Lethal Heating: 04/09/21

09/04/2021

(UK) Carbon Dioxide Levels In Atmosphere Reach Record High

The Guardian - PA Media

Concentrations are 50% above pre-industrial levels despite dip in emissions during Covid pandemic

Smoke rises from a factory as a truck loaded with cars crosses a bridge in Paris. Photograph: Michel Euler/AP

Concentrations of climate-warming carbon dioxide in the atmosphere have hit record highs, despite a dip in emissions during the Covid pandemic, scientists have said.

The latest measurements from the long-running recording station at Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii, show global levels of carbon dioxide are 50% above what they were when the Industrial Revolution began in Britain.

The data released by the Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California San Diego, shows atmospheric concentrations of the greenhouse gas in March averaged 417.14 parts per million (ppm), a new record high.

The UK’s Met Office predicts monthly concentrations of carbon dioxide, the main driver of rising temperatures and the climate crisis, will peak in 2021 at about 419.5 ppm.

The previous record for monthly carbon dioxide concentrations at Mauna Loa in the Scripps dataset was 417.10ppm in May 2020.

Last year’s annual average figure was 413.94ppm – with 2021’s level forecast to be about 416.3ppm.

Carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere fluctuate slightly during the year, dropping as some is absorbed during the spring and summer by plants growing in the northern hemisphere, before it rises again in autumn and winter.

But the long-term trend in rising concentrations of carbon dioxide is caused by human activity, mainly through the burning of fossil fuels and also from deforestation, the Met Office said.

Global emissions reduced temporarily in 2020 as a result of a drop in transport use and economic activity as the coronavirus pandemic struck.

But the emissions reduction in 2020 was not enough to substantially affect the buildup of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, which continues to rise.

Much larger, longer-term reductions in emissions will be required to slow or stop the rise, the Met Office warned.

Projections from the UN’s climate science body, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change warns that to halt global warming at 1.5C – beyond which the worst impacts of rising temperatures are expected – global emissions will need to reach net zero by around 2050, or sooner.

Reaching net zero involves cutting emissions to as near to zero as possible and taking steps such as planting trees to absorb any remaining pollution.

Commenting on the latest data, Prof Martin Siegert, of the Grantham Institute, Imperial College London, said the new record high was completely expected.

“Emissions may have been reduced but we are still emitting lots of carbon dioxide, and so its atmospheric concentration is bound to go up – and will continue to do so until we get to somewhere near net-zero emissions.

“Our path to net zero is obvious, challenging and necessary – and we must get on with the transition urgently,” he said.

Prof Simon Lewis, from University College London, said: “It is easy to forget just how much and just how fast fossil fuel emissions are affecting our planet.

“It took over 200 years to increase the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere by 25%, and just 30 years to reach 50% above pre-industrial levels. This dramatic change is like a human meteorite hitting Earth.”

But he added: “If countries make plans now to put society on a path of sustained and dramatic cuts to emissions from today, we can avoid ever-rising emissions and the dangerously accelerating impacts of climate change.”

Links

(NZ) Managing Retreat: Why New Zealand Is Drafting A New Law To Enable Communities To Move Away From Climate Risks

The Conversation - Catherine Iorns

Shutterstock/Pro Aerial Master

Author

Catherine Iorns is Professor of Law, Te Herenga Waka — Victoria University of Wellington

The government’s recently announced overhaul of major environmental legislation will result in a new law focused solely on climate change adaptation.

The 30-year-old Resource Management Act (RMA) was groundbreaking when it was passed in 1991 — the first in the world to be based on the concept of sustainable management. But it has been subject to many criticisms, and amendments, from all angles.

On one hand, it hasn’t protected the environment enough, allowing the degradation of waterways and loss of indigenous biodiversity. On the other hand, its procedures are slow and cumbersome, making development difficult. It has also been partly blamed for the current housing shortage in New Zealand.

The Power Of Water Episode 3 - Rights and Responsibilities from Newsroom on Vimeo.

In this documentary, directed by Magnolia Lowe, the author covers legal issues around water, from climate change to pollution. An extensive independent review of the legislation recommended replacing the RMA with three separate pieces of new legislation, with one focused on climate adaptation.

Perhaps most significantly, the review recommended a new government fund to pay for managed retreat, to better ensure change happens fairly and consistently across the whole of Aotearoa New Zealand.

