The Conversation
- Michelle Grattan
We shouldn’t be surprised at the Kevin Rudd-Malcolm Turnbull bromance.
After all, we saw the same with Malcolm Fraser and Gough Whitlam.
The stronger the earlier political antipathy, it seems, the closer the
later collaboration. Rudd’s fury over Turnbull’s refusal to back him for
United Nations secretary-general might never have existed.
With Whitlam and Fraser, the republican cause and media issues were
unifiers.
With Rudd and Turnbull, a mutual commitment to action on climate change
and a passionate hatred of the Murdoch media provide the glue.
Each of them, in his ascendancy, regarded the Murdoch empire more benignly
than now. But they’ve both been consistent on climate change, an issue
central in Turnbull losing his leadership twice, and important in Rudd’s
2010 ousting from the prime ministership.
This week, ahead of US President Joe Biden’s (virtual) climate summit, the
duo
co-authored an article in The Guardian, in which they argued: “The main thing holding back Australia’s climate
ambition is politics: a toxic coalition of the Murdoch press, the right
wing of the Liberal and National parties, and vested interests in the
fossil fuel sector.”
Despite community concern about the issue, until recently the government,
post Turnbull, judged it could slough off criticisms of Australia’s
inadequate climate policy. After all, wasn’t Labor the side with the
problem?
Now that’s changed. There are multiple reasons but most immediately the
election of Biden, who has put climate change at the heart of his
international agenda, has left Australia without a fig leaf and with
nowhere to hide.
It has to account for itself at high-profile international occasions.
After the Biden summit comes the June G7 meeting in the United Kingdom, to
which Australia has been invited. Then there’s the November United Nations
climate change conference in Glasgow.
Scott Morrison understands he must pivot the government’s climate policy –
specifically, that sometime this year he needs to formally embrace the
widely accepted target of net-zero emissions by 2050. In his Thursday
night speech to the summit he said Australia would update its strategy for
Glasgow.
He knows market forces are driving much of the pace on climate policy.
Climate risk is increasingly significant in investment decisions.
And, in trading terms, other countries could disadvantage Australia for
being a laggard. The European Union is preparing a plan for a price on the
carbon content of imported goods. This is due to be tabled this year and,
after consultations, imposed in 2023.
As he manoeuvres on climate policy, Morrison is rather like the boy on the
skateboard trying to navigate an awkward change of direction.
He insists the government’s approach will be based on “technology not
taxes”. By stressing advances in technology, he’s preparing the way to
sign up later to the 2050 target.
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German Chancellor Angela Merkel takes part in the virtual
international climate summit with US President Joe Biden and
other world leaders. Picture: Getty Images
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Ahead of the Biden summit, the government announced more than $1 billion
in funding (spread over a decade) to support the development of
technology. Morrison’s rhetoric casts Australia as an international leader
on that front.
According to his current mantra, “‘when’ is not the question [in climate
policy] anymore. ‘How’ is the question.”
But climate leaders are very much focused on the “when”. With Britain and
the United States upping their medium-term ambitions, the debate is about
toughening 2030 targets, and the paucity of Australia’s position is
further exposed.
As Morrison inches towards the 2050 commitment, international attention is
shifting to what should be done 20 years before that. But Morrison had no
revised medium-term Australian target to put on Biden’s summit table.
If Morrison had been dealing with this challenge in late 2019, after his
unexpected election triumph, it would be a whole lot easier. He’d have had
maximum authority to make shifts of policy.
But the PM’s authority, while still substantial, has been eroded,
especially by the setbacks in the vaccine roll-out. Within his own ranks,
there’s more criticism, and it’s no longer assumed he couldn’t lose next
year’s election.
The government’s parliamentary numbers are on a knife edge after the exit
of Craig Kelly to sit as an independent.
Morrison is acutely aware he has to keep his ranks solid – hence his
failure to demand Queensland Liberal Andrew Laming be forced to the
crossbench.
Resistance to a meaningful shift in climate policy is strongest among the
rebels in the Nationals, including the outspoken Queensland senator Matt
Canavan, a big spruiker for coal. These are the people who’d seize any
excuse to move on Nationals leader and Deputy Prime Minister Michael
McCormack. The last thing Morrison wants is a destabilising stoush within
the Coalition’s minor partner.
The dilemma faced by Australia – and Morrison – was bluntly called out in
a pre-summit briefing given by Biden administration officials.
Asked where Australia’s policy was, and what the US expected in increased
ambition, one briefer pointed to the “very difficult political
conversation” in Australia about “how much ambition is there”.
“I think that our colleagues in Australia recognise that there’s going to
have to be a shift,” the official said. “It’s insufficient to follow the
existing trajectory and hope that they will be on a course to deep
decarbonisation and getting to net-zero emissions by mid-century.
"I think the differences are very largely about what the trajectory is and
how do you get on it. One view of the world says, ‘Don’t worry, technology
will solve the problem.’ The other view of the world says, ‘At the end of
the day, technology will contribute but is insufficient on its own to
solve the problem, and you have to have a set of policies, you have to
have national intent, you have to follow up with actions and commitments.’
"I think that there’s movement. […] We are hopeful [Morrison] will come to
the summit and make announcements around both and commit the country to
next steps that we think would be critical.”
With the message that technology is not enough to deal with the climate
challenge, the US official pricked the balloon into which Morrison had
been assiduously blowing as much air as he could.
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