01/01/2021

Floods, Storms And Searing Heat: 2020 In Extreme Weather

The Guardian - 

While Covid has dominated the news, the world has also felt the effects of human-driven global heating



This year has broken a series of unwelcome weather records. Last month was the warmest November in history. This followed the hottest January, May and September. All-time temperature peaks were registered from the Antarctic to the Arctic. Since the start of the year, Australia, Siberia and California have suffered record fires. The Atlantic has generated record storms. Ice in the Laptev Sea has started forming later than ever.

The coronavirus pandemic may have dominated the news and temporarily reduced emissions. But 2020 has also demonstrated the increasingly evident impact of human-driven global heating. The six hottest years in human history have all occurred since 2014. That sequence will certainly continue for a seventh year. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) will soon know whether 2020 will take first, second or third place in the all-time ranking.

Scientists are surprised temperatures have been so high in the absence of an El Niño, the phenomenon that boosts warmer years such as the current record, 2016. On the contrary, the latter half of this year there was the emergence of a cooling La Niña, which churned up chillier-than-normal waters in the equatorial Pacific. Petteri Taalas, the secretary-general of the WMO, said that without this influence, 2020 would certainly have been the warmest year ever measured.

In climate terms, the long-term trend is more important than individual records, but it is the latter that directly affects lives and livelihoods. Unusual heat, drought, fires or storms can be caused by natural variation, local factors or industrial emissions, but scientists are increasingly able to identify that extreme weather events are more frequent and intense as greenhouse gases build up in the atmosphere.

How each month of 2020 compares with the 140-year temperature record
+1.5C Monthly temperature anomaly from 20th century average

“2020 has been another very hot year. We see very strongly the impact of what that means on the changing intensity and likelihood of extreme weather events,” said Friederike Otto, the associate director of the Environmental Change Institute at University of Oxford and co-lead of the World Weather Attribution initiative (WWA). “Every year of more emissions and increasing global mean temperature has an impact on people.”

Humankind’s fingerprint was particularly evident in the Siberian heatwave, which was made at least 600 times more probable by humans, and the Australian bushfires, which were made more than 30% more likely.

Here is how this year unfolded with global heating at 1.1C above pre-industrial levels. This toll may seem horrifying, but it is just a sample – and will be modest compared with a future world on course for more than 3C of warming.


JANUARY Hottest January on record
Flooding in Jakarta, Indonesia, in January. Photograph: Anadolu Agency/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images
1 January
Record floods in Indonesia kill at least 19 people, with 62,000 evacuated. The national meteorological agency reports the highest daily rainfall seen in Jakarta since records began in 1866: “This is not ordinary rain.”

4 January
Temperatures in the Sydney basin hit a new high of 48.9C, the latest in a series of records in Australia. Bushfires create a 620 miles (1,000km) wide, 21 miles high smoke cloud, three times bigger than anything seen in the world before. It spreads so far that black charcoal reaches Antarctica. Scientists describe it as “a new benchmark on the magnitude of stratospheric perturbations”.


FEBRUARY Second-hottest February on record

Gentoo penguins at the Argentinian research base Esperanza, where the hottest temperature ever in Antarctica was reportedly recorded on 6 February. Photograph: Abbie Trayler-Smith/Greenpeace
6 February
Record mainland Antarctic heat. The Argentinian research base Esperanza on the northern tip of the Antarctic peninsula, measures a new high for the southern continent of 18.4C (65.3F).

9 February
Record Antarctic island heat. The 20.75C logged by Brazilian scientists at Seymour Island is almost a full degree higher than the previous record of 19.8C in 1982. This has still to be confirmed by the WMO.


MARCH Second-hottest March on record

Firefighters battle bushfires around the town of Nowra in New South Wales, Australia, on 31 December 2019. Photograph: Saeed Khan/AFP via Getty Images
31 March
The Australian bushfire season comes to an end after more than six months of destruction – 33 fatalities, 3,000 homes burned, and more than 10m hectares (25m acres) razed. Wildlife deaths are estimated at more than 1bn mammals, birds and reptiles combined, and hundreds of billions of insects. From the beginning of September 2019 to 23 February 2020, bushfires have emitted 434m tonnes of carbon dioxide, equivalent to about three-quarters of the discharges of Australian industry. Studies by the WWA indicate the bushfires were made at least 30% more probable by human-driven climate change. The summer of 2019-2020 is the second-hottest ever, after the previous year’s summer.
 
