01/04/2021

(AU) 'Delay Is As Dangerous As Denial': Scientists Urge Australia To Reach Net Zero Emissions Faster

The Guardian - 

Heatwaves to double and many properties will be uninsurable if global heating reaches 3C, Australian Academy of Science says

A house surrounded by flood water in Port Stephens. Scientists call on the Morrison government to accelerate the transition to net zero in a report that examines what Australia could look like in a 3C world. Photograph: Darren Pateman/AAP
Global heating of 3C would more than double the number of annual heatwaves in some parts of Australia, leave properties uninsurable due to flood and fire risk, and make many of the country’s ecosystems “unrecognisable”, according to Australia’s leading scientists.

The Australian Academy of Science is calling on the Morrison government to accelerate the country’s transition to net zero greenhouse gas emissions in a report that examines what Australia could look like in a 3C world.

The analysis paints a grim picture in which heatwaves in states such as Queensland would occur seven times a year and last for 16 days at a time, and unprecedented fire seasons such as the 2019-20 fire disaster become a regular occurrence.

The report’s authors said what Australia and other countries did to reduce emissions over the next decade would be critical as it would determine what occurred in the second half of this century.

“When we sum up what’s happening, we’re not doing enough and we have to change the game to avoid a very consequential future,” Prof Ove Hoegh-Guldberg, a biologist and climate scientist at the University of Queensland, said.

The planet has already warmed by 1.1C since pre-industrial times and, based on current commitments by countries under the Paris agreement, is on track for an average 3C temperature rise.

The report considers how that would affect Australia’s ecosystems, food production, cities and towns, and health and wellbeing – and what Australia’s contribution must be to ensure global heating remains well below 2C, as promised under the 2015 global climate deal.

Prof Mark Howden, from the Australian National University Climate Change Institute, said Australians had already experienced increased heat and reductions in rainfall as a result of the climate crisis.

He said a 3C world could lead to “heat stress” temperatures being a daily occurrence in northern parts of Australia. Nationally, what was once considered a hot year would become a cool year.

He said this would pose significant challenges for food systems and human health but “there are adaptive measures we can put in place”, such as better warning systems for managing the health effects of heatwaves and floods, and designing clean and green hospitals “for the future and not the past”.

While its assessment of a 3C world is bleak, the report paints a much more positive picture of what governments can do now and over the next decade to keep global heating to within 2C.

The scientists write that Australia lags behind the best practice demonstrated by many other countries. Their 10 recommendations include a call for the Morrison government to accelerate the transition to net zero emissions “given how much Australia stands to lose if GHG [greenhouse gas] emissions are not reduced”.

They also recommend governments improve their understanding of climate impacts, including tipping points and the compounding effects of multiple stressors at global heating of 2C or more, so that Australia can develop effective adaptation responses.

The report calls for a systematic exploration of how Australia should prepare its food production and supply for a worsening climate crisis, and improved understanding of the risks of climate change to human health.

Prof Frank Jotzo, from ANU’s Crawford School of Public Policy, said achieving the goals of the Paris agreement would require accelerated investment in renewable energy, energy storage and electricity transmission.

He said reducing transport emissions, which account for about 19% of Australia’s current carbon pollution, was the next major and necessary step, and that an electric vehicle fleet would also present “a handy opportunity for decentralised electricity storage”.

“The costs of reducing global emissions are much less than the cost of adapting to the impacts of unrestrained global warming,” Jotzo said.

Prof Lesley Hughes, an ecologist and pro vice-chancellor at Macquarie University, said there were steps the Morrison government could take immediately to encourage the uptake of electric vehicles, rather than inhibit it.

“Delay is as dangerous as denial,” she said.

“The main message we would have for the federal government is that what we do, as well as the rest of the world, in the next decade ... that’s the critical thing.”

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(AU) Seriously Ugly: Here’s How Australia Will Look If The World Heats By 3°C This Century

The Conversation -   

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Authors
  • Professor Ove Hoegh-Guldberg is founder and inaugural Director of the Global Change Institute and Professor of Marine Science and Deputy Director of the Centre for Excellence in Coral Reef Studies, University of Queensland.
  • Professor Lesley Hughes is an ecologist in the Department of Biological Sciences at Macquarie University and an expert on the impacts of climate change on species and ecosystems.
Imagine, for a moment, a different kind of Australia. One where bushfires on the catastrophic scale of Black Summer happen almost every year.

