Lethal Heating: 05/26/21

26/05/2021

(UK The Conversation) Five Satellite Images That Show How Fast Our Planet Is Changing

The Conversation - Jonathan Bamber

Stocktrek Images, Inc. / Alamy

Author

Jonathan Bamber is Professor of Physical Geography, University of Bristol.

You have probably seen satellite images of the planet through applications like Google Earth. These provide a fascinating view of the surface of the planet from a unique vantage point and can be both beautiful to look at and useful aids for planning.

But satellite observations can provide far more insights than that. In fact, they are essential for understanding how our planet is changing and responding to global heating and can do so much more than just “taking pictures”.

It really is rocket science and the kind of information we can now obtain from what are called Earth observation satellites is revolutionising our ability to carry out a comprehensive and timely health check on the planetary systems we rely on for our survival.

We can measure changes in sea level down to a single millimetre, changes in how much water is stored in underground rocks, the temperature of the land and ocean and the spread of atmospheric pollutants and greenhouse gases, all from space.

Here I have selected five striking images that illustrate how Earth observation data is informing climate scientists about the changing characteristics of the planet we call home.

1. The sea level is rising – but where?

The sea is rising quickly – but not evenly. ESA/CLS/LEGOS, CC BY-SA LARGE IMAGE

Sea level rise is predicted to be one of the most serious consequences of global heating: under the more extreme “business-as-usual” scenario, a two-metre rise would flood 600 million people by the end of this century. The pattern of sea surface height change, however, is not uniform across the oceans.

This image shows mean sea level trends over 13 years in which the global average rise was about 3.2mm a year. But the rate was three or four times faster in some places, like the south western Pacific to the east of Indonesia and New Zealand, where there are numerous small islands and atolls that are already very vulnerable to sea level rise.

Meanwhile in other parts of the ocean the sea level has barely changed, such as in the Pacific to the west of North America.

2. Permafrost is thawing

Source: ESA LARGE IMAGE

Permafrost is permanently frozen ground and the vast majority of it lies in the Arctic.

It stores huge quantities of carbon but when it thaws, that carbon is released as CO₂ and an even more potent greenhouse gas: methane. Permafrost stores about 1,500 billion tonnes of carbon – twice as much as in the whole of the atmosphere – and it is incredibly important that carbon stays in the ground.

This animation combines satellite, ground-based measurements of soil temperature and computer modelling to map the permafrost temperature at depth across the Arctic and how it is changing with time, giving an indication of where it is thawing.

3. Lockdown cleans Europe’s skies

Source: ESA LARGE IMAGE

Nitrogen dioxide is an atmospheric pollutant that can have serious health impacts, especially for those who are asthmatic or have weakened lung function, and it can increase the acidity of rainfall with damaging effects on sensitive ecosystems and plant health. A major source is from internal combustion engines found in cars and other vehicles.

This animation shows the difference in NO₂ concentrations over Europe before national pandemic-related lockdowns began in March 2020 and just after. The latter shows a dramatic reduction in concentration over major conurbations such as Madrid, Milan and Paris.

4. Deforestation in the Amazon

Credits: ESA/USGS/Deimos Imaging

Tropical forests have been described as the lungs of the planet, breathing in CO₂ and storing it in woody biomass while exhaling oxygen. Deforestation in Amazonia has been in the news recently because of deregulation and increased forest clearing in Brazil but it had been taking place, perhaps not so rapidly, for decades.

This animation shows dramatic loss of rainforest in the western Brazilian state of Rondonia between 1986 and 2010, as observed by satellites.

5. A megacity-sized iceberg

Source: ESA LARGE IMAGE

The Antarctic Ice Sheet contains enough frozen water to raise global sea level by 58 metres if it all ended up in the ocean. The floating ice shelves that fringe the continent act as a buffer and barrier between the warm ocean and inland ice but they are vulnerable to both oceanic and atmospheric warming.

This animation shows the break-off of a huge iceberg dubbed A-74, captured by satellite radar images that have the advantage they can “see” through clouds and operate day or night and are thus unaffected by the 24 hours of darkness that occurs during the Antarctic winter. The iceberg that forms is 1,270 km² in area which is about the same size as Greater London.

These examples illustrate just a few ways in which satellite data are providing unique, global observations of key components of the climate system and biosphere that are essential for our understanding of how the planet is changing. We can use this data to monitor those changes and improve models used to predict future change.

In the run up to the vitally important UN climate conference, COP26 in Glasgow this November, colleagues and I have produced a briefing paper to highlight the role Earth observation satellites will play in safeguarding the climate and other systems that we rely on to make this beautiful, fragile planet habitable.

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(UK The Conversation) Climate Change: How Bad Could The Future Be If We Do Nothing?

The Conversation - Mark Maslin

Lumppini/Shutterstock

Author

Mark Maslin FRGS is a Professor of Earth System Science at University College London.
This article is based on Mark Maslin’s latest book, How to Save Our Planet: The Facts.

The climate crisis is no longer a looming threat – people are now living with the consequences of centuries of greenhouse gas emissions.