Nineteen of the 20 warmest years all have occurred since 2001, with the exception of 1998
 Change in global surface temperature relative to 1951-1980 average temperature
 Annual mean temperature anomaly in degrees





APRIL Second-hottest April on record

A flock of sheep roam along the Siling Lake in Naqu City in south-west China’s Tibet Autonomous Region. Photograph: Xinhua/REX/Shutterstock
30 April
Asia and Europe record their warmest first four months ever. In China, Yunnan reports the worst drought in 10 years. The Yunnan drought sparks seven forest fires and leaves 1.5 million people with water shortages.


MAY Joint-hottest May on record

Residents gather on the safe grounds with their belongings after the River Nzoia burst its banks in Busia County, Kenya. Photograph: Thomas Mukoya/Reuters

11 May
Devastating floods in Kenya and Uganda after heavy rain lead to 200 deaths, and the displacement of at least 400,000 people.

20 May
Super-cyclone Amphan is the fiercest storm to hit the Bay of Bengal this century, with winds of 118mph (190kmh). Two million people are evacuated, 129 killed. It is the costliest tropical cyclone on record, with losses in India of $14bn (£10bn).


JUNE Third-hottest June on record

A map showing land surface temperature anomalies from 19 March to 20 June 2020. Reds depict areas that were hotter than average for the same period from 2003-2018; blues were colder than average. Photograph: Nasa Handout/EPA

20 June
Record Arctic heat. The Russian town of Verkhoyansk registers 38C (more than 100F) amid a freakishly prolonged Siberian heatwave. Siberian wildfires cover almost 1m hectares and release 59m tonnes of carbon dioxide, surpassing last year’s record. On average, temperatures in this region of the Arctic have been 5C above average in the first six months of the year. Scientists from the WWA say this was made at least 600 times more probable by human emissions.


JULY Second-hottest July on record

Volunteers and residents work to repair a damaged dam following the landfall of Cyclone Amphan in Burigoalini. Photograph: Munir Uz Zaman/AFP/Getty Images
24 July
A third of Bangladesh is underwater after the most prolonged monsoon flooding this century, killing 550 and affecting 9.6 million people across the subcontinent.

31 July
Lowest Arctic sea ice extent for July since the beginning of satellite observations in 1979. The 7.1m km2 is 27% below the 1981-2010 average for this time of year.


AUGUST Second-hottest August on record

Death Valley national park in California recorded 54.4C on 16 August. Photograph: John Locher/AP
13 August
Two months of record rainfall in southern China kills 219 people, prompts the evacuation of 4 million, and causes $26bn in economic losses. The Three Gorges Dam inflow hits a record 72,000 cubic meters a second. The megacity of Chongqing is put on its highest flooding alert since 1981. 

16 August
Hottest summer ever in the northern hemisphere. Death Valley records a temperature of 54.4C (129.9F), the third-highest on Earth since 1931 (and the two previous records are in question).

26 August
Record fires in California. More than 405,000 hectares burn in nine days – more than three times the average in the “normal” wildfire season. At least five people are killed, and more than 100,000 evacuated.

28 August
Record rain in Karachi of 231mm (9 in) in a single day. Pakistan has the wettest month in its history.


SEPTEMBER World’s hottest September on record

A dead crocodile in the town of Porto Jofre in Mato Grosso state, Brazil, after fires devastate the region. Photograph: Carlos Ezequiel Vannoni/EPA



4-12 September
Record flooding in the Sahel region of Africa affects 500,000 people. The White and Blue Nile burst banks. The average level of the Blue Nile reaches 17.43 metres (57.19ft), the highest since Sudan started measuring in 1912. Senegal records 124mm of rain over a seven-hour downpour – the amount that would usually be expected across the entire rainy season from July to September. Sudan imposes a three-month state of emergency on 4 September, after rains destroys about 100,000 houses and kills more than 100 people. In Nigeria, flooding damages 500,000 hectares of farm produce, amounting to about 5bn naira (£9.8m), according to NKC African Economics.

