Climate Crisis: World Is At Its Hottest For At Least 12,000 Years – Study

The Guardian - Damian Carrington

Scientists say temperatures globally at highest level since start of human civilisation
   

The world’s continuously warming climate is revealed also in contemporary ice melt at glaciers, such as with this one in the Kenai mountains, Alaska (seen September 2019). Photograph: Joe Raedle/Getty Images

The planet is hotter now than it has been for at least 12,000 years, a period spanning the entire development of human civilisation, according to research.

Analysis of ocean surface temperatures shows human-driven climate change has put the world in “uncharted territory”, the scientists say. The planet may even be at its warmest for 125,000 years, although data on that far back is less certain.

The research, published in the journal Nature, reached these conclusions by solving a longstanding puzzle known as the “Holocene temperature conundrum”. Climate models have indicated continuous warming since the last ice age ended 12,000 years ago and the Holocene period began.

But temperature estimates derived from fossil shells showed a peak of warming 6,000 years ago and then a cooling, until the industrial revolution sent carbon emissions soaring.

This conflict undermined confidence in the climate models and the shell data. But it was found that the shell data reflected only hotter summers and missed colder winters, and so was giving misleadingly high annual temperatures.

“We demonstrate that global average annual temperature has been rising over the last 12,000 years, contrary to previous results,” said Samantha Bova, at Rutgers University–New Brunswick in the US, who led the research.

“This means that the modern, human-caused global warming period is accelerating a long-term increase in global temperatures, making today completely uncharted territory. It changes the baseline and emphasises just how critical it is to take our situation seriously.”

The world may be hotter now than any time since about 125,000 years ago, which was the last warm period between ice ages. However, scientists cannot be certain as there is less data relating to that time.

One study, published in 2017, suggested that global temperatures were last as high as today 115,000 years ago, but that was based on less data.

The new research examined temperature measurements derived from the chemistry of tiny shells and algal compounds found in cores of ocean sediments, and solved the conundrum by taking account of two factors.

First, the shells and organic materials had been assumed to represent the entire year but in fact were most likely to have formed during summer when the organisms bloomed. Second, there are well-known predictable natural cycles in the heating of the Earth caused by eccentricities in the orbit of the planet.

Changes in these cycles can lead to summers becoming hotter and winters colder while average annual temperatures change only a little.

Combining these insights showed that the apparent cooling after the warm peak 6,000 years ago, revealed by shell data, was misleading. The shells were in fact only recording a decline in summer temperatures, but the average annual temperatures were still rising slowly, as indicated by the models.

“Now they actually match incredibly well and it gives us a lot of confidence that our climate models are doing a really good job,” said Bova.

1.0C Difference in temperature compared with the last 1,000 years

Guardian graphic. Source: Bova et al, Nature, 2021

The study looked only at ocean temperature records, but Bova said: “The temperature of the sea surface has a really controlling impact on the climate of the Earth. If we know that, it is the best indicator of what global climate is doing.”

She led a research voyage off the coast of Chile in 2020 to take more ocean sediment cores and add to the available data.

Jennifer Hertzberg, of Texas A&M University in the US, said: “By solving a conundrum that has puzzled climate scientists for years, Bova and colleagues’ study is a major step forward. Understanding past climate change is crucial for putting modern global warming in context.”

Lijing Cheng, at the International Centre for Climate and Environment Sciences in Beijing, China, recently led a study that showed that in 2020 the world’s oceans reached their hottest level yet in instrumental records dating back to the 1940s. More than 90% of global heating is taken up by the seas.

Cheng said the new research was useful and intriguing. It provided a method to correct temperature data from shells and could also enable scientists to work out how much heat the ocean absorbed before the industrial revolution, a factor little understood.

The level of carbon dioxide today is at its highest for about 4m years and is rising at the fastest rate for 66m years. Further rises in temperature and sea level are inevitable until greenhouse gas emissions are cut to net zero.

Links

• Nature: Seasonal origin of the thermal maxima at the Holocene and the last interglacial
• Climate crisis: record ocean heat in 2020 supercharged extreme weather
• Climate crisis making autumn leaves fall earlier, study finds
• World's beaches disappearing due to climate crisis – study
• Climate emergency: 2019 was second hottest year on record 
• Tackling degraded oceans could mitigate climate crisis - report 
• Climate change made European heatwave at least five times likelier
• Warming oceans likely to raise sea levels 30cm by end of century – study
• Past four years hottest on record, data shows

(AU) Business Council Of Australia Supports Zali Steggall’s Climate Change Bills

NEWS.com.au - Sarah McPhee

An independent MP’s proposal for drastic action on climate change has received the unexpected backing of a powerful lobby group. 

A new report from CSIRO and BOM has warned us about the worsening effects of climate change.

Public hearings into climate change legislation proposed by independent MP Zali Steggall have begun in Canberra today, backed by a business group representing chief executives from the mining, energy and manufacturing sectors.

The private members’ bills, released in February last year but introduced in parliament in November, include a long-term target of net-zero emissions by 2050.

Ms Steggall also wants to see an independent Climate Change Commission established.

With hearings on Friday and on Monday, February 1, the House of Representatives Standing Committee on the Environment and Energy has promised an independent review of the proposed legislation.