But there is still everything to fight for. How the world chooses to respond in the coming years will have massive repercussions for generations yet to be born.

In my book How to Save Our Planet, I imagine two different visions of the future. One in which we do very little to address climate change, and one in which we do everything possible.

This is what the science suggests those very different realities could look like.

Year 2100: the nightmare scenario

The 21st century draws to a close without action having been taken to prevent climate change. Global temperatures have risen by over 4°C. In many countries, summer temperatures persistently stay above 40°C. Heatwaves with temperatures as high as 50°C have become common in tropical countries.

Every summer, wildfires rage across every continent except Antarctica, creating plumes of acrid smoke that make breathing outdoors unbearable, causing an annual health crisis.

Ocean temperatures have risen dramatically. After repeated bleaching events, Australia’s Great Barrier Reef has been officially declared dead.

Tropical coral reefs are vulnerable to rising ocean temperatures. Rich Carey/Shutterstock

Frequent and prolonged droughts torment vast swathes of the Earth’s land. The deserts of the world have expanded, displacing many millions of people. Around 3.5 billion live in areas where water demand exceeds what’s available.

Air pollution has a new major cause outside the traffic-choked cities: dust whipped up from now-barren farmland.

The Arctic is free of sea ice every summer. Average temperatures in the far north have risen by over 8°C as a result. The Greenland and Western Antarctic ice sheets have started to melt, releasing a huge amount of freshwater into the oceans.

Most mountain glaciers have completely melted. Skiing is now a predominantly indoor sport which takes place on giant artificial slopes. Most of the Himalayan plateau’s ice has disappeared, reducing the flows of the Indus, Ganges, Brahmaputra and Yamuna rivers which over 600 million people rely on for plentiful water.

The extra heat in the ocean has caused it to expand. Combined with water from melting ice sheets, sea levels have risen by more than one metre. Many major cities, including Hong Kong, Rio de Janeiro and Miami, are already flooded and uninhabitable. The Maldives, the Marshall Islands, Tuvalu and many other small island nations have been abandoned.

Many coastal and river areas are regularly flooded, including the Nile Delta, the Rhine valley and Thailand. Over 20% of Bangladesh is permanently under water.

Winter storms are more energetic and unleash more water, causing widespread wind damage and flooding each year.

Tropical cyclones have become stronger and affect tens of millions of people every year. Mega-cyclones, like 2013’s Typhoon Haiyan, have become more common, with sustained wind speeds of over 200 mph.

Typhoon Haiyan was one of the most intense tropical cyclones on record. Ymphotos/Shutterstock

South-east Asian monsoons have become more intense and unpredictable, bringing either too much or too little rain to each region, affecting the lives of over three billion people.

Food and water insecurity has increased around the world, threatening the health and wellbeing of billions of people. Extreme heat and humidity in the tropics and subtropics has increased the number of days that it is impossible to work outside tenfold – slashing farm productivity.

Extreme weather in temperate regions like Europe has made food production highly unpredictable. Half of the land devoted to agriculture in the past is now unusable, and the capacity of the rest to grow food differs widely from season to season. Crop yields are at their lowest levels since the middle of the 20th century.

Fish stocks have collapsed. The acidity of the ocean has increased by 125%. The ocean food chain has collapsed in some regions as the small marine organisms that form its base struggle to make calcium carbonate shells and so survive in the more acidic waters.

Despite advances in medical sciences, deaths from tuberculosis, malaria, cholera, diarrhoea and respiratory illnesses are at their highest levels in human history. Extreme weather events – from heat waves and droughts to storms and floods – are causing large loss of life and leaving millions of people homeless. Disease epidemics have plagued the century, spreading among populations beleaguered by widespread poverty and vulnerability.

Year 2100: humanity rises to the challenge

This is what our planet could look like if we do everything in our power to contain climate change.

Global temperatures rose to 1.5°C by 2050 and remained there for the rest of the century. Fossil fuels have been replaced by renewable energy. Over a trillion trees have been planted, sucking carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. The air is cleaner than it has been since before the industrial revolution.

Cities have been restructured to provide all-electric public transport and vibrant green spaces. Many new buildings have a photoelectric skin which generates solar energy and green roofs which cool the cities, making them a more pleasant place to live.

High-speed electric trains reaching 300 mph link many of the world’s major cities. Intercontinental flights still run, using large and efficient planes running on synthetic kerosene that’s made by combining water and carbon dioxide sucked directly from the atmosphere.

Urban life must become greener, with cleaner air and zero-carbon public transport. Yyama/Shutterstock

Global diets have shifted away from meat. Farming efficiency has greatly improved during the transition from industrial-scale meat production to plant-based sustenance, creating more land to rewild and reforest.

Half of the Earth is dedicated to restoring the natural biosphere and its ecological services. Elsewhere, fusion energy is finally set to work at scale providing unlimited clean energy for the people of the 22nd century.

Two very different futures. The outcome your children and grandchildren will live with depends on what decisions are made today. Happily, the solutions I propose are win-win, or even win-win-win: they reduce emissions, improve the environment and make people healthier and wealthier overall.