12 September
Record fires, blazing since August, consume 28% of the Pantanal, the world’s largest tropical wetlands, spanning Brazil, Bolivia and Paraguay. Fires also consume 2.2m hectares of the Amazon.


OCTOBER World’s fourth hottest October on record

The October 2020 sea ice concentration in the Arctic. The yellow line shows 1981- 2010 median. Photograph: NASA
3 October
The UK has its wettest day on record after Storm Alex, with enough rain to fill Loch Ness.

4 October
Wildfires in California spread over 1.6m hectares , a new annual record for the most hectares burned in a single year.

31 October
The lowest Arctic sea ice extent for the month of October, after the latest ever start to ice formation in Laptev Sea.


NOVEMBER World’s second-hottest November on record

Residents walk across debris floating in floodwaters in a submerged village, as Typhoon Vamco hits in Rodriguez, Rizal province, Philippines. Photograph: Ezra Acayan/Getty Images

2 November
Philippines hit by Typhoon Goni, one of the strongest storms in history with gusts of up to 192 mph. At least 20 people are killed and almost a million evacuated.

17 November
Iota, the strongest hurricane on record to strike Nicaragua, triggers catastrophic flooding and landslides. At least 40 people die across Central America and Colombia. It follows Hurricane Eta – the first time on record the Atlantic has had two major hurricanes in November.

22 November
Somalia is devastated by Cyclone Gati, the strongest storm to hit this part of world since records in this region began five years ago. Rainfall in two days equals the two-year average. At least eight dead.


DECEMBER
Residents inspect an area filled with plastic rubbish after the passing of Hurricane Iota, in Puerto Cabezas, Nicaragua. Photograph: Oswaldo Rivas/Reuters

1 December
Record-breaking Atlantic hurricane season ends. Thirty storms grew strong enough to earn a name, beating 2005’s record of 28 storms. The WMO ran out of storm names by September, turning to the Greek alphabet for labels for the first time since 2005.

4 December
The bushfire season starts early in Australia with devastating wildfires on Fraser Island as experts worry that the months ahead could be disastrous.

12 December
The World Meteorological Agency says 2020 is certain to be among the three hottest years ever recorded. Although global emissions are likely to have fallen by 7% this year, carbon concentrations in the atmosphere continue to rise. The UN reports global heating in on course to reach 3.2C by the end of the century because governments are not taking sufficient climate action to keep temperatures to the Paris Agreement target of 1.5C to 2C. All eyes are now on the UN climate conference (Cop26) in Glasgow next year.

30 December
Almost one year on from the first reported case of Covid-19 in Wuhan, China, the worldwide death toll of the pandemic has passed 1.6 million people and is estimated to cause $28tn of losses. Scientists have warned such outbreaks will become more common as the world’s natural life support systems, including the climate, break down as a result of rising temperatures, deforestation and the illegal wildlife trade. The UN secretary general says humanity has been waging war on nature, and that making peace will be the defining task of the 21st century. 

Atmospheric CO2 continues to rise despite a drop in emissions this year
 

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(AU) Australia Is The Last Western Hold Out On The Climate Crisis. But Some States And Businesses Are Calling For Change

CNN | Helen Regan

 Thousands protest government's climate policies in Australia (02:28)

Deep in northeast Australia's outback, underneath grassy eucalypt woodlands and vast grazing lands scattered with cattle stations, lies one of the world's largest known untapped coal reserves.

Queensland's Galilee Basin, an area roughly the size of Britain, is set to produce its first coal in 2021, to be moved by rail 300 kilometers to the coast, where it will be loaded onto cargo ships that will sail through the Great Barrier Reef to ship it to Asia.

The controversial Carmichael mine has become a symbol of the environmental split that has emerged in 21st century Australia.

