05/04/2021

(AU) Barrier Reef Doomed As Up To 99% Of Coral At Risk, Report Finds

Sydney Morning Herald - Nick O'Malley | Mike Foley

The Great Barrier Reef is all but doomed, with between 70 and 99 per cent of corals set for destruction unless immediate “transformative action” is taken to reverse global warming, according to a new report.

The Australian Academy of Science says the more ambitious target of the Paris Climate Agreement of keeping global warming to 1.5 degrees has now slipped out of reach and is “virtually impossible”.

Coral bleaching near Lizard Island on the Great Barrier Reef during 2016. Credit: EarthJustice, EJA

“Limiting the temperature rise to the lower Paris Agreement target is exceedingly difficult, and with only three or four more years of emissions at current levels remaining, the target has become virtually impossible to achieve,” says The Risks to Australia of a 3C Warmer World.

If 1.5 degrees of warming was sustained, the Great Barrier Reef would cease to exist as we know it, says one of the authors, Ove Hoegh-Guldberg, a biologist and climate scientist specialising in coral reefs.

What will happen to our cities (and beaches) at 3 degrees of warming?
At 1.5 degrees of warming, the reef would shrink by 70 to 90 per cent. At 2 degrees, just 1 per cent of the reef would survive.

If warming was stabilised, surviving corals suited to warmer temperatures may eventually return to cover the reef.

Should it continue unabated, corals would vanish entirely to be replaced by other organisms such as seaweeds and bacteria, said Professor Hoegh-Guldberg.

“It’s questionable that this would produce the $5 billion in income the reef now produces in tourism,” he said.

Another of the authors, Distinguished Professor Lesley Hughes of Macquarie University, said at current rates of emissions the world is likely to burn through its 1.5 degree “carbon budget” by 2025.

According to the report, the earth has already warmed by 1.1 degrees since the beginning of the industrial era.

However, warming does not impact on the world uniformly and, according to Professor Hughes, Australia is already experiencing 1.4 degrees warming.

“The observations that we are seeing of things like unprecedented bushfires and regular frequent bleaching of the Great Barrier Reef are consistent with the predictions that have been made previously about a 1.5-degree world,” she said.

“This is already a difficult world and really the main point of the academy report was to show that if you think this is difficult, then imagine double or triple the warming that we’ve had.”

Coral 'IVF' at Great Barrier Reef continues
In a world-first, researchers have successfully pioneered small-scale coral restoration using a technique dubbed Coral IVF.

In this scenario Black Summer fires would likely be an annual event and one in a 100-year floods would happen more commonly.

Professor Hoegh-Guldberg said it would be “disastrous” for politicians and policymakers to consider the report an excuse for giving up on reducing emissions.

Rather, he said it was further evidence that governments needed to shift from “gradualism to transformative action”.

This meant committing not only to net zero targets by 2050, but substantial annual cuts guided by a significant reductions target for 2030.

Professor Frank Jotzo, another contributor to the paper and director of the Australian National University’s Centre for Climate Economics and Policy, said he agreed 1.5 degrees was likely out of reach, but serious and immediate action could still see the world stabilise at between 1.5 and 2 degrees, which would make a huge difference to the quality of life on earth.

According to Professor Jotzo the unprecedented growth of wind and solar power over the past few years showed not only that the world has the technology to replace fossils with clean energy, but the energy produced will be cheaper than for traditional fossil sources such as oil and gas.

As a result we can afford to spend on storage technologies such as batteries and pumped hydro, he said.

At the Paris Climate Conference in 2016 Australia signed up to the agreement to keep global warming below 2 degrees and as close to 1.5 degrees as possible.

At the time Australia committed to reduce its emissions by 26-28 per cent based on 2005 levels by 2030.

The agreement included a so-called ratchet mechanism designed to encourage nations to raise their targets.

Over the past year the number of countries with targets of net zero by mid-century has leapt from about 25 per cent to 75 per cent.

Now, pressure is mounting on countries to make 2030 targets more ambitious. Professor Jotzo said he believes that the US, which is hosting a climate summit of 40 world leaders this month, will probably double its 2030 target by around 50 per cent, increasing pressure on Australia to significantly raise its target.

Make electric cars cheaper: Labor promises tax breaks for EVs, battery storage
A spokesman for Energy and Emissions Reductions Minister Angus Taylor said global warming was “a global problem requiring a global solution”.

“The only pathway for all countries to get to net zero is by getting low emissions technologies to commercial parity with existing alternatives,” the spokesman said.

“When developing countries are no longer forced to choose between growth and decarbonisation, then global emissions will fall.

“Australia has strong targets, an enviable track record, and a responsible plan to get the cost of low emissions technologies down.”

