimes a slow read for the many complex topics that must be explained along the way. But precisely because of the extra effort required, readers will finish Ministry with a clearer view of the big picture and a much better understanding of the many different pieces humanity must puzzle together to meet the challenge of climate change.

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European States Ordered To Respond To Youth Activists' Climate Lawsuit

The Guardian

European court of human rights case could result in countries being bound to take greater action

A firefighter tries to extinguish flames in Leiria, Portugal, during the 2017 wildfires. Four of the youth applicants are from Leiria, one of the worst-hit areas. Photograph: Anadolu Agency/Getty Images

The European court of human rights has ordered 33 European governments to respond to a landmark climate lawsuit lodged by six youth campaigners, the Guardian has learned.

The plaintiffs’ British barrister says it could be the most important case ever tried by the Strasbourg-based judges.

In a sign of the urgency of the climate crisis, the court will announce on Monday that it has green-lighted the crowdfunded case, which was filed two months ago. It has already confirmed it will be treated as a priority, which means the process will be fast-tracked.

The states – the EU27 plus Norway, Russia, Switzerland, the UK, Turkey and Ukraine – are obliged to respond by 23 February to the complaints of the plaintiffs, who say governments are moving too slowly to reduce the greenhouse gas emissions that are destabilising the climate.

If the defendant countries fail to convince the Strasbourg-based judges, lawyers say they will be legally bound to take more ambitious steps and to address the contribution they – and multinational companies headquartered in their jurisdictions – make to overseas emissions through trade, deforestation and extractive industries.

“It is no exaggeration to say that this could be the most important case ever tried by the European court of human rights,” said Marc Willers QC, who is representing the young plaintiffs.

He said the onus was on the 33 governments. “We know they are not yet doing enough and the court’s decision to give the case priority status will add to the ever-growing pressure on European governments to act on the science and take the necessary steps to tackle climate change.”

The plaintiffs – four children and two young adults from Portugal – argue tougher climate action is needed to safeguard their future physical and mental wellbeing, to prevent discrimination against the young and protect their rights to exercise outdoors and live without anxiety.

The case was filed in September after Portugal recorded its hottest July in 90 years. It was initiated three years ago after devastating forest fires in Portugal that killed more than 120 people in 2017. Four of the plaintiffs are from Leiria, one of the worst-hit areas. The two other applicants live in Lisbon, which sweltered through record-breaking 44C (111F) heat in 2018.

Twelve-year-old André Oliveira, one of the youth applicants, said in a statement: “It gives me lots of hope to know that the judges in the European court of human rights recognise the urgency of our case. But what I’d like the most would be for European governments to immediately do what the scientists say is necessary to protect our future. Until they do this, we will keep on fighting with more determination than ever.”

The young applicants are being represented by British barristers, including Willers, who is an expert in environmental and climate change law, and supported by the London- and Dublin-based NGO Global Legal Action Network (Glan).

“These brave young people have cleared a major hurdle in their pursuit of a judgment which compels European governments to accelerate their climate mitigation efforts,” said Gerry Liston, Glan’s legal officer. “This comes just weeks ahead of the EU decision on its 2030 emissions target. Nothing less than a 65% reduction by 2030 will be enough for the EU member states to comply with their obligations to the youth applicants and indeed countless others.”

More than 1,300 climate-related lawsuits have been filed worldwide since 1990. The most successful so far was in the Netherlands, where the Urgenda Foundation forced the government into scaling back coal-fired power plants and taking other compliance measures worth about €3bn (£2.7bn).

The impact the Strasbourg judges could have is potentially greater as they sit on a standard-setting court and this case crosses multiple international boundaries.

The court has also taken the unusual step of expanding its consideration of the case by asking the 33 countries to explain whether their failure to tackle global heating violates article 3 of the European convention on human rights, which protects the right not to be subjected to ‘inhumane and degrading treatment’.