As the country experiences devastating bush fires and record temperatures, public opinion is in favor of greater action on the climate crisis, protecting the country's precious natural heritage, and investments in renewable energy, surveys show, but Prime Minister Scott Morrison and his government remain entwined with the powerful fossil fuel industry.

That's made Australia an outlier among the big global economies. Earlier this year, US President-elect Joe Biden pledged to reach net zero emissions by 2050. China, South Korea, and Japan all made similar pledges this year, as did the UK and the EU in 2019.

The beginning of the Carmichael River, which will be cut by the void of the Carmichael Coal mine.
Coal awaiting export at the Abbot Point coal terminal, in Queensland, Australia, July 5, 2017. Australia has approved the Adani Group's Carmichael coal mine project, which would export through this port.
Australia has made no such pledge. It hasn't yet updated its Paris Agreement targets -- already considered weak -- of cutting planet-heating emissions by 26% to 28% from 2005 levels by mid-century.

And Australia's emissions per capita are nearly three times higher than the G20 average. Recently, Morrison said Australia was aiming to reach zero emissions as soon as possible, but wouldn't give a timeline. 

But outside Canberra it's a different picture.

Every Australian state and territory has pledged to reach net zero emissions by 2050.

In the private sector, businesses are investing in innovative renewable mega-energy projects, taking advantage of Australia's world-class wind and solar resources.

One project is set to power a large chunk of Singapore's electricity needs via an undersea cable, and another aims to build a huge renewable power station that could be a game changer for Australia in becoming a leading exporter of green hydrogen.

With states and industry forging ahead on climate solutions, the country's most impactful climate action might not come from the man leading the nation.

Australian states forging ahead

In November, New South Wales announced a plan to support 12 gigawatts of wind and solar and 2 gigawatts of energy storage through the construction of renewable energy zone to replace its aging coal plants.

The state government estimates the plan would drive $32 billion in investment to the region, lower electricity prices and create more than 6,000 more jobs in the next 10 years. These zones are like traditional power stations but transmit, store and generate electricity from renewable sources like solar, wind and pumped hydro.

Sheep graze in front of wind turbines on Lake George on September 1, 2020, on the outskirts of Canberra, Australia.
Speaking to Sky News, NSW Minister for Energy and Environment Matt Kean said: "The reality is 70% of our two-way trade are now with countries committed to achieve net zero emissions," adding that the new projects will "set us up to not only be an energy superpower but an economic superpower."

Neighboring Queensland is investing $145 million to establish its own renewable energy zones and Victoria, which has had success in installing thousands of rooftop solar panels on homes and businesses across the state, is supporting a further 600 megawatts of renewable energy. The state government claims this would be enough to power every hospital and school in the state.

"There's a push also to put batteries on both of those pieces of public infrastructure so that they would essentially be able to sell their electricity to the grid too, which would offset some of their costs -- providing more opportunity for them to spend their resources on vital, services like education and health," said Amanda McKenzie, CEO of the Climate Council.

Victoria will also be home to the world's largest battery to ensure grid security. The Tesla battery will generate 300 megawatts and will help the state meet its renewable energy targets of 50% by 2030.

"There's a growing enthusiasm for the economic opportunities associated with renewable energy," said McKenzie. "I think that states are starting to see the scale of economic opportunity that can come with the transition."

Solar panels array, Ceres Environmental Park, Brunswick East, Melbourne, Australia
Exporting Australian sunshine

The private sector in Australia is also seeking to capitalize on the abundance of sunshine and wind in the country. Some of these projects are breathtaking in their scale.

In the red desert of the remote Northern Territory, two of Australia's richest people are backing a $20 billion plan to build the world's biggest solar farm and battery storage facility, which will span 12,000 hectares (29,600 acres) and, they claim, be visible from space.

When completed, it will export enough electricity through a 3,711 kilometer-long undersea cable to power a fifth of Singapore's energy needs. The Sun Cable initiative has been given major project status -- meaning the government has formally recognized the significance of the project to the Australian economy.