One where 50℃ days in Sydney and Melbourne are common. Where storms and flooding have violently reshaped our coastlines, and unique ecosystems have been damaged beyond recognition – including the Great Barrier Reef, which no longer exists.

Frighteningly, this is not an imaginary future dystopia. It’s a scientific projection of Australia under 3℃ of global warming – a future we must both strenuously try to avoid, but also prepare for.

The sum of current commitments under the Paris climate accord puts Earth on track for 3℃ of warming this century. Research released today by the Australian Academy of Science explores this scenario in detail.

The report, which we co-authored with colleagues, lays out the potential damage to Australia’s ecosystems, food production, urban centres and human health. Unless the world changes course and dramatically curbs greenhouse gas emissions, this is how bad it could get.



A spotlight on the damage Nations signed up to the Paris Agreement collectively aim to limit global warming to well below 2℃ this century and to pursue efforts to limit temperature increase to 1.5℃. But on current emissions-reduction pledges, global temperatures are expected to far exceed these goals, reaching 2.9℃ by 2100.

Australia is the driest inhabited continent, and already has a highly variable climate of “droughts and flooding rains”. This is why of all developed nations, Australia has been identified as one of the most vulnerable to climate change.

The damage is already evident. Since records began in 1910, Australia’s average surface temperature has warmed by 1.4℃, and its open ocean areas have warmed by 1℃. Extreme events – such as storms, droughts, bushfires, heatwaves and floods – are becoming more frequent and severe.

Today’s report brings together multiple lines of evidence such as computer modelling, observed changes and historical paleoclimate studies. It gives a picture of the damage that’s already occurred, and what Australia should expect next. It shines a spotlight on four sectors: ecosystems, food production, cities and towns, and health and well-being.

In all these areas, we found the impacts of climate change are profound and accelerating rapidly.

Perth residents at an evacuation centre during a bushfire in February this year. Such events will become more frequent under climate change. Richard Wainwright/AAP

1. Ecosystems

Australia’s natural resources are directly linked to our well-being, culture and economic prosperity. Warming and changes in climate have already eroded the services ecosystems provide, and affected thousands of species.

The problems extend to the ocean, which is steadily warming. Heat stress is bleaching and killing corals, and severely damaging crucial habitats such as kelp forests and seagrass meadows. As oceans absorb carbon dioxide (CO₂) from the atmosphere, seawater is reaching record acidity levels, harming marine food webs, fisheries and aquaculture.

At 3℃ of global warming by 2100, oceans are projected to absorb five times more heat than the observed amount accumulated since 1970. Being far more acidic than today, ocean oxygen levels will decline at ever-shallower depths, affecting the distribution and abundance of marine life everywhere. At 1.5-2℃ warming, the complete loss of coral reefs is very likely.

Heat stress is killing corals and marine animal habitat. Shutterstock

Under 3℃ warming, global sea levels are projected to rise 40-80 centimetres, and by many more metres over coming centuries. Rising sea levels are already inundating low-lying coastal areas, and saltwater is intruding into freshwater wetlands. This leads to coastal erosion that amplifies storm impacts and affects both ecosystems and people.

Land and freshwater environments have been damaged by drought, fire, extreme heatwaves, invasive species and disease. An estimated 3 billion vertebrate animals were killed or displaced in the Black Summer bushfires. Some 24 million hectares burned, including 80% of the Blue Mountains World Heritage Area and 50% of Gondwana rainforests. At 3℃ of warming, the number of extreme fire days could double.

Some species are shifting to cooler latitudes or higher elevations. But most will struggle to keep up with the unprecedented rate of warming. Critical thresholds in many natural systems are likely to be exceeded as global warming reaches 1.5℃. At 2℃ and beyond, we’re likely to see the complete loss of coral reefs, and inundation of iconic ecosystems such as the World Heritage-listed Kakadu National Park.

At 3℃ of global warming, Australia’s present-day ecological systems would be unrecognisable. The first documented climate-related global extinction of a mammal, the Bramble Cay melomys from the Torres Strait, is highly unlikely to be the last. Climate change is predicted to increase extinction rates by several orders of magnitude.

