15/01/2021

Positive Tipping Points Offer Climate Hope

Cosmos - 

Analysing cases of successful societal shift points the way.

Solar panels may be reaching a tipping point in Australia. Credit: Sven Hagolani / Getty Images

While tipping points are often used to describe the negative impacts of climate change, researchers have found some points of optimism as well.

A new study has highlighted examples of positive “tipping points” in human societies that could rapidly slash carbon emissions.

Timothy Lenton, director of the Global Systems Institute at the University of Exeter and Simon Sharpe, deputy director in the UK Cabinet Office COP 26 unit highlight examples that have contributed to the world’s fast low-carbon transitions in road transport and power generation. 

“We focus on two sectors – light road transport and power – where tipping points have already been triggered by policy interventions at individual nation scales,” they write in their paper published in the journal Climate Policy. 

They say that “small coalitions of countries” could trigger “upward-scaling tipping cascades” to achieve more. 

“Limiting global warming to well below 2⁰C now requires transformational change and a dramatic acceleration of progress,” says Lenton. “Many people are questioning whether this is achievable. But hope lies in the way that tipping points can spark rapid change through complex systems.” 

In Norway, policies have made electric vehicles (EVs) the same price to buy as conventional cars, leading to EVs accounting for 50% of car sales. Globally, this figure sits at 2–3%. 

The authors say a global tipping point will come when EVs cost the same to manufacture as conventional cars. They suggest a small number of key locations could help drive this change, such as China, the EU and California – who together make up half the world’s car sales. 

Another example the researchers highlight is the decarbonisation of the power sector in the UK. In recent years, the UK has carried this out faster than any other large country. 

The combination of a carbon tax and an EU emissions scheme made gas cheaper than coal. With increasing renewable energy generation, coal was tipped into unprofitability. The researchers suggest a tipping point will occur when the capital cost of coal plants falls below that of wind and solar in all countries. 

“If either of these efforts – in power or road transport – succeed, the most important effect could be to tip perceptions of the potential for international cooperation to tackle climate change,” Lenton says. 

Mark Holdem from the Australian National University (ANU) says that in Australia, a similar lesson might be learned from the roll out of solar photovoltaic (PV) cells in Australia. 

In 2019, the Australian PV Institute reported that installation increased in residential, commercial and large-scale solar markets and by the end of October 2020, more than 2.59 million rooftop solar power systems had been installed. 

“If you push out PV at a very large scale, that pushes down the price of panels and also the price of installation. Newer, better and cheaper ways of installing the panels come in,” Holdem says.  

“That also generates an alteration of the energy market and [puts pressure on] regulation to remove barriers for renewables coming into the market.”

Holdem adds the solar PV rollout has led to a reduction in electricity prices, which leads to more panels being installed, driving down prices even further.

“You get this feedback system: some panels drives more panels, which drives more panels. All of that drives down greenhouse emissions, which takes the foot off the climate change accelerator.”

Lenton and Sharpe highlight that these tipping points are by no means inevitable and that policies will be required to overcome the many barriers to transition. Holdem agrees. 

“We need a consistent and forward-looking policy framework which integrates climate policy with energy, industry and science policy, as well as framing this as something Australia has to do to be part of the climate change solution. It’s actually in our interests to do really well and be doing proactively.”

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(AU) Rising Sea Levels Visibly Transforming Parts Of Coastal Region Around Kakadu National Park

 ABC News - Tom Joyner | Rhiannon Stevens


The dead forest at Tommycut Creek, a remote channel off the Mary River in the NT.

Key Points
  • Kakadu's freshwater floodplains could eventually be totally lost due to climate change
  • The impact of rising sea levels is already visible in coastal areas of the Kakadu region
  • Kakadu is Australia's largest national park and is World Heritage listed
Floodplains around Australia's largest national park are undergoing a visible transformation as rising sea levels push saltwater further from the coast into its freshwater river systems.

Climate change is understood to be driving the phenomenon along the coastal region around Kakadu National Park in the Northern Territory, which will likely have dramatic consequences in the coming century.

If emissions continue to rise, modelling by the CSIRO from 2017 shows almost half of Kakadu's freshwater wetlands could be inundated with saltwater within 50 years, spelling out drastic repercussions for biodiversity.

Due to a process that began decades ago, evidence of saltwater inundation is plain to see in areas of the park and beyond, where mangroves — shrubs that thrives in brackish water — have taken over as far as the eye can see.

At Tommycut Creek, a remote channel off the Mary River near Kakadu's western boundary, what was once a paperbark forest is now a graveyard of bleached and stricken trunks.

The "dead forest" offers a glimpse into the future for similar low-lying coastal areas along the Top End coast, which are most vulnerable to rising sea levels.