“We have recently managed inquiries into nuclear energy, bushfires, Scope 3 emissions and feral cats, and so the Committee is well placed to now deliberate on the proposed climate change bills,” chair Ted O’Brien said in a statement.

“As a Committee, we’ll do what we always do,” he said. “We won’t draw any conclusions prematurely, but rather assess the information with dispassionate independence.”

Independent Member for Warringah Zali Steggall. Picture: Mick Tsikas/AAP Source: AAP

There are more than 700 publicly available submissions to the inquiry including from the Law Council of Australia, the Australian Medical Association, the Property Council of Australia and prominent TV personality Osher Günsberg.

Another notable submission is a three-page document from the Business Council of Australia, which has a membership of “CEOs of Australia’s top companies” such as AGL, BHP, BlueScope, Fortescue Metals Group, Origin Energy and Rio Tinto.

Members hail from sectors including mining, retail, manufacturing, infrastructure, information technology, financial services and banking, energy, professional services, transport, and telecommunications.

Signed by BCA chief executive Jennifer Westacott, the submission states the bills ensure environmental sustainability “but also the need to manage the economic and social impacts”.

“The proposed legislation adopts a science-based, risk-management approach to addressing climate change … which is aligned with how businesses and their shareholders, increasingly, are responding to climate-related risks,” Ms Westacott writes.

“Having a very clear set of government policy ‘goalposts’ would enable company directors to focus their resources and efforts more efficiently with respect to climate-related transition risks.”

Ms Westacott said investors’ needs are “twofold”, being “a clearly articulated policy destination; and a policy pathway for achieving this destination”.

She said the climate policy response would benefit the community by providing opportunities for new jobs, particularly in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic-induced recession.

It raised six aspects requiring “careful interpretation” to be consistent with “an efficient, least-cost climate policy response for Australia”, including that “sectoral policies” should not prevent “emissions mitigation and adaptation efforts being optimised across sectors”.

The parliamentary inquiry public hearings are being held on Friday and Monday. Picture: NCA NewsWire/Gary Ramage Source: News Corp Australia

Ms Steggall said the sheer number of submissions to the inquiry, totalling 6500, demonstrates “how broad the support is for a sensible plan to tackle emissions reduction and management of climate change risk”.

“The inquiry’s two public hearings offer a significant opportunity for the public to hear from the private and public sectors on the impact of climate change and how we tackle it and make a difference,” she said.

“As we have seen in the UK, climate change policy can be bipartisan.

“The world is heading to net zero by 2050 led by US President Joe Biden. It’s time Prime Minister Scott Morrison sets Australia on the right path.

“Dragging this out and delaying significant emissions reduction will only cost more and increase risks to our communities.”

Prime Minister Scott Morrison. Picture: NCA NewsWire/Martin Ollman Source: Supplied

In an interview with The Weekend Australian last week, Mr Morrison said he would not be updating the country’s medium-term emissions reduction targets ahead of the UN Climate Change Conference in Glasgow in December.

“It is about whether you can produce hydrogen at the right cost, it is about whether (carbon capture and storage) can be done at the right cost, it is whether we can produce low emissions steel and aluminium at the right cost,” Mr Morrison said.

“That is how you actually get to net zero. You don’t get there by just having some commitment.

“That is where the discussion has to go and I think the Biden administration provides an opportunity to really pursue that with some enthusiasm.”

Late last year, Energy Minister Angus Taylor told ABC Radio a “net zero across-the-board 2050 target” would mean a 2030 target around 43 per cent.

“That will destroy jobs, that will require taxes, that will impose costs on Australian energy consumers and raise the price of electricity in this country,” he said.

Australia is party to the Paris Agreement, aiming to keep global warming to well below 2C.

Ms Steggall won the blue-ribbon Sydney seat of Warringah in 2019, held by former prime minister Tony Abbott since 1994.

Her proposed legislation is backed by the Greens and several crossbenchers including Rebekha Sharkie, Andrew Wilkie and Helen Haines.

Links

• Australian faces major climate change reality check
• What 2C of warming will look like in Australia 
• Zali Steggall's climate bill gets broad backing from industry groups and investors
• Business Council of Australia backs Zali Steggall's climate change bill for 2050 net zero target
• Net zero, saving koalas and forest wars: the crucial environment battles looming in Australia
• Spinning emissions: Australia's climate projections are not what they seem
• Australia urged to overhaul environment laws and reverse 'decline of our iconic places'
• ‘Breathtaking’: what Joe Biden’s sweeping climate plan means for Scott Morrison
• Coalition quietly adds fossil fuel industry leaders to emissions reduction panel
• Morrison’s tech roadmap flags more investment in carbon capture and storage
• UN climate summit president thanks Australian states – but not Morrison government – for backing net zero

(AU) ‘Breathtaking’: What Joe Biden’s Sweeping Climate Plan Means For Scott Morrison

The Guardian - Adam Morton

As the US president vows to push the rest of the world to do more on climate change, the prime minister will face increasing pressure to measure up

Joe Biden has declared climate change an existential threat to the planet and pledged to put ‘environmental justice’ at the heart of all decision-making. Photograph: REX/Shutterstock

When John Kerry, the United States’ new special presidential envoy for climate, stepped up to speak to the World Economic Forum in Davos on Wednesday he had Australia on his mind.