Degradation of Australia’s unique ecosystems will harm the tourism and recreation industries, as well as our food security, health and culture.

There are ways to reduce the climate risk for ecosystems – many of which also benefit humans. For example, preserving and restoring mangroves protects our coasts from storms, increases carbon storage and retains fisheries habitat.

Climate change will accelerate species extinctions. Pictured: the critically endangered orange-bellied parrot. Shutterstock

2. Food production

Australian agriculture and food security already face significant risks from droughts, heatwaves, fires, floods and invasive species. At 2℃ or more of global warming, rainfall will decline and droughts in areas such as southeastern and southwestern Australia will intensify. This will reduce water availability for irrigated agriculture and increase water prices.

Heat stress affects livestock welfare, reproduction and production. Projected temperature and humidity changes suggest livestock will experience many more heat stress days each year. More frequent storms and heavy rainfall are likely to worsen erosion on grazing land and may lead to livestock loss from flooding.

Heat stress and reduced water availability will also make farms less profitable. A 3℃ global temperature increase would reduce yields of key crops by between 5% and 50%. Significant reductions are expected in oil seeds (35%), wheat (18%) and fruits and vegetables (14%).

Climate change also threatens forestry in hotter, drier regions such as southwestern Australia. There, the industry faces increased fire risks, changed rainfall patterns and growing pest populations. In cooler regions such as Tasmania and Gippsland, forestry production may increase as the climate warms. Existing plantations would change substantially under 3℃ warming.

As ocean waters warm, distributions and stock levels of commercial fish species are continuing to change. This will curb profitability. Many aquaculture fisheries may fundamentally change, relocate or cease to exist.

These changes may cause fisheries workers to suffer unemployment, mental health issues (potentially leading to suicides) and other problems. Strategic planning to create new business opportunities in these regions may reduce these risks.

Under climate change, drought will badly hurt farm profitability. Shutterstock

3. Cities and towns

 Almost 90% of Australians live in cities and towns and will experience climate change in urban environments.

Under a sea level rise of 1 metre by the end of the century – a level considered plausible by federal officials – between 160,000 and 250,000 Australian properties and infrastructure are at risk of coastal flooding.

Strategies to manage the risk include less construction in high-risk areas, and protecting coastal land with sea walls, sand dunes and mangroves. But some coastal areas may have to be abandoned.

Extreme heat, bushfires and storms put strain on power stations and infrastructure. At the same time, more energy is needed for increased air conditioning use. Much of Australia’s electricity generation relies on ageing and unreliable coal-fired power stations. Extreme weather can also disrupt and damage the oil and gas industries. Diversifying energy sources and improving infrastructure will be important to ensure reliable energy supplies.

The insurance and financial sector is becoming increasingly aware of climate risk and exposure. Insurance firms face increased claims due to climate-related disasters including floods, cyclones and mega-fires. Under some scenarios, one in every 19 property owners face unaffordable insurance premiums by 2030. A 3℃ world would render many more properties and businesses uninsurable.

Cities and towns, however, can be part of the climate solution. High-density urban living leads to a lower per capita greenhouse gas emission “footprint”. Also, innovative solutions are easier to implement in urban environments.

Passive cooling techniques, such as incorporating more plants and street trees during planning, can reduce city temperatures. But these strategies may require changes to stormwater management and can take time to work.

Extreme storms will continue to violently reshape our coastlines. David Moir/ AAP

4. Human health and well-being

 A 3℃ world threatens human health, livelihoods and communities. The elderly, young, unwell, and those from disadvantaged socioeconomic backgrounds are at most risk.

Heatwaves on land and sea are becoming longer, more frequent and severe. For example, at 3℃ of global warming, heatwaves in Queensland would happen as often as seven times a year, lasting 16 days on average. These cause physiological heat stress and worsen existing medical conditions.

Bushfire-related health impacts are increasing, causing deaths and exacerbating pre-existing conditions such as heart and lung disease. Tragically, we saw this unfold during Black Summer. These extreme conditions will increase at 2℃ and further at 3℃, causing direct and indirect physical and mental health issues.

Under 3℃ warming, climate damage to businesses will likely to lead to increased unemployment and possibly higher suicide rates, mental health issues and health issues relating to heat stress.