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(AU) Demand Soars For Carbon Offset Services As Australian Businesses Take Lead On Climate Change

ABC News - Claire Moodie

Sixty different species of native trees are being planted in the Yarra Yarra diversity corridor, north of Perth. (Supplied: Russell Ord)
Key Points
  • Demand for Australian carbon offset providers is growing
  • A 200km 'tree highway' will spread across the northern Wheatbelt
  • Pressure is growing for more action on climate change at the federal level
As pressure builds on the Australian Government to do more to tackle climate change, a growing number of businesses are taking the initiative, volunteering to curb their carbon footprint and offset their emissions.

They say it's not just to save the planet.

It's about protecting their viability in an increasingly climate-conscious international market.

Georgiana Rogers works for Carbon Neutral, a Perth-based carbon services provider, which is enjoying something of a purple patch.

Its client base has grown by 230 businesses and organisations, up 40 per cent, over the past year.

Carbon Neutral's Georgiana Rogers says businesses are taking the initiative to reduce carbon emissions. (Supplied: Russell Ord)
On behalf of its clients, the company has planted 30 million native trees and shrubs at a massive reforestation project in Western Australia's Wheatbelt, since 2008.

Carbon Neutral's ambition is to plant a 200-kilometre highway of trees across the northern Wheatbelt, north of Perth. (Supplied: Russell Ord)
"The science [on climate change] is now pretty much universally accepted," Ms Rogers said.
"Businesses are really picking this up.

''They're not waiting for the federal government in Australia – they are understanding and seeing the writing on the wall."

A total of 14,000 hectares of trees have been planted in WA's northern Wheatbelt so far as part of the Yarra Yarra project. (Supplied: Russell Ord)
The company's Yarra Yarra project is restoring degraded and saline farmland to ultimately create a 200km-long biodiversity corridor.

Shareholder pressure prompts climate action

Ms Rogers said there had been a lull in interest during what she called the "barren years", with divisive debate in Australia on climate change creating uncertainty.

However, she said the tide was turning fast, with pressure on businesses to reduce their carbon footprint coming from shareholders, among others.

"If businesses are wanting to get investment from capital funds, they are increasingly being asked what are they doing about the climate," she said.

Rhys Arangio from Austral Fisheries says the company plants about 200,000 trees a year to offset its carbon emissions. (Supplied: Russell Ord)
One of the company's clients is Austral Fisheries, which operates in the Northern Prawn Fishery in Australia's north and fishes for Patagonian Toothfish and Mackerel Icefish in the Southern Ocean.

Austral became the first fishing business in the world to be certified as carbon neutral in 2016.

Since then, it has been voluntarily spending about $500,000 a year on planting trees at the Yarra Yarra project to offset its emissions, mainly from the roughly nine million litres of diesel it burns across its fleet of boats.

The catalyst to act was the impact climate change was already having on its operations, according to senior manager of environment and policy Rhys Arangio.

"In the Gulf of Carpentaria across the top of Australia, there was massive mangrove dieback in 2016," Mr Arangio said.

"And then in the Southern Ocean in that same year, there was a marine heatwave … that really cut our catch rates in half for that twelve months."

Austral Fisheries CEO David Carter has become a strong advocate for businesses taking climate action. (Supplied)
The company's CEO David Carter said the decision also came from an awareness that business could make a difference, where politics had failed.
"Put simply, we said: 'If we've made the mess, we clean it up'," Mr Carter said.
"And in our case, that's about 200,000 trees a year."

The company is also trying to curb its emissions and has recently added a hybrid electric vessel to its fleet.

Austral Fisheries spent about $50 million dollars on its first hybrid electric fishing vessel Cape Arkona. (Supplied: Austral Fisheries)
Mr Carter said many in business had traditionally held the view that climate was the province of greenies and activists.

But increasingly, it was about "risk and money".

"At a big end of town level, there's the TCFD, which is the Taskforce on Climate -related Financial Disclosures and that reveals to the market how strategically they are planning to deal with their emissions exposure," he said.

"If you are not doing the right thing in this space, you are going to find access to capital increasingly difficult and access to talent and graduates increasingly difficult."

Mr Carter pointed to mining magnate Andrew Forrest's recent pledge to become a major producer and exporter of green hydrogen and steel as a sign of how quickly the dynamics were changing.

"The sort of increased stridency of the Andrew Forrest messaging is being reflected in many boardrooms around the country and around the world," he said.

Small businesses getting on board

At the other end of the spectrum, small businesses are also signing up in a less formal way to offset their emissions.

Marion O'Leary runs an organic skin care business from a studio in her backyard in the West Australian port city of Fremantle.

She buys a tree for every customer who spends over a certain amount to try to offset her company's emissions, which mainly come from the importation of ingredients.

Mokosh owner Marion O'Leary buys native trees to sequester carbon and offset her company's emissions. (ABC News: Claire Moodie)
She's chosen to invest mainly in the Yarra Yarra biodiversity project.