The former secretary of state had been struck by an article in the New York Times by the author Michael Benson that described satellite images of the “flame vortexes” that spiralled into the atmosphere as the continent’s wildlife burned a year ago, sending a plume across New Zealand and into the Pacific.

It was, Kerry said, evidence of the urgency of climate change “literally all around us”.

He quoted Benson: “In the end Australia’s fires killed dozens of people, destroyed 5,900 buildings and quite likely, according to the best science, rendered some of the country’s endangered species extinct.

“With shocking iconographic precision, that unfurling banner of smoke said: ‘The war has started, we’re losing’.”

The expectation that Joe Biden would move quickly to reverse US recalcitrance on the climate crisis under Donald Trump has built since his election, but even those expecting an ambitious re-positioning have been stunned by the pace and breadth of the changes made.

The new president made a detailed and multi-part executive order on Wednesday, a week after signing papers to re-join the Paris agreement on his first day in office.

Observers who spoke with Guardian Australia about the plan emphasised the comprehensiveness of the Biden administration’s vision.

The order embeds dealing with the climate emergency across all government operations, with a particular focus on its importance in foreign policy and national security.

It underscores the scale of the international pressure the Morrison government is likely to face this year if it maintains its resistance to making the science-based commitments expected under the 2015 climate pact.

Where the Morrison government prefers not to use the term “climate change”, having banished it from the ministry and its main emissions reduction policy, Biden declared it an “existential threat to the planet” and his order says there is only “a narrow moment to pursue action at home and abroad” to avoid “the most catastrophic impacts” and to seize opportunities to create jobs.

His instructions include pausing and reviewing oil and gas drilling on federal land, doubling energy from offshore windfarms by 2030, moving federal government agencies from fossil fuel to clean cars, setting a goal of conserving at least 30% of lands and oceans by 2030, and ordering a national intelligence estimate on the economic and security implications of climate change.

The White House will introduce an office of domestic climate policy to coordinate Biden’s agenda, a national climate taskforce comprising of 21 government agency leaders and an environmental justice interagency council to address racial and economic inequities exacerbated by climate change and air and water pollution. 

It hopes to pass a $2tn clean energy package, with 40% of investments aimed at disadvantaged communities.

Bill Hare, chief executive of Berlin-based Climate Analytics and an adviser to developing countries on climate change for decades, says the scope of Biden’s actions so far has been surprising.

“It’s more than people thought they would do,” he says. “It’s comprehensive and coherent. Breathtaking really is the word.”

Martijn Wilder, a former chair of the Australian Renewable Energy Agency and founding partner of the climate advisory firm Pollination, says he believes Biden’s plan is “the most comprehensive plan by any government ever on climate change”, and people were yet to fully grasp its significance, particularly in terms of national security and foreign policy.

How Biden intends to wield his influence internationally will become clearer in the lead up to a major economies climate summit he plans to host on Earth Day, 22 April. 

He has set the summit as a deadline to announce a new emissions reduction target for 2030 to put the US on the path to net zero by 2050. He has already promised a carbon-free power supply by 2035.

In contrast, Scott Morrison has said he will not increase what is widely seen as an unambitious 2030 emissions target (a 26-28% cut below 2005 levels) this year. 

The government has pulled out of the global climate fund, and continues to resist a mid-century net zero emissions target despite it being backed by more than 120 countries collectively responsible for about three-quarters of global GDP.

There is a growing expectation Morrison may relent on that point before a year-ending UN climate summit in Glasgow. 

But scientists and parts of the international community say a net zero target for 2050 would mean little unless backed by a detailed plan to get there, including deeper emissions cuts this decade. 

A group of policymakers and scientists this week released an analysis warning Australia should be aiming for net zero emissions well before 2050 if it was to take a science-based approach.

This isn’t a fly-by-night effort. This is a serious change to government operations and ... it is going to have a profound effect globally
Howard Bamsey

Reports have suggested the government believes it will not come under pressure from the US to do more on climate after an initial phone call between Kerry and the emissions reduction minister, Angus Taylor, which is said to have included discussion about establishing a working group on developing low-emissions technology.

Analysts largely dismiss this as bravado or wishful-thinking, but it is unclear how forceful and direct any pressure would be.

John Morton, a former senior director for energy and climate change in Barack Obama’s national security council and now a Washington DC-based partner in Pollination, says Biden has left no doubt in his first 10 days that he plans to do exactly what he promised on climate.

His rhetoric before taking office included using “every tool of American foreign policy to push the rest of the world” to do more.

“Climate is a top priority for his government. I think it would be foolhardy to expect the Biden administration would not pursue it in its interactions with Australia. It will with every country, but particularly countries with significant means and significant fossil fuel and extractive industries,” Morton says.

“Australia obviously fits into both of these categories. I think Australia has to expect this will play a central role in how the US deals and hopes to interact collaboratively with it.”

Hare says it is unlikely US will accept a belated commitment to a net zero goal for 2050 as a substantial shift in Australia’s stance. “They’ll want to see an improvement in the 2030 target,” he says.

John Kerry, the United States’ new special presidential envoy for climate, said the Australian bushfires were evidence of the urgency of climate change ‘literally all around us’. Photograph: Saeed Khan/AFP via Getty Images

The international push for Australia to do more is not coming from the US alone. Morrison was embarrassed when rejected for a speaking slot at a leaders’ climate ambition summit in December due to Australia’s perceived lack of ambition, and is likely to come under similar pressure ahead of a G7 meeting in Cornwall in June.