Sued if you do and sued if you don’t

Current laws in both Australia and New Zealand are hindering adaptation to the effects of climate change.

The Australian Productivity Commission found as far back as 2012 that the law was a barrier to effective climate change adaptation. Significantly, local governments are responsible for adaptation measures, but their precise abilities and responsibilities are not clear enough.

Therefore, they face a “liability dilemma” where they are sued if they take action and sued if they don’t. The fear of being sued has stopped them from taking action and, for some local councils, concern about liability has been described as the single most important issue to resolve.

Research in New Zealand has found the same thing: New Zealand’s local authorities have been sued when they take action to adapt to climate change, and sued when they haven’t acted boldly enough. Fear of liability has also prevented New Zealand’s local government from taking measures they know are necessary.

Coastal hazard adaptation guidelines issued by the Ministry for the Environment have helped but are not enough.

The devolution of climate change measures to local government has inhibited national strategic land use planning. Shutterstock/Krug

Barriers and gaps to effective adaptation

It isn’t just fear of liability, there are many legal barriers that leave local authorities unsure of what they can or cannot do. In some cases, they are legally prevented from doing what they need to do.

In 2019, an extensive New Zealand study identified numerous barriers and gaps in the law and recommended many changes to the relevant legislation, mostly the RMA.

The RMA includes several barriers to adaptation generally as well as managed retreat in particular. For example, it is not always clear who is responsible for taking particular climate adaptation measures — whether that involves building hard seawalls, imposing conditions on building permits to ensure future resilience, or simply revising where housing and other structures may be built in the face of increasing risks from sea level rise.

Even where the responsibility is clear, the extent of the powers may be unclear, or the most appropriate measure may not be defined or leave too much flexibility about what needs to be done.

There are also strong barriers to adaptation measures that involve interference with existing, permitted land uses. In some cases it does not appear possible to force landowners to move to retreat from the coast in the face of rising sea levels. If they do move, it’s unclear if they are entitled to compensation, and if so, who should pay.

Other research focused solely on managing existing uses (particularly retreat) has also found the law needs to change if we are to enable government to take the measures necessary for communities to adapt to climate change.

The law also needs to change if we are to do this fairly and with dignity, and without transferring the risks and burdens to the most vulnerable.

Law reform

The RMA is a huge statute of 836 pages. It governs most uses of land, natural resources and the coastal marine area in New Zealand. It provides for national policies and standards, as well as regional and local ones.

But the devolution to local government has inhibited national strategic planning for land uses. For example, cities have sacrificed the best food-producing land for housing on urban fringes. Importantly, the RMA has not provided for the growing risks of climate change.

The RMA reform panel made several recommendations to fix barriers to climate adaptation, including:

Mandatory national direction on climate adaptation measures
spatial plans including provision for adaptation
funding to enable managed retreat
flexible planning regimes
and the power to modify existing land uses and permits.

There is not enough detail yet to assess how this will be achieved. The Ministry for the Environment is currently figuring out precisely how these new statutes should be drafted.

But this could be another world first: laws to provide for climate adaptation, including a fund to enable communities to manage their retreat from climate risks. New Zealand is small and it often experiments with new ideas and initiatives.

This may well be one Australia should be watching.

Links

(AU) Australia Will Face Its Moment Of Carbon Truth In 2021

AFR - Robyn Eckersley

Even this country’s closest friends are going leave us exposed as a laggard ahead of the crunch COP meeting in Glasgow.

Australia, unlike its leading allies, has been reluctant to step up the pace of decarbonisation. Peter Rae

Author

Robyn Eckersley is Redmond Barry distinguished professor of political science at the University of Melbourne

This is the year of reckoning for the Paris Agreement, the future of the world’s climate and especially for Australia.

The Paris Agreement is built around a ratcheting-up mechanism. Parties to the agreement submitted pledges – known as “nationally determined contributions” (NDCs) – in 2015. These pledges must be enhanced every five years.

In 2020, parties with 2025 targets were to submit new 2030 targets and policies, while those with 2030 targets – all parties other than the US – are required to update or enhance their 2030 targets.

However, many parties missed the 2020 deadline due to the pandemic. Instead, this year we will see which countries have stepped up their ambition, and which have shirked their responsibilities.