Sun Cable aims to provide renewable energy to the Northern Territory by the end of 2027, with solar exports worth around $2 billion every year. It eventually aims to link up to Indonesia, too.

"If it comes off, it would be really a ground-breaking system," said Bill Hare, CEO of climate science and policy institute Climate Analytics.


In Western Australia's Pilbara region, the sun shines hot and strong winds blow throughout the day and night: ideal conditions to build the world's biggest power station.

The Asian Renewable Energy Hub will cover a 6,600 square kilometer area space -- about six-and-a-half times the size of Hong Kong. Funded through a consortium of backers, the $36 billion project is expected to have a capacity of 26 gigawatts -- the equivalent of 40% of Australia's electricity consumption.

A vast swathe of solar panels will soak up the sun's rays and, together with 1,743 wind turbines, generate round the clock renewable energy. That will mostly power electrolyzers that split water into green hydrogen. The hub said it plans to turn this hydrogen into ammonia so, as a liquid, it's easier to transport.

Hydrogen is already used in a vast array of industries, from rocket fuel, to fertilizing crops, to making plastics and pharmaceuticals. But extracting hydrogen is traditionally done with fossil fuels, causing planet-warming emissions.

Green hydrogen is manufactured with renewable energy -- such as solar or wind -- so it would eliminate those polluting emissions. While the technology has been around for decades, rapidly falling prices of solar and wind means the electrolyzing process is now financially viable, though still expensive.

Alex Tancock, founder and managing director of Intercontinental Energy, a partner in the hub, said the project "has shown the world what is possible."

"It has leapfrogged this whole discussion of scaling up pilot stage projects. And it has shown that oil and gas-scale projects are possible that are green," he said.

Green hydrogen is gaining traction among governments and businesses pledging to slash their emissions completely by 2050, and has the potential to clean up energy-intensive industries such as transport and construction that are more difficult to electrify.


Hare notes that currently 75% to 80% of Australia's fossil fuels go to Japan, Korea and China. "We know each of those countries is looking at hydrogen for the future," Hare said. "As an Australian, we just cannot afford to wait to develop these markets."

McKenzie of the Climate Council adds that "a lot of Australian businesses now, are committing to 100% renewable energy," and calling on the federal government to do more.

Coal country and a tense transition

Recently, the Australian government has made some good noises on green energy.

In September, the government announced a technology-focused roadmap and a $1.4 billion energy investment package, which including driving down the price of hydrogen to under $2 a kilogram, battery storage and carbon capture and storage. It planned to invest $18 billion in low emissions tech over the next ten years.

"Australia has a plan to put the technology in place to reduce emissions and ensure we achieve the Kyoto commitments, as we already have demonstrated, and, importantly, the Paris commitments before us. What matters is what you get done, and Australia is getting it done on emissions reduction," Morrison told parliament on December 10.

But there are still parts of Australia's energy policy that trouble climate experts.

For example, within the series of recent announcements was support for a gas-fired economic recovery from the pandemic fallout, which included unlocking five gas basins. "Gas is a critical enabler of Australia's economy," Morrison said.

But investing in natural gas -- a fossil fuel -- is not in line with the government's own commitments to reduce emissions.

A recent report from the Grattan Institute, found that natural gas use is in decline, prices -- especially on the east coast -- will become expensive, and its benefits to manufacturing were "overstated."

"If the government tries to swim against this tide by directly intervening in the market, taxpayers will pay the price via big subsidies," the report said.

CNN has reached out to the Prime Minister's office for comment.

A coal mine in Bulga, the Hunter Valley north of Sydney on November 18, 2015.
Australia has another abundant natural resource: coal.

The country is the world's second largest exporter of coal and in states such as Queensland and New South Wales mining is a big industry -- and employer -- in rural communities.

Climate scientists say it will be necessary to phase out coal power in developed countries by 2030, and in the rest of the world by 2040, if the world wants to avoid catastrophic climate change.

But according to the Climate Action Tracker, Australia's coal production is set to increase by 4% from 2020 to 2030.