The British prime minister, Boris Johnson, has invited the leaders of Australia, India and South Korea to attend every session of the summit in what is seen as an attempt to turn the forum into a D10 meeting of major democracies.

Diplomatic sources say Britain has made clear climate and energy will be a top priority at the summit, and it plans to push for commitments on both net zero emissions by 2050 and deeper cuts and financial commitments to help developing countries for 2030.

With every G7 member having already adopted a carbon neutrality goal, the expectation is the three guests will be pressed to put their names to an ambitious communique.

Morrison appeared to pre-emptively respond to this push in an interview with the Australian last week in which he argued the political debate over whether to act on climate change was over, and it was now just a matter of how - and, by implication, when – emissions were reduced.

He said he would tell the G7 and G20 that his priority was to take action by developing technology, not committing to new emissions goals.

It puts him directly at odds with Kerry, who stressed this week that all countries must increase ambition before meeting in Glasgow in November “or we will all fail”.

Howard Bamsey, a former Australian special envoy on climate change and executive director of the green climate fund, now an honorary professor at the Australian National University, says an underlying message from the US beyond the specifics is the extent to which its plans had been considered and mapped out before taking office.

In one sense, this isn’t surprising. Many of the people in key roles are former Obama administration officials, and Biden signalled his plans on climate change in advance in a way no other incoming president has.

Bamsey says people should be reassured that his administration is clear in what it is doing, and that Kerry has emphasised it was being realistic about what could be achieved.

It also means it is more likely to follow through.

“This isn’t a fly-by-night effort. This is a very serious change to government operations and now they have put it in a national security setting it is going to have a very profound effect globally,” Bamsey says. “It’s really hard to see the Australian government keep resisting.”

Links

• Watching Earth Burn
• Existential Threat: Biden Takes Action To Address Climate Crisis
• Net zero, saving koalas and forest wars: the crucial environment battles looming in Australia
• Coalition quietly adds fossil fuel industry leaders to emissions reduction panel

• Origin seeks fossil fuel leases in 'incredibly fragile' Queensland channel country

• Cape York station owner refused to accept land-clearing would affect threatened species
• WA coastline facing marine heatwave in early 2021, CSIRO predicts
• 'The platypuses were glowing': the secret light of Australia's marsupials
• Spinning emissions: Australia's climate projections are not what they seem

UN Global Climate Poll: ‘The People’s Voice Is Clear – They Want Action’

The Guardian - Damian Carrington

Biggest ever survey finds two-thirds of people think climate change is a global emergency

In countries where fossil fuels are a major source of emissions, people strongly supported renewable energy. Photograph: John Giles/PA

The biggest ever opinion poll on climate change has found two-thirds of people think it is a “global emergency”.

The survey shows people across the world support climate action and gives politicians a clear mandate to take the major action needed, according to the UN organisation that carried out the poll.

The UN Development Programme (UNDP) questioned 1.2 million people in 50 countries, many of them young.

While younger people showed the greatest concern, with 69% of those aged 14-18 saying there is a climate emergency, 58% of those over 60 agreed, suggesting there is not a huge generational divide.

Even when climate action required significant changes in their own country, majorities still backed the measures.

In nations where fossil fuels are a major source of emissions, people strongly supported renewable energy, including the US (65% in favour), Australia (76%) and Russia (51%).

Guardian graphic. Source: UNDP

Where the destruction of forests is a big cause of emissions, people supported conservation of trees, with 60% support in Brazil and 57% in Indonesia. 

Overall, the most popular actions to tackle the climate crisis were protecting and restoring forests, followed by renewable energy and climate-friendly farming. The promotion of plant-based diets was the least popular of the 18 policies in the survey, with only 30% support.

Gender was a factor in some countries, with at least 5% more men and boys saying there is a climate emergency than women and girls in 16 countries. However, in four nations – the US, Australia, Canada and the UK – significantly more women and girls were concerned about global heating.

The UNDP ran the “Peoples’ Climate Vote” in 50 high-, middle- and low-income countries, representing more than half the world’s people. Experts at Oxford University weighted the replies to reflect the population of each nation.

Majority of all ages say climate change is a global emergency

Guardian graphic | Source: UNDP

“The voice of the people is clear – they want action on climate change,” said Cassie Flynn, the UNDP’s strategic adviser on climate change.“If 64% of the world’s people are believing in a climate emergency then it helps governments to respond to the climate crisis as an emergency.

“The key message is that, as governments are making these high-stakes decisions, the people are with them.”

Flynn said the survey connects the climate concerns of people, particularly the young, with governments at a time when accelerated action must be agreed, in particular at a UN climate summit in November. The climate crisis continued unabated in 2020, with the joint highest global temperatures on record.

“We are at a fork in the road and the poll says ‘this is how your future generations are thinking, in specific policy choices’ – it brings a way to envision the future,” she said.

Flynn heads the UNDP’s Climate Promise programme that helps countries take more ambitious climate action.

The poll found the highest proportion of people saying there is a climate emergency was in the UK and Italy, both at 81%. Australia was at 72% and the US at 65%, the same as Russia, and India was at 59%. Even the lowest proportion, in Moldova, was 50%.