Tommycut Creek gives a glimpse into the future for similar low-lying coastal areas. (ABC News: Tom Joyner)

By 2132 the CSIRO's modelling predicts Kakadu's freshwater floodplains could be entirely affected by a rising tide of seawater.

"Each year that tree line of mangroves keeps pushing further and further up into the dead forest," said Chris Mills, a local guide who has fished the Mary River for barramundi since his childhood.

"Eventually it's just going to become a saltwater habitat."

'It could be grim'

On a high tide, Mr Mills can steer his boat among the towering stalks of Tommycut Creek, but mangroves are beginning to block his path.

Another narrow waterway that for years served as a shortcut for many anglers known as The Cutting is now impassable.

To slow the rising tide of seawater, a network of mud barriers called barrages were installed by the Northern Territory Government in the 1980s.

In 2019 a report commissioned by the NT Government found barrages had a negative impact on the environment — causing soil damage, erosion and sedimentation — and could no longer hold back the tide.

"The effectiveness of barrages reduce over time as sea level rise and climate change, i.e. extreme weather events, continue to impact the Top End," a Government spokesperson said.

The same year the report was released, the Mary River saltwater intrusion program was axed as part of the NT Government budget repair, a Government spokesperson said.

The Mary River in the NT on Kakadu's western edge. (ABC News: Rhiannon Stevens)

The ecological changes now being seen in the Kakadu region have long been predicted by climate modelling, said Professor Lindsay Hutley, an environmental scientist from Charles Darwin University.

"Changes are afoot, and we're starting to see them manifesting themselves around Australia in terms of ecosystem failure."

The unique topography of the Top End means sea levels are rising there at more than double the global average.

While the long-term impacts of sea level rise are hard to predict, on Kakadu's floodplains "it'll probably happen fairly quickly", Professor Hutley said. "It could be grim."

Hundreds of birds and thousands of plant species call Kakadu National Park home. (ABC News: Tom Joyner)

Will Kakadu be unrecognisable?

Ranger and traditional owner Simon Mudjandi has heard stories of sea level rise and its effects on the region from elders since he was young.

"It's like acid eating something up," he said.

Covering roughly 2 million hectares east of Darwin, Kakadu National Park is a World Heritage listed area.

Hundreds of birds and thousands of plant species call it home and it has been a place of great Aboriginal cultural importance for tens of thousands of years.

A member of the park's Indigenous ranger program, Mr Mudjandi spends his days travelling the region, monitoring sites and working on conservation projects.

He is concerned the park won't be accessible for future generations of traditional owners.

"Kakadu is really important to me and my family because the park has a lot of sacred sites and it has stories as well," he said.

Chris Mills hopes the wildlife and fish the Mary River is famous for will be here for generations to come. (ABC News: Tom Joyner)

A spokesman for Parks Australia said it was working with traditional owners to mitigate the impact of climate change in Kakadu and its climate change strategy was currently being updated.

Despite the gradual transformation of the river systems in the Kakadu region, fishing guide Chris Mills wants his future grandchildren to experience the park too.

"Hopefully, it's still got the floodplains, the wildlife," he said.

"It will still be an amazing fishery and people will travel from a long way to come and see it." 

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(US) Biden Plans To Fight Climate Change In A Way No U.S. President Has Done Before

The Conversation - 

Managing climate change requires a systems approach, with strategic coordination across all sectors. Elenabs via Getty Images

Author
 is Director, Center for the New Energy Economy, Colorado State University. He is a former Governor of Colorado.
Joe Biden is preparing to deal with climate change in a way no U.S. president has done before – by mobilizing his entire administration to take on the challenge from every angle in a strategic, integrated way.

The strategy is evident in the people Biden has chosen for his Cabinet and senior leadership roles: Most have track records for incorporating climate change concerns into a wide range of policies, and they have experience partnering across agencies and levels of government.

Those skills are crucial, because slowing climate change will require a comprehensive and coordinated “all hands on deck” approach.

We did that with energy when I was governor of Colorado, and I can tell you it isn’t simple.

Energy policy isn’t just about electricity.

It’s about how homes are built, how they generate power and feed it into the grid and how the transportation, industrial and agriculture sectors evolve.

It’s about regulations, trade rules, government purchases and funding for research for innovation.

Coordination and collaboration among agencies and different levels of government is crucial.

The task of coordinating climate actions across the government falls to Gina McCarthy, a former EPA administrator who will be Biden’s national climate advisor. Joshua Roberts/Getty Images

A coordinated approach also helps ensure that vulnerable populations aren’t overlooked. Biden has committed to help disadvantaged communities that have too often borne the brunt of fossil fuel industry pollution, as well as those that have been losing fossil fuel jobs.