Despite that in Queensland's Galilee basin, mining giant Adani's new Carmichael thermal coal mine would produce 10 million metric tons of coal every year over its 60 year lifetime. Much of that will be supplied to India, which still depends on coal to meet most of its energy needs.

The project, which has been in the works for several years, was given the green light by the government last year, in part, to create jobs in a high unemployment area.

But it has enraged environmental campaigners, who say it will be a "death sentence" for the Great Barrier Reef because of the high levels of carbon pollution that coal produces. Large parts of the reef have already been destroyed by rising ocean temperatures linked to global warming.

Climate activists and scientists also say the mine and rail link could open the way for five other mines in the basin to go ahead, and coal produced from this mine could directly impact global emissions.

Adani, which renamed its Australian operations last month to Bravus Mining and Resources, said the mine and rail project has already created 2,000 jobs.

When asked for comment about the emissions it will produce, the company directed CNN to a statement disputing that emissions from its coal will have an impact on the reef.

"The process of mining 10 million tonnes of coal per annum at the Carmichael mine will produce 240,000 tonnes of carbon dioxide emissions," the company said in a statement.

"Adani's Carmichael mine is a much smaller mine than many others in Queensland and when the coal is used overseas the amount of carbon dioxide that will be produced will represent less than 0.04% of Australia's emissions and less than 0.0006% of global emissions, which is not enough to have an impact on the Great Barrier Reef."

At the heart of Australia's potential green energy transition is this tension between the nation's history as a fossil fuel powerhouse and its obligation reduce emissions to stop catastrophic climate change.

Pressure to commit to stronger climate action is increasing from the states, from business, from communities, Pacific Island nations, and western countries. And there does appear to be some softening.

Prime Minister Scott Morrison speaks during a press conference on October 16, 2020, in Sydney, Australia.
Morrison, who was left out of a major virtual climate summit this month hosted by the UN, UK and France because of his lack of climate ambition, has said he won't use controversial Kyoto carryover credits to achieve Australia's emissions targets.

Carryover credits are a carbon accounting measure and Australia had argued that because it did well in reducing emissions in the Kyoto period (2008 to 2012), it can offset that amount to meet its Paris Agreement commitments. No country has taken these seriously, however.

While states and business are making strong moves, if Australia is going to become a leader in the renewable revolution, experts say the federal government has to step up, too.

For the electrification of transport -- especially heavy trucks or buses -- or to make efficiency improvements in industry, experts say federal incentives are needed, as well as a carbon tax.

Hare said that while some energy-intensive industries -- such as mining -- are moving to renewables for some of their operations, "it isn't at scale yet, and it won't happen at scale until governments all get on the game with the right type sort incentives."

With a strong renewable energy and emissions target, the federal government could capitalize on the economic opportunities that Australia's natural advantages offer -- and protect the country from an onslaught of climate damage such as worsening bushfires and droughts, rising sea levels, and more extreme weather.

The government "needs to accelerate and coordinate all the efforts that are going on, to make sure that it can be ratcheted up very quickly, so that Australia's very high emissions can plummet, if we're going to protect our national interest," said McKenzie.

"If we can demonstrate how to make transition happen quickly in a coal-dependent economy," she said. "Australia could be the testing ground and a model in this new world." 

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(AU) Australia Trails Pacific Nations In Fight Against Climate Change

Sydney Morning Herald - Peter Walton

Author
Peter Walton is the CEO of Care Australia.
This is not normal. Such a statement might seem unsurprising in a year when our very definition of normal has been turned on its head.

But these words weren’t written about COVID-19. This was how Fiji Prime Minister Frank Bainimarama described the Category 5 cyclone that tore across the island nation earlier this month.

The full extent of Cyclone Yasa’s carnage is still being assessed, but thousands are reported to have lost their homes.

Tropical cyclone Yasa tore through Fiji on December 17. Credit: KKU The Fijian Artist/Twitter
Fiji is accustomed to cyclones, but in recent years, their strength has taken even the most seasoned observer by surprise.

Meanwhile, hurricanes in the Caribbean have been so common this year that the World Meteorological Organisation exhausted its list of names and resorted to using the Greek alphabet for only the second time.