The Glan director, Gearóid Ó Cuinn, said he was encouraged by the judges’ sense of urgency. “As only a tiny minority of cases filed with the European court of human rights are fast-tracked and communicated, this development is highly significant. This is an appropriate response from the court given the scale and imminence of the threat these young people face from the climate emergency.”

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(AU) Bureau Of Meteorology Says The NT Experienced Its Hottest November In 100 Years

 ABC NewsDijana Damjanovic

The Northern Territory experienced its hottest November in more than 100 years. (ABC News: Michael Franchi)


Key points

  • Two high-pressure systems led to the past month's high temperatures
  • Rainfall was also below average due to a lack of cloud cover
  • The heat has particularly affected the Territory's vulnerable populations
The Northern Territory has sweltered through record-breaking November heat, recording daytime temperatures roughly 3.1 degrees Celsius above average.

It's the highest Northern Territory November average since records began in 1910.

In November 2019, the NT's monthly temperature was 2C above average — the fifth hottest and the third-driest on record.

This November, the hot air was dragged into the Territory by two high-pressure systems, which stayed consistent for most of the month.

"Basically the cause of the warm conditions right around the Territory has been twofold, one in the north which has been a ridge on the Queensland coast which has extended into the Top End and suppressed the showers and storm activity," said BOM senior forecaster Sally Cutter.

"Down through Central Australia, there's been troughs continually forming over WA and that's turned the winds northerly, it's just dragged that really hot air down through Central Australia."

Forecaster Sally Cutter say two high-pressure systems led to the past month's high temperatures. (ABC News: Erik Havnen)


Apart from small clusters in east and coastal parts of Arnhem Land, the entire Northern Territory also experienced above-average overnight temperatures.

Rainfall was also below average throughout the NT, except for a few regions south of the Top End and around Alice Springs, with November 2020 the eighth-lowest since records began.

"It sort of goes hand in hand, if you get those really hot temperatures, you need lack of cloud cover and therefore you get reduced amounts of rainfall," Ms Cutter said.

The lowest maximum temperature recorded at Darwin Airport was 31.9C on November 24 and its hottest was 37C on the 17th.

While in Alice Springs, the warmest daytime temperature came in at 43.5C on the 14th of November while its coolest was on the 16th when it was 28.9C.

Adam Thacker struggles to retain staff due to the hot working conditions associated with his landscaping business. (ABC News: Erik Havnen)


Total Yard and Garden Care director Adam Thacker says the hotter weather makes it hard to retain staff.

"I think the biggest thing is going to be trying to hire locals, because people from down south don't really last in the heat up here, we go through at least 20 workers a year," Mr Thacker said.

"I'm just sitting here trying to get workers, they might last a couple of days or they might do two weeks and then they burn out. They just can't handle the heat."

Vulnerable populations, such as the NT's homeless, have also been affected.

"We've had a number in the past week, our patrols had to deal with an incident on Friday afternoon that took them more than an hour, because someone had reacted because of the heat stress," said Robert Cooper, chief executive of Larrakia Nation.

"When the power was off, they had an old bloke collapsed in front of his accommodation," he said.

Robert Cooper CEO of Larrakia Nation, says their organisation is calling for donated water to hand out to people sleeping rough. (ABC News: Erik Havnen)

The Northern Territory has Australia's highest rate of homelessness, with figures from the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare showing one in 26 people in the NT received help from support services in 2018-19 — well above the national rate of one in 86 people.

Larrakia Nation has daily contact with people sleeping rough on the street.

"We're trying to prepare them not only for the heat but also the potential of COVID-19, and having them understand that coming into the air conditioning [in shopping centres] is not always appropriate," Mr Robert Cooper said.

Mr Cooper said Larrakia Nation was in desperate need for donated water, so his staff could distribute it among rough sleepers.

"We are currently trying to find a way to get more water out to our clients, particularly out where they're camping," he said.

"So if there's anyone out there from the supermarkets who want to help, please get in touch."

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