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(AU ABC) Australian Conservation Foundation Wins Federal Court Challenge Against Adani And Environment Minister

ABC News - Talissa Siganto

Environmental advocates have won a court challenge against Adani's proposed water use at its coal mine in central Queensland. (ABC News)

Key Points

Federal Court judge Melissa Perry ruled the Department of Environment "fell into legal error"
The scheme proposed building a pipeline to pump water into Adani's Carmichael coal mine
Environmental advocates say the ruling is "a great win" for farmers and regional communities that depend on water

Environmental advocates have won a legal challenge against the federal government and mining giant Adani, over its proposed water use at its coal mine in central Queensland.

The Australian Conservative Foundation (ACF) took the Environment Minister to the Federal Court last year, arguing it made an "error of law" when it assessed the planned North Galilee Water Scheme in 2019.

The scheme proposed creating a water pipeline, pump station infrastructure and the expansion of an existing dam catchment, which would then pump water to Adani's Carmichael mining project.

Lawyers for ACF argued the department should have applied the "water trigger" provision, which falls under the Commonwealth environment protection legislation when assessing the planned scheme.

The trigger weighs up the impacts of coal seam gas and large coal mining developments on rivers.

'A big plumbing project'

During a hearing last October, Neil Williams SC, argued the water extraction was associated with coal mining activity, and therefore the minister should have considered all adverse impacts the action would have.

Stephen Lloyd SC, who is acting for Adani Infrastructure, said because the company was a subsidiary of Adani Mining, its actions should be treated separately.

Mr Lloyd also referred to it as a "big plumbing project", which does not seek approval to take water.

The proposed scheme would pump water to Adani's Carmichael mine in Queensland's Galilee Basin. (Twitter: Adani Australia)

"We are extracting water to be supplied to a coal miner … [mining is] not part of my client's actions," Mr Lloyd told the court. Today, a Federal Court judge ruled in favour of ACF, granting a judicial review of the minister's decision to bypass the legislation.

In her published reasons, Justice Melissa Perry said the minister's delegate erred in his construction of definitions of sections of the relevant act and therefore "fell into legal error".

"Contrary to the delegates view, an action will involve a large coal mining development for the purposes of the water trigger controlling provisions if the action is so closely associated with the mining of coal as to be integral to it," she said.

Justice Perry also ordered the defendants pay the environmental group's legal costs.

'A great win' for water protection

In a statement, the ACF Chief Executive Officer Kelly O'Shanassy said it was a "great win" for the protection of water.

"It's a win for regional communities and farmers who depend on reliable flows of river water in our drought-prone landscape," she said.

Ms O'Shanassy said the judgement would set a "new precedent".

"This decision will apply to other potential water sources for the Carmichael mine," she said.

"We expect the federal government to properly apply the law."

A spokeswoman for Bravus Mining and Resources, formerly Adani, said it would carefully consider the judgement.

"We will now consider our options on the progression of the North Galilee Water Scheme and how we would like to proceed," it said in a statement.

The statement also said, regardless of the ruling, construction of the Carmichael Coal Mine and Rail Project was "well underway".

"Importantly, the North Galilee Water Scheme project is not required for these construction activities," the statement said.

"We have also secured water for the operational phase that does not require the North Galilee Water Scheme."

In a statement, the federal government said the Department of Environment "will closely consider the decision before making any comment".

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(Reuters) Greta Thunberg Aims To Change How Food Is Produced

Reuters

'Our relationship with nature is broken'- Thunberg

Swedish climate activist Greta Thunberg has set her sights on changing how the world produces and consumes food in order to counteract a trio of threats: carbon emissions, disease outbreaks and animal suffering.

In a video posted on Twitter on Saturday, Thunberg said the environmental impact of farming as well as disease outbreaks such as COVID-19, which is believed to have originated from animals, would be reduced by changing how food was produced.

"Our relationship with nature is broken. But relationships can change," Thunberg said in the video marking the International Day of Biological Diversity.

A focus on agriculture and linking the climate crisis to health pandemics is a new angle for Thunberg who has typically focused her ire on policy-makers and carbon emissions from fossil fuels.

"The climate crisis, ecological crisis and health crisis, they are all interlinked," she said.

Swedish climate activist Greta Thunberg talks to the media before meeting with EU environment ministers in Brussels, Belgium, March 5, 2020. REUTERS/Johanna Geron

Thunberg said the spillover of diseases from animals to humans was caused by farming methods, adding that a move to a plant-based diet could save up to 8 billion tonnes of CO2 each year.

The World Health Organization has said the coronavirus was probably transmitted from bats to humans through another animal, while scientists say 60% of the infectious human diseases that emerged from 1990 to 2004 came from animals.

Meanwhile, demand for alternatives to regular meat is surging worldwide due to concerns about health, animal welfare and the environment.

More than two dozen firms are testing lab-grown fish, beef and chicken, hoping to break into an unproven segment of the alternative meat market, which Barclays estimates could be worth $140 billion by 2029.

The Global Center on Adaptation, which works to accelerate climate resilience, said in January climate change could depress global food production by up to 30%, while rising seas and more intense storms could force hundreds of millions of people in coastal cities out of their homes.

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