Extreme weather
The beasts to our east: What are El Ninos and La Ninas? 
And of course there were Australia’s own bushfires last summer, which shocked the nation and the world with their unprecedented ferocity. 

In other words, climate-related disasters are increasingly breaking their own records, which is why — five years on from the Paris Agreement — it is heartening to see so many countries doubling down on their emissions reduction commitments.

Australia's major trading partners Japan and South Korea have committed to net-zero emissions by 2050, as has China by 2060. The UK, EU and New Zealand have also committed to the 2050 target, as has US president-elect Joe Biden.

The ferocity of last summer's bushfires shocked Australians.
In our Pacific neighbourhood, Tonga has become the latest country to release an updated plan for reducing emissions and adapting to climate risks. Despite its contribution to global greenhouse gas emissions being negligible, Tonga’s commitments include 70 per cent renewable energy by 2030 and planting one million trees by 2023.

Australia, however, is sticking with the unambitious goal of a 26 per cent-28 per cent reduction on 2005 levels by 2030. This is nowhere near enough.

Bushfires
Australia's image takes hit after bushfires over lack of climate action.
It's bad enough that Australia is not pulling its weight compared to other similarly wealthy countries with high consumption and per-capita emissions. But when we are shown up by the very nations that have the most to lose from climate change — despite being least to blame on many measures — it really gives pause for thought.

Climate change is already affecting us all, but the stakes are particularly high — existentially high — for Pacific Islands nations.

As Anote Tong, former president of the low-lying island nation of Kiribati, recently wrote in the Sydney Morning Herald, the current trajectory would lead to flooding so intense as to render his homeland uninhabitable.

Despite pressure from major trading parties and the community, Australia's federal government has defended its conservative emissions targets. Credit: James Brickwood
While the prospect of nations being wiped off the map by rising sea levels is the most commonly understood impact of climate change in the Pacific, it is by no means the only one. Nor do we have to look into the future to find examples.
Climate change is making super-storms terrifyingly frequent. Cyclone Yasa was the 16th Category 5 cyclone in the South Pacific since 2000 — a fourfold increase on the 20 years before, when there were only four such cyclones.

Forced into a perpetual state of picking up the pieces from one disaster after another, island nations’ resources are drained away from important tasks such as reducing poverty. As we’ve seen during the pandemic, it’s the most marginalised people hit hardest during a crisis, such as women and those on low incomes.
Biodiversity
Signs of hope and wonder in a year of plague and fires. 

This is not to say climate challenges are being taken lying down. Forced to innovate out of sheer necessity, people living on the frontlines of climate change can teach the world plenty.

But adapting to live with a problem is no substitution for stopping the problem at its source before it’s too late — which is where emissions reduction comes in.

For countries that have contributed so minimally to the problem, Pacific Island nations’ are doing more than their fair share of heavy lifting.

A child wades through sludge on the Island Republic of Kiribati, which often experiences inundation on high tides and is one of a number of low-lying nations exposed to the worst effects of rising waters due to climate change. Credit: James Alcock

The region is responsible for 0.03 per cent of global emissions. This is not just due to their small populations. Even on a per capita basis, Pacific Islanders are responsible for a fraction of the average Australian’s greenhouse gas emissions — 16.88 tonnes in 2018. By contrast, the average person in Fiji was responsible for 2.41 tonnes, Vanuatu 0.53 tonnes and low-lying Kiribati just 0.6 tonnes.

Yet Fiji was the first country to ratify the Paris Agreement, and the Marshall Islands was the first to adopt a net-zero-by-2050 target back in 2018, with the country’s then-president telling fellow leaders “if we can do it, so can you”.

Australia must help Pacific neighbours prepare for a world in which super-storms, floods, drought and other climate-related disasters become even more frequent and severe. Every dollar we spend on preparation will save lives and money over and over again into the future.

Importantly, a good neighbour recognises when they have been — and continue to be — complicit in the problem. Pacific nations have led the way on committing to net zero by 2050, and the world is following suit. It’s time we did too. 

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