Australia is an internationally renowned climate laggard, routinely appearing close to the very bottom of the annual Climate Change Performance Index. This year, Australia will be under diplomatic pressure on multiple fronts to do more, but especially from its closest allies, the US, and Britain as the host of the 26th annual climate conference (COP26) in Glasgow in November.

The Biden administration has rejoined the Paris Agreement and embarked on a major climate diplomatic offensive in the lead-up to Glasgow. Joe Biden’s comprehensive executive order on tackling the climate crisis at home and abroad, issued on January 27, makes it clear that he intends to outdo Barack Obama as a climate leader.

Domestically, Biden has committed to a US$2 trillion ($2.6 trillion) investment plan to revitalise US infrastructure and industry, much of which is devoted to an energy transition and green manufacturing and jobs. This includes reaching a target of 100 per cent carbon-free electricity by 2035, promoting electric vehicles (including a zero-emissions bus fleet by 2030), and ending fossil fuel subsidies.

It’s going to take a lot more than money to repair Australia’s tattered international reputation on climate change.

Biden has also appointed John Kerry as his special climate envoy. Kerry played a key role in ensuring US-China co-operation in the run-up to the Paris Agreement in 2015, and has likened failure to address climate change to a “mutual suicide pact”.

Kerry is working closely with Alok Sharma, the British president of COP26, to find ways of closing the “emissions gap” between what is pledged under existing NDCs and what is needed to keep global warming below 2 degrees.

Scientists warn that global emissions need to halve by 2030 to ensure a reasonable chance of holding global warming to 1.5 degrees. This means that rich countries should be cutting their emissions by substantially more than 50 per cent, given their obligation to lead under the burden-sharing principles of the regime.

There is also a large “climate finance gap”. Developed countries have failed to mobilise the US$100 billion required annually by 2020. Talks will aim to set a new and higher goal by 2025. Adequate climate finance is a condition precedent for poorer countries to pursue both mitigation and adaptation.

The next milestone on the road to Glasgow is Biden’s climate summit for major economies, scheduled for Earth Day on April 22. This is also the crucial moment when the US is expected to announce its 2030 NDC.

The US’s 2015 NDC was to reduce emissions by 26 to 28 per cent by 2025 from 2005 levels. Australia’s NDC copied the US target and baseline, but with a deadline of 2030. Australia’s official Climate Change Authority (since defunded and largely ignored) had recommended a 2025 target of at least 30 per cent reduction, and a 2030 target in the range of 40 to 60 per cent.

Emissions reduction ambitions

Laurence Tubiana, who served as France’s climate ambassador at the Paris negotiations and is now head of the European Climate Foundation, has argued that the US must commit to a cut of at least 50 per cent by 2030. Boris Johnson has scaled up Britain’s commitment to 68 per cent by 2030 from 1990 levels. Norway, a major gas and oil exporter, has updated its 2030 target to at least 50 per cent, while Germany’s is 55 per cent.

A report by the Australian Climate Targets Panel, an independent group of senior climate scientists and policymakers, has recommended Australia’s 2030 target should be updated to minus 50 per cent.

Australia will be under huge pressure to do more than minus 26 to 28 per cent, especially if the US goes to minus 50 per cent or beyond. The problem for Biden is that Australia already formally reported its “updated” 2030 NDC on the last day of 2020, during the summer holiday season when no one was paying attention.

This “update” simply restated the existing target of 26to 28 per cent by emphasising that it is a minimum that Australia will “meet and beat”.

The only new policy on display is Angus Taylor’s technology road map, which has been widely condemned for including gas. The government has no new national renewable energy target or credible decarbonisation strategy and has merely expressed a desire to reach net zero emissions “preferably” by 2050.

Whether Biden and Kerry, or Johnson and Sharma, can persuade the Morrison government to lift its game is an open question.

One important area of leverage for the US is climate finance. Here Australia will be under the spotlight for cancelling its future contributions to the Green Climate Fund, the primary mechanism under the climate regime to assist developing countries with mitigation and adaptation.

Resuming contributions to the Green Climate Fund might provide one avenue for possible redemption for the Morrison government at Biden’s summit, but it’s going to take a lot more than money to repair Australia’s tattered international reputation on climate change.

Links