The relatively low support for the promotion of plant-based diets may be because there are few plant-based options in some countries or people may have felt that diet is more of a personal choice, said the UNDP. Support was highest in Germany (44%) and the UK (43%).

The reason why more men and boys said there was a climate emergency than women and girls in countries such as Nigeria and Vietnam may be because girls have less access to education in those places.

The poll found that the more education a person had completed, the more likely they were to think there is a climate emergency. Why more women and girls are more concerned in the four English-speaking nations is unclear.

The poll was distributed via advertisements in video games and puzzles, including Angry Birds, Subway Surfers, Sudoku and Words With Friends, and this particularly helped reach younger people.

The idea came to Flynn when she was on the subway in New York City: “I looked around and everyone was on their phones and most were playing games.”

The data was collected between October and December 2020 and, despite the coronavirus pandemic, 59% of the people saying there is a climate emergency also said the world should “do everything necessary and urgently” in response.

Prof Stephen Fisher at Oxford University said: “The Peoples’ Climate Vote has delivered a treasure trove of data on public opinion that we’ve never seen before. Recognition of the climate emergency is much more widespread than previously thought.”

Links

• US returns to global climate arena with call to act on 'emergency' 
• Paris climate deal: world not on track to meet goal amid continuous emissions
• Oil and gas companies undermining climate goals, says report
• Fossil fuel dependence poses 'direct existential threat', warns UN chief
• The seven megatrends that could beat global warming: 'There is reason for hope'
• How India’s battle with climate change could determine all of our fates
• UK climate change masterplan – the grownups have finally won
• Global trade deal threatens Paris climate goals, leaked documents show
• Dangerous global warming will happen sooner than thought – study

Doomsday Clock Hovers Dangerously Close To Midnight, As Experts Warn Of 'Crossroads' On Climate Change

CBC News - Stephanie Dubois

The clock, introduced in 1947, is symbolic of how close humanity is to destroying civilization

Robert Rosner, left, and Suzet McKinney, members of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists' science and security board, revealed the 2021 setting of the Doomsday Clock on Wednesday, saying it would remain at 100 seconds to midnight. (Thomas Gaulkin/Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists)

The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists announced Wednesday the 2021 Doomsday Clock remains unchanged from its 2020 spot at 100 seconds to midnight, but experts warn the world is at a turning point.

"The Doomsday Clock continues to hover dangerously, reminding us about how much work is needed to push the hands away from midnight," said Rachel Bronson, president and CEO of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists at Wednesday's announcement.

The clock, introduced in 1947, is a symbolic representation of how close humanity is to destroying civilization. It is maintained by a group of experts with the bulletin, a non-profit organization tracking man-made threats. 

Typically, the group moves the hands forward or back each year, depending on how vulnerable the world is. Midnight represents a catastrophe.

The clock was set to 100 seconds to midnight last year, the closest to midnight it has ever been.

(Kevin Kirk)

Pandemic a 'historic wake-up call'

Experts said at Wednesday's announcement the pandemic is an example of how governments and organizations are not ready for global emergencies.

"We recognize that humanity continues to suffer as the COVID-19 pandemic spreads around the world. The pandemic will recede eventually," said Bronson.    

"Still, the pandemic serves as a historic wake-up call." 

It is, she said, a vivid illustration that national governments and international organizations are not prepared to manage complex and dangerous challenges, including nuclear weapons and climate change, which currently pose existential threats to humanity. 

The pandemic also brought on challenges as it sparked what the World Health Organization calls an infodemic, an overabundance of information that "includes deliberate attempts to disseminate wrong information to undermine the public health response and advance alternative agendas of groups or individuals." 

"The COVID-19 pandemic and its accompanying infodemic have become intertwined with critical uncertainties regarding science, technology, and crisis communications," reads the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists' statement published on Wednesday.

The bulletin also noted in their statement that 2020 saw the effects of climate change around the world, including massive wildfires in North America and Australia and rising sea levels and melting sea ice and glaciers. 

The latest setting of the Doomsday Clock, a symbolic representation of how close humanity is to destroying civilization, remains unchanged from 2020 and is still at 100 seconds to midnight, which represents a catastrophe. (Thomas Gaulkin/Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists)

The group of experts who are part of the non-profit organization also emphasized in their statement that last year also saw accelerating nuclear programs in multiple countries which "moved the world into less stable and manageable territory last year."

Positive developments factored into decision

In making their decision, the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists also recognized that there were some positive developments.

One of those developments was the election of U.S. President Joe Biden, who recognizes climate change is a global threat and has already committed to having the U.S. rejoin the Paris agreement on climate change.

Those promising moves, among others, led the bulletin to keep the arms of the Doomsday Clock at 100 seconds to midnight as they believe there hasn't yet been enough progress to justify moving the clock away from midnight. 

"Fundamentally, I would say we are at a crossroads. We are at a very dangerous crossroads," said Susan Solomon, science and security board member with the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists and the Lee and Geraldine Martin professor of environmental studies at Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

"It's the choices that are just about to come that will determine our path."