The Biden-Harris team’s depth of experience will be vital as they take over from a Trump administration that has been stripping government agencies of their expertise and eliminating environmental protections.

With Democrats gaining control of both the House and Senate, the Biden administration may also have a better chance of overhauling laws, funding and tax incentives in ways that could fundamentally transform the U.S. approach to climate change.

Here are some of the biggest challenges ahead and what “all hands on deck” might mean.

Dealing with all those climate policy rollbacks

From its first days, the Trump administration began trying to nullify or weaken U.S. environmental regulations. It had rolled back 84 environmental rules by November 2020, including major climate policies, and more rollbacks were being pursued, according to a New York Times analysis of research from Harvard and Columbia law schools.

Many of these rules had been designed to reduce climate-warming pollution from power plants, cars and trucks. Several reduced emissions of methane, a potent greenhouse gas, from oil and gas production. The Trump administration also moved to open more land to more drilling, mining and pipelines.

Some rollbacks have been challenged in court and the rules then reinstated. Others are still being litigated. Many will require going through government rule-making processes that take years to reverse.

Michael Regan will contend with many of the Trump administration’s rollbacks as Biden’s choice to head the EPA. Alex Edelman/Getty Images

Pressuring other countries to take action

Biden can quickly bring the U.S. back into the international Paris climate agreement, through which countries worldwide agreed to reduce the greenhouse gas emissions driving global warming. But reestablishing the nation’s leadership role with the international climate community is a much longer haul.

Former Secretary of State John Kerry will lead this effort as special envoy for climate change, a new Cabinet-level position with a seat on the National Security Council.

Other parts of the government can also pressure countries to take action.

International development funding can encourage climate-friendly actions, and trade agreements and tariffs can establish rules of conduct.

Then-Secretary of State John Kerry (right), with climate envoy Todd Stern and Brian Deese while negotiating the Paris climate agreement in 2015. Deese (left) is Biden’s choice to head the National Economic Council. Mandel Ngan, Pool photo via AP

Cleaning up the power sector

The Biden-Harris climate plan aims to cut greenhouse gas emissions from the power sector to net zero by 2035.

While 62 major utilities in the U.S. have set their own emission reduction goals, most leaders in that sector would argue that requiring net zero emissions by 2035 is too much too fast.

One problem is that states are often more involved in regulating the power sector than the federal government. And, when federal regulations are passed, they are often challenged in court, meaning they can take years to implement.

Reducing greenhouse gases also requires modernizing the electricity transmission grid. The federal government can streamline the permitting process to allow more clean energy, like wind and solar power, onto the grid. Without that intervention, it could take a decade or more to permit a single transmission line.



What to do about vehicles, buildings and ag

The power sector may be the easiest sector to “decarbonize.” The transportation sector is another story.

Transportation is now the nation’s leading emitter of carbon dioxide. Decarbonizing it will require a transition away from the internal combustion engine in a relatively short amount of time.

Again, this is a challenge that requires many parts and levels of government working toward the same goal. It will require expanding carbon-free transportation, including more electric vehicles, charging stations, better battery technology and clean energy.

That involves regulations and funding for research and development from multiple departments, as well as trade agreements, tax incentives for electric vehicles and a shift in how government agencies buy vehicles.

The EPA can facilitate these efforts or hamstring them, as happened when the Trump EPA revoked California’s ability to set higher emissions standards – something the Biden administration is likely to quickly restore.

The other “hard to decarbonize” sectors – buildings, industry and agriculture – will require sophistication and collaboration among all federal departments and agencies unlike any previous efforts across government.

A new comprehensive climate bill

The best way to tackle these sectors would be a comprehensive climate bill that uses some mechanism, like a clean energy standard, that sets a cap, or limit, on emissions and tightens it over time.

Here, the problem lies more in the politics of the moment than anything else. Biden and his team will have to convince lawmakers from fossil fuel-producing states to work on these efforts.

Democratic control of the Senate raises the chances that Congress could pass comprehensive climate legislation, but that isn’t a given. Until that happens, Biden will have to rely on agencies issuing new rules, which are vulnerable to being revoked by future administrations. It’s a little like playing chess without a queen or rooks.

Years of delays have allowed global warming to progress so far that many of its impacts may soon become irreversible. To meet its ambitious goals, the administration will need everyone, progressives and conservatives, state and local leaders, and the private sector, to work with them.

Biden's core climate team 
President-elect Joe Biden's senior leadership picks have years of experience with climate policy. He and Vice President-elect Kamala Harris introduced these seven as their core climate team. Gina McCarthy, John Kerry and Ali Zaidi will not require Senate confirmation. The others will.
Table: The Conversation/CC-BY-ND Source: Biden announcements

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