Lethal Heating: 04/29/21

29/04/2021

(Forbes) How Renewables Could Kill Off Fossil Fuel Electricity By 2035: New Report

Forbes - David Vetter

The 250-metre-high chimney of the former Steag power plant in Lünen, Germany, collapses. The plummeting costs of renewable energy could squeeze fossil fuels out of electricity generation entirely by 2035, a new report shows. dpa/picture alliance via Getty Images

Solar and wind energy have the potential to meet global electricity demand 100 times over, and the costs of these renewables are collapsing so rapidly that fossil fuels could be pushed out of electricity generation altogether by 2035, according to a report by a U.K. think tank.

The report, from London-based non-profit Carbon Tracker, reveals that solar and wind have the potential to produce thousands of petawatt hours (PWh) of electricity a year, while the world’s current electricity demand stands at just 27 PWh.

Furthermore, Carbon Tracker shows, if humans chose to get all their energy from solar power alone, the land required would take up just 450,000 km2—just 0.3% of the world’s total land area, and less than the space currently taken up by fossil fuel industry operations.

That option should not be necessary, as wind farms and other renewables are also producing an increasingly larger share of global energy capacity.

As Stanford University professor Mark Jacobson shows in his book 100% Clean, Renewable Energy and Storage for Everything, global energy demand could be met by using 0.2% of available land area for solar, and 0.5% for spacing between onshore wind turbines.

Carbon Tracker uses the findings to claim that “the fossil fuel era is over.” At current growth rates, it says, solar and wind power could price fossil fuels out of the world’s electricity markets by the mid-2030s, and by 2050 could replace fossil fuels entirely.

“We are entering a new epoch, comparable to the industrial revolution,” said Kingsmill Bond, Carbon Tracker’s lead strategist and the report’s author.

“Energy will tumble in price and become available to millions more, particularly in low-income countries. Geopolitics will be transformed as nations are freed from expensive imports of coal, oil and gas. Clean renewables will fight catastrophic climate change and free the planet from deadly pollution.”

The findings should not come as a complete surprise. Last year, the International Energy Agency found that solar power was now the cheapest electricity “in history,” in most major countries.

The International Renewable Energy Agency says the cost of electricity from solar photovoltaics fell 82% in the last decade, while the costs of onshore and offshore wind fell 39% and 29% respectively.

Yet right now, people are using only a fraction of the renewable energy available to them. The report notes that only 0.01% of the world’s solar potential is being utilized, and just 0.16% of wind potential is being exploited.

While many parts of the world have access to abundant solar and wind energy, in some regions these resources are super-abundant: nations in Sub-Saharan Africa, such as Namibia, Botswana and Ethiopia, have solar potential 1,000 times greater than their electricity usage.

Indeed, Africa, Australia and South America have “huge technical potential compared to energy demand,” the report states.

The report helps bolster the case for the world’s energy decarbonization plans, including President Joe Biden’s plan to make U.S. electricity production carbon free by 2035.

Harry Benham, co-author of the report and chairman of the climate think-tank Ember, said: “The world does not need to exploit its entire renewable resource—just 1% is enough to replace all fossil fuel usage. Each year we are fuelling the climate crisis by burning three million years of fossilised sunshine in coal, oil and gas while we use just 0.01% of daily sunshine.”

The findings are also a reminder that as the economic potential of renewables grows, fossil fuel investments are becoming an increasingly risky prospect: last month, Carbon Tracker published a note showing that $640 billion in investments in fossil fuel firms had lost $123bn of their value between 2012 and 2020.

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(SciTechDaily) Experts Say Humanity Faces A Grim And “Ghastly Future” – State Of Planet Is Much Worse Than Most People Understand

SciTechDaily - Flinders University

The global population could reach 10 billion by 2050; explosive population growth is contributing to a broad array of other challenges for the planet.

The state of the planet is much worse than most people understand and that humans face a grim and “ghastly future” unless extraordinary action is taken soon.

A loss of biodiversity and accelerating climate change in the coming decades coupled with ignorance and inaction is threatening the survival of all species, including our very own, according to the experts from institutions including Stanford University, UCLA, and Flinders University.

The researchers state that world leaders need a ‘cold shower’ regarding the state of our environment, both to plan and act to avoid a ghastly future.

Lead author Professor Corey Bradshaw of Flinders University in Australia says he and his colleagues have summarised the state of the natural world in stark form to help clarify the gravity of the human predicament.

“Humanity is causing a rapid loss of biodiversity and, with it, Earth’s ability to support complex life. But the mainstream is having difficulty grasping the magnitude of this loss, despite the steady erosion of the fabric of human civilization,” Professor Bradshaw says.

“In fact, the scale of the threats to the biosphere and all its lifeforms is so great that it is difficult to grasp for even well-informed experts.

“The problem is compounded by ignorance and short-term self-interest, with the pursuit of wealth and political interests stymying the action that is crucial for survival,” he says.

Flinders University Professor Corey Bradshaw summarizes the perspective paper “Underestimating the challenges of avoiding a ghastly future.” Credit: Flinders University

Professor Paul Ehrlich of Stanford University says that no political or economic system, or leadership, is prepared to handle the predicted disasters, or even capable of such action.

“Stopping biodiversity loss is nowhere close to the top of any country’s priorities, trailing far behind other concerns such as employment, healthcare, economic growth, or currency stability.

“While it is positive news that President Biden reengaged the US in Paris Climate accord within his first 100 days of office, it is a minuscule gesture given the scale of the challenge.