Links

• Doomsday clock stops at 100 secs to midnight to shine light on climate emergency
• Doomsday Clock Climate Change
• What is the Doomsday Clock? | University of Chicago
• Newsweek: Doomsday Clock Close as Ever to Midnight in 2021 over COVID, Nukes, Climate Change
• Biden signals radical shift from Trump era with executive orders on climate change
• Doomsday Clock moves ahead to 100 seconds to midnight
• Deep water temperatures hit 'scary' highs in Gulf of St. Lawrence
• Biden ready to rejoin Paris Agreement, put the U.S. back on track with climate goals
• Analysis
• Trump's legacy leaves Arctic with fewer environmental protections and more risk of conflict, say experts

(AU) Australia Could Take Massive Economic Hit From Climate-Fuelled Extreme Weather, Report Warns

SBS - Jarni Blakkarly

Extreme weather events linked to climate change could cost the Australian economy $100 billion every year in the not-too-distant future, according to a new report.

RFS volunteers and NSW Fire and Rescue officers fight a bushfire south of Sydney during the Black Summer bushfires. Source: AAP

Climate Council Key Findings The latest science projects that by 2100 annual deaths from extreme heat worldwide will outstrip all COVID-19 deaths recorded in 2020. In 2019-20, we ushered in a new and dangerous era of megafires that ravaged Australia, Brazil, Siberia and the US West Coast.  We are on track to eliminate all of Australia’s and the world’s tropical coral reefs. Climate-related hazards have affected six times more people in the Asia-Pacific than in the rest of the world combined. Ignoring climate change is deadly. Australians are now paying the price for our own and the world’s failure to reduce emissions quickly enough or deeply enough. We need bold, concerted action across all levels of government, business, industry and community to reduce Australia’s emissions to net zero as soon as possible and prepare for worsening extreme weather events.

Extreme weather events linked to climate change will become an increasingly common part of Australian life in the decades to come, a new report by the Climate Council warns.

The cost of extreme weather in Australia has already almost doubled since the 1970s, and totalled $35 billion over the past decade, according to the report released on Wednesday.

The Climate Council says the impact of fires, floods, droughts, storms and sea level rise linked to climate change could skyrocket into the future, potentially costing the country's economy up to $100 billion every year by 2038.

The report's lead author, Professor Will Steffen, told SBS News that last summer’s Black Summer bushfires showed what happened when the climate reached a “tipping point”.

He said similar events would likely happen with increasing frequency.

“We can’t expect extreme events to increase in a smooth linear fashion, they could jump up at an extremely fast rate at any time, these are the risks we are taking as climate change continues,” Professor Steffen said.

He said studies had shown that Australians were five times more likely to face physical displacement due to climate disasters than their European counterparts.

“But it’s important to note our Pacific Island neighbours face 100 times the displacement risk than Europeans. That displacement risk is only likely to increase for both them and for us,” he said.

Dr Robert Glasser, the United Nations Secretary General’s former Special Representative for Disaster Risk Reduction, said Australia should be concerned about the impact of climate change on both the country and the region.

The report warns that devastating fires like those in Black Summer will become all the more common. AAP

“We are also vulnerable because we are right on the doorstep of one of the most populous regions in the world. There are over 400 million people just in maritime Southeast Asia to our north, predominantly in these densely populated low-lying countries that are extremely vulnerable to climate change, sea level rise and storm surge,” he told SBS News.

“So their problems are going to cascade and affect our security as a country in this region,”.  

Federal government urged to act

Dr Glasser said the Australian government needed to take stronger action on reducing the country's greenhouse gas emissions, and advocate for other nations to do more.

He said the country also had to drastically step up its ability to respond to major climate disasters.

“Australians are very resilient, but what we now need to do is scale it up, take it to another level. Because the sorts of hazards that strike us now and into the future will be record setting, unprecedented fires, storms and floods. We need to move from adaptation to transformation,” he said.

Professor Steffen said Australia had to half its emissions by 2030 and reach net zero emissions by 2040.

“That’s what we need to do - the science is very clear on that - and a lot of technologies are now coming into place to make those goals feasible. What’s stopping us is ideology, politics and vested interests,” he said.

Links

• Climate Council Report - Hitting Home: The Compounding Costs of Climate Inaction
• Climate Change Could Cost Australia Billions, Report Says
• Climate Council
• The Deadly Costs of Climate Inaction - Professor Will Steffen
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• Heat Map Shows Clear Trend in Global Temperature Change
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(AU) The Verdict On Australia’s Emissions Targets: Catastrophic

The Age - John Hewson

Author Dr John Hewson AM is an honorary professor at the Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University, and is a former leader of the Liberal party.

US President Joe Biden moved decisively on climate, rejoining the Paris Agreement on day one and appointing former secretary of state John Kerry as his Climate Envoy.

Kerry has already called out the climate emergency, emphasised that time is fast running out, and makes the critical point that existing Paris pledges are inadequate to meet the goal of keeping global warming below 2 degrees.

The government’s own forecasts warn of a catastrophic temperature rise of 4.4C by the end of the century. Credit: Nick Moir

Kerry will make the point in coming summits that countries collectively need to do at least three times as much as they are currently pledging.

The costs of climate events are rising alarmingly, as evidenced for Australia by a Climate Council report on Wednesday of a looming annual $100 billion bill for natural disasters. Kerry has drawn attention to the cost of some $US350 billion ($452 billion) in one year after three storms.