"Since we started in 2019, we have bought 2,760 trees so we are pretty proud of that," she said.
"It's very tangible for the customer that they are seeing a tree for each purchase."
Ms O'Leary said she had become disheartened over what she perceives to be a lack of progress on climate change in Australia.

Although she believes her business is carbon neutral, she has decided against signing up for the significant cost involved in going through the Federal Government's formal system to become certified.

This organic skincare company in Fremantle plants trees for its customers to offset its carbon emissions. (ABC News: Claire Moodie)
"I think it's something we could do down the track but it's quite a big thing to take on for a small business," she said.

"Buying trees is a way to offset our emissions and also make our customers feel that by buying some of our product, they are also offsetting some of their own emissions too."

Few signed up to federal scheme

In total, 180 businesses are currently certified under the Federal Government's scheme "Climate Active", with 260 certifications for products and services between them.

This is up from 86 businesses and 128 certifications in November 2019.

Only Australia's biggest 200-odd polluters are currently regulated and the Federal Government sets a maximum amount of emissions they can produce.

However, there are a number of options available to companies before they are penalised for exceeding those levels, including asking for their maximum emissions levels to be raised or even seeking an exemption.

In other parts of the world, pressure is mounting to commit to stricter emissions targets.

President-elect Joe Biden has re-committed the US to the Paris Climate pact and has called a leader's summit for later this month.

The European Parliament has also endorsed a plan, which could see Australian exporters slapped with new carbon tariffs.

Growing demand for tree planting

Louise Tarrier has "the best job in the world" working for Carbon Positive, a Perth-based charity that plants trees in Western Australia and New South Wales and helps businesses and individuals measure, curb and offset their emissions.

The group has planted about six million trees in its 20-year history and, like Carbon Neutral, is finding that its services are in growing demand.

Louise Tarrier of the charity, Carbon Positive, says many small business operators say they want to offset their carbon emissions for their children. (ABC News: Claire Moodie)

"People are starting to wake up to the idea that they might want to sequester their carbon and reduce their carbon emissions," she said while walking through a community plantation of native trees in Guildford, in Perth's outskirts.

"I have certainly noticed a big difference this last year.

"Whether it's due to more social media, people like Greta Thunberg, for example, or just a growing awareness of the climate changes we're experiencing in our day-to-day lives."

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Antarctic Glacier Will Reach Tipping Point

European Scientist - 
Pine Island Glacier in West Antarctica will reach a tipping point, leading to an irreversible and quick retreat with massive consequences for global sea level, according to a study published in the leading journal in this field, The Cryosphere.

Pine Island Glacier is a large fast-flowing ice stream draining an area of West Antarctica about two thirds the size of the UK. At the moment, it is the fastest melting glacier in Antarctica and accounts for a quarter of all ice lost in the region.

Satellite measurements have shown that Pine Island Glacier Basin contributes more water to the sea than any other basin in the world, and this is getting worse due to the recent acceleration of the ice stream.

It’s been the subject of debate for years whether this area of Antarctica could ever reach a tipping point in terms of ice melting and go over an irreversible point from which it would be impossible to recover.

Worryingly, if this were to happen, it could result in the collapse of the entire West Antarctic Ice sheet. This event alone could result in a rise of over three meters in the global sea level.

Now, researchers from Northumbria University, UK, have actually shown that this could be a harsh and brutal reality. Using an ice flow computer model created by the glaciology group, the researchers were able to predict and identify tipping points within the ice sheets.

“The potential for this region to cross a tipping point has been raised in the past, but our study is the first to confirm that Pine Island Glacier does indeed cross these critical thresholds”, said lead author Dr Sebastian Rosier, from Northumbria’s Department of Geography and Environmental Sciences.

“Many different computer simulations around the world are attempting to quantify how a changing climate could affect the West Antarctic Ice Sheet but identifying whether a period of retreat in these models is a tipping point is challenging.

Using this model, the team identified three distinct tipping points. The first and second are relatively small, but they still could lead to a considerable sea-level rise and would be difficult to recover. The third, however, would lead to a complete collapse of the Pine Island Glacier, potentially causing an increase of 1.2C in the water temperature.

For the researchers, changing wind patterns in the Amundsen Sea combined with long-term warming in the Circumpolar Deep Water could be enough to expose Pine Island Glacier to warmer water for long periods of time, making temperatures changes virtually inevitable.

“The possibility of Pine Island Glacier entering an unstable retreat has been raised before, but this is the first time that this possibility is rigorously established and quantified”, said Prof Hillary Gudmundsson, Professor of Glaciology and Extreme Environments.

The researcher is thrilled that this has finally been proven, but the findings are alarming. “Should the glacier enter unstable irreversible retreat, the impact on sea level could be measured in metres, and as this study shows, once the retreat starts, it might be impossible to halt it.”

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