“Humanity is running an ecological Ponzi scheme in which society robs nature and future generations to pay for short-term economic enhancement today.”

“Most economies operate on the basis that counteraction now is too costly to be politically palatable. Combined with disinformation campaigns to protect short-term profits it is doubtful that the scale of changes we need will be made in time,” Professor Ehrlich says.

Summary of major environmental-change categories expressed as percentages relative to the baseline given in the text. Red indicates the percentage of the category that is damaged, lost, or otherwise affected, whereas blue indicates the percentage that is intact, remaining, or otherwise unaffected. Credit: Bradshaw et al. LARGE IMAGE

Professor Dan Blumstein from UCLA says the scientists are choosing to speak boldly and fearlessly because life literally depends on it.

“What we are saying might not be popular, and indeed is frightening. But we need to be candid, accurate, and honest if humanity is to understand the enormity of the challenges we face in creating a sustainable future.

“Without political will backed by tangible action that scales to the enormity of the problems facing us, the added stresses to human health, wealth, and well-being will perversely diminish our political capacity to mitigate the erosion of the Earth’s life-support system upon which we all depend.

“Human population growth and consumption continues to escalate, and we’re still more focused on expanding human enterprise than we are on devising and implementing solutions to critical issues such as biodiversity loss. By the time we fully comprehend the impact of ecological deterioration, it will be too late.

“Without fully appreciating and broadcasting the scale of the problems and the enormity of the solutions required, society will fail to achieve even modest sustainability goals, and catastrophe will surely follow,” Professor Blumstein concludes.

Flinders University Professor Corey Bradshaw describes how humanity is running an ecological Ponzi scheme in which society robs nature and future generations to pay for short-term economic gain today. Credit: Flinders University

The experts say their ‘perspective’ paper, which cites more than 150 studies, seeks to outline clearly and unambiguously the likely future trends in biodiversity decline, mass extinction, climate disruption, planetary toxification, all tied to human consumption and population growth to demonstrate the near certainty that these problems will worsen over the coming decades, with negative impacts for centuries to come.

It also explains the impact of political impotence and the ineffectiveness of current and planned actions to address the ominous scale of environmental erosion.

Reference: “Underestimating the Challenges of Avoiding a Ghastly Future” by Corey J. A. Bradshaw, Paul R. Ehrlich, Andrew Beattie, Gerardo Ceballos, Eileen Crist, Joan Diamond, Rodolfo Dirzo, Anne H. Ehrlich, John Harte, Mary Ellen Harte, Graham Pyke, Peter H. Raven, William J. Ripple, Frédérik Saltré, Christine Turnbull, Mathis Wackernagel and Daniel T. Blumstein, 13 January 2021, Frontiers in Conservation Science.

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(AU Business Insider) APRA Has Doubled Down On Its Climate Warnings, Urging The Business Community To Take Stock Of The 'Unprecented' Risks

Business Insider - David Adams

Matt Blyth/Getty Images

Key Points

Australia’s business community faces enormous risks if it remains ignorant to the impacts of climate change, APRA says.
The prudential regulator doubled down on its warnings on Wednesday as chair Wayne Byres addressed the Committee for the Economic Development of Australia.
Byres championed APRA’s new pilot climate vulnerability assessment, which will help Australia’s big banks assess their exposure.

Australia’s prudential regulator has doubled down on its climate change warnings, telling business leaders that unpreparedness is the greatest risk the environmental crisis poses to future investments.

Speaking before the Committee for the Economic Development of Australia on Wednesday, Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) chair Wayne Byres said the “unprecedented” risks posed by climate change are “increasingly very real, and immediate.”

The insurance sector is already keenly aware of climate change’s financial impact, Byres said, given the increasing severity of bushfires, flooding and cyclones in populated areas.

But Byres reiterated that further work is required to fully assess how climate change could wreak havoc on the nation’s business community.

Beyond the immediate risks posed by extreme climate variations, APRA has called for a renewed focus on climate-sensitive assets.

Drastic swings in government policy, precedents set by successful climate-based litigation, and shifting community attitudes could cause further havoc.

Byres used the speech to highlight APRA’s new pilot climate vulnerability assessment, which it hopes will help the regulator, and Australia’s big five banks, gain a clearer understanding of those risks.

“Our goal is to better identify and measure the links between climate science and financial risk within the context of existing industry risk assessment frameworks,” he said.

“Without this linkage, climate-related financial risk cannot be effectively considered nor managed by the Australian financial sector.”

The results of that pilot program are likely to be gathered later this year, Byres said.

APRA is hardly the first entity to sound the alarm on climate change and how it threatens Australian businesses.

Deloitte analysis from November 2020 states insufficient action could lead to $3.4 trillion in losses to Australia’s economy by 2070, and with it 880,000 job losses.

It is not all doom and gloom, however.

Byres said APRA’s draft prudential practice guide, revealed last Thursday, will also tune Australia’s business community into the “opportunities that a changing climate will generate, as new investment is needed, new technologies emerge, and economies and new businesses grow.”

In his address, Byres also said damaging cultural issues in the financial services industry and the threat of cyber attacks remain key concerns for APRA through 2021.

Even so, it appears APRA believes the heat is on.

“To sum up, our work on climate risks reflects our preventative, prudential role,” Byres added.

“Financial institutions exist to take risks, and our role is to make sure those risks – from whatever source – are identified, measured, monitored and (most importantly) managed.

“Climate risks pose some unique challenges, but the broad objectives for APRA are no different.”

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