At 3°C global warming, many locations in Australia would be very difficult to inhabit due to projected water shortages.

As weather patterns change, transmission of some infectious diseases, such as Ross River virus, will become more intense. “Tropical” diseases may spread to more temperate areas across Australia.

Strategies exist to help mitigate these effects. They include improving early warning systems for extreme weather events and boosting the climate resilience of health services. Nature-based solutions, such as increasing green spaces in urban areas, will also help.

Air quality in Canberra was the worst in the world after the Black Summer fires. Lukas Coch/AAP

How to avoid catastrophe

The report acknowledges that limiting global temperatures to 1.5℃ this century is now extremely difficult. Achieving net-zero global emissions by 2050 is the absolute minimum required to to avoid the worst climate impacts.

Australia is well positioned to contribute to this global challenge. We have a well-developed industrial base, skilled workforce and vast sources of renewable energy.

But Australia must also pursue far more substantial emissions reduction. Under the Paris deal, we’ve pledged to reduce emissions by 26-28% between 2005 and 2030. Given the multiple and accelerating climate threats Australia faces, we must scale up this pledge. We must also display the international leadership and collaboration required to set Earth on a safer climate trajectory.

Our report recommends Australia immediately do the following:
  1. join global leaders in increasing actions to urgently tackle and solve climate change

  2. develop strategies to meet the challenges of extreme events that are increasing in intensity, frequency and scale

  3. improve our understanding of climate impacts, including tipping points and the compounding effects of multiple stressors at global warming of 2℃ or more

  4. systematically explore how food production and supply systems should prepare for climate change

  5. better understand the impacts and risks of climate change for the health of Australians

  6. introduce policies to deliver deep and rapid cuts in emissions across the economy

  7. scale up the development and implementation of low- to zero-emissions technologies

  8. review Australia’s capacity and flexibility to take up innovations and technology breakthroughs for transitioning to a low-emissions future

  9. develop a better understanding of climate solutions through dialogue with Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples – particularly strategies that helped people manage Australian ecosystems for tens of thousands of years

  10. continue to build adaptation strategies and greater commitment for meeting the challenges of change already in the climate system.
We don’t have much time to avert catastrophe. This decade must be transformational, and one where we choose a safer future.

The report upon which this article is based, The Risks to Australia of a 3°C Warmer World, was authored and reviewed by 21 experts.

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(AU) The risks to Australia of a 3°C warmer world

Australian Academy of Science

Scientists release landmark climate change report



The Australian Academy of Science is calling on the Australian Government to accelerate Australia’s transition to net zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions over the next 10 to 20 years to play our part in avoiding the worst impacts of climate change.

The key recommendation is included in a landmark Academy report published today.

The report, which explores the risks to Australia’s future based on the current global trajectory of greenhouse gas emissions, states that the world reaching net zero emissions by 2050 is an absolute minimum, if Australia is to avoid potentially insurmountable challenges to its cities, ecosystems, industries and food and health systems.

The report says Australia is well positioned to play its part in meeting this challenge, with a skilled workforce, strong industrial base and plentiful renewable energy resources facilitating easier emission reductions compared to many other countries.

It highlights that even if the world’s governments meet their current Paris pledges on time, Earth is likely to reach average global surface temperatures of 3oC above the pre-industrial period during this century, with catastrophic consequences.

Projected warming by 2100 under various scenarios from top to bottom (Climate Action Tracker 2020; Revill and Harris 2017): ‘Baseline’ models assume no action on reducing GHG emissions while ‘current polices’ are based on current commitments and policies made by the international community. ‘Optimistic polices’ include additional pledges that governments have made as of December 2019. ‘Pledges and Targets’ are conditional and have not yet been implemented. Pathways for ‘1.5°C’ and ‘2°C’ are scenarios based on models run for IPCC Special Report on 1.5°C (IPCC 2018). Temperatures of each scenario are shown as a range arising from different climate models. Figure: Australian Academy of Science. LARGE IMAGE

Further pledges to achieve net zero emissions by 2050 are required for the world to stay well below 2oC of warming, the goal agreed to under the Paris Agreement.

To achieve net zero, the report says Australia will need to rapidly remove greenhouse gas emissions from a range of sectors including electricity generation and distribution; electrify the transport sector, industry and buildings; increase energy efficiency across the board; and reduce non-energy related GHG emissions from all sectors including industrial processes and agriculture.