A 2 degrees increase in temperature is specified by science as an “upper limit”, as a “guardrail”, or “tipping point”, beyond which global warming becomes an unstoppable chain reaction. Our children could face the prospect of their planet becoming uninhabitable in their lifetimes.

To stay below that limit the world has a finite carbon budget – a fixed amount of pollution we can emit over the next two to three decades. The next decade will be determinant. Hence the global focus on increased targets for 2030.

‘Stark reminder of our fragility’: Pandemic prompts global surge in climate action

In recent interviews Prime Minister Scott Morrison has been at pains to create the impression that he supports a net-zero emissions target for 2050, but he won’t formally commit to it. 

Last weekend, he asserted (more a wish than a reality) that the political debate about reaching a carbon-neutral future is over, but he ruled out doing what other countries are doing: taking a new 2030 or 2035 target to the COP26 summit in Glasgow late this year.

Our Paris commitment to reduce emissions by 26 to 28 per cent from a 2005 base was political and it is inadequate to meet the Paris objective. A 26 per cent target is consistent with global warming of about 3 degrees and much more in Australia. 

Recently, our Bureau of Meteorology gave evidence to the Senate that current world targets have Australia on track to warm by a catastrophic 4.4 degrees by the end of the century.

The initial recommendation of the government’s own Climate Change Authority, in 2014, was for a 2030 target of 45 to 65 per cent, if we were to pull our weight globally. Since then the CCA has been ignored and nobbled – indeed, the government sought to abolish it, the carbon price was repealed, emissions have risen, and the carbon budget has been plundered. 

The government has refused to ask the CCA to update our remaining carbon budget. Its target ensures a climate catastrophe, while the opposition doesn’t really have one.

Recognising that Australia will need to offer a stronger 2030 target for Biden’s climate summit in April, and at COP26 in November, a group of our most senior climate scientists and I decided it was time for science and evidence to re-enter the debate. We formed the independent Climate Targets Panel to do the analysis and its report will be released on Thursday.

Victoria gets trillion-dollar bad news: sea level rises will swamp parts of the state

It’s what the government should have got the CCA to do: work out how much of our climate budget it has spent over the past six years, and what our updated targets will need to be to stay below the 2 degree threshold.

Our panel included Labor’s former climate science adviser, the globally renowned Will Steffen, and other eminent experts, including those whose work has been adopted by the CCA. We used the CCA’s methodology and the government’s own figures.

The government has squandered so much of the carbon budget that the 2030 target now needs to be a 50 per cent reduction on 2005 levels, and net zero by 2045, if we are to stay below 2 degrees. If we don’t adopt these targets we blow our Paris emissions budget.

If we are to have any chance of reaching the tighter objective of the Paris Agreement, and upon which our Pacific island neighbours rely for their survival, namely to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees, then we must get to net zero emissions by 2035, with a 74 per cent cut by 2030.

What is carbon capture and storage (and does it work)?

So, when you look at the data, and recognise the science, it is clear that Morrison’s posturing around “net zero by 2050” is nowhere near enough. 

While a 2050 target may work for some countries, with lower emissions profiles, or that have done more of the heavy lifting, it is not good enough for Australia. Our analysis is consistent with what Britain and the European Union are doing.

The analysis maintains the 2014 view of the CCA that, reflecting the nature of our economy and energy system, even though Australia makes up 0.33 per cent of the world’s population, it is entitled to 0.97 per cent of the world’s remaining carbon budget. Some may think this “fair share” is too generous, but even with it the government’s targets still massively overspend.

It is madness for the Coalition and Labor to be contemplating more coal-fired power. Australia is already seen as a global laggard. There is no vaccine for climate change. The planet does not recognise politics, only how much pollution is emitted.

Links

• Q&A: Short-Term 'Tribal' Politics Is Failing On Climate Action, John Hewson Says
• Australia, The Climate Laggard, Could Lead The World: Over To You, PM
• Retirement Savings At Risk From Climate Change: John Hewson
• John Hewson Slams Coalition On Climate Change While Business Takes Lead Reducing Emissions
• John Hewson Urges Liberal Conscience Vote On Climate Emergency
• (AU) Our Survival As A Species Requires Urgent Action
• The Morrison government has abrogated responsibility for the climate crisis to the states - John Hewson
• Climate Change: John Hewson Accuses Coalition Of 'National Disgrace'
• We Can't Leave Climate Policy To Our Short-Sighted Politicians
• Fake News, Politicians' Dishonesty Skewing Climate Debate, John Hewson Warns
• (AU) John Hewson: The Morrison Government Has Abrogated Responsibility For The Climate Crisis To The States

(AU) ‘Stop Us In Our Tracks’: Biden’s New Climate Chief John Kerry Invokes Australian Bushfires

Sydney Morning Herald - Bevan Shields | Matthew Knott

London: US President Joe Biden’s climate tsar has invoked last summer’s Australian bushfire crisis as evidence the world “can’t afford to lose any longer” and must urgently slash carbon emissions.

John Kerry, a former US secretary of state under Barack Obama, is rallying world leaders to bring more ambitious policies to a crunch summit in Glasgow later this year through his role as Biden’s international climate envoy.

His appointment and a much more aggressive approach to global warming by the Biden-led White House has put fresh pressure on the Morrison government to commit to net zero emissions by 2050.