President of the Australian Academy of Science, Professor John Shine, welcomed the report.

“The Australian Academy of Science is proud to have played an active role in assessing the science of climate change since the 1970s. This new report makes clear that while the planet is well on the path to harmful climate change, as with COVID-19, science has solutions,” Professor Shine said.

“Australia is well positioned to meet the climate change challenge by combining our scientific knowledge with economic opportunities associated with moves to net zero greenhouse gas emissions.
Australia is well positioned to meet the climate change challenge by combining our scientific knowledge with economic opportunities associated with moves to net zero greenhouse gas emissions.
“We urge the Australian Government to implement the recommendations of this report. The Academy stands ready to assist by providing sound scientific advice on climate change to inform the Government’s multifaceted policy response.”

Academy Fellow Professor Ove Hoegh-Guldberg. Photo: supplied.
Academy Fellow Professor Ove Hoegh-Guldberg is the chair of the expert panel that developed the report.

He said limiting climate change to 1.5°C is now virtually impossible and that a rapid transition to net zero greenhouse gas emissions is required if the international community is to limit warming to well below 2°C.

“Current international commitments to greenhouse gas emission reduction, if unchanged, would result in average global surface temperatures that are 3°C above the pre-industrial period in the lifetimes of our children and grandchildren,” said Professor Hoegh-Guldberg, from the University of Queensland.

“The evidence presented in this risk-assessment report, which is based on peer-reviewed scientific literature, indicates that this would have serious consequences for Australia and the world.
The evidence presented in this risk-assessment report, which is based on peer-reviewed scientific literature, indicates that this would have serious consequences for Australia and the world.
“Australia must revisit its emission reduction commitments and work with other countries to provide the leadership and collaboration required to place Australia and the world on a safer climate trajectory.

“Australia has a stable business landscape. We have a great scientific tradition. We have enormous resources for the next wave of innovative technologies. We not only have a responsibility to be an international leader on climate action but need to grasp the enormous economic opportunities presented by the ‘new’ economy,” said Professor Hoegh-Guldberg.

The report says Australia can become a clean energy exporter and potentially a global renewable energy superpower. It highlights Australia’s relative advantage with its abundant natural resources for solar and other renewable energy generation, as well as significant deposits of new economy minerals critical for developing batteries and other low emission technologies.

The report focuses on the consequences of 3°C of global warming for four areas of importance to Australia’s future: ecosystems; food production; cities and towns; and health and wellbeing. It also focuses on Australia’s contribution to what must be done to stay well below 2°C and thus limit these impacts. 

The impacts of climatic changes on the lives and wellbeing of Australians are also discussed in detail in the report. Several examples across the four key areas are provided in the background information below.

Distinguished Professor Lesley Hughes. Photo: supplied.
The report makes a total of 10 recommendations (see page 13). They include to:
  • scale up the development and implementation of next-generation zero greenhouse gas technologies.
  • systematically explore how our food production and supply systems should prepare for the challenges of climate change under growing extremes including the implications for carbon sequestration.
  • improve our understanding of climate impacts, including tipping points, as well as the compounding effects of multiple stressors at global warming of 2°C or more so that we can develop effective adaptation responses.
Expert panel member Distinguished Professor Lesley Hughes, focusing on ecosystems, said most Australian species cannot evolve quickly enough to cope with the rapid increases in temperatures and associated increases in the frequency and severity of extreme weather events we now observe and feel.

“The unprecedented bushfire season in 2019–20 and the mass dying of corals on the Great Barrier Reef demonstrate how rapidly and fundamentally our global environment is changing with only 1.1°C of global warming,” said Professor Hughes, who is Pro Vice-Chancellor (Research) at Macquarie University.

“It’s not too late to avoid 3°C. We should still be aiming for a stable global temperature below 2°C but to get to that point, we must reduce emissions very rapidly—in particular accelerating the energy transition in the next decade. This must be one of the most urgent national and international priorities.”
"It’s not too late to avoid 3°C. We should still be aiming for a stable global temperature below 2°C but to get to that point, we must reduce emissions very rapidly—in particular accelerating the energy transition in the next decade. This must be one of the most urgent national and international priorities."
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