Joe Biden’s choice of former secretary of state John Kerry as his climate envoy underscores the US President’s determination to tackle climate change. Credit: AP

The Biden administration made climate change its focus on Thursday AEDT, announcing a series of new executive orders designed to elevate climate “as an essential element of US foreign policy and national security”.

The White House announced it was suspending all oil and gas leases on federal land, would begin transforming the government’s vast fleet of cars and trucks into electric vehicles and propose legislation to eliminate fossil fuel subsidies.

Biden will host a leaders’ climate summit on Earth Day, April 22, in a bid to create momentum before the Glasgow event in November.

‘We need to be bold’: US President Joe Biden. Credit: AP

“We’ve waited too long to deal with this climate crisis,” Biden said at a White House signing ceremony.

“This is not a time for small measures. We need to be bold.”

US under Biden to test Morrison government's do-little climate stance

Biden has also created a new office of domestic climate policy to co-ordinate climate policy across key government agencies.

In his first appearance at the White House briefing room, Kerry said: “The stakes on climate change just simply couldn’t be any higher than they are right now [...] This is an issue where failure, literally, is not an option.”

Speaking earlier at the World Economic Forum, Kerry said he had read an article over Christmas “that ought to stop every single one of us in our tracks”.

Headlined “Watching Earth Burn”, the story by New York Times writer Michael Benson pieced together satellite images of the Australian bushfire emergency.

“You could see huge plumes of smoke when you saw these pictures of Australia’s fires with, and I quote Michael, ‘flame vortexes spiralling 200 feet into the air’ passing New Zealand and stretching thousands of miles into the cobalt Pacific,” Kerry said.

He continued to quote details in Benson’s article, including the razing of an estimated 46 million acres, loss of dozens of lives, destruction of nearly 6000 buildings and potential extinction of some species.

“Benson summed it up,” Kerry said. “With shocking iconographic precision, that unfurling banner of smoke said: The war has started. We’re losing.”  


Prme Minister Scott Morrison has pledged to work closely with the US President-Elect Joe Biden on key issues such as climate change.

Kerry did not directly criticise Australia’s climate change policies but earlier this week said he would push the world’s largest emitters to sign up to deeper cuts.

Australia has a goal of cutting emissions by 26-28 per cent by 2030. It has not signed up to achieving net zero emissions by 2050 but Morrison’s language has shifted recently and many Liberal MPs believe he will take the pledge at the Glasgow summit.

“So we are here now, at this moment, not just because we understand the urgency or the moral imperative, we’re here because we know we can’t afford to lose any longer and action is the one moral, economic and scientific imperative worth contemplating,” Kerry said.

He emphasised the need to limit temperature rises to 1.5 degrees but warned the world was on track to hit 4.1 or 4.5 degrees of warming. The Glasgow meeting was “the last best chance” to arrest the trajectory, Kerry said.

“But even if we did everything that was promised in Paris, folks, temperatures are going to rise to 3.7 degrees [of warming]. And that’s just because the conglomeration of all the things people were willing to do didn’t add up to what we need to do.”

Kerry estimated the world had to phase out coal five times faster than current rates, ramp up renewable energy six times faster and transition to electric vehicles 22 times faster.

Use Biden agenda to commit to net zero: Malcolm Turnbull

In a panel discussion after Kerry’s speech, Shell CEO Ben van Beurden said companies knew they would have to reduce the supply of oil, gas and coal but said a careful transition was needed.

Kerry responded: “The problem with gas is if we build out a huge infrastructure for gas now and continue to use it as the bridge fuel when we haven’t really exhausted the other possibilities, we’re going to be stuck with stranded assets in 10, 20, 30 years.

“And gas is primarily methane. The fact is methane is 20 times [more] damaging, if not more, than fossil fuels.”

His views on gas are significant because the Morrison government has flagged the resource as a transition fuel for the coming decades.

Kerry also criticised China’s pledge to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060 when other countries have signed up to a 2050 target.

“China has said they’re gonna do something by 2060 but we don’t have a clue really, yet, about how they’re going to get there. I hope we can work with China. I hope we can get China to share a sense of how we get there sooner than 2060.”

At his later White House briefing room appearance, Kerry said the Biden administration would not trade away a tough stance on the South China Sea or intellectual property theft in order to co-operate with China on climate.

The statement announcing Biden’s executive order states that “both significant short-term global emission reductions and net zero global emissions by mid-century – or before – are required to avoid setting the world on a dangerous, potentially catastrophic, climate trajectory”.

Links

• The Biden Administration Is Already Calling on China to Do More on Climate Change
• John Kerry on Biden climate change plan: Stakes 'couldn't be any higher'
• John Kerry Addresses New Role as U.S. Climate Envoy (video)
• The verdict on Australia’s emissions targets: catastrophic
• John Kerry: ‘We have a big agenda’ on climate change
• Use Biden agenda to commit to net zero: Malcolm Turnbull 
• Doomsday clock panel welcomes Biden win but keeps hands at '100 seconds to midnight'
• US President Joe Biden pauses oil and gas leases, cuts subsidies in 'bold' climate steps
• Trade Minister Dan Tehan denies Australia on climate collision course with Joe Biden and US
• As Biden vows monumental action on climate change, a fight with the fossil fuel industry has only begun